Seismicity in the block mountains between Halle and Leipzig,Central Germany: centroid moment tensors,ground motion simulation,and felt intensities of two <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≈ 3 earthquakes in 2015 and 2017

On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M_W =?2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstädt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I₀ = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M_W =?3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I₀ = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M_W ≈?5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.     

Morphological controls on the dynamics of carbonate landscapes under a mediterranean climate

The influence of the morphological setting on the denudation of carbonate landscapes and the respective contributions of mechanical and chemical weathering processes are still debated. We have addressed these questions by measuring ³⁶Cl concentrations in 40 samples from the Luberon mountain, SE France, to constrain the denudation of various landscape elements. We observe a clear contrast between the local denudation rates from the flat summit surface, clustered around 30 mm/ka, and the basin‐average denudation rates across the flanks, ranging from 100 to 200 mm/ka. This difference highlights the transient evolution of the range, whose topography is still adjusting to previous uplift events. Such a pattern also suggests that carbonate dissolution is not the only driver of denudation in this setting, which appears to be significantly controlled by slope‐dependent processes.     

Coupled damage and plasticity modelling in transient dynamic analysis of concrete

In a concrete structure subjected to an explosion, for example a concrete slab, the material is subjected to various states of stress which lead to many modes of rupture. Closer to the explosive, a state of strong hydrostatic compression is observed. This state of stress produces an irreversible compaction of the material. Away from the zone of explosion, confinement decreases and the material undergoes compression with a state of stress, which is slightly triaxial. Finally, the compression wave can be reflected on a free surface and becomes a tensile wave, which by interaction with the compression wave, produces scabbing. We present, in this paper, a model aimed at describing these three failure modes. It is based on visco‐plasticity and rate dependent damage in which a homogenization method is used in order to include the variation of the material porosity due to compaction. The model predictions are compared with several experiments performed on the same concrete. Computations of split Hopkinson tests on confined concrete, a tensile test with scabbing, and an explosion on a concrete slab are presented. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparisons among the five ground-motion models developed using RESORCE for the prediction of response spectral accelerations due to earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East

This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.     

An absolute calibration site for radar altimeters in the continental domain: Lake Issykkul in Central Asia

Altimetry missions such as Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, GFO and ENVISAT have been widely used in the continental domain over lakes, rivers and wetland although they were mostly dedicated to oceanic studies. Knowledge of the instrumental biases is a key issue. Numerous sites have been dedicated to calibration purposes, either in the oceanic domain (Harvest offshore platform in California, Corsica, Bass Strait in Australia) or over lakes (Lake Erie in United States). A new site (Lake Issykkul in Kirghizstan) is proposed for calibration in the continental domain. This lake is covered by past (T/P) and current radar altimetry satellites (Jason-1, T/P, GFO, and ENVISAT). Several in situ water levels and local meteorological variables are available at the site. Located in a mountainous area, it offers an opportunity for calibration far away from all other existing sites and very different environment contexts. Two GPS campaigns have been conducted on the lake in 2004 and in 2005. They consisted of cruises with stations installed onboard a boat following the satellite ground tracks, and onshore settings. This enabled estimating a bias for each altimeter and each tracking algorithm available. Biases obtained for Envisat, GFO, T/P and Jason-1 using the default ocean tracker (respectively, 48.1 ± 6.6, 7.5 ± 4.0, 0 ± 4.3 and 7.0 ± 5.5 cm) agree with biases published at the other calibration sites. For Jason-1, there is a significant disagreement with results obtained in the ocean field (7 cm instead of 13 cm) but is coherent with bias obtained on the Lake Erie site. Erroneous estimates of the sea state bias correction from non-oceanic-like waveforms is discussed as a possible explanation. Errors in the ionospheric, wet and dry tropospheric corrections for the continental domain are also highlighted and quantified.     

Comparison of theory and experiment for solute transport in weakly heterogeneous bimodal porous media

In this work, the influence of non-equilibrium effects on solute transport in a weakly heterogeneous medium is discussed. Three macro-scale models (upscaled via the volume averaging technique) are investigated: (i) the two-equation non-equilibrium model, (ii) the one-equation asymptotic model and (iii) the one-equation local equilibrium model. The relevance of each of these models to the experimental system conditions (duration of the pulse injection, dispersivity values…) is analyzed. The numerical results predicted by these macroscale models are compared directly with the experimental data (breakthrough curves). Our results suggest that the preasymptotic zone (for which a non-Fickian model is required) increases as the solute input pulse time decreases. Beyond this limit, the asymptotic regime is recovered. A comparison with the results issued from the stochastic theory for this regime is performed. Results predicted by both approaches (volume averaging method and stochastic analysis) are found to be consistent.     

Mean meridional currents in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic

Ship-based acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) velocity measurements collected by several major field programs in the tropical Atlantic are averaged and combined with estimates of the mean near-surface velocity derived from drifters and Argo float surface drifts (ADCP+D) to describe the mean cross-equatorial and vertical structure of the meridional currents along 23°W and 10°W. Data from moored ADCPs and fixed-depth current meters, a satellite-derived velocity product, and a global ocean reanalysis were additionally used to evaluate the mean ADCP+D meridional velocity. The dominant circulation features in the long-term mean ADCP+D meridional velocity in the upper 100 m are the tropical cells (TCs) located approximately between 5°S and 5°N, with near-surface poleward flow and subsurface equatorward flow that is stronger and shallower in the northern cell compared to the southern cell. The thickness of the surface limb of the TCs decreases and the northern cell is found to shift further south of the equator from the central to eastern tropical Atlantic. Analysis of two-season means estimated from the ship-based ADCP, near-surface drift, and moored velocity data, as well as the simulated fields, indicates that the maximum poleward velocity in the surface limb of the TCs intensifies during December–May along 23°W largely due to seasonal compensation between the geostrophic and ageostrophic (or wind-driven) components of the meridional velocity, whereas the maximum equatorward flow in the subsurface limb of the northern cell intensifies during June–November along both 23°W and 10°W due to the seasonality of the geostrophic meridional velocity.     

A Lagrangian Stochastic Model for Heavy Particle Dispersion in the Atmospheric Marine Boundary Layer

The dispersion of heavy particles and pollutants is often simulated with Lagrangian stochastic (LS) models. Although these models have been employed successfully over land, the free surface at the air-sea interface complicates the implementation of traditional LS models. We present an adaptation of traditional LS models to the atmospheric marine boundary layer (MBL), where the bottom boundary is represented by a realistic wavy surface that moves and deforms. In addition, the correlation function for the turbulent flow following a particle is extended to the anisotropic, unsteady case. Our new model reproduces behaviour for Lagrangian turbulence in a stratified air flow that departs only slightly from the expected behaviour in isotropic turbulence. When solving for the trajectory of a heavy particle in the air flow, the modelled turbulent forcing on the particle also behaves remarkably well. For example, the spectrum of the turbulence at the particle location follows that of a massless particle for time scales approximately larger than the Stokes’ particle response time. We anticipate that this model will prove especially useful in the context of sea-spray dispersion and its associated momentum, sensible and latent heat, and gas fluxes between spray droplets and the atmosphere.     

Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales

This paper evaluates the performances of four cyclogenesis indices against observed tropical cyclone genesis on a global scale over the period 1979–2001. These indices are: the Genesis Potential Index; the Yearly Genesis Parameter; the Modified Yearly Convective Genesis Potential Index; and the Tippett et al. Index (J Clim, 2011), hereafter referred to as TCS. Choosing ERA40, NCEP2, NCEP or JRA25 reanalysis to calculate these indices can yield regional differences but overall does not change the main conclusions arising from this study. By contrast, differences between indices are large and vary depending on the regions and on the timescales considered. All indices except the TCS show an equatorward bias in mean cyclogenesis, especially in the northern hemisphere where this bias can reach 5°. Mean simulated genesis numbers for all indices exhibit large regional discrepancies, which can commonly reach up to ±50%. For the seasonal timescales on which the indices are historically fitted, performances also vary widely in terms of amplitude although in general they all reproduce the cyclogenesis seasonality adequately. At the seasonal scale, the TCS seems to be the best fitted index overall. The most striking feature at interannual scales is the inability of all indices to reproduce the observed cyclogenesis amplitude. The indices also lack the ability to reproduce the general interannual phase variability, but they do, however, acceptably reproduce the phase variability linked to El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a major driver of tropical cyclones interannual variations. In terms of cyclogenesis mechanisms that can be inferred from the analysis of the index terms, there are wide variations from one index to another at seasonal and interannual timescales and caution is advised when using these terms from one index only. They do, however, show a very good coherence at ENSO scale thus inspiring confidence in the mechanism interpretations that can be obtained by the use of any index. Finally, part of the gap between the observed and simulated cyclogenesis amplitudes may be attributable to stochastic processes, which cannot be inferred from environmental indices that only represent a potential for cyclogenesis.     

The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10–20°N, 20–80°W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169–1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5°) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig.?1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered.