震源系统小震调制比(rm)和异常面积(Srm)起伏加剧的时空特征与强震的中、短期预报

本文对强震前震源系统的调制比ｒｍ和调制比异常面积Ｓｒｍ随时间变化的起伏加剧现象进行回顾性研究，得到下列研究结果：（１）强震前近源区以及中强震前近源区大多出现调制比ｒｍ的起伏加剧，并大多在起伏频次达三次时有大震或中强震发生。（２）大多数中、强地震前ｒｍ异常面积Ｓｒｍ围绕震源区呈现由小至大、由大至小的过程，因此引入最小异常面积Ｓｒｍ和最大异常面积Ｓｒｍ之比γ作为中、短期预报指标，根据统计得到异常指标［     

汶川8.0级大地震的长波辐射征象

文中分析了汶川8.0级地震发生前, 卫星遥感射出长波辐射(OLR)信息场的中期(年)、 短期(月)和临震(日)时空分布及变化特征。 通过计算发现该地震震中区附近的OLR信息有异常增强的现象, 这种现象可作为诊断强震蕴育地区的一种指征。     

Phosphorus Buildup and Release Risk Associated with Agricultural Intensification in the Estuarine Sediments of Chaohu Lake Valley,Eastern China

Phosphorus (P) accumulation and the risk of P release were studied in the estuarine sediments of the Chaohu Lake Valley in Eastern China. Rapid agricultural intensification has occurred in this area since the 1980s, resulting in the extensive use of phosphate fertilizers. This extensive use of phosphate has affected P processes throughout the valley and resulted in the total phosphorus (TP) contents in the substrates and surface sediments increasing from 374 to 537 mg/kg, on average. Of all the forms of P evaluated in this study, residual P (Res‐P) was present at the highest levels and accounted for 19.8–74.0% of the TP. Conversely, the lowest contents were observed for KCl‐extracted P (KCl‐P), which accounted for only 0.602% of the TP. Additionally, aluminum/iron‐bound P (NaOH‐Pi), which accounted for 16.0–53.1% of the TP, was an important factor that caused the TP to increase due to long‐term P fertilization. However, calcium‐bound P (Ca‐P) was maintained at a relatively stable level. Furthermore, the degree of P saturation (DPS) and the P‐induced lake eutrophication risk index (ERI) were investigated to determine the risk of release of P from the sediments. The average DPS and ERI values were found to range from 3.92–21.4% and from 12.6–33.6%, respectively. These results suggest that almost half of the estuarine sediments posed a potential risk of eutrophication. Moreover, these findings indicate that estuarine sediments that have been enriched with P are likely the sources of P that lead to the formation of algal blooms in Chaohu Lake.     

Förnyelse av äldre arbetsområden i Göteborg

Törnqvist, Anders: Förnyelse av äldre arbetsområden i Göteborg. Geografisk Tidsskrift 83: 60–64. May 1., 1983.

A recently started research and development project at Chalmers Institute of Technology in cooperation with the City of Gothenburg is presented. Background research on the physical and economic status of old industrial districts in Sweden shows the need for renewal. Difficulties and possibilities are analysed. A two-phase negotiation strategy involving the landowners, the firms, the employees and local government branches is outlined.     

Pesticides in export and domestic agriculture: Reconsidering market orientation and pesticide use in Costa Rica

The environmental impact of agro-export production in developing countries remains an important research topic. The political economy-inspired literature on developing country agro-exports maintains that export crops are pesticide intensive – or, more generally, environmentally destructive – while local and national market crops are less pesticide intensive, or environmentally benign. If used to draw conclusions about the impact of national market versus export market expansion, this view has significant limitations, most importantly the comparison of high-commodity value export crops with low-commodity value crops for national market. To overcome this and other limitations of prior analyses, this paper addresses the question: how does market orientation influence pesticide intensity where the same crops are grown for both the national market and for export? Data from a survey of Costa Rican vegetable farmers are used to compare pesticide intensity of 27 vegetable crops, five of which are produced for both national and export markets. The general pattern that emerges is that national market vegetables are more pesticide intensive than export vegetables in the area. Yet, controlling more for the crop variable is important, and specific comparisons of the five vegetables grown for both markets – carrot, chayote, corn, green beans, and squash – illustrate that market orientation alone does not determine pesticide intensity, but that it is jointly influenced by regulatory risk, crop value, and pest susceptibility, among other factors. Continued attention to both political economy and ecological processes in “second nature” will allow political ecology to make important contributions to understanding pesticide problems and implementing agroecological solutions.     

超强台风威马逊快速增强及大尺度环流特征

超强台风威马逊（1409）登陆前发生快速增强现象,并成为我国有气象记录以来的最强登陆台风。该文利用中国气象局台风最佳路径资料、NCEP FNL分析资料、NOAA高分辨率逐日最优插值海表温度融合分析资料和天气学、动力学诊断分析方法,分析这次罕见的台风快速增强过程。研究结果表明:威马逊（1409）快速增强与持续有利背景场有关,如海温异常偏暖、低空急流和越赤道气流的增强、环境风垂直切变维持较小、高层维持较强流出气流等。尤其是台风下游大气处于热力不稳定,在其他有利因子的共同作用下,台风移入热力不稳定环境场中,有利于台风环流内部对流活动的增强和对流凝结潜热效率的增加,从而有利于台风强度增加。动能诊断方程表明:威马逊（1409）快速增强期间低层动能主要来源于风穿越等压线所作的功,这与台风环流内强降雨释放的对流凝结潜热驱动台风中心附近上升、外围下沉的垂直环流圈的加强紧密联系。     

Open Up and Say “Baa”: Examining the Stomachs of Ruminant Livestock and the Real Subsumption of Nature

ABSTRACT

This article examines the stomachs of ruminant livestock as a site of biotechnological intervention and analyzes efforts to reengineer ruminant digestion as a case of the real subsumption of nature. The livestock industry’s capacity to increase production is constrained by available grazing land and concern about environmental consequences of ever-increasing livestock numbers. Ruminants are also a significant source of greenhouse gases and the mitigation of methane is a recognized priority within the global climate framework. The pursuit of “sustainable intensification” and new technological fixes have been identified as preferred responses to these constraints. The case of ruminant methane calls into question assumptions about the primacy of accumulation, rather than regulation, in driving the real subsumption of nature. The pursuit of technological fixes within biologically based industries may be motivated by a need to stabilize the conditions of production, and regulation itself can provide an impetus for the real subsumption of nature.     

人工智能新技术在国家气象中心台风业务中的应用探索

基于2005—2020年的中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集以及葵花（Himawari-8）和风云（FY-4）卫星云图数据,结合人工智能新技术,将深度学习模型应用于台风涡旋识别、台风定位定强、台风强度突变预测等方面,具体内容主要包括基于深度图像目标检测的台风涡旋识别模型、基于图像分类和检索的台风智能定强模型以及融合时空序列特征的台风快速增强判别模型,构建了一套台风智能监测和预报系统。通过对2020年全年样本进行了测试,结果显示:该系统对强热带风暴级及以上强度的台风涡旋正确识别率达90%以上,台风强度估测的MAE和RMSE分别为3.8 m/s和5.05 m/s,对全年独立样本强度快速加强预测的综合准确率达到65.3%,该系统实现了业务上利用高时空分辨率卫星图像实时对热带气旋进行自动识别、定位定强和智能追踪的功能,为进一步提高我国台风监测和预报预警的能力提供了有利支撑。      

SSM/I Measured Microwave Brightness Temperature (TB's), Anomalies of TB's,and Their Relationship to Typhoon Intensification

The SSM/I microwave Brightness Temperatures (TB's) in the frequency domains of 85 and 19 GHz gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)-F8 satellite form the basis of this research. These data are related to 27 map times of 13 typhoons of the 1987 season, one typhoon of the 1988 season and one cyclone in the Indian Ocean in 1987. The TB's disclosed certain characteristics of typhoons unavailable through conventional infrared (IR) imagery means.Brightness Temperatures were chosen to delineate the typhoon characteristics rather than the derived geophysical parameters such as rainfall or surface winds because the TB's have better resolution. The footprint size of the 85 GHz TB is 15 × 13 km while a derived (through algorithms based on regression) quantity such as rainfall has a much higher footprint size. The relatively large footprint size of rainfall results, because of using the 19 GHz channel which has a larger footprint size of 69 × 43 km.The mean 85 GHz (vertically polarized, V) TB's of a moving typhoon, particularly those on the left side within 55 km of the center, appear to exhibit a practically usable correlation with the 24 hour intensity. This finding is consistent with some observational studies, which show higher rain rates to occur within the asymmetric eyewalls of developing tropical cyclones. Further stratification of the sample in terms of direction of movement improved the correlation.The TB anomalies were defined in terms of the TB differences between two sections of a typhoon (e.g., between right and left sides or between inner and outer areas). The development of this sort of anomalies represents a relative growth of deep convection close to the center. If there is a good growth, the cyclone is likely to intensify within a short period of time. The anomalies also showed good correlation with the 24-h intensity. The intensity change (24-h intensity – Current Intensity) was also correlated with the 85 GHz V mean TB values, as well as, with 85 GHz V TB anomalies as defined above. Significant correlations ensued. Since these preliminary results are promising, further experimentation with a larger sample is suggested. Nevertheless, the scientist interested in natural hazards would find the current results valuable in the problem of typhoon intensification.     

Farmers and fallowing: agricultural change in Kigezi District, Uganda

Focusing on the area of Kigezi, in south-western Uganda, this article examines land use change over a 50-year period. It shows that Kigezi, an area long considered to be suffering the effects of overpopulation, has never suffered the environmental catastrophes that have long been predicted. Instead, research suggests that farmers have successfully managed their land and maintained productivity.