Bias in the formulation of local government budget problems

Government budgets are premised on forecasts of revenues and expenditures. These forecasts are subject to both stochastic error and strategic manipulation. Circumstantial evidence in the budgeting literature and in the popular media suggest that government officials routinely bias the forecasts underlying budgets. The research reported here asked three primary questions: To what extent are budget forecasts systematically biased? Why? (Are fiscal and electoral variables systematically related to the magnitude and direction of the biases?) What political and ethical difference do the biases make? From the literature and an analysis of the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, we developed hypotheses about budget biases. These hypotheses were tested using time series data for the City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (1941–1983); the City of San Diego, California (1950–1982); and the Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) School District (1946–1983). In these locales over the periods examined, budgets were systematically pessimistic; revenues were underestimated and expenditures were overestimated. The fiscal and electoral factors hypothesized to account for this pessimism are, however, very mixed in their ability to explain the biases.     

Implantation of an RFID-tag into human molars to reduce hard forensic identification labor. Part 2: physical properties

Modifying and implanting existing RFID-tags into extracted human molars was described previously [P. Thevissen, G. Poelman, B. Puers, M. De Cooman, G. Willems, Implantation of RFID-tag into human molars to reduce hard forensic identification labor. Part 1. Working principle, Forensic Sci. Int. 156 (2006)]. Maximal vertical occlusal load during which the implanted RFID-tags remain active was evaluated in vitro. The temperature dependency of the implanted RFID-tags was studied on the extracted teeth to find out the maximal obtainable temperature before failure and a test with embedded thermistors to verify temperature distributions. The maximal working temperature of the implanted RFID-tags was revealed and gave indications for the set-up of measuring intra oral and intra tooth temperature during the cremation of a human body. Fatigue was induced on the implanted teeth by thermocycling. The results of this investigation showed the need of putting an extra insulating layer around the modified tags before implantation. The different in vitro tests indicated that the implanted RFID-tags can support certain oral and forensic circumstances.     

An evaluation of the effects of neighborhood mobilization on community problems

This research examines the outcomes of actions taken by members of a residential neighborhood association to revitalize a neighborhood and to make it a safer and more secure place to live. This urban neighborhood association initiated a major planning process in cooperation with city officials. Residents overwhelmingly adopted the plan that included the creation of mini-neighborhoods with a series of gates to moderate traffic flow, increase neighborliness, and reduce crime. An analysis of official data from police crime reports shows that crime was significantly reduced in the neighborhood after the street changes. This reduction in crime was maintained even five years later. Telephone interviews with neighborhood residents indicated that they perceived reductions in traffic, crime, noise and drug offenses for at least five years after the changes. Even though neighborhood cohesion did not increase, it appears that the actions instigated and promoted by neighborhood association members enhanced the quality of life for neighborhood residents.     

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Identification of N,N-dimethylamphetamine formed by methylation of methamphetamine in formalin-fixed liver tissue by multistage mass spectrometry

Methamphetamine is methylated in the presence of unbuffered formalin solutions within hours at room temperature. The product, N,N-dimethylamphetamine, is also found in human liver exposed to methamphetamine followed by incubation with formalin. In the present study, a direct mass spectrometric method was developed to identify N,N-dimethylamphetamine in human liver before and after treatment with formalin. Human liver samples were obtained from four deaths that were investigated by the West Virginia Office of Chief Medical Examiner. Full toxicological analysis was conducted on samples from the decedents and methamphetamine was among the positive findings in each case. The method used to expose liver tissue to formaldehyde involved treating a small piece of liver from each case with formalin solution (20% v/v) for 24 h at room temperature. The formalin treated tissues were homogenized and the resulting suspension was sonicated for 5 min, and then centrifuged. Supernatant aliquots were directly analyzed by electrospray ionization (ESI) mass spectrometry without chromatographic isolation. Positive ion multistage mass spectra recorded in MS, MS/MS and MS/MS/MS (MS3) modes were used to confirm the presence of N,N-dimethylamphetamine and methamphetamine in the mixture. Liver tissue not treated with formalin did not contain a detectable level of N,N-dimethylamphetamine. Decreases in methamphetamine concentrations in liver tissue resulting from treatment with formalin were measured using deuterium-labeled methamphetamine as internal standard. The method can be completed in less than 2 h on thawed tissue. The results suggest that the process of fixing tissues with formalin may lead to false negative findings for methamphetamine.