A Numerical Study on the Winter Monsoon and Cold Surge over East Asia

By using the improved regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）, a numerical study has been undertaken for the East Asia region over a period of 5 years （1998-2002） in an effort to evaluate the model＇s ability to reproduce the winter monsoon conditions that were observed. The results showed that the model can successfully simulate the basic characteristics of the winter monsoon circulations, including the location and intensity of the cold-surface, high-pressure system, as well as the wind patterns and the intensity of the winter monsoon. The simulated occurrence frequency and regions of the cold surge were consistent with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution over China was consistent with the observations collected in South China. The features of the simulated moisture transport were also in good agreement with the observations that were derived from the NCEP reanalysis data, indicating that moisture transport coming from the Bay of Bengal trough plays a crucial role in supplying moisture needed for precipitation in South China. In addition, the moisture transport coming from the near-equatorial west-Pacific was also important. These two branches of moisture transport converged in South China, as a prerequisite for occurrence of the precipitation that was observed there. Heat budgets have shown that the development of a heat sink over the East Asian continent was remarkable and its thermal contrast relative to the neighboring seas was the important forcing factor for the winter monsoon activity. The simulation also indicated that the significant differences in circulation patterns and rainfalls during the winters of 1997/98 and 1998/99 were affected by cold and warm ENSO events, respectively. The above analysis demonstrated the model＇s ability to simulate the East Asian winter monsoon.     

东亚地震各向异性——2006年西太平洋地球物理会议专题介绍

2006年7月24—27日在北京召开了2006年西太平洋地球物理会议,本文简介了这次会议的概况,介绍了东亚地震各向异性专题中的最新研究进展。     

东亚土地覆盖对ENSO事件的响应特征

对1982—1993年气候年际变化的强信号——ENSO进行了确认及再分类。以美国地质调查局EROS中心提供的AVHRR 8km NDVI为数据源，应用地理信息系统技术，计算了1982—1993年每年夏季(5—9月)NDVI平均影像。在此基础上用数据断面分析法对ENSO年东亚地区土地覆盖的空间分布进行了分析，再用主成分分析法对同一时间序列NDVI平均影像进行了运算，发现其第7主成分影像所反映的土地覆盖分布与数据断面分析法所反映的结果是一致的。对此，进一步分析了第7主成分的特征向量与代表ENSO变化特征的南方涛动指数(SOI)之间的关系，进而，对ENSO驱动下的东亚地区土地覆盖年际变化的空间分布特征进行了总结。     

TRACE-P期间硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐气溶胶的模拟研究

结合最新评估的东亚地区 1°× 1°污染源资料 ,利用由区域大气模式系统 (RAMS)和区域大气质量模式系统 (CMAQ)耦合的空气质量模式系统 ,对东亚地区 2 0 0 1年春季气溶胶的输送及其化学转化过程进行了研究。为了检验模式系统的模拟效果 ,我们将模拟的硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐气溶胶的浓度与TRACE -P观测期间获取的观测值进行了比较。比较结果显示 ,模拟值与观测值具有相当好的一致性 ,模式很好地反映了气溶胶浓度的分布特征和变化规律 ,再现了许多观测到的重要特征。模拟结果表明 ,中国区域硫酸盐气溶胶浓度高值主要是人为排放的二氧化硫造成的 ,10 0°E以东的中国广大地区的硫酸盐气溶胶柱含量超过了 6mg·m- 2 ,最高值达到 2 4mg·m- 2 ,柱含量 >16mg·m- 2 的区域延伸到中国近海的广大海域。东亚地区的人类活动不仅使污染地区气溶胶柱含量显著增加 ,而且使近海无源区的广大海域的污染加重。本模式系统的建立为今后进一步研究区域大气污染物的变化机理提供了有效的手段。     

华北和西北区干湿年间水汽场及东亚夏季风的对比分析

为了更好地理解华北及西北地区的夏季降水气候，我们利用NCEP的再分析格点资料等，对华北和西北两区干，湿年（月）的水汽场及夏季风状况作了对比分析，主要结论是：（1）近50年来华北和西北区东部明显干旱化，这可能与同期内东亚夏季风强度趋弱，大气可降水量逐渐减少有关；（2）两地区干，湿年（月）间气柱可降水量差别明显；（3）两地区干，湿年（月）的夏季风，水汽输送通道的位置及强度，以及水汽通量的辐散辐合情况均不同；（4）高原与太平洋间的海陆温差指数及东亚夏季风指数（SMI）对表征东亚夏季风的季节变化及夏季风强度的年际变化有一定的能力，冬春季高原与太平洋间的海陆温差对其后东亚夏季风的强弱及西北和华北区的干湿状况有部分指示意义；作西北区夏季降水预报时要注意四川盆地的水汽场及广元－汉中一带，以及闽，台和两广的水汽输送状况。     

末次冰期东亚冰川规模与冰川进退异时性问题

1 IntroductionIthas been accepted thatthe glacialextentin the early stage w as largerthan thatin the late stagein Eastern A sia during the Last G laciation and w as different from Europe and N orth A m erica(Li, 1992; Cui et al., 2000). M any scholars hav…     

近百年中印缅热点的强度变化及其对气候的影响

本文给出了中印缅热点的定义、区域及其强度变化指标(直接指标和间接指标),指出了热点强度的变化与天文、地球因素的关系,即太阳活动强时,地球自转快,热点活跃,反之亦然.热点强度的月际变化与东亚地区的气温、降水场变化关系密切,在强地热释放期间,东亚地区的气温、降水场呈围绕热点区的平面波状分布,且同向等距.地热涡列的相干共振是引起我国局部地区大洪水的必要条件之一.     

梅雨期及其前后东亚地区的径向环流结构

本文分析了1983年江淮流域入梅前、梅雨期以及出梅后东亚地区各期平均的径向环流结构及其演变特征。在不同时期，印度热带季风环流和东亚热带及副热带季风环流具有显著差异。研究指出，江淮流域梅雨是亚洲夏季三个季风系统相互作用的结果，是东亚副热带季风系统中径向经向环流上升支中的产物，同时又与其它两个季风系统密切相关，梅雨结束则与印度热带季风环流减弱南撤、西太平洋高压加强西伸、东亚副热带季风环流北上有关。     

冬季东亚主要行星尺度环流分量的时空特征及其相互行用

本文采用一种复经验正交函数分析方法和滤波技术，对1978-79年冬季全球冬季风实验资料系列FGGE—Ⅲb进行分析，光其对东亚地区时闻尺度10-20天的主要行星尺度环流分量进行分解，结果表明影响气压和厚度场的决定性因子是冷季风潮，受季风潮影响200百帕上无辐散风u中。第一模态以1—2天滞后沿经向和纬向有类似于季风潮的传播；季风潮振动导致局地经向环流相应变化，以无旋风Vx第一模态表示的Hadley环流几乎无经向传播但有明显的纬向传播，并在传播过程中加强；热带对于副热带存在反馈并通过u中第二模态实现。在急流入口处ux，第二模态表示欢级环流的存在．其水平尺度约20个纬距。     

Simulation of Tropospheric Ozone with MOZART-2： An Evaluation Study over East Asia

Climate changes induced by human activities have attracted a great amount of attention. With this, a coupling system of an atmospheric chemistry model and a climate model is greatly needed in China for better understanding the interaction between atmospheric chemical components and the climate. As the first step to realize this coupling goal, the three-dimensional global atmospheric chemistry transport model MOZART-2 (the global Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2) coupled with CAM2 (the Community Atmosphere Model, version 2) is set up and the model results are compared against observations obtained in East Asia in order to evaluate the model performance. Comparison of simulated ozone mixing ratios with ground level observations at Minamitorishima and Ryori and with ozonesonde data at Naha and Tateno in Japan shows that the observed ozone concentrations can be reproduced reasonably well at Minamitorishima but they tend to be slightly overestimated in winter and autumn while underestimated a little in summer at Ryori. The model also captures the general features of surface CO seasonal variations quite well, while it underestimates CO levels at both Minamitorishima and Ryori. The underestimation is primarily associated with the emission inventory adopted in this study. Compared with the ozonesonde data, the simulated vertical gradient and magnitude of ozone can be reasonably well simulated with a little overestimation in winter, especially in the upper troposphere. The model also generally captures the seasonal, latitudinal and altitudinal variations in ozone concentration. Analysis indicates that the underestimation of tropopause height in February contributes to the overestimation of winter ozone in the upper and middle troposphere at Tateno.