重庆"9.5"特大暴雨的诊断分析

利用NCAR/NCEP逐日资料（一日4次）和北京大学物理学院大气科学系研制的客观分析诊断系统对2005年重庆“9．5”特大暴雨的成因进行了天气动力学诊断分析。结果表明：向南运动的高层北风急流下沉与低空急流上升支组成的西南低涡是本次特大暴雨的主要影响天气系统，“桑达”台风移动缓慢可能是造成此次特大暴雨的间接原因；特大暴雨出现在中低层辐合、高层辐散的正涡度中心下方和负涡度中心西侧；湿位涡高值带对应着降雨带，高值中心与暴雨中心基本吻合，对暴雨预报有指示意义。     

台风对连续重力固体潮的影响分析

以2012年"泰利"和"苏拉"台风期间的福州台和漳州台秒采样的重力固体潮为研究对象,首先通过巴特沃斯高通滤波,提取出重力固体潮中高频的台风扰动;其次采用傅里叶变换分析福州台和漳州台重力的功率谱特征。分析结果表明:台风中心距台站越近、风速越大、气压越低,重力固体潮的扰动也越明显。"泰利"和"苏拉"台风引起的重力扰动主要频率范围为0.16～0.28 Hz,而福州台和漳州台无台风影响时的正常重力地脉动脉动频率为0.25～0.35 Hz。     

华南两次强台风暴雨过程的水汽与湿位涡对比分析

【目的】探讨不同季节但路径相似的台风暴雨的相关特征,为不同季节的台风暴雨落区预报提供参考依据。【方法】利用常规的探空和地面资料以及NCEP/NCAR1°×1°全球再分析资料,计算2个强台风的水汽通量散度和湿位涡场。对比分析水汽通量辐合、湿位涡正压项(MPV1)和斜压项(MPV2)的水平和垂直分布特征,以及与暴雨落区的对应关系。【结果】秋季的"彩虹"台风高层副热带高压加强,而中低层冷空气和东南气流的汇合使"彩虹"台风的东侧和北侧获得更有利的动力环境条件;而夏季的"威马逊"台风北侧无冷空气影响,台风南侧外围强盛的西南季风气流卷入。台风"威马逊"期间,强的水汽通量辐合中心始终在台风及其残涡中心的南侧和西侧;台风"彩虹"登陆后60 h内一直持续有2支强盛的气流向台风中心输送水汽,而水汽通量的辐合中心与"威马逊"相反,位于台风中心的北侧和东侧,东南气流的卷入以及维持时间长使暴雨增幅。台风"彩虹"登陆后高层高值MPV1扰动下传,低层MPV2> 0并增强,湿斜压性得以增强,有利于垂直涡度增长,使台风低压得以维持和发展;登陆后48～66 h 925 hPa层MPV1为负值,使对流不稳定能量及潜热能的释放,有利于暴雨的维持。而台风"威马逊"登陆后湿斜压性增强不明显。2个台风强降水中心大致位于925 hPa MPV1正负中心过渡带偏向负中心一侧;"威马逊"过程低层MPV1负值中心在正值中心的左侧,对应着西南季风的汇入区;而"彩虹"过程低层MPV1负值中心在正值中心的右侧,对应着冷空气和东南气流的汇合区。这是2个台风暴雨落区差异的成因之一。【结论】本研究得出的湿位涡诊断结果对台风暴雨落区预报具有较好的指示意义。     

台风“麦莎”移动过程中水汽输送特征

利用NCEP1°×1°的再分析资料,用大尺度水汽通量流函数和速度势以及水汽收支对台风“麦莎”在移动过程中水汽输送流函数和速度势进行了分析。结果表明：台风“麦沙”在北上过程中,主要有2支水汽通道,一支是从太平洋开始向西经赤道到达印度洋,在索马里转向,经过孟家加拉湾呈西南气流向西北方向输送;另一支来自副高南侧偏东气流。计算分析还表明,用无辐散风流场来定台风中心要比用总的流场更精确。     

台风“烟花”(2106)期间江苏南通地区降水稳定同位素组成变化特征及影响因素

2021年第6号(2106)台风“烟花”是我国有监测记录以来对大陆影响时间最长的台风,为华东地区带来了暴雨级的降水。基于台风“烟花”(2106)影响江苏南通地区期间小时尺度高分辨率的降水稳定同位素数据,分析了降水稳定同位素组成变化特征及影响因素。结果表明：降水δ¹⁸O值为-11.7‰～-2.3‰,加权平均值为-7.4‰。台风影响前期,采样点水汽主要来源于附近海域,受云下蒸发效应的影响,降水δ¹⁸O值相对偏正;台风影响中期,受相对湿度与上游累积对流强度的共同控制,降水δ¹⁸O值逐渐偏负。但相较于已发表的我国台风降水δ¹⁸O极端偏负值(-20.1‰～-12.6‰),台风“烟花”(2106)降水δ¹⁸O极值并未显著偏负,主要是由于上游累积对流降水历时较短以及台风登陆后水汽缺乏大规模有组织性的对流活动。     

台风"麦莎"的天气过程总结

利用全市21个自动气象站的逐时资料，分析了台风“麦莎”对苏州市的风雨影响，并将其与20世纪90年代以来对苏州造成严重影响的9015号和9711号两个台风，分别从登陆时强度、登陆后移动路径、影响苏州市的持续时间和形成的风雨实况等方面进行了对比分析。通过分析比较得出，台风“麦莎”是20世纪90年代以来对苏州影响最严重的一次台风过程。     

复杂地形对西南低涡生成和移动影响的数值试验分析

为探讨四川盆地周边复杂地形对西南低涡发生发展以及移动的影响,利用NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料和中尺度非静力平衡模式WRF V3.4.1,对2010年7月16日至18日发生在四川盆地的一次西南低涡暴雨过程进行了再现模拟(控制试验)以及降低盆地周边不同地形高度的3组敏感性试验。结果表明,控制试验模拟出的西南低涡位置和强度与实况基本吻合。秦岭、大巴山山脉对西南低涡的形成不具有决定性影响,但对西南低涡的维持和发展具有非常重要的作用;横断山脉、云贵高原对西南低涡的生成位置、强度以及移动路径均很重要;青藏高原大地形对偏东气流的阻挡而产生的绕流有利于西南低涡的生成,对西南低涡的移动也有重要影响。除西南低涡以外,四川盆地周边地形所产生的一些局地小低涡的现象也值得关注。     

预报小概率台风路径的一个外推公式

本文提出一个考虑到台风中心移动加速度的外推公式．在已知台风中心的现在位置、6小时前位置和12小时前位置的条件下，可根据该公式求得台风中心未来124、时及24小时的预报位置。验证结果表明．该公式对小概率台风路径有较好的预报效果。     

近海地形对热带气旋移动影响的数值试验

利用含地形、摩擦及非绝热加热外源强迫的准地转正压涡度方程模式 ,通过构造理想的坡地地形及椭圆型岛地形 ,首先分析了孤立地形的动力抬升作用及动力抬升、摩擦、非绝热加热 3者共同作用下对热带气旋 (TC)移动的影响。发现 :地形的动力抬升、摩擦作用以及地形附近海域的非绝热加热对TC移动均有影响 ;然后 ,引入了我国东南近海的实际地形 ,通过数值试验分析了TC移经或登陆在近海不同位置时TC移向、移速的可能变化 ,并给出了近海地形对TC移向、移速影响的空间分布。     

FY-2D云导风在“鲶鱼”台风模拟中的同化试验

为了能给国内的云导风产品在通道的选择和使用方法上提供一些新的参考,以2010年的“鲶鱼”台风为个例,通过对FY-2D云导风产品在WRF模式中的同化对比试验,分析比较了同化了云导风资料之后的台风路径和位势高度场、风场的变化。结果表明,同化之后台风路径的偏差水汽通道要远大于红外通道,随着积分时间的延长,红外通道数据的加入对模拟台风路径的订正作用比水汽通道显著;模式使用不同同化方案的模拟结果也有明显的差别,其中以每24小时一次冷启动的同化循环方案对台风路径有较准确的模拟,而在分析不同通道导风质量优劣方面,则以热循环同化方案最佳。     

Underwater topography detection of Taiwan Shoal with SAR images

Under suitable conditions of tidal current and wind, underwater topography can be detected by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) indirectly. Underwater topography SAR imaging includes three physical processes: radar ocean surface backscattering, the modulation of sea surface short wave spectrum by the variations in sea surface currents, and the modulation of sea surface currents by the underwater topography. The first process is described usually by Bragg scattering theory because the incident angle of SAR is always between 20°–70°. The second process is described by the action balance equation. The third process is described by an ocean hydrodynamic model. Based on the SAR imaging mechanism for underwater topography, an underwater topography SAR detection model and a simplified method for its calculation are introduced. In the detection model, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model — the shallow water model is used to describe the motion of tidal current. Due to the difficulty of determining the expression of SAR backscattering cross section in which some terms can not be determined, the backscattering cross section of SAR image used in the underwater topography SAR detection is pro-processed by the simulated SAR image of the coarse-grid water depth to simplify the calculation. Taiwan Shoal, located at the southwest outlet of Taiwan Strait, is selected as an evaluation area for this technique due to the occurrence of hundreds of sand waves. The underwater topography of Taiwan Shoal was detected by two scenes of ERS-2 SAR images which were acquired on 9 January 2000 and 6 June 2004. The detection results are compared with in situ measured water depths for three profiles. The average absolute and relative errors of the best detection result are 2.23 m and 7.5 %, respectively. These show that the detection model and the simplified method introduced in the paper is feasible.     

洋壳活动断层特征和动力作用

对洋壳活动断层特征进行分析,认识到洋壳活动断层内存在洋壳生长,内部存在对称、褶皱和火山构造.洋壳生长不仅会形成新洋壳,而且会释放热量,产生推挤力,并在洋壳地形上留下演化痕迹.断层内部洋壳生长会促进断层两侧洋壳发生相对运动,众多洋壳断层活动的综合影响造成洋壳块体的相对运动.洋中脊是洋壳生长的产物,转换断层区域是洋壳块体现...     

中国大陆东南边缘海现时地壳运动与地震动力学综合研究

在东亚大陆动力学和西太平洋动力学背景下 ,定量研究中国大陆东南边缘海的现今区域地壳运动、动力学及地震危险性。基于 1994～ 1998年福建 -台北网、中国大陆网、台湾 -吕宋 (菲律宾 )网和东亚大陆及西太平洋的 IGS网等 4种不同空间尺度的 GPS测量结果 ,结合近 10 0年来的强震震源机制解、近 2 0余年来跨断层形变网、精密水准网、激光测距网及原地应力测量等结果 ,以及地球物理数值模拟与地质学成果 ,通过对多层次构造运动的分析、多学科结果的互验互补和整体综合研究 ,获得如下结果 :( 1)本研究区同时存在陆、海相互对进的两种地壳水平运动 :大陆东南沿海 11～ 12 mm/ a向东南、海洋对大陆 3mm/ a向西北以及台湾东海岸 53mm/ a向西北的运动 ;( 2 )台湾岛可能存在着以 2 4°N附近为其旋转轴的右旋运动 ;( 3) GPS和地形变测量求出现今区域应力场主压应力方向为 NW( NWW)向 ,与不同时间尺度的地震学和地质学结果一致 ;( 4 )观测与数值模拟共同证实 ,印度板块和菲律宾海板块对欧亚板块的联合动力作用是导致本区上述地壳运动的原因 ;前者导致的地壳运动速度比后者约大 4倍 ,但前者仅导致准均匀场 ,而后者则可产生变形局部化过程的非均匀场 ,从而为强震孕育提供动力 ;( 5)菲律宾海板块在台湾东侧对欧亚板块     

沂蒙缺水地区碳酸盐岩地下水富水性研究

沂蒙缺水地区地处山东省中南部,大面积分布泰山群变质岩及各类侵入岩,赋水性极差,生活、生产用水非常困难。通过研究地层岩性、地质构造、地形地貌、补给条件和水动力条件,在地形、构造、岩性复合的有利部位发现蒙阴-桃墟、沂水-姚店子和马牧池等3处裂隙岩溶富水地段,水质良好,具备建设中、小型水源地的条件。认为地层岩性是控制地下水存在的基础、地质构造控制着地下水的运动和赋存条件、地形地貌是影响地下水补给及运动最主要的因素等地下水赋存规律;研究成果对解决区内用水困难具有重要意义。。     

福建地区地壳形变特征研究

利用福建地壳运动观测网络和IGS发布的台湾桃园国际基准站的GPS连续观测资料的联合解算结果，分析福建内陆的地壳形变特征，以及海峡两岸最近5年的相对运动状况。研究结果表明：福建内陆的运动状态为南强北弱，东强西弱；海峡两岸由过去的拉张变为挤压状态，并且北部与南部存在差异性运动。     

Characteristics of Wind Erosion and Deposition in Oasis-desert Ecotone in Southern Margin of Tarim Basin,China

The oasis-desert ecotone is a fragile ecological zone that is affected both by oasis and desert conditions. To understand the impact of the differences in wind power, and the influence of wind erosion and deposition on the ecotone, meteorological data and con- temporaneous wind erosion and deposition data were collected on the southern margin of Tarim Basin with serious sand-blown hazards. The wind velocity, average wind velocity, sand drift potential （DP）, resultant sand drift potential （RDP）, and sand transportation rate decrease significantly and successively across four landscape types with increasing vegetation coverage （VC）. Flat surfaces and areas of shifting sandy ground experience intense wind erosion with fast movement of mobile sand dunes; semi-fixed sand areas experience ex- tensive wind deposition but only slight wind erosion; and fixed sand areas experience only slight wind erosion and deposition. Volume of wind erosion on bare newly reclaimed farmland is up to 6.96 times that of bare shifting sandy ground. Wind erosion volume per unit area and VC follow an exponential function relationship in natural conditions, while wind deposition volume per unit area does not conform to any functions which has close relationship with vary topography and arrangement patterns of vegetation besides for VC. The results indicate that the volume of wind erosion has a close correlation with VC, and different types and distribution patterns of topog- raphy and vegetation also profoundly influence the wind deposition volume in the field, and underground water tables in different land- scape types control the plant community distribution. Keywords： wind erosion; wind deposition; oasis-desert ecotone; vegetation coverage （VC）; topography; Cele County     

Seasonal cycle of topography in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and its relationships with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment based on altimetry data

Seasonal cycle is the most significant signals of topography and circulation in the Bohai Sea (BS)and Yellow Sea (YS) forced by prevailing monsoon and is still poorly understood due to lack of data in their interiors. In the present study, seasonal cycles of topography in the BS and YS and its relationship with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment were examined and discussed using TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-I/2 Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) data. Analyses revealed complicated seasonal cycles of topography composed mainly of 2 REOF modes, the winter-summer mode (WlM) and spring-autumn mode (SAM). The WlM with action center in the BS displayed peak and southward pressure gradient in July, and valley and northward pressure gradient in January, which is obviously the direct response to monsoon with about l-month response time. The SAM with action center in the western south YS displayed peak and northward pressure gradient in October and valley and southward pressure gradient in April. After the mature period of monsoon, the action center in the BS becam eweakened while that in the western south YS became strengthened because of regional convergence or divergence induced by seasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current and Yellow Sea Coastal Current. The direct response of topography to monsoon resulted in the WIM, while oceanic adjustment of topography played an important role in the forming of the SAM.     

Relationships between landslide types and topographic attributes in a loess catchment, China

Topographic attributes have been identified as the most important factor in controlling the initiation and distribution of shallow landslides triggered by rainfall.As a result,these landslides influence the evolution of local surface topography.In this research,an area of 2.6 km 2 loess catchment in the Huachi County was selected as the study area locating in the Chinese Loess Plateau.The landslides inventory and landslide types were mapped using global position system(GPS) and field mapping.The landslide inventory shows that these shallow landslides involve different movement types including slide,creep and fall.Meanwhile,main topographic attributes were generated based on a high resolution digital terrain model(5 m × 5 m),including aspect,slope shape,elevation,slope angle and contributing area.These maps were overlaid with the spatial distributions of total landslides and each type of landslides in a geographic information system(GIS),respectively,to assess their spatial frequency distributions and relative failure potentials related to these selected topographic attributes.The spatial analysis results revealed that there is a close relation between the topographic attributes of the postlandsliding local surface and the types of landslide movement.Meanwhile,the types of landslide movement have some obvious differences in local topographic attributes,which can influence the relative failure potential of different types of landslides.These results have practical significance to mitigate natural hazard and understandgeomorphologic process in thick loess area.     

通量均衡意义下中国大陆现今地壳垂直运动及梯度分布与构造活动的关系

本文在应绍奋等研究成果的基础上,利用作者所提出的方法重新处理了覆盖中国大陆(不包括海南省、台湾省等岛屿)900余万平方公里的垂直形变资料,给出了在通量均衡基准下中国大陆现今地壳垂直运动及其梯度的空间分布以及几大地块的平均速率和通量。由此得出以下认识:(1)现今地壳垂直运动与大陆所处的力场有较好的对应性。(2)现今地壳垂直运动具有明显的南升北降大趋势;以西部最为典型和强烈。(3)现今地壳垂直运动高梯度值带与地震带的分布有较好的吻合性。(4)现今地壳垂直运动的分群性与大陆各大地块的划分有较好的匹配性。