Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: redux

We report on the evolution and accuracy of a model used to predict the mid-summer area of hypoxia (oxygen ≤2 mg l(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, use it to test for impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), and estimate the N loading that would meet a management goal. The prediction since 2000 were 100%±6% (μ±1 SE) of the actual value. The predicted in 2010 was 99% of that actual value, suggesting that the net effect of the 2010 oil spill on the hypoxic zone size was negligible. A tropical storm, however, may have reduced the potential size of the hypoxic zone. Lowering the May nitrogen load to about 70,000 mton N nitrate+nitrite would bring the model's predicted hypoxic zone size down to the management goal of 5000 km(2) and restore hypoxic waters to normoxic conditions.     

Value-by-alpha maps: An alternative technique to the cartogram

The cartogram, or value-by-area map, is a popular technique for cartographically representing social data. Such maps visually equalize a basemap prior to mapping a social variable by adjusting the size of each enumeration unit by a second, related variable. However, to scale the basemap units according to an equalizing variable, cartograms must distort the shape and/or topology of the original geography. Such compromises reduce the effectiveness of the visualization for elemental and general map-reading tasks. Here we describe a new kind of representation, termed a value-by-alpha map, which visually equalizes the basemap by adjusting the alpha channel, rather than the size, of each enumeration unit. Although not without its own limitations, the value-by-alpha map is able to circumvent the compromise inherent to the cartogram form, perfectly equalizing the basemap while preserving both shape and topology.     

Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP)

RAMP embraces the integrated use of methods for the rapid measurement, assessment and access to information on the nature, sources and influences of coastal environmental change. It embraces approaches held in the literature, research and programs of RAMP (Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution) and the emerging work described as RASE (Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators). To protect coastal ecosystems and the health of communities effectively, management infrastructure requires the tools and resources necessary to detect damage to coastal ecosystems and their components, identify causative agents, impose remedial action, and demonstrate that measures have been effective. Pragmatic monitoring and prediction capabilities must also be built to provide further confidence that human impacts are being minimized and that threats to human health have been contained. For most of the world, however, the ability to build such capability is a technical challenge and often cost prohibitive. These constraints point to the need to develop and expand the integrated use of simple, robust, cost-effective environmental assessment procedures. This paper suggests that a system built around the Rapid Assessment of Marine Pollution (RAMP) and the Rapid Assessment of Socio-Economic Indicators (RASE) can, should and in some cases already has been effective in meeting such informational and management needs.     

Future aquatic nutrient limitations

Nutrient limitation of phytoplankton growth in aquatic systems is moving towards a higher incidence of P and Si limitation as a result of increased nitrogen loading, a N:P fertilizer use of 26:1 (molar basis), population growth, and relatively stable silicate loading. This result will likely alter phytoplankton community composition, and may compromise diatom-->zooplankton-->fish food webs.