Evaluation of Three Numerical Weather Prediction Models for Short and Medium Range Agrohydrological Applications

The skill and accuracy of the quantitative precipitation forecasts by CCAM, UM and NCEP-MRF models are verified using various statistical scores at the Mgeni catchment in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The CCAM model is capable of identifying a rainfall event, but with a tendency of under-estimating its magnitude. The UM model is capable of distinguishing rainy days from non-rainy days, but with a significant over-estimation of rainfall amount. There is no significant difference between the 1 and 2 day lead time UM forecasts. Statistical comparisons show that there is an acceptable skill in the CCAM forecasts, but the forecast skill of the UM model is low and unreliable. The role of the initial hydrological conditions in affecting the accuracy of CCAM and UM streamflows forecasts was significant. The results show that the under-estimation of the CCAM forecasts was reduced from −44% to −10%, while the over-estimation in the UM forecasts was reduced from 291% to only 59% when the ACRU agrohydrological model was initialised with observed rainfalls up to the previous day at each forecast run within the study period. The combined use of the CCAM and UM models by a “weighted averaging” had little effect in improving the skill as it is overshadowed more by the over-estimation of the UM forecasts than the under-estimation of the CCAM forecasts. Results obtained for a continuous period of 92 days showed that the NCEP-MRF rainfall forecasts were significantly over-predicted. The NCEP-MRF rainfall forecast is found to be totally unskillful, although the skill was seen to slightly increase with decreasing lead time.     

Local cerebral blood flow measured by xenon-enhanced CT during cryogenic brain edema and intracranial hypertension in monkeys

We developed a closed-skull model of freeze injury-induced brain edema, a model classically thought to produce vasogenic edema, and observed the natural course of changes in edema and blood flow using xenon-enhanced computed tomography (CT) in five rhesus monkeys before and for up to 6 h post insult. Intracranial pressure (ICP) gradually rose throughout the duration of the experiment. CT scans and CBF images permitted direct observation of the evolution of the lesion and revealed early ischemia in the periphery of the injury zone that progressed over time in association with edema. Frequency histogram analysis of local CBF (ICBF) demonstrated subtle but potentially important changes in distribution of ICBF between and within hemispheres at various times post insult. Changes in ICBF distribution were phasic and dissociated from increases in ICP in the latter stages of injury. The Xe/CT CBF method can be used to evaluate the effects of injury and therapy on CBF in this and other models of acute brain injury.     

A quantitative risk assessment model for Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella associated with consumption of informally marketed milk products in Tigray,Ethiopia

The aim of this work was to collect relevant input data for integration into Monte-Carlo simulation using 10,000 iterations to obtain quantitative estimates of exposure and associated risk to Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella. Higher prevalence rates of S. aureus (54.9 vs. 28.3%) and Salmonella (12.9 vs. 11.1%) were observed for raw milk distributed via collection milk collection centers (MCC) compared to those via dairy farms (DF). Prevalence found for S. aureus in traditionally fermented milk averaged only 3.7%. Although the 90% CI estimated probabilities of exposures to S. aureus due to DF and MCC raw milk consumption at levels higher than the D-R value found were 10.6 and 23.5%, respectively, exposures to Salmonella were within the pathogen's tolerable limit. While annual likely of risk of illness by S. aureus due to DF and MCC raw milk consumptions resulted in up to 24.2 and 48.3% estimated illnesses, respectively, traditionally fermented milk consumption was found very much less risky; and resulted only 2.5% estimated illnesses per-serving-per-year. The corresponding values for Salmonella per-serving-per-year estimated illnesses via raw milk sales are, respectively, 5.72 and 11.41% compared to 1.8 and 4.02% when they come in boiled forms.     

Inspiratory Off-Switch Mediated by Optogenetic Activation of Inhibitory Neurons in the preBötzinger Complex In Vivo

The role of inhibitory neurons in the respiratory network is a matter of ongoing debate. Conflicting and contradicting results are manifold and the question whether inhibitory neurons are essential for the generation of the respiratory rhythm as such is controversial. Inhibitory neurons are required in pulmonary reflexes for adapting the activity of the central respiratory network to the status of the lung and it is hypothesized that glycinergic neurons mediate the inspiratory off-switch. Over the years, optogenetic tools have been developed that allow for cell-specific activation of subsets of neurons in vitro and in vivo. In this study, we aimed to identify the effect of activation of inhibitory neurons in vivo. Here, we used a conditional transgenic mouse line that expresses Channelrhodopsin 2 in inhibitory neurons. A 200 µm multimode optical fiber ferrule was implanted in adult mice using stereotaxic surgery, allowing us to stimulate inhibitory, respiratory neurons within the core excitatory network in the preBötzinger complex of the ventrolateral medulla. We show that, in anesthetized mice, activation of inhibitory neurons by blue light (470 nm) continuously or with stimulation frequencies above 10 Hz results in a significant reduction of the respiratory rate, in some cases leading to complete cessation of breathing. However, a lower stimulation frequency (4–5 Hz) could induce a significant increase in the respiratory rate. This phenomenon can be explained by the resetting of the respiratory cycle, since stimulation during inspiration shortened the associated breath and thereby increased the respiratory rate, while stimulation during the expiratory interval reduced the respiratory rate. Taken together, these results support the concept that activation of inhibitory neurons mediates phase-switching by inhibiting excitatory rhythmogenic neurons in the preBötzinger complex.     

Application of dynamic contributing area for modelling the hydrologic response of the Assiniboine River Basin to a changing climate

The Prairie landscape consists of numerous pothole depressions which produce complex fill-and-spill runoff generation processes that result in intermittent hydrologic connectivity and dynamic contributing areas (DCA). We investigated the effect of including DCA in the modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and its implication on future streamflow projection for the pothole dominated Assiniboine River Basin (ARB). The fill-and-spill processes that lead to DCA were captured using a physically-based approach, with a volumetric threshold to reduce the computational demand. Despite the challenges in accurately simulating prairie pothole hydrology, both in terms of timing and volume of runoff, the modified approach improved streamflow modelling performance, and reduced model uncertainty. Further, we evaluated the effects of representing DCA on projecting future streamflow by using eight statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs, forced with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. End of century projections indicate increases in annual precipitation and temperature across the ARB, with decreasing summer precipitation relative to the 1976–2005 baseline period. Compared to the standard SWAT setup that does not allow for DCA, the modified model was found to be more responsive to climatic change with relatively larger projected increases in seasonal and annual flows at the majority of evaluated stations. This advance in DCA modelling will facilitate longer-term large basin-scale simulations that are more representative for the Prairie region.     

Room temperature synthesis of metal organic framework MOF-2

One of the pioneering metal organic framework material, called MOF-2 and having the formula [Zn₂(BDC)₂], still continues awakening interest amongst the scientific community in spite of its layered character. However, the synthesis methods are either experimentally complicated or in two steps through the transformation of MOF-1. Here, we describe the preparation of a high-quality MOF-2 under more sustainable conditions, including room temperature, absence of any amine or any other pH-controller, partial substitution of the harmful organic solvent (N,N-dimethylformamide) by water, and by simply mixing linker and metal sources, the latter being zinc acetate, carefully selected as a function of their solubility in the solvent mixture. The optimum ratio of Zn(OAc)₂·4H₂O to terephthalic acid (H₂BDC) is 1.74 and H₂O to DMF is 3. MOF-2 [Zn₂(BDC)₂] has been characterized using powder X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, N₂ adsorption/desorption and scanning electron microscopy, all of them supporting the good quality of the material.     

Epidemiological game-theory dynamics of chickenpox vaccination in the USA and Israel

The general consensus from epidemiological game-theory studies is that vaccination coverage driven by self-interest (Nash vaccination) is generally lower than group-optimal coverage (utilitarian vaccination). However, diseases that become more severe with age, such as chickenpox, pose an exception to this general consensus. An individual choice to be vaccinated against chickenpox has the potential to harm those not vaccinated by increasing the average age at infection and thus the severity of infection as well as those already vaccinated by increasing the probability of breakthrough infection. To investigate the effects of these externalities on the relationship between Nash and utilitarian vaccination coverages for chickenpox, we developed a game-theory epidemic model that we apply to the USA and Israel, which has different vaccination programmes, vaccination and treatment costs, as well as vaccination coverage levels. We find that the increase in chickenpox severity with age can reverse the typical relationship between utilitarian and Nash vaccination coverages in both the USA and Israel. Our model suggests that to obtain herd immunity of chickenpox vaccination, subsidies or external regulation should be used if vaccination costs are high. By contrast, for low vaccination costs, improving awareness of the vaccine and the potential cost of chickenpox infection is crucial.     

The xenon-enhanced computed tomography cerebral blood flow method

It has been proposed that one of the primary events in the development of essential hypertension is a growth-related process initiated as early as during fetal development. Differences in kidney size have been observed between most rat models of hypertension and their respective controls. In this study, we analyzed relative kidney size (kidney weight/body wt) in a set of rat recombinant inbred strains (RIS) (N = 27) and their progenitors, the spontaneously hypertensive rat strain (SHR/Ola) and Brown Norway congenic strain (BN.1x), at two different ages, at birth and at 15 weeks. In the progenitors, the relative kidney weight was higher in the hypertensive than in the normotensive strain of both the newborn (P < 0.001) and adult (P < 0.001) animals. In the RIS, a significant correlation was found between the newborn and adult relative kidney weight (r = 0.49, P = 0.01), indicating that the two phenotypes share some of their genetic determinants. A total genome search of newborn and adult relative kidney weight was performed with a total of 453 genetic markers. These analyses revealed several suggestive quantitative trait loci (QTL), some of which were, indeed, significant for both newborn and adult relative kidney weight (such as, D3Mit9 on rat chromosome 3; r = -0.50, P < 0.01; r = -0.47, P < 0.01; respectively). Others, such as the locus on rat chromosome 1 (Rt6; r = -0.43, P < 0.05), were significant only for the adult relative kidney size. This QTL was found in close proximity to a region previously related to susceptibility to hypertensive renal disease in the fawn-hooded rat and, similarly to that study, its effect was found to be independent of blood pressure. Furthermore, a growth pattern of the kidneys after birth, evaluated as the difference between the newborn and adult relative kidney weight, was also subjected to total genome scan. Several suggestive QTL were identified. One of the most significant loci was found at the D1a marker on rat chromosome 17 (r = -0.51, P < 0.01), which was previously related to the determination of adult heart weight in the RIS. In conclusion, the current study demonstrates the usefulness of RIS in studies of hypertension-related phenotypes, some of which are abnormal before the development of high blood pressure. To better understand their role in the pathogenesis of hypertension, studies at different ages are needed, which are uniquely feasible in RIS.     

A Fuzzy-Stochastic Modeling Approach for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis of Coupled Groundwater-Agricultural Systems

The complexity of water resources management increases when decisions about environmental and social issues are considered in addition to economic efficiency. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. In this paper, a new fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision-making approach is proposed for water resources management in which a variety of criteria in terms of economic, environmental and social dimensions are identified and taken into account. The goal is to evaluate multiple conflicting criteria under uncertainties and to rank a set of management alternatives. The methodology uses a simulation-optimization water management model of a strongly interacting groundwater-agriculture system to enumerate criteria based on these bio-physical process interactions. Fuzzy and/or qualitative information regarding the decision-making process for which quantitative data is not available are evaluated in linguistic terms. Afterwards, Monte Carlo simulation is applied to combine these information and to generate a probabilistic decision matrix of management alternatives versus criteria in an uncertain environment. Based on this outcome, total performance values of the management alternatives are calculated using ordered weighted averaging. The proposed approach is applied to a real world example, where excessive groundwater withdrawal from the coastal aquifer for irrigated agriculture has resulted in saltwater intrusion, threatening the economical basis of farmers and associated societal impacts. The analysis has provided potential decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. Furthermore, sensitivity of different inputs to resulting rankings is investigated. It is found that decision makers’ risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield different rankings. The presented approach suits to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management.