TIMBER HARVESTING AND THE HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE OF REDWOOD CREEK,CALIFORNIA

Timber removal on publicand private land surrounding Redwood National Park exacerbates naturally high rates of erosion that are common to this region and alters hydrologic processes within the park boundaries. These alterations of the natural environment complicate the efforts of the National Park Service to preserve a remnant of the once extensive coastal redwood ecosystem in the park. A watershed model for Redwood Creek calibrated to pre-logging conditions is employed to define and quantify changes in the hydrologic response of the basin during the years when timber harvesting reduced significantly the acreage of redwoods. Analysis of modeled and observed runoff indicates that timber removal is related to increased runoff during wet months and wet years, but runoff is reduced during dry months and dry years. These alterations in the hydrologic system occur at the least beneficial time because they augment high flows, whereas low flows are depleted. Such changes in runoff contribute to magnified erosion and deposition problems and increased stress for the flora and fauna that reside in and along Redwood Creek. [Key words: Redwood National Park, hydrology, watershed model, timber harvesting.]     

挠力河流域河流径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析

流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。     

SWAT模型的原理、结构及应用研究

SWAT(SoilandWaterAssessmentTool)是一个具有很强物理机制的长时段的流域分布式水文模型。它能够利用GIS和RS提供的空间数据信息,模拟复杂大流域中多种不同的水文物理过程,包括水、沙、化学物质和杀虫剂的输移与转化过程。本文着重探讨SWAT模型的水文学原理和模型的基本结构与独特的分布式运行控制方式,并将其成功应用于西北寒区(黑河莺落峡以上流域)的分布式日径流过程的模拟。     

黄土区人类活动影响下的 产汇流模拟研究

日益频繁的人类活动改变了流域下垫面条件,对流域产汇流产生很大的影响。本文以黄河中游典型支流岔巴沟为研究区域,提出利用基于DEM的分布式水文模拟技术,探讨流域人类活动过程中的产汇流模拟,避免了经验公式的概化和由此引起的局限。模拟的结果证实了该方法的可行性。采用网格滞蓄的方法可以在子网格上体现人类活动引起的下垫面的变化及其对产汇流的影响,反映各个时期的产汇流条件,对降雨做出合理响应。     

Characterizing streamflow response of a mountaintop-mined watershed to changing land use

Mountaintop removal mining is a dominant driver of land use/land cover changes in the Appalachian Region of the eastern United States and is expected to increase in scale in the coming decades. While several studies quantify land use/land cover changes attributed to traditional surface mining and at regional scales, no studies we are aware of focus specifically on mountaintop removal/valley fill mining practices at the watershed scale. Further, despite its scale and extent, its impact on runoff, particularly at larger spatial scales (10³ km²), is poorly understood due to the complex relationships between climate, land use, and hydrology. To explore the impacts of this practice at broader scales, we estimated land use/land cover changes using Landsat 5 TM imagery over five periods between 1994 and 2010; used a simple rainfall–runoff model to estimate hydrologic response time; and conducted non-parametric trend analyses on annual hydrologic metrics (streamflow, Q/P, response time) for the Big Coal River watershed located in the southern West Virginia coalfields. No statistically significant trends were detected in any of the timeseries. The lack of detectable trends and correlations between land use changes and hydrology at the basin scale are not entirely unexpected due to the history and mosaic of land cover changes that span timescales larger than our study period. Further interannual variation likely overwhelms our ability to detect potential changes using monotonic trend analysis at the annual time scale, particularly in light of strong streamflow seasonality. Future studies therefore should include different methods of change detection applied to different timescales to more appropriately account seasonal and interannual variations. Until the significance of this practice on water resources (quality and quality) are understood, efforts to reduce the environmental problems associated with mountaintop mining will be difficult to achieve.     

A total water management analysis of the Las Vegas Wash watershed,Nevada

Climate change, land-use change, and population growth are fundamental factors affecting future hydrologic conditions in streams, especially in arid regions with scarce water resources. Located in the arid southwest within the Las Vegas Wash watershed, Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas of the country. In the past 30?years, because of climate and land-use changes, it has experienced a decrease in clean water supply but an increase in water demand. To alleviate some of these problems, large amounts of water have been pumped into the city from different sources, such as Lake Mead, and the urban wastewater is treated and returned back to the reservoir for water augmentation. However, in the face of continual global climate change and urbanization in the watershed, long-term planning for sustainable water management is critical. This research was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis incorporating hydrologic modeling, population projection, land-use change modeling, and water management policies to examine the total water balance and management options in this arid and rapidly urbanizing watershed under various scenarios of climate regime, population growth, land-use change, and total water management programs for the year 2050.     

流域水文模型研究的若干进展

计算机技术和一些交叉学科的发展 ,给水文模拟的研究方法带来了根本性的变化。文章阐述了分布式物理水文模型、地理信息系统 (GIS)和遥感 (RS)技术在流域模拟中的应用等方面的进展。指出分布式模型具有良好的发展前景 ,应用 GIS的水文模型尽管有诸多优点 ,但并不能代表模型本身的高质量 ,遥感资料还没有完全融入水文模型的结构中 ,给直接应用带来较大的困难。     

水文要素与高程的关系

本文阐明水文要素的垂直变化按不同的尺度范围而各有其规律,并指出这些规律的应用。     

基于SWAT的典型沼泽性河流径流演变的气候变化响应研究——以三江平原挠力河为例

SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）是流域尺度的分布式水文模型,具有评价气候变化对径流影响的优势。利用SWAT模拟了三江平原典型沼泽性河流——挠力河流域3个水文站（上游的宝清站、保安站和中游的菜嘴子站）1974～1992年年径流量演变特征及变化趋势。在对模型参数敏感性分析的基础上,对模型的参数进行了率定和验证,率定期为1975～1982年,验证期为1983～1992年。率定期的模型效率指数ENS都大于0．85,皮尔逊相关系数都大于0．9,相对误差都小于10％;验证期,模型效率指数ENS有所减小,但也都大于0．61,模型对年径流的模拟结果令人满意。将率定的SWAT应用于气候变化的水文响应研究,结果发现,1995～2004年相对1975—1985年的年径流量变化只有部分是由气候因素引起的,气候因素对3个水文站（宝清站、保安站和菜嘴子站）的年径流量变化的影响率分别为25．7％、11．4％、39．9％,说明还有其他因素影响研究区的年径流量。     

Estimation of Direct Runoff in the Thornthwaite Water Balance*

Inclusion of direct runoff in water balance analysis makes the analysis more accurate and allows it to reflect important hydrologic effects of land use change such as urbanization. Water balance analysis is conveniently performed on a monthly basis. This paper reports the development of a model of monthly direct runoff consistent with the monthly bookkeeping format. The model was evaluated by comparison with direct runoff estimated by daily calculation using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method. The comparison employed six stations representing different climatic regions of the contiguous United States and eight values of SCS curve number. The results are statistically significant and produce little error.     

分布式流域水文模型水量过程模拟——以黄河河源区为例

文章分析了分布式水文模型、遥感和地理信息系统技术在流域径流模拟过程中的结合点,采用数字网格技术,以流域水量变化对地表土地覆被和气候变化响应过程为目的,讨论利用分布式水文模型研究下垫面和气候变化下流域水量响应过程的一般方法,并以黄河河源区为实例进行验证。     

A Simplified Basin Model For Simulating Runoff: The Struma River GIS

A GIS‐based distributed‐parameter runoff simulation model for the Struma River Basin in southwestern Bulgaria calculates the monthly snow/rain proportion, direct or surface runoff, snow cover and snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff. Simulation during the Bulgarian hydrologic year from November to October was compared with observed runoff data. The model closely replicates mean monthly runoff from climate conditions during the years 1961 –1990 as well as specific years. The simplified GIS model simulates hydrologic processes under limited data availability.     

三工河流域分布式水文模型研究

分布式水文模型及其尺度问题是当今水文学研究的前沿课题，特别是针对不同流域尺度以及适合于干旱地区的分布式模型更是研究的焦点。提出了位于干旱区巾小流域尺度的三工河流域分布式模型建立的方法．采用了半分布式网格与子流域结合的模拟计算方式．实例证明这种模型非常适合于模拟干早区融雪径流．对干旱区流域产汇流过程的研究将具有很大的推动作用。     

沱江流域水文对全球气候变化的响应

本文研究了全球气候变化对沱江流域水文的影响。根据流域水量平衡模型和未来气候情景对水量平衡各分量的可能变化进行了计算。结果表明;径流对气温变化不敏感,但对降水变化十分敏感;降水变化±１０％将引起径流量±３５％左右的变化;此外,径流年内分配亦发生了明显的变化。这将对沱江流域未来水资源计划与管理带来一定程度的影响。     

北方半干旱快速城镇化流域径流变化的驱动因素分析

通过社会经济发展对于流域水文过程产生的影响,分析城镇化流域的径流变化对于水资源管理保护和促进社会经济发展具有重要的作用。利用乌兰木伦河流域1997-2015年的水文气象、土地利用和社会经济等数据,以降水-径流双累积曲线、改进的Mann-Kendall检验和主成分分析等方法从不同时间尺度分析了流域径流、城镇化、气候和社会经济的变化趋势,揭示了气候、社会经济快速发展和城镇化过程对于流域径流的影响,发现了研究区年、季尺度下径流变化的主要驱动因素,并建立与不同时间尺度径流的映射函数关系。结果表明：在鄂尔多斯市快速城镇化影响下,研究区径流深呈现下降趋势,在2005年出现拐点变化; 2005年之后的平均径流深小于之前的平均径流深;降水、蒸发、气温等气候因素没有显著变化趋势,但城镇化面积、GDP和人口明显增加,城镇化为2005年后研究区径流减少的主要驱动因素;城镇化对于枯水季径流的影响更为显著。     

Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources

Our world is changing at an unprecedented rate in terms of climate and land use, but these changes can affect our water resources. Hence, we need a methodology that can predict both their individual and agglomerative ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating mathematical modeling and geographical information sciences to quantitatively examine the relative importance of the separate and combined hydrologic and water quality impacts of climate and land use changes.The Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model was chosen in this study to simulate stream flow and nutrient transport process. Five hypothetical climate change scenarios were used to cover the possible ranges of variability in the year 2050. An enhanced population-coupled Markov-Cellular Automata (CA-Markov) land use model was developed to predict the 2050 land use pattern. When these scenarios were incorporated into the HSPF model, the future conditions in the LMR basin were postulated. The findings demonstrated that: 1) the LMR watershed would experience an increase in flow and nutrients under the 2050 land use projection, 2) stream flow and water quality impacts would be amplified when both climate and land use changes were simultaneously considered, 3) land use change (and in the case of the LMR watershed, urbanization) could help to alleviate water shortage during the dry years, 4) total phosphorus and nitrogen would increase under all future climate and land use scenarios; the highest increase was found under the combined wettest and future land use scenarios, and 5) the described approach is effective in simulating the hydrologic and water quality effects of climate and land use changes in a basin scale. These results are relevant to planners; they can be useful in formulating realistic watershed management policies and mitigation measures.     

A Simplified Basin Model For Simulating Runoff: The Struma River GIS

A GIS-based distributed-parameter runoff simulation model for the Struma River Basin in southwestern Bulgaria calculates the monthly snow/rain proportion, direct or surface runoff, snow cover and snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff. Simulation during the Bulgarian hydrologic year from November to October was compared with observed runoff data. The model closely replicates mean monthly runoff from climate conditions during the years 1961 –1990 as well as specific years. The simplified GIS model simulates hydrologic processes under limited data availability.     

岷江上游森林水文效应研究

本文提出了用一般性流域水文模型研究森林水文效应的途径。得出在岷江上游地区随着覆盖率的下降年径流量减少、径流成份改变、年风分配更趋不均匀和洪峰流量增大的结论。在此基础上，预测了岷江上游地区水源涵养林建设的水文效益与前景。     

STORMWATER MANAGEMENT IN A SMALL MICHIGAN WATERSHED

This study examines stormwater flooding problems on Arcadia Creek, a typical small watershed in Michigan, which is undergoing urbanization. Land-use change has increased the impervious area and, hence, surface runoff while decreasing the natural storage capacity along the channel by elimination of marshes and swamps. However, creation of flow constrictions at culverts, construction of retention ponds, and other results of human interference have led to hydrologic segmentation of the basin and less downstream discharge but a more peaked hydrograph than expected. Continued haphazard urbanization of the basin could increase runoff and decrease storage to a point where downstream flooding would become a far more serious problem. A cooperative approach is needed among the three governments who have jurisdiction over the basin to preserve upstream storage capacity through both structural and policy measures. This would not only greatly facilitate flood control but obviate the need for expensive channel reconstruction to increase conveyance capacity.     

A review of runoff generation and soil erosion across scales in semiarid south-eastern Spain

Climate, lithology, soil and especially, intense land use/cover changes, make SE Spain very vulnerable to runoff generation and water erosion leading to loss of nutrients and organic matter and to infrequent but devastating floods, reservoir siltation and mass failures. This susceptibility has led to heavy economic investment and research efforts since the 1980s, making this region a worldwide reference for understanding the hydrology and geomorphology of semiarid ecosystems. Runoff and soil erosion have been intensively studied throughout the last decades in various natural ecosystems as well as in abandoned farmlands. Research has considered a wide range of methods and spatial and temporal scales. This paper reviews the methods and data describing runoff generation and water erosion, synthesising the key processes involved, rates, thresholds and controlling factors from a scale-dependent perspective. It also identifies the major gaps in current knowledge to provide recommendations for further research towards solutions that reduce the negative impacts of erosion. Research in SE Spain has contributed significantly to a better understanding of the effect of spatial and temporal scale on runoff and sediment yield measurements, and highlighted the important role of distinct erosion and sediment transport processes, hydrologic connectivity, spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme events and the impacts of land use changes. The most effective ways and challenges to predict runoff, soil erosion and sediment yield at the catchment scale are also discussed.