NAOC 1m反射望远镜CCD相机的性能研究

研究了国家天文台兴隆观测基地1m反射望远镜新安装的VersArray1340×1300BCCD照相机的性能。它有几乎没有图案的良好本底（bias），极低的读出噪声和暗流。用平场序列露光来检测其线性时，能得到线性良好的转移曲线（transfercurve）。但是，不论在平场露光（面光源）还是在恒星（点光源）的观测中，当像元值约高于55000adu时（增益3．7e^-／adu），都会产生溢出。此时CCD并未满井。因此，使用它做点扩散函数分析研究时，要避免使用太亮的星像。不过，由于电荷守恒原理，对产生溢出的孤立亮星像，仍然可以做孔径测光。此外，该相机的快门函数也已测定。     

2009年冬、夏季南海北部超微型浮游生物的分布特征及其环境相关分析

2009年2月(冬季)和8月(夏季)在南海北部海域(nSCS)采用流式细胞术对聚球藻、原绿球藻、超微型光合真核生物3类超微型光合浮游生物和异养浮游细菌的丰度和碳生物量的时空分布特征进行了研究,并分析了其与环境因子之间的关系。结果表明,夏季聚球藻和原绿球藻的平均丰度高于冬季,超微型光合真核生物和异养浮游细菌的丰度反之,为冬季高于夏季。聚球藻、超微型光合真核生物和异养浮游细菌在富营养的近岸陆架海域丰度较高,而原绿球藻高丰度则出现在陆坡开阔海域。在垂直分布上,聚球藻主要分布在跃层以上,跃层以下丰度迅速降低;原绿球藻高丰度主要出现在真光层底部;超微型光合真核生物在水层中的高值同样出现在真光层底部,且与Pico级份叶绿素a浓度分布一致;异养浮游细菌在水体中的分布与聚球藻类似。这些分布格局的差异,取决于环境条件的变化和4类超微型浮游生物生态生理适应性的差异。在超微型光合浮游生物群落中,各类群碳生物量的贡献因季节和海域类型的不同而发生变化:聚球藻在夏季近岸陆架区占超微型光合浮游生物总碳生物量的41%,原绿球藻在陆坡开阔海成为主要贡献者(50%),超微型光合真核生物碳生物量以冬季为高(在近岸陆架区占比68%)。冬、夏季异养浮游细菌碳生物量均高于超微型光合浮游生物碳生物量。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

一次华北暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6 h分析资料、微波辐射计资料及FY-2E气象卫星及雷达探测资料,针对2013年6月4日发生在北京及周边地区的一次暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用进行了天气学诊断分析,结果表明:对流性暴雨过程伴随有源自东北平原的边界层东风活动,东风活动具有尺度小、降温明显和湿度大等特点。暴雨过程是边界层东风和中低空暖式切变线、偏南风急流和500 hPa短波槽共同作用的结果;东风湿冷空气的锋面抬升和地形抬升作用共同加强了中低层暖湿气流的辐合上升运动,同时东风冷垫和地形抬升作用触发了雷暴的再次发生,相应雷暴具有高架对流特点。东风气流起到了边界层水汽输送作用,中低层偏南暖湿气流为暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽和不稳定层结条件。     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

“75·8”持续性强降水事件及其大尺度水汽输送特征

首先研究了河南"75·8"强降水事件的极端异常特征,然后从水汽通量的角度定性分析这次事件的水汽输送特征,最后采用了Hysplit模型定量分析了不同源地的水汽来源对河南"75·8"强降水的贡献率。研究表明,1975年8月5-8日在河南省发生的是一次大范围持续性极端降水过程,事件发生期间区域平均降水程度超过其气候平均值3倍标准差。强降水事件是在中高纬度环流异常和台风共同作用下发生的,贝加尔湖以东阻塞高压和副热带高压合并阻挡了7503号台风北上。定量计算结果进一步表明,河南"75·8"强降水的水汽来源与7503号台风具有十分密切的联系。     

海南岛附近四季风场的中尺度环流

利用一层σ坐标原始方程数值诊断模式研究海南岛，雷州半岛及其四周海域的地面风场特征，在春夏秋冬四季典型盛行气流下试验，均明显呈现绕流，爬坡，辐合线、海陆风和山谷风效应，看出在不同季节下的中尺度环流存在一定的差异。试验表明，区域内的复杂地形和海陆分布是形成各种中尺度环流的重要原因，同时，揭示出本地气候分布的特征与中尺度环流间存在的密切的关系。     

Lookback time as a test for f(R) gravity in the Palatini approach

We use the recently released data of lookback time (LT)-redshift relation, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter and the baryon acoustic oscillation measurements to constrain cosmological parameters of f (R) gravity in the Palatini formalism by considering the f (R) form of type (a) f (R) = R β/Rn and (b) f (R) = R + α ln R β. Under the assumption of a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universe, we achieved the best fitting results of the free parameters (Ωm0, n) for (a) and (Ωm0, α) for (b). We find tha...