An Assessment of the Italian 2007 Complementary Social Security Reform: A Simulation Approach

In this paper we aim at assessing the outcomes of the 2007 Italian reform of the complementary social security scheme and at identifying the determinants behind them. The reform provided workers with relevant incentives to switch the investment of about 7 per cent of their gross yearly wages from a firm‐managed scheme (which took the form of a termination indemnity payment, the Trattamento di Fine Rapporto scheme) to an external pension fund. We provide a theoretical framework to model the workers' problem of choosing between these two different forms of complementary social security schemes and we then perform an agent‐based simulation taking into account all the details of the reform. Differently from previous contributions, we stress the impact that the investment decision has on the financial health of firms and, consequently, on workers' employment stability. Our simulations are able to replicate the Italian data in terms of adhesion rates to complementary social security and also to identify some of the key determinants of that outcome, such as fiscal incentives, individual preferences, the working of both the Italian labour and the financial markets and the productive structure of the Italian economy.     

Nearly Gaussian Distributions and Application

We consider the random variable X that is not Gaussian but for which X ^c , where c = (2k + 1)/(2j + 1) with k, j ? {0, 1,…}, is approximately Gaussian. A variable of this type is used to model the errors made by meteorologists when forecasting temperatures.     

Multiple comparisons to both a negative and a positive control

This paper addresses multiple comparisons in the presence of both a negative and a positive control. The methodology of the three-arm trial is extended to the case of many experimental treatment arms or different doses of a compound. In contrast to the classic three-arm trial, the focus is on the family-wise error type I. Normally distributed data with either homogeneous or heterogeneous group variances are considered. Explicit criteria for an optimal allocation are proposed. Depending on the pattern of heterogeneity, remarkably unbalanced designs are power-optimal. As an example, the method will be applied to a toxicological experiment.     

The Failure of External Control on Public Utilities

Although on average the cost of local public services is quite high, the same cannot always be said about their quality. Why is this so? This paper suggests that the answer lies in the failure of external control systems. Specifically, four types of risk have been identified: (1) standardisation that is either lacking or incongruent; (2) inappropriate relationships between controllers and the controlled; (3) cases of erosion and resistance to control; (4) incoherence between control aims and methods, and the skill of controllers. The research method was based partly on an analysis of literature and partly on empirical observation. Initially, a thorough examination of articles on the subject published in the main international journals was carried out. Then empirical research (limited to the Italian situation) was added to support the research hypotheses, and which led to the paper’s conclusions. The results may be significant from two points of view. Firstly, although in recent years financial scandals have been very much in the news (the cases of Enron, Argentine bonds, football club scandals) literature has not yet systematically dealt with control failure. Secondly, the conclusions may be of support to public administration policy-makers or to controllers who need to improve their professionalism and diligence.     

A qualitative information system for data management

This article traces the path which led to the adaptation of the Information System approach to data management and the use of a Relational Data Base Management System in the Vitrine 2001 project, a research project looking at children's learning activities with computers using qualitative research techniques. The principles which guided the selection and design of the data base, consideration of its advantages, as well as guidelines to help others who may wish to use a similar instrument are also presented.     

Unemployment insurance: Theoretical approaches and empirical evidence

This article analyses the principal theoretical approaches to the effects on the labour market when an unemployment insurance scheme is introduced. The article also reviews the international data derived from such insurance schemes already in use in some European and American economies. The principal conclusion of this study is that an unemployment scheme does not necessarily affect employment decisions adversely, nor does it encourage long-term unemployment. Furthermore, to the extent that this analysis goes beyond the traditional limits of the employment-unemployment relationship and considers the institutional aspects, which can be at least as important as the individual benefits, the effects on employment and on the allocation of resources in the economy can be positive. Finally, the study identifies some criteria to be considered when designing the scheme, such as the level of benefits, the period for which they are granted, the type of beneficiary covered, the type of financing and its relationship to the quality of the information and its complementary role in the process of adapting the labour force to new demands.     

A method to assess safety and resilience in radiopharmaceuticals production process

Radiopharmaceuticals are radiation-emitting substances used in medicine for radiotherapy and imaging diagnosis. A Research Institute, located in Rio de Janeiro, produces three radiopharmaceuticals: the sodium iodate is used in the diagnosis of thyroid dysfunctions, the meta-iodo-benzylguanidine is used in the diagnosis of cardiac diseases, and the fluordesoxyglucose is used in diagnosis in cardiology, oncology, neurology and neuropsychiatry. This paper presents a method to access safety and resilience in radiopharmaceuticals production processes. The method uses resilience indicators in order to proactively evaluate and manage the safety.     

Optimal designs for regional bridging studies using the Bayesian power prior method

As described in the ICH E5 guidelines, a bridging study is an additional study executed in a new geographical region or subpopulation to link or “build a bridge” from global clinical trial outcomes to the new region. The regulatory and scientific goals of a bridging study is to evaluate potential subpopulation differences while minimizing duplication of studies and meeting unmet medical needs expeditiously. Use of historical data (borrowing) from global studies is an attractive approach to meet these conflicting goals. Here, we propose a practical and relevant approach to guide the optimal borrowing rate (percent of subjects in earlier studies) and the number of subjects in the new regional bridging study. We address the limitations in global/regional exchangeability through use of a Bayesian power prior method and then optimize bridging study design with a return on investment viewpoint. The method is demonstrated using clinical data from global and Japanese trials in dapagliflozin for type 2 diabetes.