The current state of the labor queue: National and regional Evidence

We employ vector autoregressive techniques to determine the current state of the labor queue. Unemployment rate differentials have narrowed in recent years, potentially due to a change in the queue ordering, though a tight labor market and a stable queue would yield similar results. We find no evidence that the queue ordering has changed, which brings into question the resiliency of gains made by minority groups. We employ the same techniques to reveal the state of the queue across geographic regions and find that substantial differences exist across regions, implying variation in the relative labor force status of demographic groups.     

二十世纪八九十年代女性文学变革探析

二十世纪八九十年代女性文学在传统女性文学的基础上发生嬗变,在中国文坛上引起巨大的震撼。试图从女性生存的环境和女性性别意识诠释女性文学发生流变的真实状态。探讨女性文学在变革时期所走过的不寻常的路。剥离出对现在文学有启迪的、有价值的女性文学。     

翻译理论新标准与语言学理论

语言学的发展一直在不断地影响着翻译理论的发展,只不过有时这种影响很间接,尼达的译学思想在中国翻译界一向占据着重要的地位,但这位大师最近宣布其观点已经发生根本变化,尼达学术观点的变化无疑会给目前译学建设带来一定的负面影响。本文着重从翻译理论的作用、翻译标准及语言学与翻译的关系三个角度对尼达翻译思想的转变加以分析;重新阐述理论在译学框架中的地位及作用,理论和实践的关系及翻译理论的意义。     

在有形与无形之间——浦东外企青年群体的特点及其工作思路探讨

随着市场经济的发展,新经济组织已成为经济发展中的一个亮点.外企是新经济组织中的一个组成部分.通过团的工作社会化来带动外企业青年工作是一个新的工作思路.本文就此进行了一些理论的探讨,提出了以社团等有形阵地和网络等无形阵地为基点,建立一个全方位、多层次的外企青年服务体系.     

以信息化改造传统交通,加快实现广州交通现代化

该文从信息化建设的基本理论出发,结合广州市公交行业,阐明公交系统实行信息化建设的迫切性。     

从冲突到秩序:政治冲突调控机制分析

冲突是不可避免的政治现象,是政治的内在属性.政治冲突具有不同的功能和强度,这为政治冲突调控机制的选择提供了路径依赖.政治冲突的调控是内力和外力共同作用的结果.所以,政治冲突的调控机制也就包括了自我调控和政府调控两大机制,它们共同推动和维持政治系统的动态稳定,实现从冲突到秩序的转换.     

Bayesian analysis of a marked point process: Application in seismic hazard assessment

Point processes are the stochastic models most suitable for describing physical phenomena that appear at irregularly spaced times, such as the earthquakes. These processes are uniquely characterized by their conditional intensity, that is, by the probability that an event will occur in the infinitesimal interval (t, t+Δt), given the history of the process up tot. The seismic phenomenon displays different behaviours on different time and size scales; in particular, the occurrence of destructive shocks over some centuries in a seismogenic region may be explained by the elastic rebound theory. This theory has inspired the so-called stress release models: their conditional intensity translates the idea that an earthquake produces a sudden decrease in the amount of strain accumulated gradually over time along a fault, and the subsequent event occurs when the stress exceeds the strength of the medium. This study has a double objective: the formulation of these models in the Bayesian framework, and the assignment to each event of a mark, that is its magnitude, modelled through a distribution that depends at timet on the stress level accumulated up to that instant. The resulting parameter space is constrained and dependent on the data, complicating Bayesian computation and analysis. We have resorted to Monte Carlo methods to solve these problems.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.