The influence of wave-current sea states on the reliability estimates of offshore towers

Since offshore towers are high-cost, high-risk structures, reliability analysis is of great importance in their design. This paper presents a possible practical approach to certify a design through selective critical member reliability estimates. After a brief review of current research in this field, the authors outline a procedure for reliability estimation of structural members in extreme stress and fatigue limit states. A spectral approach for the extreme response statistics with stochastic loading is described. The reliabilities are computed by the Level II first-order second moment (advanced) method. The fatigue reliability is estimated with a narrow-banded stress assumption with discrete, but significant sea states within the life of the structure. Two numerical examples, a three shallow water model and a two-dimensional deep water model are presented along with the influences of stochastic variables (sea state, current, tubular member diameter) on reliabilities (extreme stress and fatigue damage).     

Sea Level Variations Associated with Upwelling/ Downwelling Along the West Coast of India

A three-dimensional numerical model is developed and used to study the coastal upwelling processes and corresponding seasonal changes in the sea level along the west coast of India. The upwelling and associated sea level variations are seen as a response of coastal ocean to pure wind stress forcing. The model is designed to represent coastal ocean physics by resolving surface and bottom Ekman layers as realistically as possible. The prognostic variables are the three components of the velocity field, temperature, salinity and turbulent energy. The governing equations together with their boundary conditions are solved by finite-difference techniques. Experiments are performed to investigate sea level fluctuations associated with the thermal response and alongshore currents of the coastal waters. The model is forced with mean monthly wind stress forcing of January, May, July and September representing northeast monsoon and different phases of the southwest monsoon. It is known from the observational study that the upwelling process reaches to the surface waters by May along the coastal waters of the extreme southwest peninsular region. The process is more intense in July compared to May and September and its strength decreases from south to north. However, during the northeast monsoon season, which is represented by January wind stress forcing in the model, downwelling is simulated along the coast. The model simulations of the coastal response are compared with the observations and are found to be in good agreement. The maximum computed vertical velocity of about 2.0 ×10 -3 cm s -1 is predicted in July in the southern region off the coast.     

Assessing the consistency between AVHRR and MODIS NDVI datasets for estimating terrestrial net primary productivity over India

This study examines the consistency between the AVHRR and MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets in estimating net primary productivity (NPP) and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) over India during 2001–2006 in a terrestrial ecosystem model. Harmonic analysis is employed to estimate seasonal components of the time series. The stationary components (representing long-term mean) of the respective NDVI time series are highly coherent and exhibit inherent natural vegetation characteristics with high values over the forest, moderate over the cropland, and small over the grassland. Both data exhibit strong semi-annual oscillations over the cropland dominated Indo-Gangetic plains while annual oscillations are strong over most parts of the country. MODIS has larger annual amplitude than that of the AVHRR. The similar variability exists on the estimates of NPP and NEP across India. In an annual scale, MODIS-based NPP budget is 1.78 PgC, which is 27% higher than the AVHRR- based estimate. It revealed that the Indian terrestrial ecosystem remained the sink of atmospheric CO ₂ during the study period with 42 TgC y ^?1 NEP budget associated with MODIS-based estimate against 18 TgC y ^?1 for the AVHRR-based estimate.     

The use and performance of mesoscale models over the Indian region for two high-impact events

High-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather- and climate-related disasters. Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for research and operational usage. This paper reviews the work done by different groups with respect to two specific events, (1) unprecedented locally heavy rainfall near Mumbai (Santa Cruz) on 26 and 27 July 2005 and (2) the Orissa super-cyclone of 29 and 30 October 1999 from its incipient stage on 24 and 25 October 1999. Considerable variability in the prediction of the intensity and location of mesoscale heavy rainfall, as well as in the intensity and path of the super-cyclone, are found. In order to reduce uncertainty in dynamical prediction, it is necessary that the model dynamics, physics, resolution, boundary conditions and availability of data on land–ocean surface processes are tuned separately to the specific event types, such as heavy monsoon rainfall, tropical cyclone genesis and movement and severe local thunderstorms, as the processes controlling such types of events may require suitable treatments for their proper simulations through appropriate dynamics, physics and resolution.     

Impact of various synthetic vortices on cyclone track prediction

Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely 6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period.     

Comparison of Methods for Determining Specific-surface Area of Fine-grained Soils

Characteristics of fine-grained soils primarily depend on their specific-surface area and hence, reliable determination of this parameter is essential. In this context, researchers have employed quite sophisticated instruments (viz., a BET surface area analyzer, the mercury intrusion porosimetry, internal reflectance spectroscopy, X-Ray diffraction and gas pycnometer etc.) and methodologies (viz., sorption of Methylene Blue dye, Ethylene Glycol Monoethyl Ether and p-Nitrophenol) to determine specific-surface area of these soils. However, most of these methodologies are found to be quite tedious, cost and time intensive. Apart from this, the results obtained are contentious due to the inherent limitations associated with either the instruments employed or the basic assumptions made for computing the specific-surface area of the soil. Hence, it becomes mandatory to evaluate the efficiency of these methodologies for determining specific-surface area of fine-grained soils. With this in view, different types of soils were considered in this study and their specific-surface area was determined, by following different methodologies, and the results were evaluated critically. In addition, attempts were made to develop relationships between the basic properties of fine-grained soils (viz., liquid limit, cation-exchange capacity, activity, and free swell index) and the specific-surface area. These relationships will be of immense help to the practicing engineers and research fraternity.     

Retrieval of soil moisture using SIR-C polarimetric data

Spaceborne Imaging Radar (SIR-C) polarimetric data acquired over Gujarat test site, India, during April and October 1994 were processed to retrieve soil moisture and surface roughness using multi-polarization techniques. Synchronous field data were collected and compared with the results obtained using SIR-C data. Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) images in visible region were used for locating groundtruth points. Multi-polarization inversion techniques are found to be sensitive to retrieval of soil moisture and surface roughness parameters. However, the accuracy is not adequate. There is a need to improve the existing inversion models to suit to the Indian agricultural fields.     

Hydrogeochemical modeling of organo-metallic colloids in the Nsimi experimental watershed,South Cameroon

This paper presents a hydrogeochemical modeling code HYDROS, which combines the multi-component transport model with equilibrium speciation module MINTEQA2. The processes of adsorption, aqueous speciation and mineral precipitation/dissolution are represented in the model. The numerical model uses a sequential iterative approach for solving the solute transport and the equilibrium geochemistry modules. Further the transport part is solved using an operator split approach wherein a finite volume method is used for solving the advective equations while a classical finite difference method is employed for solving the dispersive equations. The model performance is evaluated by comparing it with MINTOX for a literature problem. HYDROS is then applied to the case study of the transfer of transition metals with organic colloids in the swamp groundwater system of the experimental Nsimi watershed, representative of the humid tropical ecosystem of the South Cameroon Plateau. Field observations at the site swamp system suggest that the carbon is mainly transferred as organic colloids (i.e., dissolved organic carbon) produced by the slow biodegradation of the swamp organic matter. Using HYDROS, the behaviour of Al(III) and Fe(III) elements in the base flow system is simulated during inter rain events of a short rainy season (May–June 1996). The elemental time-series for Al, Fe, Cl, pH compare well with the simulation results. The colloids are found to have a strong impact on the mobilization and transfer of Al(III) and Fe(III), which are considered to have low mobility in weathering environment.