气候变化对不同气候区流域年径流影响的识别

气候变化对流域径流的影响显著,但不同流域径流对各气候因子敏感性不同,具有明显的空间分异性。本文以位于半湿润、湿润地区的松花江、子牙河以及西苕溪流域为例,基于Budyko 水热平衡经验模型,采用归因分析方法分离了气象要素趋势性变化对年径流和潜在蒸发变化率的贡献与差异性。结果表明:1960-2008年,在上述3个流域中,降水趋势性变化对年径流变化的贡献比潜在蒸发大。松花江和子牙河流域各气象要素趋势性变化对潜在蒸发变化率的贡献排序为:温度>风速>水汽压>日照时数,而西苕溪流域为:温度>日照时数>风速>水汽压。在气候要素共同作用下,松花江和子牙河流域平均年径流分别以0.48和1.51 mm a^-2的速率减少,而西苕溪流域年径流则以1.42 mm a^-2的速率增加。所得结果加深了气候变化对径流影响机制和程度的认识,可作为流域水资源适应性管理的科学依据。     

气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征

黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。     

Vulnerability and adaptation of an oasis social–ecological system affected by glacier change in an arid region of northwestern China

The Hexi Inland River Basin in an arid region of northwestern China was chosen as the study area for this research. The authors define the vulnerability of an oasis social-ecological system to glacier change; select 16 indicators from natural and socioeconomic systems according to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and construct a vulnerability-assessment indicator system aimed at an inland river basin in the arid region of Northwestern China. Vulnerability of the oasis socialecological system affected by glacier change in the study area is evaluated by Spatial Principal Component Analysis(SPCA) under the circumstance of glacier change. The key factors affecting the vulnerability are analyzed. The vulnerability of the oasis social-ecological system in the Hexi Inland River Basin affected by glacier change is of more than medium grade, accounting for about 48.0% of the total number of counties in the study area. In terms of the spatial pattern of the vulnerability, the oasis economic belt is the most vulnerable. With the rapid development of the area's society and economy, the exposure of the system to glacial changes is significantly increased; and an increase in glacial meltwater is not enough to overcome the impact of increased exposure, which is the main reason for the high vulnerability. Based on the result of the vulnerability analysis and combined with the present industrial structure in the Hexi Inland River Basin, near-,medium-, and long-term adaptation initiatives are put forward in the article.     

石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知及其影响因素

农户对气候变化的感知是影响其选择有效适应策略的关键因素。基于农户调查数据,构建了农户对气候变化的感知度指数,分析了石羊河流域农户对气候变化的感知特征,并采用多元线性回归法分析了影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素。结果表明：（1）石羊河流域农户对气温的感知比较准确,但对降水的感知出现偏差,农户对干旱、沙尘暴的感知强度明显高于其他气象灾害;（2）农户对气候变化的严重性感知较强,大部分农户认为气候变化对其生计产生了严重影响;（3）农户感知到的气候变化适应功效及适应成本均较高,但感知到的自我效能较弱;（4）影响气候变化敏感性感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平、务农年限、气候变化信息获取渠道;影响气候变化严重性感知与适应成本感知的关键因素均为户主性别、受教育水平及与村民的交流频率;影响适应功效感知的关键因素为与村民的交流频率;影响自我效能感知的关键因素为户主受教育水平。     

Localization and characterization of populations vulnerable to climate change: Two case studies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Future climate change potentially can have a strong impact on the African continent. Of special concern are the effects on food security and the restricted adaptive capacity of Africa's poverty stricken population. Targeted policy interventions are, therefore, of vital importance. While there is a broad consensus on selection of climate and agricultural indicators, a coherent spatial representation of the populations' vulnerability is still subject to debate, basically because important drivers at household and institutional level are captured at the coarser (sub)-national level only. This paper aims to address this shortcoming by capitalizing on available spatially explicit information on households, food security institutions and natural resources to identify and characterize vulnerable groups in climate change prone areas of East and West Africa. First, we identify and localize groups with varying degrees of vulnerability, using food security and health indicators from georeferenced household surveys. Second, we characterize these vulnerable groups using statistical techniques that report on the frequency of occurrence of household characteristics, social bonding, remittances and agro-ecological endowments. Third we localize areas where climate change conditions affect production of major staple crops even after a maximum adaptation of crop rotations. Fourth, we characterize the vulnerable groups in the climate change affected areas and compare their profiles with the overall assessment to elucidate whether generic or climate change targeted policies are required. Since climate change will impact predominantly on agricultural production, our analysis focuses on the rural areas. For West Africa, we find that vulnerable groups in areas likely to be affected by climate change do not fundamentally differ from vulnerable groups in the study area in general. However, in East Africa there are remarkable differences between these groups which leads to the conclusion that in this part of Africa, poverty reducing strategies for climate change affected areas should differ from generic ones.     

气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域蓝水绿水影响研究

以渭河流域为研究对象,探讨了1980~2009年气候变化和人类活动对蓝绿水资源的影响。结果表明：① 研究时段内,在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量分别下降了23.56 mm/a、39.41 mm/a和17.98 mm/a,中北部的蓝水流和绿水储量呈现增加的趋势,流域上游地区的绿水流呈现下降趋势。② 归因分析表明,蓝水流、绿水流和绿水储量在气候变化驱动下分别下降了13.17 mm/a、44.99 mm/a和22.79 mm/a;土地利用/覆盖变化则导致蓝水流和绿水流分别减少0.42 mm/a和0.37 mm/a,绿水储量增加了0.79 mm/a;而农业灌溉使蓝水流减少了9.97 mm/a,绿水流和绿水储量分别增加了5.95 mm/a和4.02 mm/a。③ 气候变化导致研究区东南部绿水系数呈现增加趋势,而泾河流域绿水系数呈现减小趋势。同时,土地利用/覆盖变化使得东南部的一些子流域绿水系数呈减小的趋势,而在加入农业灌溉情景后,平原地区灌区绿水系数呈明显的上升趋势。     

岩溶地区人类活动的水文效应研究现状及展望

在全球气候变化背景下,加之岩溶生态系统的脆弱性及敏感性,地表水与地下水交换迅速,岩溶水动力系统对人类活动及其造成的生态环境变化反馈敏感。岩溶地区人类活动导致的植被退化、石漠化等环境问题已对岩溶地区的水文水循环过程造成了严重影响,水资源问题已成为岩溶地区发展的重要限制因素。本文在对岩溶生态系统及水文环境特性分析的基础上,从土地利用变化的水文效应,人类活动对降水—径流的影响、岩溶水资源的开发利用、岩溶地下水污染及水文模型在岩溶地区的应用等方面,概述了岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的相关研究现状与不足,总结了未来岩溶地区人类活动水文效应的5个研究趋势,并探讨了研究中的重点及难点问题。     

1954-2011年间珠江入海水沙通量变化的多尺度分析

基于高要（西江）、石角（北江）和博罗（东江）水文站1954-2011 年的连续径流量和输沙率资料,采用Mann-Kendall 非参数秩次检验和小波分析的方法,分析珠江流域的入海水沙通量变化特征。结果显示：（1）1954-2011 年珠江的入海径流量没有明显变化趋势,但输沙率呈明显下降趋势,其间不同阶段的变化趋势不同：1954-1983 年珠江水沙均处于增长阶段,该阶段气候变化和人类活动对输沙的贡献率分别是70%和30%;1984-1993 年珠江水沙通量呈先降后升（1989 年是转折点）波动阶段,主要与气候变化有关;1994-2011 年珠江的水沙通量均呈下降趋势;气候变化和人类活动对输沙率下降的贡献率分别是20%和80%。（2）龙滩水库蓄水后的2007-2011 年与2006 年以前相比,珠江年均入海径流量减少了14%,而年均入海输沙率是减幅达到70%。这一时期水库蓄水和水土保持对输沙率减少的贡献率达到90%以上;（3）珠江的水沙通量变化具有明显年代际周期和年际周期变化特征,且不同子流域的周期有所不同。例如西江的径流量主要存在24 年和13 年的年代际周期以及4~7 年的年际周期,而输沙率主要存在16 年左右和10 年左右的年代际周期和4~7 年的年际周期;北江径流量主要存在12 年左右年代际周期和2 年左右以及8 年左右的年际周期和和输沙率年代际周期主要13-16 年,而年际周期是4~7 年和2~3 年;东江的径流和输沙率主要存在12 年左右年代际周期和2 年左右以及6 年左右的年际周期。这些年代际和年际变化周期与珠江流域降雨量的变化周期有较好关联性。     

Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

气候变化下水资源适应性管理的多目标方法应用（英文）

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change.Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system,a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use,water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change.For this study in China,two key indicators are proposed,namely(1) the water resources vulnerability(V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity(S) and resilience(C) of climate change impact on water resources,and(2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment,marked by DD,that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development(EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality(LI).To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management,a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function,called as VDD=DD/V.This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy,called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls,i.e.,the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation,the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Huaihe River.It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function(VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable.Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls,which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability(V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment(DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030.     

Impacts of climate change and agricultural activities on water quality in the Lower Kaidu River Basin,China

In the context of climate change and over-exploitation of water resources, water shortage and water pollution in arid regions have become major constraints to local sustainable development. In this study, we established a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution in the irrigation area of the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, based on spatial and attribute data (2010–2014). Four climate change scenarios (2040–2044) and two agricultural management scenarios were input into the SWAT model to quantify the effects of climate change and agricultural management on solvents and solutes of pollutants in the study area. The simulation results show that compared to the reference period (2010–2014), with a decline in streamflow from the Kaidu River, the average annual irrigation water consumption is expected to decrease by 3.84x10⁸ m³ or 8.87% during the period of 2040–2044. Meanwhile, the average annual total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in agricultural drainage canals will also increase by 10.50% and 30.06%, respectively. Through the implementation of agricultural management measures, the TN and TP in farmland drainage can be reduced by 14.49% and 16.03%, respectively, reaching 661.56 t and 12.99 t, accordingly, and the increasing water efficiency can save irrigation water consumption by 4.41 x10⁸ m³ or 4.77%. The results indicate that although the water environment in the irrigation area in the lower reaches of the Kaidu River Basin is deteriorating, the situation can be improved by implementing appropriate agricultural production methods. The quantitative analysis results of NPS pollutants in the irrigation area under different scenarios provide a scientific basis for water environmental management in the Kaidu River Basin.

     

全新世以来西辽河流域聚落环境选择与人地关系

通过聚落环境选择重审全新世以来西辽河流域人地关系,并提出重点环境整治地区是本文的研究重点。通过对全新世以来西辽河流域三次农业垦殖过程的研究,提出流域内聚落环境选择存在首选地与次属地的区别,从高程与地貌两项因素来看,400~600m等高区的坡地属于首选地,这里不仅是历次农业垦殖期人口主要迁入地,也是人类活动持续期较长的地带;400~600m等高区以外的区域多属次属地,二次移民是次属地农业垦殖的开端,这样的人口迁移现象在清代光绪年间后最为突出。西辽河流域的农业垦殖是以草地转为农田为主的环境变化过程,由于首选地与次属地之间的环境差异,次属地的农业开垦对环境带来的扰动更大,这里不仅成为环境问题的焦点,也是需要进行环境整治的重点地区。     

浅析江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的科学问题

长江、黄河源区位于青藏高原腹地,是我国气候变化的敏感区和脆弱区,面对全球气候变化以及我国冰冻圈萎缩的压力,明晰基于冰冻圈变化条件下江河源区生态系统脆弱性的科学问题,是长江、黄河流域生态安全保障及社会经济持续发展的客观要求。在分析江河源区范围、江河源区和我国冰冻圈的关系、目前生态系统脆弱性研究的基本特点的基础上,在全球气候变化和冰冻圈变化的复杂背景下,提出并阐述了江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的5个重要科学问题：（1）脆弱性概念的延伸和拓展;（2）气候系统的非线性作用;（3）脆弱性评价的时空尺度;（4）脆弱性评价的临界阈值;（5）脆弱性评价的界面链接等。     

潮河流域降水-径流关系变化及驱动因子识别

基于1973-2010年长系列日降水、径流数据,利用降水径流双累积曲线、M-K统计检验和降水集中度等方法,结合HIMS模型模拟结果,分析了潮河流域降水-径流关系的变化及其原因。得到的主要结论如下：（1）近38年来,潮河流域降水变化较小,但径流下降趋势显著,降水-径流关系发生了两次突变,即在1973-1983年、1984-1998年和1999-2010年三个阶段降水-径流关系存在明显差异;（2）大雨日降水总和（P_≥20）与径流深关系较为密切,其变化是导致降水-径流关系在1983年发生突变的主要驱动因子;（3）HIMS模型模拟结果显示,1999-2010年潮河流域下垫面条件较前两阶段变化明显,人类活动引起的减水效应由第二阶段的14.93%增加至第三阶段的25.78%,人类活动是导致降水-径流关系在1998年发生突变的主要驱动因子。     

基于SEBAL模型的疏勒河流域蒸散发估算与灌溉效率评价

我国西北干旱区内陆河流域水资源匮乏,水资源利用主要用于农业生产,准确估算内陆河流域蒸散发与农业灌溉效率,对研究内陆河流域气候变化和水资源合理利用具有重要作用。利用基于地表能量平衡方程的SEBAL模型,对2017—2018年疏勒河流域蒸散量进行定量估算与时空分布特征分析,并结合降水量与净灌溉水量数据,对疏勒河流域昌马灌区的年内灌溉水有效利用系数进行估算。结果表明：（1） 疏勒河流域2017—2018年日均ET呈单峰变化趋势,最大值为6月的5. 03 mm·d^–1,最小值为12月的0. 55 mm·d^–1,并存在明显的空间分布差异。（2） 疏勒河流域四季ET差异显著,夏季ET达到最高的201. 83 mm,春秋次之,冬季最低为53. 92 mm;ET由东南向西北逐渐减小,流域上游ET明显高于中下游地区。（3） 昌马灌区各灌溉时段不同的灌溉水量造成了各灌季蒸散量的差异,灌区ET高值区主要分布在中部与东南部,低值区主要分布在西北部和灌区边缘。（4） 昌马灌区年内灌溉水有效利用系数呈下降趋势,其中春灌、夏灌、秋灌和冬灌分别为0. 76、0. 71、0. 69和0. 55,年均灌溉水有效利用系数为0. 67。     

气候变化对石羊河流域农户生计资本的影响

气候变化是全球变化的核心问题,其影响已经深入到人类生活的各个领域,引起了国际社会的广泛关注。明确气候变化对农户生计的影响以及农户适应气候变化的策略及其需求,是区域可持续发展中急需解决的关键问题。本文基于石羊河流域1963-2012年气候变化和493个农户的入户调查数据,分析了气候变化对石羊河流域不同福利水平农户生计资本的影响及农户适应气候变化的策略和需求。结果表明:(1)流域上游气候呈显著的暖湿化趋势,中游和下游气候暖湿化趋势不显著。(2)气候变化对中游和下游农户生计资本的影响均大于上游农户,其中,对中等福利群体的生计资本影响最显著,对高福利群体的影响次之,对低福利群体的影响最小。农户自然资本受气候变化的影响最强,物质资本和社会资本受气候变化的影响最弱。(3)流域内农户均倾向选择减少消费和外出务工来适应气候变化,其中,选择减少消费的农户比重最高,选择外出务工和向亲属或政府求助的比重次之。高福利群体中选择减少消费和外出务工策略的比重较高,中等福利群体中选择求助亲属或政府策略的比重较高。(4)流域内农户对信息和资金的需求均较显著,其中,对信息的需求最强烈,对资金、技术和劳动力素质的需求次之。高福利群体和低福利群体在就业信息方面的需求最强烈,中等福利群体在农牧业市场信息方面的需求最强烈。     

西辽河流域历史早期的文化景观格局

考古发现表明 ,西辽河流域自历史早期以来 ,先后演绎了多期文化 ,文明一直延续至今。本文根据大量的野外考古调查资料 ,在典型考古遗址、教来河流域、敖汉旗三个空间尺度上建立了本区历史早期文化景观的DEM模型 ,分析了赤峰全境历史早期文化遗址点的水平分布格局 ,从四个不同的空间尺度探讨了西辽河流域历史早期文化景观的演变过程 ,概括出本区历史时期文化景观垂向变迁和水平变迁两种模式 ,为进一步深入研究本区人地系统的相互作用机制提供了基础。     

气候变化对淮河流域水资源及极端洪水事件的影响

利用法国国家气象研究中心气候模型（Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model, CNRM）典型代表性浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP）情景资料和可变下渗容量模型（Variable Infiltration Capacity Model,VIC）,分析了淮河流域未来气温、降水、水资源及可能洪水的变化趋势。结果表明,淮河流域未来气温将持续升高,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来2021~2050年较基准期（1961~1990年）升幅分别约为1.13℃、1.10℃和1.35℃;流域降水可能呈现略微增加趋势,3种排放情景下2021~2050年降水较基准期将分别增加5.81%、8.26%和6.94%;VIC模型在淮河流域具有较好的适用性,能较好地模拟淮河流域的水文过程,在率定期和检验期,模型对王家坝站和蚌埠站模拟的水量相对误差都在5%以内,日径流过程的Nash-Sutcliffe模型效率系数（NSE）在0.70以上,月径流过程的NSE达到0.85以上。气候变化将导致淮河流域水文循环强度增加,流域水资源总体将可能呈增加趋势,王家坝站和蚌埠站断面洪水事件的发生可能性将增大。     

Land desertification and restoration in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc...     

全球气候变化对黄河流域天然径流量影响的情景分析

本文从干旱指数蒸发率函数出发,以HadCM3 GCM对降水和温度的模拟结果为基础,在IPCC不同发展情景下,分析了未来近100年内黄河流域天然径流量的变化趋势。研究结果表明,在不同气候变化情景下,多年平均年径流量的变化随着区域的不同而有显著差异,其变化幅度在-48.0%²03.0%之间。全球气候变化引起的多年平均天然径流量的变化从东向西逐渐减小。就黄河流域而言,2006²035年、2036²065年、2066²095年A2情景下（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）多年平均天然径流量的变化量分别为5.0%、11.7%、8.1%,B2情景下（强调社会技术创新）相应的变化分别为7.2%、-3.1%、2.6%。