Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?

Social scientists and science communicators are concerned about the apparent discrepancy between the scientific consensus on climate change (Anderegg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:12107–12109, 2010; Doran and Zimmerman EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 90:22–3, 2009) and the general public’s views (Knight Environ Sociol 2:101–113, 2016; Lee et al. Nat Clim Chang 5:1014–1020, 2015). It is reasoned that increased public awareness and perceived threat of climate change may pressure governments to enact policy to counteract climate change (e.g. setting stringent carbon emissions targets). Despite a logical link between public awareness and government-set emissions targets, this relationship remains untested. We examined the relationship between public awareness about and perceived threat of climate change and governmental emissions targets across 71 countries and 1 region. We found a positive association between the proportions of a country’s population that are aware of climate change and the unconditional emissions reduction targets set by that country in the Paris Agreement (Rogelj et al. Nature 534:631–639, 2016). However, the proportion of people in a country who perceive climate change as a personal threat was not associated with higher emissions reduction targets. Our results suggest that public awareness may be an important part of garnering the public support required for policies designed to mitigate climate change to succeed.     

Water Resources Implications of Global Warming: A U.S. Regional Perspective

The implications of global warming for the performance of six U.S. water resource systems are evaluated. The six case study sites represent a range of geographic and hydrologic, as well as institutional and social settings. Large, multi-reservoir systems (Columbia River, Missouri River, Apalachicola-Chatahoochee-Flint (ACF) Rivers), small, one or two reservoir systems (Tacoma and Boston) and medium size systems (Savannah River) are represented. The river basins range from mountainous to low relief and semi-humid to semi-arid, and the system operational purposes range from predominantly municipal to broadly multi-purpose. The studies inferred, using a chain of climate downscaling, hydrologic and water resources systems models, the sensitivity of six water resources systems to changes in precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. The climate change scenarios used in this study are based on results from transient climate change experiments performed with coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the 1995 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. An earlier doubled-CO₂ scenario from one of the GCMs was also used in the evaluation. The GCM scenarios were transferred to the local level using a simple downscaling approach that scales local weather variables by fixed monthly ratios (for precipitation) and fixed monthly shifts (for temperature). For those river basins where snow plays an important role in the current climate hydrology (Tacoma, Columbia, Missouri and, to a lesser extent, Boston) changes in temperature result in important changes in seasonal streamflow hydrographs. In these systems, spring snowmelt peaks are reduced and winter flows increase, on average. Changes in precipitation are generally reflected in the annual total runoff volumes more than in the seasonal shape of the hydrographs. In the Savannah and ACF systems, where snow plays a minor hydrological role, changes in hydrological response are linked more directly to temperature and precipitation changes. Effects on system performance varied from system to system, from GCM to GCM, and for each system operating objective (such as hydropower production, municipal and industrial supply, flood control, recreation, navigation and instream flow protection). Effects were generally smaller for the transient scenarios than for the doubled CO₂ scenario. In terms of streamflow, one of the transient scenarios tended to have increases at most sites, while another tended to have decreases at most sites. The third showed no general consistency over the six sites. Generally, the water resource system performance effects were determined by the hydrologic changes and the amount of buffering provided by the system's storage capacity. The effects of demand growth and other plausible future operational considerations were evaluated as well. For most sites, the effects of these non-climatic effects on future system performance would about equal or exceed the effects of climate change over system planning horizons.     

Dissolved organic matter variations in coastal plain wetland watersheds: The integrated role of hydrological connectivity,land use,and seasonality

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is integral to fluvial biogeochemical functions, and wetlands are broadly recognized as substantial sources of aromatic DOM to fluvial networks. Yet how land use change alters biogeochemical connectivity of upland wetlands to streams remains unclear. We studied depressional geographically isolated wetlands on the Delmarva Peninsula (USA) that are seasonally connected to downstream perennial waters via temporary channels. Composition and quantity of DOM from 4 forested, 4 agricultural, and 4 restored wetlands were assessed. Twenty perennial streams with watersheds containing wetlands were also sampled for DOM during times when surface connections were present versus absent. Perennial watersheds had varying amounts of forested wetland (0.4–82%) and agricultural (1–89%) cover. DOM was analysed with ultraviolet–visible spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, and bioassays. Forested wetlands exported more DOM that was more aromatic‐rich compared with agricultural and restored wetlands. DOM from the latter two could not be distinguished suggesting limited recovery of restored wetlands; DOM from both was more protein‐like than forested wetland DOM. Perennial streams with the highest wetland watershed cover had the highest DOC levels during all seasons; however, in fall and winter when temporary streams connect forested wetlands to perennial channels, perennial DOC concentrations peaked, and composition was linked to forested wetlands. In summer, when temporary stream connections were dry, perennial DOC concentrations were the lowest and protein‐like DOM levels the highest. Overall, DOC levels in perennial streams were linked to total wetland land cover, but the timing of peak fluxes of DOM was driven by wetland connectivity to perennial streams. Bioassays showed that DOM linked to wetlands was less available for microbial use than protein‐like DOM linked to agricultural land use. Together, this evidence indicates that geographically isolated wetlands have a significant impact on downstream water quality and ecosystem function mediated by temporary stream surface connections.     

An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Production and detection of carbon dioxide on Iapetus

Cassini VIMS detected carbon dioxide on the surface of Iapetus during its insertion orbit. We evaluated the CO₂ distribution on Iapetus and determined that it is concentrated almost exclusively on Iapetus’ dark material. VIMS spectra show a 4.27-μm feature with an absorption depth of 24%, which, if it were in the form of free ice, requires a layer 31 nm thick. Extrapolating for all dark material on Iapetus, the total observable CO₂ would be 2.3 × 10⁸ kg.Previous studies note that free CO₂ is unstable at 10 AU over geologic timescales. Carbon dioxide could, however, be stable if trapped or complexed, such as in inclusions or clathrates. While complexed CO₂ has a lower thermal volatility, loss due to photodissociation by UV radiation and gravitational escape would occur at a rate of 2.6 × 10⁷ kg year⁻¹. Thus, Iapetus’ entire inventory of surface CO₂ could be lost within a few decades.The high loss/destruction rate of CO₂ requires an active source. We conducted experiments that generated CO₂ by UV radiation of simulated icy regolith under Iapetus-like conditions. The simulated regolith was created by flash-freezing degassed water, crushing it into sub-millimeter sized particles, and then mixing it with isotopically labeled amorphous carbon (¹³C) dust. These samples were placed in a vacuum chamber and cooled to temperatures between 50 K and 160 K. The samples were irradiated with UV light, and the products were measured using a mass spectrometer, from which we measured ¹³CO₂ production at a rate of 2.0 × 10¹² mol s⁻¹. Extrapolating to Iapetus and adjusting for the solar UV intensity and Iapetus’ surface area, we calculated that CO₂ production for the entire surface would be 1.1 × 10⁷ kg year⁻¹, which is only a factor of two less than the loss rate. As such, UV photochemical generation of CO₂ is a plausible source of the detected CO₂.     

Book review

Offshore Soil Mechanics edited by Philip George and David Wood. Cambridge University Engineering Department and Lloyd's Register of Shipping, London, 1976. 468 pp. £7.50 + shipping.

Beach Processes and Sedimentation by Paul D. Komar. Prentice‐Hall, Inc. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1976. 429 pp., $26.95.     

High‐frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics,primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river‐system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub‐daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190 000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Although 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in‐stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic, and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. © 2015 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Non‐uniqueness with refraction inversion – a syncline model study

Non‐uniqueness occurs with the 1D parametrization of refraction traveltime graphs in the vertical dimension and with the 2D lateral resolution of individual layers in the horizontal dimension. The most common source of non‐uniqueness is the inversion algorithm used to generate the starting model. This study applies 1D, 1.5D and 2D inversion algorithms to traveltime data for a syncline (2D) model, in order to generate starting models for wave path eikonal traveltime tomography. The 1D tau‐p algorithm produced a tomogram with an anticline rather than a syncline and an artefact with a high seismic velocity. The 2D generalized reciprocal method generated tomograms that accurately reproduced the syncline, together with narrow regions at the thalweg with seismic velocities that are less than and greater than the true seismic velocities as well as the true values. It is concluded that 2D inversion algorithms, which explicitly identify forward and reverse traveltime data, are required to generate useful starting models in the near‐surface where irregular refractors are common. The most likely tomogram can be selected as either the simplest model or with a priori information, such as head wave amplitudes. The determination of vertical velocity functions within individual layers is also subject to non‐uniqueness. Depths computed with vertical velocity gradients, which are the default with many tomography programs, are generally 50% greater than those computed with constant velocities for the same traveltime data. The average vertical velocity provides a more accurate measure of depth estimates, where it can be derived. Non‐uniqueness is a fundamental reality with the inversion of all near‐surface seismic refraction data. Unless specific measures are taken to explicitly address non‐uniqueness, then the production of a single refraction tomogram, which fits the traveltime data to sufficient accuracy, does not necessarily demonstrate that the result is either ‘correct’ or the most probable.     

A drought outlook study in Korea

Abstract

Techniques are proposed for developing a monthly and weekly drought outlook and the drought outlook components are evaluated. A drought index, the surface water supply index (SWSI) was modified and used for the drought outlook. A water balance model (abcd) was successfully calibrated using a regional regression, including monthly and weekly factors, and was used to convert meteorology to hydrology. For the monthly drought outlook, an ensemble technique was applied, both with and without monthly industrial meteorology information (MIMI). For the weekly drought outlook, a deterministic forecasting technique was applied employing the Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GDAPS). The methodologies were applied to the Geum River basin in Korea. While only the weekly outlook using the GDAPS has sufficient forecasting capability to suggest it might be useful, the accuracy of the monthly drought outlook is expected to improve as the climate forecast accuracy increases.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Kim, Y.-O., Lee, J.-K., and Palmer, R.N., 2012. A drought outlook study in Korea. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1141–1153.     

Short-term residence and movement patterns of the annular seabream Diplodus annularis in a temperate marine reserve

The short-term movements of a small temperate fish, the annular seabream Diplodus annularis (Linnaeus 1758), were examined using standard tag-recapture and passive acoustic telemetry in Palma Bay (NW Mediterranean), a marine protected area (MPA). The study aimed to provide valuable information for assessing the recreational fishery and its results suggest that MPAs can be used to protect the adult stock of D. annularis. All the fish tagged with standard tags were recaptured near the release locations, with a maximum distance of ∼300 m. The maximum time between release and recapture was 185 d. Two different arrays of acoustic receivers were deployed, one in 2008 and another in 2009, within the MPA. Twenty adults were surgically tagged with acoustic transmitters. Fish monitored in 2008 (n = 12) were translocated from the point of capture to analyse the movement behaviour after artificial displacement. Upon release at displaced locations, 67% of the fish moved towards the original capture location using a time of return that ranged from 0.75 to 15.25 h. Fish monitored in 2009 (n = 8) were released at the point of capture. They showed high site fidelity with a maximum period of 27 d between the first time and the last time they were detected.