基于主成分分析的东江流域水资源承载能力评价

本文分别介绍了主成分分析法的原理和算法,并将其运用到东江流域水资源承载能力评价中,并且与模糊综合评价结果进行比较。结果表明：两评价方法的评价结果都是东江流域水资源承载能力呈现中上游高下游低的分布趋势,对此提出水资源可持续利用的对策,以促进流域水资源与社会经济的协调发展。     

半干旱地区水资源承载能力研究——以松嫩平原西南部霍林河流域为例

水资源的合理开发利用与否是影响社会经济发展的瓶颈。以霍林河流域为研究对象,对该流域特征及其生态环境问题进行了分析,构建了水资源承载力研究的指标体系,该体系包括水资源形成的自然条件、开发利用及社会经济因素3个方面9项指标。应用因子分析法对流域内各县市水资源承载能力进行定量评价,结果表明,霍林河流域从上游到下游,水资源承载能力主要受水资源形成条件和开发利用强度的影响,水资源承载能力评价是水资源可持续利用的关键。     

流域水资源承载能力综合评价的多目标决策-理想区间模型

水资源承载能力评价，是一个由多目标组成的复杂巨系统，其难点是如何合理地建立评价该系统的数学模型。由于评价标准是区间概念而非点的概念，因而传统的多目标决策一理想点法把评价标准处理成理想点存在一定缺陷。为了克服这种缺陷，对多目标决策理想点法进行了改进，提出了一种新的评价模型——多目标决策一理想区间模型(MODMIIM)，介绍了MODMIIM的原理，给出了其构成方法，并用MODMIIM对淮河流域的水资源承载能力进行了综合评价，结论为淮河流域的水资源承载能力总体上较弱。MODMIIM可操作性强，计算结果稳定、合理。与多目标决策一理想点法相比，MODMIIM具有更大的适用性。MODMIIM可广泛应用于各种水资源综合评价问题中。     

鞍山市水资源承载能力评价及调控措施分析

水资源承载能力评价是摸清流域及区域水资源承载状况,建立合理调控措施的重要依据。以辽宁鞍山市2011-2015年水资源开发利用数据为基础,对鞍山市的水资源承载能力进行核算,并对所辖各县区承载能力状况与程度进行评价,经过综合分析评价可知,鞍山地区除台安县水资源承载为临界状态外,其它县区均为不超载。根据评价结果,有针对性的提出水资源调控的工程及非工程调控措施。研究结果对促进区域水资源与人口经济均衡协调发展具有重要意义。     

海河流域洪水资源利用评价研究

为给流域洪水资源利用合理性评价提供基本的阈值标准,有效协调洪水资源利用与河流生态环境保护和流域防洪安全的关系,建立了流域洪水资源利用评价的基本框架.指出洪水资源利用评价应解决洪水资源量计算、洪水资源利用水平分析、洪水资源可利用量评价和洪水资源利用潜力评估四个基本问题.在对洪水资源利用量、洪水资源可利用量、洪水资源利用潜力等基本概念进行系统阐述的基础上,建立了流域洪水资源利用的评价方法.根据所建立的基本概念和评估方法,对1980～2006年海河流域及4个二级区的洪水资源利用状况及合理性进行了全面评价.结果表明,1980～2006年海河流域平均年洪水资源可利用量和利用潜力分别为62.8亿m~3和5.35亿m~3.海河流域洪水资源利用总体而言处于比较不合理的状态,洪水资源利用量频繁超过洪水资源可利用量,洪水资源利用潜力不大.多数年份洪水资源利用量超过了河道内必要需水量允许的限度,少数丰水年份超过了流域洪水资源调控利用能力的范围.今后,海河流域洪水资源利用合理性的提高,需要逐步调整目前洪水资源利用主要集中于山区的空间格局,提高平原区洪水资源调控利用能力,有效保障洪水期河道内必要需水量.     

邯郸市水资源承载力评价及预测研究

在充分理解水资源承载能力概念,深入分析其影响因素的基础上,根据指标体系筛选原则,设计出多层次的适合邯郸市水资源承载能力评价的指标体系,并采用多层次模糊综合评判模型对邯郸市2005年、2015年和2025年的水资源承载力进行了评价和分析。     

基于模糊识别的水资源承载能力综合评价

应用模糊识别模型解决水资源承载能力综合评价问题,根据水资源承载能力相关因子自身的数据结构特性,通过模糊识别模型得到样本的级别特征值,从而达到对待评价区域的识别、归类,同时可以得到各相关因子在评价过程中的贡献率,实例部分将模型应用于全国30个省市、自治区的水资源承载能力评价,结果表明该方法的实用性和客观性。     

细河流域水资源现状研究与发展的若干建议

为了准确地判断和评价细河流域的水资源承载能力,本文对细河流域的水资源现状进行了调查和分析,得到了以下结论:细河流域地下水源水质类别为Ⅳ类,主要超标项目为硝酸盐氮。细河流域水资源开发程度较不均衡,地表水利用程度较低、部分地区地下水开采程度较高。着重从节约用水、水资源管理等方面提出一些具体的对策和建议,可为今后一定时期内细河流域水资源开发利用和管理提供重要参考依据。     

影响水资源承载能力增强因子的结构分析

本文依据天然一人工二元水循环理论,阐述了东江流域水资源承载能力增强的途径和主要影响因子,在此基础上,利用解释结构模型分析了该承载系统各影响因子的层次结构及其相互作用关系.研究结果表明:激励机制、用水效率在诸影响因子中起到核心作用,是影响东江流域水资源承载能力增强的主影响因子:提高社会水资源承载能力是东江流域水资源承栽能力增强的主要途径.     

开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平的综合评价与分析

以新疆开都河-孔雀河流域为例, 利用熵值法分析原理建立了流域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系, 对其进行了量化分析以及指标客观赋权, 并得出研究区水资源承载力水平综合得分值. 结果表明: 开都河-孔雀河流域各县市的水资源承载力综合水平较低, 且出现了下降趋势, 而且空间差异显著. 影响开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平变化的动力因子是开都河-孔雀河流域的产业结构和用水结构的双重不合理, 并对水资源承载力产生较强的制动效应, 用水效益的缓慢提升和水利设施建设投资的减少, 也影响着流域水资源承载力水平的进一步提升.为了开都河-孔雀河流域水资源承载力水平提升和流域可持续管理, 建议加强水源地和生态保护区建设, 发展节水农业和高效用水灌溉技术, 优化流域内产业结构和用水结构, 提高用水效益, 完善流域管理法规、 法律条例, 加大监督和执法力度, 建设统一管理模式, 建立科学而严格的管理机制.     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

Global repeating events in the history of the Earth and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy

Chronological analyses of correlations between certain global repeating events (mass extinctions of marine organisms, meteorite impacts, and flashes in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals) during the Phanerozoic Eon and the motion of the solar system in the Galaxy are presented for five rotationally symmetrical models for the regular Galactic gravitational field. Thirteen of sixteen mass-extinction events can be described by a repetition interval of 183±3 million years. This is in agreement with the anomalistic period (interval between two subsequent passages of the Sun through the apocenter of its Galactic orbit) in the model of Allen and Martos. The positions of the minima and maxima in Gaussian functions approximating the frequency distribution for geomagnetic reversals also agree with the times of passage of the Sun through the apocenter and pericenter, respectively, of its Galactic orbit in this model. The maximum in the distribution of the deviations of the dates of mass extinctions from the nearest dates of impacts of large, crater-forming bodies is close to zero, providing evidence that many such events are correlated. As a rule, extinctions follow impact events. The impacts of large bodies have occurred most often when the solar system passes through the Galactic plane, while mass extinctions occur more often at some distance from the Galactic plane (about 40 pc). As a rule, intervals of increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals coincide with dates of impacts of large bodies. At the same time, these intervals do not show a clear correlation with the dates of mass extinctions. The intensity of mass extinctions, like the energy released by impacts, is consistently higher in periods when the Sun is moving from the apocenter toward the pericenter of its orbit, than when it is moving from the pericenter toward the apocenter. Thus, there is evidence for a variety of relationships between repeating global events in the Phanerozoic and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy. Long-period variations in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with the orbital motion of the Sun, and increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with impacts. Mass extinctions are correlated with the impacts of large bodies, whose motions may have been perturbed by clouds of interstellar material concentrated toward the Galactic plane and by the shock front associated with the Perseus spiral arm, through which the solar system passes. The velocity of the Sun relative to the spiral pattern is estimated.     

摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值问题探讨

通过对广珠东线高速公路横沥大桥的试桩及土体的工程地质条件分析,总结出影响摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值的一般问题以及解决问题的方法和措施。     

从榴辉岩与围岩的关系论苏鲁榴辉岩的形成与折返

位于华北和扬子两板块碰撞带中的苏鲁榴辉岩形成的温压条件不但是超高压，而且是高温。榴辉岩的PTt轨迹表明其为陆-陆磁撞俯冲带的产物。榴辉岩的区域性围岩花岗质片麻岩为新元古代同碰撞期花岗岩，榴辉岩及其他直接围岩皆呈包体存在于其中，并见新元古代花岗岩呈脉状侵入榴辉岩包体中。区域性围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石中发现有柯石英、绿辉石等包裹体，表明新元古代花岗岩的组成物质也经受过超高压变质作用，且榴辉岩与围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石U-Pb体系同位素年龄基本相同。但新元古代花岗岩所记录的变质作用和变形作用期次（或阶段）却少于榴辉岩。椐上述可得如下推断：超高压榴辉岩与新元古代花岗岩岩浆是同时在碰撞带底部（俯冲板块前部）形成的；榴辉岩的第一折返阶段是由新元古代花岗岩岩浆携带上升的，其第二折返阶段是和新元古代花岗岩一起由逆冲及区域性隆起而上升，遭受剥蚀。     

某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析

在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。      

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

Paleomagnetic implications on the evolution of the tethys belt from the atlantic ocean to the pamirs since the triassic

We first re-examined the apparent polar wander curves for stable Eurasia and Africa since the Triassic. These curves were then combined together with curves of North and South America according to the kinematics of the Atlantic ocean and a synthetic polar wander curve was given. Then, most of the paleomagnetic results from the Tethys mobile belt, from the Atlantic to the Pamirs, were analysed.Several groups of plates, microplates and blocks can be seen. First, relatively stable regions like Maghreb and Sicily, which have not moved much. Then we have a group formed by Iberia, Sardinia, Italy and, to a lesser extent, Corsica and the Western and Central Alps. For these blocks, movements are anticlockwise rotations chiefly driven by the anticlockwise rotation of Africa, but they are sometimes stronger.To the east, a major change takes place. The north of the Aegean Sea and the Ionian zone are clockwise rotated and these rotations are recent: Oligocene-Miocene for the first part, Pliocene to the present for the second part.A major problem arises in Turkey, Caucasus and Iran. Paleomagnetic results indicate a position far to the south of Eurasia, and, at the same time, geological evidence is in favour of a position close to Eurasia. We discuss these discrepancies.