Measuring Child Poverty in Hong Kong: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale

In September 2013, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region established Hong Kong’s first official poverty line. The new poverty line is used as a major yardstick in social welfare policy formulation and in the allocation of public resources aimed at combating poverty; despite its importance, however, its robustness has not been examined. Using data from the 2011 Population Census, we examined the robustness of the official poverty line in measuring child poverty in Hong Kong through assessing the sensitivity of child poverty measures to the choice of different equivalence scales. The results show that the child poverty profile in Hong Kong is generally not sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale and that the official poverty line correctly identifies those children who live in poverty. Rates of child poverty among boys and girls of different ages, with different family backgrounds and living in households with different compositions, were calculated and ranked using different equivalence scales; these rankings were found to be very similar to those yielded by the official poverty measure. Thus, the choice of adult equivalence scale does not favour any subgroup. We also examined the child poverty profile in Hong Kong based on the official poverty measure and with our 2011 census data. We found that the children in our sample were more likely than the adults to live in poverty household; that more than half of the children who lived in poverty belonged to working poor families; and that children living in public housing were particularly likely to suffer from severe poverty. In light of these findings, we urge the government to prioritise taking measures aimed at lifting children out of poverty.     

On using percentiles to fit data by a johnson distribution

The well-known Johnson system of distributions was developed by N. L. Johnson (1949). Slifker and Shapiro (1980) presented a criterion for choosing a member from the three distributional classes (S_B,S_L, and S_v) in the Johnson system to fit a set of data. The criterion is based on the value of a quantile ratio which depends on a specified positive z value and the parameters of the distribution. In this paper, we present some properties of the quantile ratio for various distributions and for some selected z values. Some comments are made on using the criterion for selecting a Johnson distribution to fit empirical data.     

Trajectories of heroin addiction: growth mixture modeling results based on a 33-year follow-up study

This study investigates trajectories of heroin use and subsequent consequences in a sample of 471 male heroin addicts who were admitted to the California Civil Addict Program in 1964-1965 and followed over 33 years. Applying a two-part growth mixture modeling strategy to heroin use level during the first 16 years of the addiction careers since first heroin use, the authors identified three groups with distinctive profiles: stably high-level heroin users (n = 278), late decelerated users (n = 149), and early quitters (n = 44). Study findings empirically demonstrate the chronic nature of heroin addiction and subsequent adverse consequences including mortality, mental health, and employment.     

Robustness of the EWMA and the combined X¯–EWMA control charts with variable sampling intervals to non-normality

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts with variable sampling intervals (VSIs) have been shown to be substantially quicker than the fixed sampling intervals (FSI) EWMA control charts in detecting process mean shifts. The usual assumption for designing a control chart is that the data or measurements are normally distributed. However, this assumption may not be true for some processes. In the present paper, the performances of the EWMA and combined X¯–EWMA control charts with VSIs are evaluated under non-normality. It is shown that adding the VSI feature to the EWMA control charts results in very substantial decreases in the expected time to detect shifts in process mean under both normality and non-normality. However, the combined X¯–EWMA chart has its false alarm rate and its detection ability is affected if the process data are not normally distributed.     

中国外贸进出口影响因素实证分析

一、方法论及数据处理８０年代以来,我国在对外经济、贸易与合作各个领域都取得了巨大的成就。外贸进出口以年均１４％的速度迅猛增长,到１９９６年进出口总值达２８９９亿美元,中国跻身世界十大外贸强国之列。随着改革的深入,开放的扩大,对外贸易在我国经济发展中的...     

‘System Destroys Trust?’—Regulatory Institutions and Public Perceptions of Food Risks in Taiwan

This article aims to explore public perceptions of global food risk issues and public attitudes towards government capacity to respond to concerns with technological and health uncertainties in an era of rapid economic development in newly industrialized countries. From cross-national comparative research on global food risk issues in the EU, UK, Germany, and Taiwan, survey results revealed distinct structural problems existing in Taiwan. In particular, it revealed that a long-term culture of authoritarian technological decision-making and positivistic risk assessment has lead to social risk perceptions being institutionally amplified and public trust gradually being destroyed.     

地方高校应用心理学专业实践教学体系的构建

以实践教学为突破口,大力加强学生社会心理服务能力的培养,是构建地方高校心理学应用型人才培养模式的必由之路。“以社会心理服务为导向”的实践教学体系以培养学生的社会心理服务能力为中心,促进学生的专业成长,提升学生的就业竞争力。实践教学体系的构建涵盖了目标体系、内容体系、实践环境体系、教师队伍体系和制度建设体系等五大方面。     

Modeling exotic highly pathogenic avian influenza virus entrance risk through air passenger violations

The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is able to survive in poultry products and could be carried into a country by air travelers. An assessment model was constructed to estimate the probability of the exotic viable HPAIV entering Taiwan from two neighboring areas through poultry products carried illegally by air passengers at Taiwan's main airports. The entrance risk was evaluated based on HPAIV-related factors (the prevalence and the incubation period of HPAIV; the manufacturing process of poultry products; and the distribution-storage-transportation factor event) and the passenger event. Distribution functions were adopted to simulate the probabilities of each HPAIV factor. The odds of passengers being intercepted with illegal poultry products were estimated by logistic regression. The Monte Carlo simulation established that the risk caused by HPAIV-related factors from area A was lower than area B, whereas the entrance risk by the passenger event from area A was similar to area B. Sensitivity analysis showed that the incubation period of HPAIV and the interception of passenger violations were major determinants. Although the result showed viable HPAIV was unlikely to enter Taiwan through meat illegally carried by air passengers, this low probability could be caused by incomplete animal disease data and modeling uncertainties. Considering the negative socioeconomic impacts of HPAIV outbreaks, strengthening airport quarantine measures is still necessary. This assessment provides a profile of HPAIV entrance risk through air travelers arriving from endemic areas and a feasible direction for quarantine and public health measures.     

Effects of pronoun use in campaign advertisements on young Taiwanese voters

Campaign advertisements can greatly influence voters; however, the effects of subtle variations in advertising content have rarely been investigated. This study was conducted to quantify the effects of minor variations in pronoun use on young Taiwanese voters’ responses to campaign advertisements. Also examined were the moderating effects of voters’ perceptions of the candidate’s personality characteristics as shaped by the candidate’s physical appearance and the camera angle used in the candidate’s photo. The experimental results indicated that the use of the pronoun “we” in a campaign advertisement led to a closer perceived relationship between voters and the candidate compared to the inclusive pronoun “you,” which generated better advertising effects. Moreover, the results showed that when the voters visually inferred that a candidate had higher competence or when the candidate was photographed from a low angle, which created the perception of greater power, the use of the pronoun “we” was more suitable. The inclusive “you,” in contrast, was more suitable for candidates that were perceived by the voters to have greater warmth or for candidates that were photographed from a high angle, which created the perception of less power.