“Those found responsible have been sacked”: some observations on the usefulness of error

Erik Hollnagel’s body of work in the past three decades has molded much of the current research approach to system safety, particularly notions of “error”. Hollnagel regards “error” as a dead-end and avoids using the term. This position is consistent with Rasmussen’s claim that there is no scientifically stable category of human performance that can be described as “error”. While this systems view is undoubtedly correct, “error” persists. Organizations, especially formal business, political, and regulatory structures, use “error” as if it were a stable category of human performance. They apply the term to performances associated with undesired outcomes, tabulate occurrences of “error”, and justify control and sanctions through “error”. Although a compelling argument can be made for Hollnagel’s view, it is clear that notions of “error” are socially and organizationally productive. The persistence of “error” in management and regulatory circles reflects its value as a means for social control.     

Search advertising placement strategy: Exploring the efficacy of the conventional wisdom

Search advertising is one of the most important forms of electronic commerce. While click-through rates are considered a key measure of search advertising effectiveness by search providers, brand attention can also be a valuable objective. Our paper reports on an experiment that investigated how search advertisement placement affected search users’ brand recall and recognition. The results showed that semantically associated search ads generated significantly higher levels of brand attention than contextually associated ones. Significant interaction effects were found among search ad position, keyword association, and search result quality. Implications for decision makers are discussed.     

Rater reliability and concurrent validity of the Keyboard Personal Computer Style instrument (K-PeCS)

This paper describes the inter-rater and intra-rater reliability, and the concurrent validity of an observational instrument, the Keyboard Personal Computer Style instrument (K-PeCS), which assesses stereotypical postures and movements associated with computer keyboard use. Three trained raters independently rated the video clips of 45 computer keyboard users to ascertain inter-rater reliability, and then re-rated a sub-sample of 15 video clips to ascertain intra-rater reliability. Concurrent validity was assessed by comparing the ratings obtained using the K-PeCS to scores developed from a 3D motion analysis system. The overall K-PeCS had excellent reliability [inter-rater: intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC)=.90; intra-rater: ICC=.92]. Most individual items on the K-PeCS had from good to excellent reliability, although six items fell below ICC=.75. Those K-PeCS items that were assessed for concurrent validity compared favorably to the motion analysis data for all but two items. These results suggest that most items on the K-PeCS can be used to reliably document computer keyboarding style.     

Using LiDAR and quickbird data to model plant production and quantify uncertainties associated with wetland detection and land cover generalizations

Spatiotemporal data from satellite remote sensing and surface meteorology networks have made it possible to continuously monitor global plant production, and to identify global trends associated with land cover/use and climate change. Gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) are routinely derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard satellites Terra and Aqua, and estimates generally agree with independent measurements at validation sites across the globe. However, the accuracy of GPP and NPP estimates in some regions may be limited by the quality of model input variables and heterogeneity at fine spatial scales. We developed new methods for deriving model inputs (i.e., land cover, leaf area, and photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by plant canopies) from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) and Quickbird multispectral data at resolutions ranging from about 30 m to 1 km. In addition, LiDAR-derived biomass was used as a means for computing carbon-use efficiency. Spatial variables were used with temporal data from ground-based monitoring stations to compute a six-year GPP and NPP time series for a 3600 ha study site in the Great Lakes region of North America. Model results compared favorably with independent observations from a 400 m flux tower and a process-based ecosystem model (BIOME-BGC), but only after removing vapor pressure deficit as a constraint on photosynthesis from the MODIS global algorithm. Fine-resolution inputs captured more of the spatial variability, but estimates were similar to coarse-resolution data when integrated across the entire landscape. Failure to account for wetlands had little impact on landscape-scale estimates, because vegetation structure, composition, and conversion efficiencies were similar to upland plant communities. Plant productivity estimates were noticeably improved using LiDAR-derived variables, while uncertainties associated with land cover generalizations and wetlands in this largely forested landscape were considered less important.     

A two-stage hierarchical regression model for meta-analysis of epidemiologic nonlinear dose–response data

To estimate a summarized dose–response relation across different exposure levels from epidemiologic data, meta-analysis often needs to take into account heterogeneity across studies beyond the variation associated with fixed effects. We extended a generalized-least-squares method and a multivariate maximum likelihood method to estimate the summarized nonlinear dose–response relation taking into account random effects. These methods are readily suited to fitting and testing models with covariates and curvilinear dose–response relations.     

An observational comparison of the older and younger bus passenger experience in a developing world city

This study was an unobtrusive observational analysis of 333 older and younger bus passengers in Guadalajara, Mexico. A set of data were collected for each observed passenger, as well as more general observations related to driver behaviour, bus design and bus service characteristics. There were significant differences between older and younger passengers in terms of boarding and alighting times, use of handrails, seat location preferences, passenger stability and coping strategies in order to maintain postural stability. The conditions of travel are conducive to a poor passenger experience for the older passengers in particular. Although the problems may be attributed to bus design and driver behaviour typical of that in developing countries, they are also influenced by the wider transport infrastructure, and a lack of a regulatory regime which places drivers under time pressure and in direct competition with each other.

Practitioner Summary: Bus services must cater for all ages of passengers, including the elderly. This unobtrusive observational study investigated the passenger experience in a developing world city. Bus and wider service design were found to compromise the journey experience, with the older users being particularly negatively impacted. Design recommendations are provided.     

Dynamic fatigue of brittle materials containing indentation line flaws

A study is made of the dynamic fatigue response of brittle materials containing indentation-induced line flaws. The theoretical fracture mechanics of median crack evolution to failure under applied tension are first developed, with special emphasis on the role of residual contact stresses. In particular, it is shown that use of fatigue curves to evaluate the exponent in an assumed power-law crack velocity function may result in systematic error, by as much as a factor of two, if proper account is not taken of this residual contact contribution. Data from strength tests on soda-lime glass bars in water, using a tungsten carbide cutting wheel to introduce the median pre-cracks, confirm the basic predictions. The results suggest that extreme care needs to be exercised when using surfaces with a contact history, e.g. as with machining damage, in fatigue test programmes for materials analysis.     

Fatigue analysis of brittle materials using indentation flaws

The results of an experimental dynamic fatigue study on glass-ceramic specimens containing indentation flaws are analysed in terms of the theory developed in Part 1. A Vickers indenter is used to introduce the flaws, and a conventional four-point bend apparatus to break the specimens. Base-line data for testing the essential theoretical predictions and for evaluating key material/environment parameters are obtained from polished surfaces, i.e. surfaces prepared to a sufficient finish to ensure removal of any pre-existing spurious stresses. The fatigue tests are carried out in water. Inert strength tests in dry nitrogen are used to calibrate appropriate equilibrium fracture parameters, with dummy indentations on selected control specimens providing a convenient measure of the critical crack dimensions at failure. Regression analysis of the dynamic fatigue data yields values for apparent kinetic parameters, which are converted to true kinetic parameters via the transformation equations of Part I. Regeneration of the fatigue function from the theory using the parameters thus determined gives a curve which passes closely through the experimental data points, thereby providing a self-consistent check of the formalism. The implications of the results in relation to the use of macroscopic fracture parameters in the prediction of strength properties for materials with small-scale flaws is an important adjunct to this work. Finally, a recommended procedure for the general testing of dynamic fatigue properties of ceramics using indentation flaws is described.     

Sustainable Disposal of Domestic Sanitary Waste

The study presented is an example of the assessment of the relative sustainability of either option for disposal of domestic sanitary waste, either via the toilet or via the solid waste route. This required an evaluation of the total (social, economic, environmental, and technical) benefit/cost of implementing and adopting the alternative routes and an assessment of public responsiveness to encouragement to change sanitary waste disposal practices. It illustrates how, even for an apparently straightforward either/or question, the assessment of relative sustainability is complex and the amount of data needed to quantify sustainability indicators is prodigious. The study also provides an appraisal of the effectiveness of public campaigns to reduce waterborne disposal. Important information regarding public attitude and behavior in relation to wastewater systems has been acquired and lessons for ways of encouraging behavioral change to more sustainable ways of living have been gleaned.     

Analyzing Nonindependent Outcomes in Couple Therapy Using the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

The nonindependent components of couple data require data-analytic strategies tailored to the interpersonal processes occurring between relationship partners. This article examines the benefits of a specifically dyadic analytic method, the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM), for evaluating interpartner influence across time. Both conceptual and methodological features of the APIM are exemplified by applying this model to observations of negative and positive affect and global distress in spouses participating in a randomized trial of couple therapy. In addition to elucidating specific advantages of the APIM relative to alternative data-analytic strategies, the current results shed new light on previous findings from a comparative treatment outcome study evaluating behavioral and insight-oriented approaches to couple therapy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)