Quantifying key uncertainties in the costs of nuclear power

In power system portfolio decisions, cost risk (uncertainty over cost) should be an important consideration, in addition to central estimates of cost. This study quantifies the uncertainty in each of the cost components for nuclear power, and combines them using a Monte Carlo analysis, allowing a direct assessment of cost risk for this technology. This can be used as an input to sophisticated portfolio optimisation modelling tools that take cost risk into account. Levelised cost of energy (LCOE) estimates are also provided here to allow an indicative comparison of the scale of cost risk, compared with other technologies. The most important contributors to cost risk for nuclear power generation are identified to be overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates, the degree of cost escalation over the construction and pre‐construction periods and the duration of those periods. In the absence of cost escalation, the mean LCOE of nuclear power is found to be AU$145/MWh in jurisdictions excluding Asia (or AU$130/MWh if Asian plant costs are included in the distributions), with a standard deviation of AU$62/MWh. However, when cost escalation over construction and pre‐construction periods is included at rates observed during nuclear build programs in France and the USA, the mean LCOE increases to AU$515/MWh, with a standard deviation of AU$2646/MWh. These results indicate that nuclear power costs have an 80% probability of exceeding AU$170/MWh, and a 50% probability of exceeding AU$278/MWh, based upon Monte Carlo analysis. This suggests that for OECD jurisdictions without an established nuclear industry (such as Australia), nuclear power may be comparable in cost with ‘dispatchable’, synchronous renewable alternatives such as concentrating solar thermal. Furthermore, the considerable cost risk associated with nuclear power is a significant disadvantage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential of antimicrobial peptides as biocides

Antimicrobial peptides constitute a diverse class of naturally occurring antimicrobial molecules which have activity against a wide range of pathogenic microorganisms. Antimicrobial peptides are exciting leads in the development of novel biocidal agents at a time when classical antibiotics are under intense pressure from emerging resistance, and the global industry in antibiotic research and development stagnates. This review will examine the potential of antimicrobial peptides, both natural and synthetic, as novel biocidal agents in the battle against multi-drug resistant pathogen infections.     

Trends in the prevalence of smoking in Russia during the transition to a market economy

Background

Changes in smoking, particularly an increase in women, were predicted to follow the aggressive campaigns of multinational tobacco companies in transitional Russia. However, such changes have not yet been demonstrated unequivocally.

Objective

To examine smoking trends by gender, education and area of residence.

Methods

Data from 10 rounds of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (1992–2003), consisting of more than 3000 men and 4000 women in each round, were used. The mean reported ages of first smoking in current smokers were compared between 10‐year birth cohorts.

Results

Between 1992 and 2003, smoking prevalence doubled among women from 6.9% (95% CI 6.3% to 7.6%) to 14.8% (13.9% to 15.7%) and increased among men from 57.4% (95% CI 56.0% to 58.8%) to 62.6% (61.1% to 64.1%). In both sexes, the rise was significantly greater in the least educated, markedly so in women (a doubling vs a 1.5‐fold rise in the most educated). Although prevalence of smoking among women was considerably higher in Moscow and St Petersburg than in rural areas, the dramatic threefold increase in prevalence in rural women was significantly greater than in the main cities (36%, p<0.001). The mean age of first smoking was significantly lower in women born after 1960, but in men it was stable between cohorts.

Conclusions

For the first time, it has been shown unequivocally that smoking among women increased markedly during the transition to a market economy in Russia. The already high prevalence of smoking among men has continued to rise. These changes are likely to reflect the activity of the tobacco industry and provide further evidence of the harms of privatisation. Effective tobacco control policies are urgently needed.The collapse of the Soviet Union led to massive changes in the region''s cigarette industry; state‐owned tobacco monopolies were privatised, and the transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) invested heavily.¹ This led to a massive surge in advertising and a change in distribution strategies, which were shown by tobacco industry documents to be targeted particularly at women, young people and those living in cities, and which were accompanied by a weakening in tobacco control legislation as a result of aggressive lobbying by the industry.^2,3,4,5 Cigarette consumption across the region increased almost exponentially.⁶In Russia alone, the TTCs invested approximately US$1.7 billion between 1992 and 2000, gaining a collective market share of over 60% and increasing by fourfold the production capacity in their newly acquired factories.¹ Various numbers of new brands were introduced; Japan Tobacco International, for example, introduced eight new brands in 1999 alone.⁷ Advertising, which had been non‐existent in Soviet times, escalated massively to promote such brands as an indispensable part of the “western lifestyle”.^8,9 By the mid 1990s, it was estimated that up to 50% of all billboards in Moscow and 75% of plastic bags in Russia carried tobacco advertising;¹⁰ tobacco soon became the product most heavily advertised outdoors, with three major transnationals ranked as the first, second and third heaviest advertisers.¹¹ After the initial targeting of urban areas, industry documents state that the focus was on expanding marketing efforts to other regions of Russia.^12,13 Since the transition, tobacco control policies in Russia have largely been dictated by the tobacco industry. In 1995, for example, a new law on advertising was implemented, based on the industry''s voluntary code of conduct,^14,15 and changes to the federal bill on Limitation of Tobacco Consumption, signed in 2001, were described by the St Petersburg Times as “a textbook demonstration of the lobbyist''s art”.¹⁶Although the tobacco epidemic in men in Russia, as in the rest of the former Soviet Union (FSU), is well established,¹⁷ and smoking rates among men have been high for decades, rates have failed to decline, as models of the tobacco epidemic would predict.^18,19 In women, the tobacco epidemic is at an earlier stage. Survey data show far higher rates of smoking among young than among older women, particularly in countries targeted by the TTCs, which, combined with comparisons with historical data, suggest an increase in smoking rates among women. However, such an increase is yet to be established unequivocally, as previous efforts to examine these and other trends in the tobacco epidemic have been limited by the lack of truly comparable data and the small sample size of repeated surveys.^19,20In addition to the marked changes in the region''s tobacco industry, the need to address these research gaps is underlined by the fact that the accumulated burden of tobacco‐related disease among men <75 years of age in the FSU is the highest in the world.²¹ More than half of Russian men smoke,^19,20 and estimates indicate that smoking presently accounts for nearly half of male deaths and just <4% of female deaths.²² This work will also further efforts to understand the impacts of privatisation of the tobacco industry, which continues to be promoted by the International Monetary Fund.^4,18In this paper, we used data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), a large panel study comprising data collected in 10 rounds between 1992 and 2003, to study trends in smoking and to explore in detail the impact of the entry of TTCs on smoking habits. We hypothesised, based largely on the actions of the privatised tobacco companies now active in Russia, that smoking among women would increase, the age of smoking uptake would fall, and that rates of smoking among women in rural areas would tend to increase towards those already observed in urban areas. In men, we predicted little change in smoking rates, but an increase in educational inequalities in smoking.     

The Living Tomorrow Project: how Philip Morris has used a Belgian tourist attraction to promote ventilation approaches to the control of second hand smoke

Study objective: To examine the involvement of Philip Morris in Living Tomorrow 2 and determine the rationale behind its involvement.

Design: Research was conducted through a web based search of internal tobacco industry documents made publicly available through litigation.

Main results: For approximately €1 000 000 Philip Morris (now Altria) became a co-initiator of Living Tomorrow 2, a tourist complex in Belgium that aims to demonstrate how we will be living in the future. In addition to promoting the company and its grocery products, Philip Morris is using the complex and its website to promote ventilation as a means of accommodating smokers and non-smokers in the indoor environment. Particular emphasis was placed on the bar and restaurant areas. Despite the rationale for its involvement, Philip Morris fails to acknowledge its role as a cigarette manufacturer. As a form of corporate sponsorship Philip Morris thought its involvement could evade any European tobacco advertising ban.

Conclusions: Philip Morris is using a tourist attraction to promote its views on control of second hand smoke (SHS) and accommodation of smokers and non-smokers in the indoor environment. However, ventilation does not deal with the health effects of SHS. Policymakers must be cognisant of the devious tactics the industry employs to promote its own agenda, especially in relation to indoor air quality and smoking in public places. Tobacco control legislation should be continually modified and strengthened in response to the changing activities of the tobacco industry as it strives to evade existing legislation and deter the advent of new legislation.

     

Dye marked antibiotics in dry cow mastitis therapy

Eight dry cow dye/antibiotic preparations were used to determine dye and antibiotic excretion endpoints. Formulations contained 400 mg of novobiocin with 25 or 250 mg Food Drug and Cosmetic Blue No. 1 per infusion or 400 mg novobiocin plus 200,000 IU penicillin with 25, 125, or 250 mg Blue No. 1 or 2 dye per infusion. Fifty-two cows entering their second or later lactations were treated in two or four quarters. Milk was sampled postpartum and tested for residues. Dye content was determined visually and subvisually. Antibiotic content was analyzed by the cylinder plate, or Delvotest-P, or by both methods. One sample contained penicillin residues. Three samples had visual dye content of Blue No. 1. Blue No. 2 was not detected. Subvisual dye was detected for one to four milkings in most cows treated with preparations containing Blue No. 1. Cows were treated within 1 to 7 d prepartum with novobiocin plus penicillin containing 250 mg Blue No. 1. Visual dye persisted from 3 to 15 milkings postpartum and subvisual dye for one to two milkings longer. Penicillin was present in postpartum milk in five of seven cows. Novobiocin persisted in three of seven cows.     

Cross-species amplification of soybean (Glycine max) simple sequence repeats (SSRs) within the genus and other legume genera: implications for the transferability of SSRs in plants

We investigated the transferability of 31 soybean (Glycine max) simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci to wild congeners and to other legume genera. Up to 65% of the soybean primer pairs amplified SSRs within Glycine, but frequently, the SSRs were short and interrupted compared with those of soybeans. Nevertheless, 85% of the loci were polymorphic within G. clandestina. Cross-species amplification outside of the genus was much lower (3%-13%), with polymorphism restricted to one primer pair, AG81. AG81 amplified loci in Glycine, Kennedia, and Vigna (Phaseoleae), Vicia (Vicieae), Trifolium (Trifolieae), and Lupinus (Genisteae) within the Papilionoideae, and in Albizia within the Mimosoideae. The primer conservation at AG81 may be explained by its apparent proximity to the seryl-tRNA synthetase gene. Interspecific differences in allele size at AG81 loci reflected repeat length variation within the SSR region and indels in the flanking region. Alleles of identical size with different underlying sequences (size homoplasy) were observed. Our findings and the emerging patterns in other plant studies suggest that in contrast to animals, successful cross-species amplification of SSRs in plants is largely restricted to congeners or closely related genera. Because mutations in both the SSR region and the flanking region contribute to variation in allele size among species, knowledge of DNA sequence is essential before SSR loci can be meaningfully used to address applied and evolutionary questions.     

Extracellular levels of dopamine and its metabolite 3,4-dihydroxy-phenylacetic acid measured by microdialysis in the corpus striatum of conscious AS/AGU mutant rats

The AS/AGU rat is a mutant derived from the Albino Swiss (AS) strain. It is characterized by an ungainly, staggering gait, hind limb rigidity, whole body tremor and, in older animals, difficulty in initiating movement. As and AS/AGU males aged three, six and nine months (n=6 per group) were used to estimate the levels of dopamine and its metabolites in the extracellular fluid of the caudate-putamen. The results indicate a profound loss of dopamine in the extracellular fluid at all age points examined, together with an increase in the concentration of the metabolite 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid. It is suggested that these changes reflect a defect of dopaminergic neuron function which may underlie the motor disorder seen in these animals.