Revisiting the existence of an effective stress for wet granular soils with micromechanics

A possible effective stress variable for wet granular materials is numerically investigated based on an adapted discrete element method (DEM) model for an ideal three‐phase system. The DEM simulations consider granular materials made of nearly monodisperse spherical particles, in the pendular regime with the pore fluid mixture consisting of distinct water menisci bridging particle pairs. The contact force‐related stress contribution to the total stresses is isolated and tested as the effective stress candidate for dense or loose systems. It is first recalled that this contact stress tensor is indeed an adequate effective stress that describes stress limit states of wet samples with the same Mohr‐Coulomb criterion associated with their dry counterparts. As for constitutive relationships, it is demonstrated that the contact stress tensor used in conjunction with dry constitutive relations does describe the strains of wet samples during an initial strain regime but not beyond. Outside this so‐called quasi‐static strain regime, whose extent is much greater for dense than loose materials, dramatic changes in the contact network prevent macroscale contact stress‐strain relationships to apply in the same manner to dry and unsaturated conditions. The presented numerical results also reveal unexpected constitutive bifurcations for the loose material, related to stick‐slip macrobehavior.     

Analytical study of the swing-by maneuver in an elliptical system

The objective of the present paper is to derive a set of analytical equations that describe a swing-by maneuver realized in a system of primaries that are in elliptical orbits. The goal is to calculate the variations of energy, velocity and angular momentum as a function of the usual basic parameters that describe the swing-by maneuver, as done before for the case of circular orbits. In elliptical orbits the velocity of the secondary body is no longer constant, as in the circular case, but it varies with the position of the secondary body in its orbit. As a consequence, the variations of energy, velocity and angular momentum become functions of the magnitude and the angle between the velocity vector of the secondary body and the line connecting the primaries. The “patched-conics” approach is used to obtain these equations. The configurations that result in maximum gains and losses of energy for the spacecraft are shown next, and a comparison between the results obtained using the analytical equations and numerical simulations are made to validate the method developed here.     

Fine-resolution analysis of exoplanetary distributions by wavelets: hints of an overshooting iceline accumulation

We investigate 1D exoplanetary distributions using a novel analysis algorithm based on the continuous wavelet transform. The analysis pipeline includes an estimation of the wavelet transform of the probability density function (p.d.f.) without pre-binning, use of optimized wavelets, a rigorous significance testing of the patterns revealed in the p.d.f., and an optimized minimum-noise reconstruction of the p.d.f. via matching pursuit iterations.In the distribution of orbital periods, \(P\), our analysis revealed a narrow subfamily of exoplanets within the broad family of “warm Jupiters”, or massive giants with \(P\gtrsim 300~\mbox{d}\), which are often deemed to be related with the iceline accumulation in a protoplanetary disk. We detected a p.d.f. pattern that represents an upturn followed by an overshooting peak spanning \(P\sim 300\mbox{--}600~\mbox{d}\), right beyond the “period valley”. It is separated from the other planets by p.d.f. concavities from both sides. It has at least 2-sigma significance.In the distribution of planet radii, \(R\), and using the California Kepler Survey sample properly cleaned, we confirm the hints of a bimodality with two peaks about \(R=1.3R_{\oplus }\) and \(R=2.4R_{ \oplus }\), and the “evaporation valley” between them. However, we obtain just a modest significance for this pattern, 2-sigma only at the best. Besides, our follow-up application of the Hartigan and Hartigan dip test for unimodality returns 3 per cent false alarm probability (merely 2.2-sigma significance), contrary to 0.14 per cent (or 3.2-sigma), as claimed by Fulton et al. (2017).     

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

Jurassic igneous rocks of the central Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (Iran) mark a propagating continental rift,not a magmatic arc

Jurassic igneous bodies of the Sanandaj–Sirjan zone (SaSZ) in SW Iran are generally considered as a magmatic arc but critical evaluation of modern geochronology, geochemistry and radiogenic isotopes challenges this conclusion. There is no evidence for sustained igneous activity along the ~1,200 km long SaSZ, as expected for a convergent plate margin; instead activity was brief at most sites and propagated NW at ~20 mm/a. Jurassic igneous rocks define a bimodal suite of gabbro‐diorite and granite. Chemical and isotopic compositions of mafic rocks indicate subcontinental lithospheric mantle sources that mostly lacked subduction‐related modifications. The arc‐like features of S‐type granites reflect massive involvement of Cadomian crust and younger sediments to generate felsic melts in response to mafic intrusions. We conclude that Jurassic SaSZ igneous activity occurred in a continental rift, not an arc. SaSZ igneous rocks do not indicate that subduction along the SW margin of Eurasia began in Jurassic time.     

Understanding the Role of Mass-Unloading in a Filament Eruption

We describe a partial filament eruption on 11 December 2011 that demonstrates that the inclusion of mass is an important next step for understanding solar eruptions. Observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) spacecraft were used to remove line-of-sight projection effects in filament motion and correlate the effect of plasma dynamics with the evolution of the filament height. Flux cancellation and nearby flux emergence are shown to have played a role in increasing the height of the filament prior to eruption. The two viewpoints allow the quantitative estimation of a large mass-unloading, the subsequent radial expansion, and the eruption of the filament to be investigated. A 1.8 to 4.1 lower-limit ratio between gravitational and magnetic-tension forces was found. We therefore conclude that following the loss-of-equilibrium of the flux-rope, the radial expansion of the flux-rope was restrained by the filamentary material until 70% of the mass had evacuated the structure through mass-unloading.     

Geometric Aspects and Testing of the Galactic Center Distance Determination from Spiral Arm Segments

We consider the problem of determining the geometric parameters of a Galactic spiral arm from its segment by including the distance to the spiral pole, i.e., the distance to the Galactic center (R₀). The question about the number of points belonging to one turn of a logarithmic spiral and defining this spiral as a geometric figure has been investigated numerically and analytically by assuming the direction to the spiral pole (to the Galactic center) to be known. Based on the results obtained, in an effort to test the new approach, we have constructed a simplified method of solving the problem that consists in finding the median of the values for each parameter from all possible triplets of objects in the spiral arm segment satisfying the condition for the angular distance between objects. Applying the method to the data on the spatial distribution of masers in the Perseus and Scutum arms (the catalogue by Reid et al. (2014)) has led to an estimate of R₀ = 8.8 ± 0.5 kpc. The parameters of five spiral arm segments have been determined from masers of the same catalogue. We have confirmed the difference between the spiral arms in pitch angle. The pitch angles of the arms revealed by masers are shown to generally correlate with R₀ in the sense that an increase in R₀ leads to a growth in the absolute values of the pitch angles.     

Influence of periodic orbits on the formation of giant planetary systems

The late-stage formation of giant planetary systems is rich in interesting dynamical mechanisms. Previous simulations of three giant planets initially on quasi-circular and quasi-coplanar orbits in the gas disc have shown that highly mutually inclined configurations can be formed, despite the strong eccentricity and inclination damping exerted by the disc. Much attention has been directed to inclination-type resonance, asking for large eccentricities to be acquired during the migration of the planets. Here we show that inclination excitation is also present at small to moderate eccentricities in two-planet systems that have previously experienced an ejection or a merging and are close to resonant commensurabilities at the end of the gas phase. We perform a dynamical analysis of these planetary systems, guided by the computation of planar families of periodic orbits and the bifurcation of families of spatial periodic orbits. We show that inclination excitation at small to moderate eccentricities can be produced by (temporary) capture in inclination-type resonance and the possible proximity of the non-coplanar systems to spatial periodic orbits contributes to maintaining their mutual inclination over long periods of time.     

Anomalous Decimeter Radio Noise from the Region of the Atmospheric Front: I. Characteristics of the Detected Radio Noise and Meteorological Parameters of the Frontal Cloudiness

An extraordinary experimental fact is presented and analyzed, namely, a rather intense broadband radio noise detected during the passage of an atmospheric front through the field of view of UHF antennas. Local atmospheric properties and possible sources of the extraordinary noise, including the thermal noise from cloudiness and extra-atmospheric sources, are considered. A conclusion is made about the presence of an additional nonthermal source of radio noise in the frontal cloudiness. According to the proposed hypothesis, these are multiple electric microdicharges on hydrometeors in the convective cloud.     

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.