Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

Large, complex energy models present considerable challenges to develop and test. Uncertainty assessments of such models provide only partial guidance on the quality of the results. We have developed a model quality assistance checklist to aid in this purpose. The model checklist provides diagnostic output in the form of a set of pitfalls for the model application. The checklist is applied here to an energy model for the problem of assessing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Use of the checklist suggests that results on this issue are contingent on a number of assumptions that are highly value-laden. When these assumptions are held fixed, the model is deemed capable of producing moderately robust results of relevance to climate policy over the longer term. Checklist responses also indicate that a number of details critical to policy choices or outcomes on this issue are not captured in the model, and model results should therefore be supplemented with alternative analyses.     

科学的挑战--重视成本效益,清洁波罗的海

波罗的海是世界上受人类活动影响最严重的海洋之一,虽然有减少向波罗的海排放营养物质的国际协议,但迄今为止采取的措施,既没有从根本上减少营养物质的排放,也没有促进环境的改善.部分原因可以归咎为缺少有关物理学、生物地球化学和生态特性之间大尺度关系和相互作用的知识,但是还缺少全流域范围的成本效益分析.错误的决策非常危险,例如,执行的减少排放的方案根本没有效果,或远远达不到成本效益.许多学科的研究者正面临着一个共同的挑战开发一个决策支持系统,作为整个波罗的海成本效益分析法的科学基础.研究项目海洋富营养化的研究(MARE)(http∥www.mare.su.se)正致力于这方面的研究.     

不稳定气候条件下中上层鱼类的种群补充:瑞典四大湖泊研究

通过对瑞典维纳恩、韦特恩、梅拉伦和哈马伦四大湖泊中上层鱼类种群生物学的研究得出,适宜区域里鱼苗在生长季节尽早孵化,并在冬季到来之前达到一定的体长,对鱼苗的成活是至关重要的.一般认为,这不仅是为了适应春季浮游动植物的生长,同时也是为了避免被捕食.相对于秋季产卵的欧白鲑(Coregonus albula)来说,通过对春季产卵的胡瓜鱼(Osmerus eperlanus)和梭鲈(Stizostedion lucioperca)的研究,我们更容易得出上述的结论.冰融之后欧白鲑苗的迅速孵化对鱼类的种群生长较为有利.在贫营养性、掠食性鱼类很少的湖泊中,冰融化之后水温的快速回升对种群的补充较为有利,而在富营养性的湖泊中,由于存在被捕食的压力,情况就大不一样了.研究结果表明秋季产卵群体较难适应全球变暖的趋势,不同年份鱼类在年种群生长强度方面存在着较大的差异,这可用生活史来予以解释.     

A Simulation of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Carbon at Landscape Level: A Case Study for Lake Abitibi Model Forest in Ontario,Canada

Using a case study of the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF), this study aims to assess the temporal and spatial variability in carbon storage during 1990–2000, and to present a comprehensive estimation of the carbon budget for LAMF's ecosystems. As well, it provided the information needed by local forest managers to develop ecological and carbon-based indicators and monitor the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Temporal and spatial carbon dynamics were simulated at the landscape level using ecosystem model TRIPLEX1.0 and Geographical Information System (GIS). The simulated net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in forest biomass and soil were compared with field data and results from other studies for Canada's boreal forests. The results show that simulated NPP ranged from 3.26 to 3.34 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the 1990s and was consistent with the range measured during the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Studies (BOREAS) in central Canada. Modeled NPP was also compared with the estimation from remote sensing data. The density of total above-and belowground biomass was 125.3, 111.8, and 106.5 tC ha⁻¹ for black spruce, trembling aspen, and jack pine in the LAMF ecosystem, respectively. The total carbon density of forested land was estimated at 154.4 tC ha⁻¹ with the proportion of 4:6 for total biomass and soil. The analysis of net carbon balance of ecosystem suggested that the LAMF forest ecosystem was acting as a carbon sink with an allowable harvest in the 1990s.     

Cells of the connective tissue differentiate and migrate into pollen sacs

In angiosperms, archesporial cells in the anther primordium undergo meiosis to form haploid pollen, the sole occupants of anther sacs. Anther sacs are held together by a matrix of parenchyma cells, the connective tissue. Cells of the connective tissue are not known to differentiate. We report the differentiation of parenchyma cells in the connective tissue of two Gordonia species into pollen-like structures (described as pseudopollen), which migrate into the anther sacs before dehiscence. Pollen and pseudopollen were distinguishable by morphology and staining. Pollen were tricolpate to spherical while pseudopollen were less rigid and transparent with a ribbed surface. Both types were different in size, shape, staining and surface architecture. The ratio of the number of pseudopollen to pollen was 1:3. During ontogeny in the connective tissue, neither cell division nor tetrad formation was observed and hence pseudopollen were presumed to be diploid. Only normal pollen germinated on a germination medium. Fixed preparations in time seemed to indicate that pseudopollen migrate from the connective tissue into the anther sac.     

The functionality of female reciprocal calls in the Iberian midwife toad (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alytes cisternasii</Emphasis>): female-female acoustic competition?

Female midwife toads (genus Alytes) emit highly variable reciprocal calls of unclear function prior to and during courtship. In some species, female-female competition, expressed as physical fighting, has been reported. Males of Majorcan midwife toads (Alytes muletensis) show phonotactic response to female calls, and females of Iberian midwife toads (Alytes cisternasii) respond differently according to the male call characteristics. In this study, I test the hypothesis of female-female acoustic competition as an additional function of female reciprocal calls. Playback tests indicate that female calls are not clearly involved in female acoustic competition in the Iberian midwife toad, therefore female calls could be directed at males rather than towards competitive females.     

Gamergates in the myrmicine genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Metapone</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera:Formicidae)

Gamergates (i.e. mated reproductive workers) are mostly known from ant species within the Ponerinae. We report here the discovery of gamergates in two species of the subfamily Myrmicinae. Until now, mated reproductive females in colonies of myrmicine species have been considered morphologically distinct from the worker caste. However, in two species of the myrmicine Metapone (Metapone madagascarica and a newly discovered, not yet described Metapone species) all workers have six ovarioles and a spermatheca; and some of them are mated. There are no morphological differences between mated and non-mated workers. Field observations and laboratory studies indicate that colonies of the Metapone species can reproduce with gamergates only.     

Vocal acrobatics in a Chinese frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Amolops tormotus</Emphasis>

Although amphibians are highly vocal, they generally emit only a limited number of acoustic communication signals. We report here the extraordinarily rich vocal repertoire of Amolops tormotus, a ranid species in China. These frogs produce countless vocalizations, some of which share features of birdsong or primate calls, e.g., ultrasonic frequency components, multiple upward and downward FM sweeps, and sudden onset and offset of selective harmonic components within a call note. Frame-by-frame video analysis of the frog's calling behavior suggests the presence of two pairs of vocal sacs that may contribute to the remarkable call-note complexity in this species. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00114-002-0335-x.     

Inventory of emissions from major air pollutant categories in Turkey

In this study, an inventory of air pollutant emission estimates from major air polluting sources in Turkey for period between 1985 and 2005 with 5-year intervals were estimated. Inventory covers anthropogenic sources of five major air pollutants of particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and non-methane volatile organic compounds. Their break-down with respect to main activity sectors were shown and their distribution by the largest industrial source categories were worked out as annual estimates. This inventory and its analysis point to serious environmental implications of air pollutants and a need to develop a policy plan for reducing these emissions.