Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin

The sustainability of social-ecological systems depends on river flows being maintained within a range to which those systems are adapted. In order to determine the extent of this natural range of variation, we assess ecological flow thresholds and the occurrence of potentially damaging flood events to society in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra river basin. The ecological flow threshold was calculated using twenty-two ‘Range of Variability (RVA)’ parameters, considering the range between?±?1 standard deviation from the mean of the natural flow. Damaging flood events were calculated using flood frequency analysis of Annual Maxima series and using the flood classification of Bangladesh. The climate change impacts on future river flow were calculated by using a weighted ensemble analysis of twelve global circulation models (GCMs) outputs driving a large-scale hydrologic model. The simulated climate change induced altered flow regime of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin was then investigated and compared with the calculated threshold flows. The results demonstrate that various parameters including the monthly mean of low flow (January, February and March) and high flow (June, July and August) periods, the 7-day average minimum flow, and the yearly maximum flow will exceed the threshold conditions by 1956–1995 under the business-as-usual A1B and A2 future scenarios. The results have a number of policy level implications for government agencies of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin, specifically for Bangladesh. The calculated thresholds may be used as a good basis for negotiations with other riparian countries of the basin. The methodological approach presented in this study can be applied to other river basins and provide a useful basis for transboundary water resources management.     

Impacts of warm and cold situations in the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979–2006) and climate simulations

Using both empirical and numerical ensemble approaches this study focuses on the Mediterranean/West African relationship in northern summer. Statistical analyses utilize skin temperature, sea surface temperature, in situ and satellite rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) observations and reanalyzed data winds and specific humidity on isobaric surfaces. Numerical investigations are based on a large set of sensitivity experiments performed on four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM): ARPEGE-Climat3, ECHAM4, LMDZ4 and UCLA7.3. Model outputs are compared to observations, discussed model by model and with an ensemble (multi-model) approach. As in previous studies the anomalous Mediterranean warm events are associated with specific impacts over the African monsoon region, i.e., a more intense monsoon, enhanced flux convergence and ascendances around the ITCZ, a strengthening of low level moisture advection and a more northward location of ascending motion in West Africa. The results show also new features (1) thermal variability observed in the two Mediterranean basins has unalike impacts, i.e. the western Mediterranean covaries with convection in Gulf of Guinea, while the eastern Mediterranean can be interpreted as Sahelian thermal-forcing; (2) although observations show symmetry between warming and cooling, modelling evidences only support the eastern warming influence; (3) anomalous East warm situations are associated with a more northward migration of the monsoon system accompanied by enhanced southwertely flow and weakened northeasterly climatological wind; (4) the multi-model response shows that anomalous East warm surface temperatures generate an enhancement of the overturning circulation in low and high levels, an increase in TEJ (Tropical Eeasterly Jet) and a decrease in AEJ (African Eeasterly Jet).     

Enrichment of seismic ground motion databases using Karhunen–Loève expansion

Best estimate seismic analysis are generally based on time‐domain simulations of structural responses. The seismic load is then modeled by a stochastic process representing ground motion. For this purpose, the analyst can use recorded accelerograms or work with synthetically generated ones. The number of ground motion time‐histories available for a given scenario and site condition is limited and generally not sufficient for carrying out more advanced probabilistic structural response analysis. It is then necessary to have at our disposal methods that allow for generating synthetic accelerograms that realistically characterize earthquake ground motions. However, most of the methods proposed in literature for generating synthetic accelerograms do not accurately reproduce the natural variability of ground motion parameters (such as PGA, cumulative absolute velocity, and Arias intensity) observed for recorded time histories. In this paper, we introduce a new method for generating synthetic ground motion, based on Karhunen‐Loève decomposition and a non‐Gaussian stochastic model. The proposed method enables the structural analyst to simulate ground motion time histories featuring the properties mentioned above. To demonstrate its capability, we study the influence of the simulation method on different ground motion parameters and on soil response spectra. We finally compute fragility curves to illustrate the practical application of the proposed method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abrupt onset of carbonate deposition in Lake Kivu during the 1960s: response to recent environmental changes

This study interprets the recent history of Lake Kivu, a tropical lake in the East African Rift Valley. The current gross sedimentation was characterized from a moored sediment trap array deployed over 2 years. The past net sedimentation was investigated with three short cores from two different basins. Diatom assemblages from cores were interpreted as reflecting changes in mixing depth, surface salinity and nutrient availability. The contemporary sediment trap data indicate seasonal variability, governed by diatom blooms during the annual mixing in the dry season, similar to Lakes Malawi and Tanganyika. The ratio of settling fluxes to net sediment accumulation rates implies mineralization rates of 80–90% at the sediment-water interface. The sediment cores revealed an abrupt change ~40 years ago, when carbonate precipitation started. Since the 1960s, deep-water methane concentrations, nutrient fluxes and soil mineral inputs have increased considerably and diatom assemblages have altered. These modifications probably resulted from a combination of three factors, commonly altering lake systems: the introduction of a non-native fish species, eutrophication, and hydrological changes inducing greater upwelling. Both the fish introduction and increased rainfall occurred at the time when the onset of carbonate precipitation was observed, whereas catchment population growth accompanied by intensified land use increased the flux of soil minerals already since the early twentieth century due to more intense erosion.     

Tectono‐sedimentary evolution of the western Corinth rift (Central Greece)

The Corinth rift (Greece) is one of the world's most active rifts. The early Plio‐Pleistocene rift is preserved in the northern Peloponnese peninsula, south of the active Corinth rift. Although chronostratigraphic resolution is limited, new structural, stratigraphic and sedimentological data for an area >400 km² record early rift evolution in three phases separated by distinct episodes of extension rate acceleration and northward fault migration associated with major erosion. Minimum total N–S extension is estimated at 6.4–7.7 km. The earliest asymmetrical, broad rift accommodated slow extension (0.6–1 mm a^?1) over >3 Myrs and closed to the west. North‐dipping faults with throws of 1000–2200 m defined narrow blocks (4–7 km) with little footwall relief. A N‐NE flowing antecedent river system infilled significant inherited relief (Lower group). In the earliest Pleistocene, significant fluvial incision coincided with a 15 km northward rift margin migration. Extension rates increased to 2–2.5 mm a^?1. The antecedent rivers then built giant Gilbert‐type fan deltas (Middle group) north into a deepening lacustrine/marine basin. N‐dipping, basin margin faults accommodated throws <1500 m. Delta architecture records initiation, growth and death of this fault system over ca. 800 ka. In the Middle Pleistocene, the rift margin again migrated 5 km north. Extension rate increased to 3.4–4.8 mm a^?1. This transition may correspond to an unconformity in offshore lithostratigraphy. Middle group deltas were uplifted and incised as new hangingwall deltas built into the Gulf (Upper group). A final increase to present‐day extension rates (11–16 mm a^?1) probably occurred in the Holocene. Fault and fault block dimensions did not change significantly with time suggesting control by crustal rheological layering. Extension rate acceleration may be due to strain softening or to regional tectonic factors.     

The ECORS-Truc Vert’08 nearshore field experiment: presentation of a three-dimensional morphologic system in a macro-tidal environment during consecutive extreme storm conditions

A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert’08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of the natural system. This experiment is unique when compared with existing experiments because of the simultaneous investigation of processes at different scales, both spatially (from ripples to sand banks) and temporally (from single swash events to several spring-neap tidal cycles, including a major storm event). The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on the experiment by providing detailed presentation of the instrument layout and snapshots of preliminary results.     

The potential lateral growth of lithalsas

The lithalsas in the Hudson Bay region of northern Québec, Canada, are the closest modern analogs of ancient features that collapsed to form conspicuous circular depressions (“viviers”) common in the Hautes-Fagnes, a region in Belgium. Observations made in both regions are complementary and suggest that these mounds formed by frost heaving displacing soil not only upward, as previously assumed, but also laterally. This lateral displacement is consistent with diverse observations and inferences, which include (1) the simple rounded outline, either circular or oval, typical of both active and relic lithalsas; (2) evidence of local lateral extension inferred from exposures of the relic forms; (3) the relative inefficiency of solifluction in accumulating surface material to form the peripheral ramparts of remnant lithalsas due to the very gentle slopes of the mounds; and (4) the dip of ice lenses within a lithalsa in the Hudson Bay region, perhaps indicating that the freezing front dipped outward along its periphery. The growth of segregation ice is the primary driver for the vertical growth and lateral enlargement of a lithalsa.