Involving citizens in sustainable development: Scenario workshop on sustainable mobility

The scenario workshop is an example of the Scandinavian tradition of citizen involvement. The method is a mix of scenario and workshop. Scenarios produced by experts (scientists) are presented to a local community in a workshop lasting two to three days during which local participants produce criticism, debate and plans for community action. The method, originally used to actively involve citizens in the development of environmentally sustainable cities in Denmark, is now in use throughout Europe, as the various EU directorates have become very aware of their usefulness. A method has now been generated at the Copenhagen Business School for the field of transport. Four transport scenarios were generated relating to post-Fordist production systems, transport and the concept of sustainable mobility. They are to be presented in a transport-intensive region of Denmark to analyse barriers against environmentally induced adjustments to the transport sector and to find new solutions to the dilemma by creating dialogue between planners, politicians and transport managers.     

Effects of new bus and rail rapid transit systems – an international review

Cities worldwide are implementing modern transit systems to improve mobility in the increasingly congested metropolitan areas. Despite much research on the effects of such systems, a comparison of effects across transit modes and countries has not been studied comprehensively. This paper fills this gap in the literature by reviewing and comparing the effects obtained by 86 transit systems around the world, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Transit (LRT), metro and heavy rail transit systems. The analysis is twofold by analysing (i) the direct operational effects related to travel time, ridership and modal shifts, and (ii) the indirect strategic effects in terms of effects on property values and urban development. The review confirms the existing literature suggesting that BRT can attract many passengers if travel time reductions are significantly high. This leads to attractive areas surrounding the transit line with increasing property values. Such effects are traditionally associated with attractive rail-based public transport systems. However, a statistical comparison of 41 systems did not show significant deviations between effects on property values resulting from BRT, LRT and metro systems, respectively. Hence, this paper indicates that large strategic effects can be obtained by implementing BRT systems at a much lower cost.     

ERTMS安全性研究——第三篇 ERTMS/ERTML

ERTMS/ERTML是欧洲铁路运输系统管理层的缩写(European Rail Traffic Management Sys-tem/European Rail Traffic Management Layer).ERTML的目标是建立一个高层次的全欧洲铁路运输管理系统.到目前为止,影响其运作决策的主要因素是双边协议及合同.     

Simulation of vertical dynamic vehicle–track interaction using a two-dimensional slab track model

The vertical dynamic interaction between a railway vehicle and a slab track is simulated in the time domain using an extended state-space vector approach in combination with a complex-valued modal superposition technique for the linear, time-invariant and two-dimensional track model. Wheel–rail contact forces, bending moments in the concrete panel and load distributions on the supporting foundation are evaluated. Two generic slab track models including one or two layers of concrete slabs are presented. The upper layer containing the discrete slab panels is described by decoupled beams of finite length, while the lower layer is a continuous beam. Both the rail and concrete layers are modelled using Rayleigh–Timoshenko beam theory. Rail receptances for the two slab track models are compared with the receptance of a traditional ballasted track. The described procedure is demonstrated by two application examples involving: (i) the periodic response due to the rail seat passing frequency as influenced by the vehicle speed and a foundation stiffness gradient and (ii) the transient response due to a local rail irregularity (dipped welded joint).     

A step towards risk-based decision support for ships – Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depend on a large amount of operational and environmental parameters, which will be known only in the statistical sense. The present paper suggests a procedure to incorporate random variables and associated uncertainties in the calculations of the outcrossing rates that are the basis for risk-based DSS. The procedure is based on parallel system analysis, and the paper derives and describes the main ideas. The concept is illustrated by an example, where the limit state of a non-linear ship response is considered. The results from the parallel system analysis are in agreement with corresponding Monte Carlo simulations. However, the computational speed of the parallel system analysis proved slower than expected.     

A box model for North-East Atlantic coastal waters compared with radioactive tracers

A box model for the estimation of doses to members of the public from discharges of radioactivity into North-East Atlantic coastal waters has been used to predict annual means of radionuclide seawater concentrations which have been compared with measured data of tracer radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁵Sb. Discharges of these radionuclides into the sea from the nuclear reprocessing plants Sellafield in the UK and La Hague in France have been used as input to the model. Fallout of ¹³⁷Cs from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and fallout of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident into the Baltic Sea have been taken into account. A large proportion of the measured data was collected during the CEC MAST-900052 project which is concerned with the utilization of radionuclides as tracers for water movements. The data cover the time period 1972–1992. A comparison between predicted and measured concentrations of radionuclides in seawater indicated the need to improve the model with respect to mixing conditions in the English Channel and water transport from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea via the Skagerrak, the Kattegat and the Belt Sea. Improvements were made using the data for ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁹Tc and involved adjustments of the mixing conditions (water exchange rates) between adjacent water boxes while keeping the net advective water fluxes of the model unaltered. The results of the modified version of the model have been compared with observed values. The comparison shows a somewhat better agreement for ¹³⁷Cs and ¹²⁵Sb than for ⁹⁹Tc which is believed to be due to the lower reliability of the ⁹⁹Tc discharge data from Sellafield in 1978. An analysis of the predicted-to-observed seawater concentrations indicates an overall predictive accuracy of the model of 0.9 corresponding to a 10% underestimation and a predictive precision of about a factor of 2.5 at a confidence level of 95%. The ¹²⁵Sb data, which are independent of the tuning of the model, support the general conclusions about the model predictions of radionuclide concentrations in seawater.     

地铁曲线段不规则磨耗引起的钢轨波磨监测

在小半径曲线的内轨侧出现钢轨短波波磨加剧的现象,是世界上许多铁路网都面临的一个问题。由于地铁线路小半径曲线大量存在,受其影响尤为突出。本文为一实例研究,属于一个研发预测曲线地段钢轨波磨的数值工具课题的一部分。在斯德哥尔摩地铁中一处半径为120m的曲线段上,通过重复测试轨道的粗糙度及列车通过时引起的噪声,监测波磨的发展状况。在一年的打磨过程中,发生了剧烈的短波波磨,最大峰-峰值约为0.15mm。测试数据谱分析显示,在4～14cm波长范围内,粗糙度幅值较大,峰值约在5和8cm处。波磨为单一的纵向形式（波峰与轨道方向垂直）,幅值在100m长的被测轨道段上呈现不规则变化。粗糙度增长速率随时间增加,直至钢轨打磨后的300天,此后仅有少量的附加粗糙度出现。由于平均车速约为30km/h,因此由波磨造成的滚动噪声主要处于200Hz以下的低频段。打磨后的139～300天,4～14cm波长范围内粗糙度级增加10.1dB,与之相应的60～200Hz频段内的滚动噪声级增加4.9dB。在干燥天气条件下,列车通过时引起人体不适的噪声主要是车轮啸鸣噪声而非滚动噪声。     

Implications of path tolerance and path characteristics on critical vehicle manoeuvres

Path planning and path following are core components in safe autonomous driving. Typically, a path planner provides a path with some tolerance on how tightly the path should be followed. Based on that, and other path characteristics, for example, sharpness of curves, a speed profile needs to be assigned so that the vehicle can stay within the given tolerance without going unnecessarily slow. Here, such trajectory planning is based on optimal control formulations where critical cases arise as on-the-limit solutions. The study focuses on heavy commercial vehicles, causing rollover to be of a major concern, due to the relatively high centre of gravity. Several results are obtained on required model complexity depending on path characteristics, for example, quantification of required path tolerance for a simple model to be sufficient, quantification of when yaw inertia needs to be considered in more detail, and how the curvature rate of change interplays with available friction. Overall, in situations where the vehicle is subject to a wide range of driving conditions, from good transport roads to more tricky avoidance manoeuvres, the requirements on the path following will vary. For this, the provided results form a basis for real-time path following.     

Onboard monitoring of fatigue damage rates in the hull girder

Most new advanced ships have extensive data collection systems to be used for continuous monitoring of engine and hull performance, for voyage performance evaluation etc. Such systems could be expanded to include also procedures for stress monitoring and for decision support, where the most critical wave-induced ship extreme responses and fatigue damage accumulation can be estimated for hypothetical changes in ship course and speed in the automatically estimated wave environment.The aim of this paper is to outline a calculation procedure for fatigue damage rate prediction in hull girders taking into account whipping stresses. It is conceptually shown how such a method, which integrates onboard estimation of sea states, can be used to deduce decision support with respect to the accumulated fatigue damage in the hull girder.The paper firstly presents a set of measured full-scale wave-induced stress ranges in a container ship, where the associated fatigue damage rates calculated from a combination of the rain-flow counting method and the Palmgren-Miner damage rule are compared with damage predictions obtained from a computationally much faster frequency fatigue analysis using a spectral method. This analysis verifies the applied multi-modal spectral analysis procedure for fatigue estimation for cases where hull girder flexibility plays a role.To obtain an automated prediction method for the fatigue damage rates it is in the second part of the paper shown how a combination of the full-scale onboard acceleration and stress measurements can be used to calculate sea state parameters. These calculated environmental data are verified by a comparison to hindcast data.In the third part of the paper the full-scale fatigue stress ranges are compared to results from an analytical design oriented calculation procedure for flexible ship hulls in short-term estimated sea states.Altogether, it is conceptually shown that by a combination of the onboard estimated sea state parameters with the described analytical fatigue damage prediction procedure a method can be established for real-time onboard decision support which includes estimates of fatigue damage rates.