A low-carbon society: global visions,pathways, and challenges

The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS.

Policy relevance

Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced.     

Population dynamics of phytoplankton, heterotrophic bacteria, and viruses during the spring bloom in the western subarctic Pacific

We characterized the community composition of phytoplankton in the western subarctic Pacific from the pre-bloom to the decline phase of the spring bloom with special reference to decreases in the silicic acid concentration in surface waters as an index for diatom bloom development. Furthermore, responses of heterotrophic bacteria and viruses to the spring bloom were also concomitantly investigated. Under pre-bloom conditions when nutrients were abundant but the surface mixed layer depth was relatively deep, chlorophyll (Chl) a concentrations were consistently low and green algae (chlorophytes and prasinophytes), cryptophytes, and diatoms were predominant in the phytoplankton assemblages as estimated by algal pigment signatures. Together with the shallowing of the mixed layer depth and the decrease in silicic acid concentration, diatoms bloomed remarkably in the Oyashio region, though the magnitude of the bloom in the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition (hereafter Transition) region was relatively small. A total of 77 diatom species were identified, with the bloom-forming diatoms mainly consisting of Thalassiosira, Chaetoceros, and Fragilariopsis species. It has become evident that the carotenoid fucoxanthin can serve as a strong indicator of the diatom carbon biomass during the spring diatom bloom. Differences in the species richness of diatoms among stations generally enabled us to separate the Oyashio bloom stations from the Transition and the Oyashio pre-bloom stations. Relatively high values of the Shannon-Wiener index for the diatom species were also maintained during the Oyashio bloom, indicating that a wide variety of species then shared dominance. In the decline phase of the Oyashio bloom when surface nutrient concentrations decreased, senescent diatom cells increased, as inferred from the levels of chlorophyllide a. Although the cell density of heterotrophic bacteria changed little with the development of the diatom bloom, viral abundance increased toward the end of the bloom, suggesting an increased likelihood of mortality among organisms including diatoms resulting from viral infection. This is the first report on the microbial trophodynamics, including viruses, during the spring diatom bloom in the western subarctic Pacific.     

Fine-scale chemostratigraphy of cross-sectioned hydrogenous ferromanganese nodules from the western North Pacific

A broad area densely covered by ferromanganese nodules was recently discovered around Minamitorishima (Marcus) Island, representing a high-potential metal resource, particularly for Co, Ni, Mo, and W. We studied 16 nodule samples from nodule fields around Minamitorishima Island. To define the fine-scale chemostratigraphy of the nodules, polished cross-sections of the samples were analyzed by microfocus X-ray fluorescence. Our results show that a general pattern of compositional variation was common throughout the growth history of the nodules in all the regions we studied. Chemical mapping clarified changes in the chemical signature and proportion of five lithological components throughout the growth history: Mn represented columnar δ-MnO₂; Fe represented layered amorphous FeOOH*xH₂O; Ti represented TiO₂*2H₂O intergrown with an amorphous FeOOH phase; P, Ca and Y represented particles of biogenic calcium phosphate; and Si, Al, K, Cu, and Ni represented pelagic sediment infills. We proposed a method for a creating a multi-dimensional compositional map of the fine-scale chemostratigraphy observed in the ferromanganese oxide layers on the basis of merging the mapped Mn, Fe, Ti, P, Si and Cu intensities. Multi-dimensional compositional mapping of the sampled nodules from the western North Pacific revealed two fundamental findings: (1) previously recognized first-order Fe–Mn layers, L0, L1, and L2, were further divided into two, three, and four sublayers, respectively, and (2) a delayed supply of material to be nuclei of nodule or a growth hiatus of Fe–Mn layer(s), leading to missing sublayers in the layers L0 and L2, regulated the nodule size. In contrast, layer L1, which does not have any missing sublayers, was commonly observed in the samples for this study and has been reported in studies of other regions in the western Pacific. We propose, therefore, that the layer L1 is a key facies for examining chemostratigraphic correlations with other areas of seafloor.     

Potential Influence of Ocean Acidification on Deep-Sea Fe–Mn Nodules and Pelagic Clays: An Improved Assessment by Using Artificial Seawater

In order to assess the potential risk of metal release from deep-sea sediments in response to pH decrease in seawater, the mobility of elements from ferromanganese (Fe–Mn) nodules and pelagic clays was examined. Two geochemical reference samples (JMn-1 and JMS-2) were reacted with the pH-controlled artificial seawater (ASW) using a CO₂-induced pH regulation system. Our experiments demonstrated that deep-sea sediments have weak buffer capacities by acid–base dissociation of surface hydroxyl groups on metal oxides/oxyhydroxides and silicate minerals. Element concentrations in the ASW were mainly controlled by elemental speciation in the solid phase and sorption–desorption reaction between the charged solid surface and ion species in the ASW. These results indicated that the release of heavy metals such as Mn, Cu, Zn and Cd should be taken into consideration when assessing the influence of ocean acidification on deep-sea environment.     

Gender analysis of fear and mobility in the context of ethnic conflict in Kayah State,Myanmar

Kayah State has faced prolonged conflict for the past six decades. The conflict has affected all the people of Kayah, though the nature and extent of the impact varies by age, gender and class. Caught between the ethnic armed groups and military and brutalized by both, the people of Kayah have struggled to survive. The conflict has further restricted the mobility of an already isolated people. This lack of mobility has affected every aspect of their lives including livelihood, access to education and markets, and religious and social networks. Women's mobility is more restricted than that of men, and the different levels of mobility have in turn led to different strategies to survive the conflict. While men can leave the area for work and education, women cannot. Staying in the conflict zone increases both their vulnerability and isolation. The increased isolation affects their position within the family and community, as they have less confidence, voice and decision‐making power. Women use silence and submissiveness to escape from both the military and the ethnic armed groups. However, such strategies, in the long term, continue to perpetuate women's subordinate position in society. They also reinforce women's powerlessness and maintain the current power structures and hierarchies.     

Crustal structure of the ultra-slow spreading Knipovich Ridge,North Atlantic,along a presumed ridge segment center

A combined ocean bottom seismometer, multichannel seismic reflection and gravity study has been carried out along the spreading direction of the Knipovich Ridge over a topographic high that defines a segment center. The youngest parts of the crust in the immediate vicinity of the ridge reveal fractured Oceanic Layer 2 and thermally expanded and possibly serpentinized Oceanic Layer 3. The mature part of the crust has normal thickness and seismic velocities with no significant crustal thickness and seismic velocity variations. Mature Oceanic Layer 2 is in addition broken into several rotated fault blocks. Comparison with a profile acquired ~40 km north of the segment center reveals significant differences. Along this profile, reported earlier, periods of slower spreading led to generation of thin crust with a high P-wave velocity (Vp), composed of a mixture of gabbro and serpentinized mantle, while periods of faster spreading led to generation of more normal gabbroic crust. For the profile across the segment center no clear relation exists between spreading rate and crustal thickness and seismic velocity. In this study we have found that higher magmatism may lead to generation of oceanic crust with normal thickness even at ultra-slow spreading rates.     

Crustal structure of the ultra-slow spreading Knipovich Ridge,North Atlantic,along a presumed amagmatic portion of oceanic crustal formation

The ultra-slow, asymmetrically-spreading Knipovich Ridge is the northernmost part of the Mid Atlantic ridge system. In the autumn of 2002 a combined ocean-bottom seismometer multichannel seismic (OBS/MCS) and gravity survey along the spreading direction of the Knipovich Ridge was carried out. The main objective of the study was to gain an insight into the crustal structure and composition of what is assumed to be an amagmatic segment of oceanic crust. P-wave velocity and Vp/Vs models were built and complemented by a gravity model. The 190 km long transect reveals a much more complex crustal structure than anticipated. The magmatic crust is thinner than the global average of 7.1 ± 1.0 km. The young fractured portion of Oceanic Layer 2 has low seismic velocities while the older part has normal seismic velocities and is broken into several rotated fault blocks seen as thickness variations of Layer 2. The youngest part of Oceanic Layer 3 is also dominated by low velocities, indicative of fracturing, seawater circulation and thermal expansion. The remaining portion of Layer 3 exhibits inverse variations in thickness and seismic velocity. This is explained by a sequence of periods of faster spreading (estimated to be up to 8 mm/year from interpretation of magnetic anomalies) when more normal gabbroic crust was being generated and periods of slower spreading (5.5 mm/year) when amagmatic stretching and serpentinization of the upper mantle occurred, and crust composed of mixed gabbro and serpentinized mantle was generated. The volumetric changes and upward fluid migration, associated with the process of serpentinization in this part of the crust, caused disruption to the overlying sedimentary layers.