Greenhouse gas emission mitigation plan for the State of Israel: strategies,incentives and reporting

In the context of the negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its accompanying Kyoto Protocol, participating nations have recognized the need for formulating Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). These NAMAs allow countries to take into account their national circumstances and to construct measures to mitigate GHG emissions across economic sectors. Israel has declared to the UN that it would strive to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% in the year 2020 relative to a ‘business as usual' scenario. With its growing population and an expanding economy, the national GHG mitigation plan was developed to draw a course for steering the Israeli economy into a low-carbon future while accommodating continued economic growth. The article describes relevant policy measures, designed to aid in the implementation of the plan and compares them with measures being undertaken by different countries. Emphasis is placed on analysing the progress to date, opportunities and barriers to attaining the ultimate GHG emissions reduction goals. The objective of this article is to contribute to the knowledge base of effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction. We emphasize the integrated approach of planning and implementation that could be especially useful for developing countries or countries with economies in transition, as well as for developed countries. Yet, in the article we argue that NAMAs’ success hinges on structured tracking of progress according to emerging global consensus standards such as the GHG Protocol Mitigation Goals Standard.

Policy relevance:

The study is consistent with the NAMA concept, enabling a country to adopt a ‘climate action plan’ that contributes to its sustainable development, while enabled by technology and being fiscally sound.

The analysis shows that although NAMAs have been framed in terms of projects, policies, and goals, current methodologies allow only the calculation of emission reductions that can be attributed to distinct projects. Currently, no international guidance exists for quantifying emissions reduction from policy-based NAMAs, making it difficult to track and validate progress. This gap could be addressed by an assessment framework that we have tested, as part of a World Resources Institute pilot study for an emerging voluntary global standard.     

Standardization of baseline and additionality determination under the CDM

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project developers have long complained about the complexities of project-specific baseline setting and the vagaries of additionality determination. In response to this, the CDM Executive Board took bold steps towards the standardization of CDM methodologies, culminating in the approval of guidelines for the establishment of performance standards in November 2011. The guidelines specify a performance standard stringency level for both baseline and additionality of 80% for several priority sectors and 90% for all other sectors. However, an analysis of 14 large-scale CDM methodologies that use performance standard approaches challenges this top-down approach to the performance standard design. An appropriate performance standard stringency level strongly depends on sector and technology characteristics. A single stringency level for baseline and additionality determination is appropriate only for greenfield projects, but not for retrofit ones. Overly simple, highly aggregated performance standards are unlikely to ensure high environmental integrity, and difficult questions regarding stringency and updating frequency will eventually have to be addressed on a rather disaggregated level. A careful balance between data requirements and the practicability of performance standards is essential because the heavy data requirements of the existing performance standard methodologies have been the key barrier to their actual implementation.

Policy relevance

CDM regulators have been pushed by many stakeholders to standardize baseline setting and eliminate project-specific additionality determination. At first glance, performance standards seem to provide the perfect solution for both tasks. However, a one-size-fits-all political decision – e.g. the average of the top 20% performers as enshrined in the Marrakech Accords – is inappropriate. Substantial disaggregation of performance standards is required both technologically and geographically in order to limit over- and under-crediting and close loopholes for non-additional projects. As a lack of reliable and complete data has been and will be a key bottleneck for the development of performance standards, international support for data collection will be indispensable, but costly, and time-consuming. Empirically driven, techno-economic assessments of performance standard stringency levels must be the central task of the future work on standardized methodologies, and should not be sidelined by perceived needs of policy makers to take bold decisions under time pressures.     

Military Emissions, Armed Conflicts, Border Changes and the Kyoto Protocol

The impacts of military activities in peacetime, military action and territorial changes on greenhouse gas emission commitments of nations under the Kyoto Protocol are analysed. We propose rules and institutional responsibilities to deal with the repercussions of such changes on markets in emission permits and national commitments aiming at prevention of serious distortions.     

Applying size segregation to relate the surrounding aerosol pollution to its source

Size segregated sampling of aerosol particles at the coal-fired power station Šoštanj, Slovenia was performed by a newly developed system. In addition, simultaneous sampling of particles was performed at two locations, Velenje and Veliki vrh, chosen on the basis of long term monitoring of SO₂ in the influential area of power plant. The signature of the power plant (e.g. characteristic size distributions of some typical trace elements) was identified. For elements, like As, Mo, Cd and Ga, which are typical for coal combustion, the highest concentrations were observed in the size range between 1 and 4 μm. For Se and sometimes for Ga two modes were identified, first between 0.1 and 0.5 μm and second between 1 and 4 μm. Ratios between the average concentrations of selected elements in fine and coarse particles collected at Veliki vrh (the most influenced location) and Velenje (usually not influenced by the thermo power station) were significantly higher than 1 in the case of Mo and Se for coarse and fine size range, while for As the ratio was higher than 1 for the coarse fraction. Consequently, Mo, Se and As were found as the most important tracers for the emissions from the investigated source. On the basis of the ratios between the concentrations of elements measured in particles at low and high SO₂ concentrations at Veliki vrh, Cd was shown to be a typical tracer as well. Our results definitely showed that size segregated measurements of particles at the source and in the influenced area give more precise information on the influence of source to the surrounding region. It was found that patterns of size distributions for typical trace elements observed at the source are found also in the influenced area, i.e. Veliki vrh.     

Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

The impact of salt on the late Messinian to recent tectonostratigraphic evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone

Messinian evaporites of locally more than 3‐km thickness occupy the subduction zone between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount. Based on a dense grid of seismic reflection profiles, we report on compressional salt tectonics and its impact on the Late Miocene to Quaternary structural evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone. Results show that evaporites have experienced significant post‐Messinian shortening along the plate boundary. Shortening has initiated allochthonous salt advance between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount, representing an excellent example of salt which efficiently escapes subduction and accretion. Further east, between Eratosthenes Seamount and the Hecataeus Rise, evaporites were compressionally inflated without having advanced across post‐Messinian strata. Such differences in the magnitude of salt tectonic shortening may reflect a predominately north–south oriented post‐Messinian convergence direction, raising the possibility of a later coupling between the motion of Cyprus and Anatolia than previously thought. Along the area bordered by Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount a prominent step in the seafloor represents the northern boundary of a controversially debated semi‐circular depression. Coinciding with the southern edge of the salt sheet, this bathymetric feature is suggested to have formed as a consequence of compressional salt inflation and seamount‐directed salt advance. Topographic lows on top of highly deformed evaporites are locally filled by up to 700 m of late Messinian sediments. The uppermost 200 m of these sediments were drilled in the course of ODP Leg 160 and interpreted to represent Lago Mare‐type deposits (Robertson, Tectonophysics, 1998d, 298 , 63‐82). Lago Mare deposits are spatially restricted to the western part of the subduction zone, pinching out towards the east whereas presumably continuing into the Herodotus Basin further west. We suggest a sea level control on late Messinian Lago Mare sedimentation, facilitating sediment delivery into basinal areas whereas inhibiting Lago Mare deposition into the desiccated Levant Basin. Locally, early salt deformation is believed to have provided additional accommodation space for Lago Mare sedimentation, resulting in the presently observed minibasin‐like geometry.     

In situ LA-ICPMS Isotopic and Geochronological Studies on Carbonatites and Phoscorites from the Guli Massif,Maymecha-Kotuy,Polar Siberia

In this study we present a fresh isotopic data, as well as U–Pb ages from different REE-minerals in carbonatites and phoscorites of Guli massif using in situ LA-ICPMS technique. The analyses were conducted on apatites and perovskites from calcio-carbonatite and phoscorite units, as well as on pyrochlores and baddeleyites from the carbonatites. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios obtained from apatites and perovskites from the phoscorites are 0.70308–0.70314 and 0.70306–0.70313, respectively; and 0.70310–0.70325 and 0.70314–0.70327, for the pyrochlores and apatites from the carbonatites, respectively.Furthermore, the in situ laser ablation analyses of apatites and perovskites from the phoscorite yield εNd from 3.6 (±1) to 5.1 (±0.5) and from 3.8 (±0.5) to 4.9 (±0.5), respectively; εNd of apatites, perovskites and pyrochlores from carbonatite ranges from 3.2 (±0.7) to 4.9 (±0.9), 3.9 (±0.6) to 4.5 (±0.8) and 3.2 (±0.4) to 4.4 (±0.8), respectively. Laser ablation analyses of baddeleyites yielded an eHf(t)d of +8.5 (± 0.18); prior to this study Hf isotopic characteristic of Guli massif was not known. Our new in situ εNd, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and eHf data on minerals in the Guli carbonatites imply a depleted source with a long time integrated high Lu/Hf, Sm/Nd, Sr/Rb ratios.In situ U–Pb age determination was performed on perovskites from the carbonatites and phoscorites and also on pyrochlores and baddeleyites from carbonatites. The co-existing pyrochlores, perovskites and baddeleyites in carbonatites yielded ages of 252.3 ± 1.9, 252.5 ± 1.5 and 250.8 ± 1.4 Ma, respectively. The perovskites from the phoscorites yielded an age of 253.8 ± 1.9 Ma. The obtained age for Guli carbonatites and phoscorites lies within the range of ages previously reported for the Siberian Flood Basalts and suggest essentially synchronous emplacement with the Permian-Triassic boundary.