Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Are Global Tide Gauge Data Stationary in Variance?

Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records.     

A preliminary study of carbon system in the East China Sea

In the central part of the East China Sea, the activity of CO₂ in the surface water and total carbonate, pH and alkalinity in the water column were determined in winter and autumn of 1993. The activity of CO₂ in the continental shelf water was about 50 ppm lower than that of surface air. This decrease corresponds to the absorption of about 40 gC/m²/yr of atmospheric CO₂ in the coastal zone or 1 GtC/yr in the global continental shelf, if this rate is applicable to entire coastal seas. The normalized total carbonate contents were higher in the water near the coast and near the bottom. This increase toward the bottom may be due to the organic matter deposited on the bottom. This conclusion is supported by the distribution of pH. The normalized alkalinity distribution also showed higher values in the near-coast water, but in the surface water, indicating the supply of bicarbonate from river water. The residence time of the East China Sea water, including the Yellow Sea water, has been calculated to be about 0.8 yr from the excess alkalinity and the alkalinity input. Using this residence time and the excess carbonate, we can estimate that the amount of dissolved carbonate transported from the coastal zone to the oceanic basin is about 70 gC/m²/yr or 2 GtC/yr/area-of-global-continental-shelf. This also means that the rivers transport carbon to the oceans at a rate of 30 gC/m²/yr of the coastal sea or 0.8 GtC/yr/ area-of-global shelf, the carbon consisting of dissolved inorganic carbonate and terrestrial organic carbon decomposed on the continental shelf.     

Spatial variability in the partial pressures of CO2 in the northern Bering and Chukchi seas

In the summers of 1999 and 2003, the 1st and 2nd Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions measured the partial pressure of CO₂ in the air and surface waters (pCO₂) of the Bering Sea and the western Arctic Ocean. The lowest pCO₂ values were found in continental shelf waters, increased values over the Bering Sea shelf slope, and the highest values in the waters of the Bering Abyssal Plain (BAP) and the Canadian Basin. These differences arise from a combination of various source waters, biological uptake, and seasonal warming. The Chukchi Sea was found to be a carbon dioxide sink, a result of the increased open water due to rapid sea-ice melting, high primary production over the shelf and in marginal ice zones (MIZ), and transport of low pCO₂ waters from the Bering Sea. As a consequence of differences in inflow water masses, relatively low pCO₂ concentrations occurred in the Anadyr waters that dominate the western Bering Strait, and relatively high values in the waters of the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC) in the eastern strait. The generally lower pCO₂ values found in mid-August compared to at the end of July in the Bering Strait region (66–69°N) are attributed to the presence of phytoplankton blooms. In August, higher pCO₂ than in July between 68.5 and 69°N along 169°W was associated with higher sea-surface temperatures (SST), possibly as an influence of the ACC. In August in the MIZ, pCO₂ was observed to increase along with the temperature, indicating that SST plays an important role when the pack ice melts and recedes.     

Persistent volcanic signature observed around Barren Island, Andaman Sea, India

This study delineates the formation of a warm pool (>34°C) of air to the west (downwind) of the active volcano of the Barren Island during October–November 2005. Barren Island is located in the Sumatra–Andaman region, about 135 km east of Port Blair, and lies within the Burma microplate, the southern tip of which experienced a submarine earthquake (M _w 9.3) causing a tsunami in December 2004. Barren Island is the only volcano, which has shown sustained eruptive activity since shortly after the Great Sumatran Earthquake of December 2004. Our observations require further corroboration to relate how submarine earthquakes activate volcanoes and how far these thermal emissions influence climate changes. Because it links global warming and climate changes to the frequent emissions from a volcano activated by submarine earthquakes, this case study is of special interest to the earth-ocean-atmosphere sciences community.     

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX／POSEIDON（T／P）卫星高度计测高资料，对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析，结果表明，1993年1月－2001年6月期间，全球海平面呈现上升的态势；全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为1．2mm/a；海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因，便其对海平面抬升的贡献不到50％。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。     

Validity of sea surface temperature observed with the TRITON buoy under diurnal heating conditions

In order to investigate the validity of buoy-observed sea surface temperature (SST), we installed special instruments to measure near-surface ocean temperature on the TRITON buoy moored at 2.07°N, 138.06°E from 2 to 13 March 2004, in addition to a standard buoy sensor for the regular SST measurement at 1.5-m depth. Large diurnal SST variations were observed during this period, and the variations of the temperatures at about 0.3-m depth could be approximately simulated by a one-dimensional numerical model. However, there was a notable discrepancy between the buoy-observed 1.5-m-depth SST (SST_1.5m) and the corresponding model-simulated temperature only during the daytime when the diurnal rise was large. The evaluation of the heat balance in the sea surface layer showed that the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m in these cases could not be accounted for by solar heating alone. We examined the depth of the SST_1.5m sensor and the near-surface temperature observed from a ship near the buoy, and came to the conclusion that the solar heating of the buoy hull and/or a disturbance in the temperature field around the buoy hull would contribute to the excessive diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m observed with the TRITON buoy. However, the temperature around the hull was not sufficiently homogenized, as suggested in a previous paper. For the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m exceeding 0.5 K, the daytime buoy data became doubtful, through dynamics that remain to be clarified. A simple formula is proposed to correct the unexpected diurnal amplitude of the buoy SST_1.5m.     

大洋碳循环与气候演变的热带驱动

20世纪气候演变研究的最大突破,在于地球轨道变化驱动冰期旋回的米兰柯维奇理论。然而近年来学术界对热带过程和大气CO2浓度变化的研究进展,暴露了传统的轨道驱动理论存在着对低纬区和碳循环在全球气候系统中作用估计不足的严重缺陷。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"大洋碳循环与气候演变的热带驱动"拟以南海与西太平洋暖池的深海记录为依据,进行全球性对比和跨越地球圈层的探索,通过观测分析结果与数值模拟的结合、地质记录与现代过程的结合,检验和论证大洋碳储库长周期变化机制的假说,对于不同时间尺度上低纬过程如何通过碳循环在全球气候环境演变中的作用,实现理论上的突破。同时简要介绍了该项目的目的、科学意义、关键科学问题及预期目标等。     

对我国西南地区河谷深厚覆盖层成因机理的新认识

近年来,在我国水能资源开发过程中,发现各河流现代河床以下普遍堆积厚达数十米甚至上百米的松散堆积物。河谷深厚覆盖层的存在,不仅严重制约了工程坝址的选择,影响相关流域水电资源的开发利用,也给坝工设计带来巨大的困难。由于深厚覆盖层埋藏于现代河床之下,其形成年代一般先于一二级阶地,有悖于河流发育演化的常理,其成因一直令人费解。首次将河谷深切和深厚堆积事件与全球气候变化、海平面升降运动、地壳运动等有机地联系起来,并提出冰期、间冰期全球海平面大幅度升降,是导致河流深切成谷并形成深厚堆积的主要原因的新观点。在此基础上,引入层序地层学原理,从理论上较好地解释了全球气候变化导致海平面和河流侵蚀基准面大幅变化,并产生河谷深切和深厚堆积的原因和过程。最后,进一步将沿河大型古滑坡的孕育和发生与河谷深切事件相联系,提出沿河大型古滑坡是在河谷深切期因前缘临空较好而形成的新观点,从而对沿河古滑坡前缘剪出口高程往往低于现代河床数十米的原因给出了较合理的解释。     

北京市地理空间框架基准体系建设与应用

重点介绍了北京市地理空间框架基准体系的实现过程,包括空间坐标基准、高程基准、似大地水准面和全球卫星定位测绘服务系统建设。基准体系检测结果表明,北京市地理空间框架基准体系达到设计要求,在国内率先实现了测绘基准的现代化建设。