鲁北平原东部巨淀湖岩心沉积物记录的全新世环境演变

鲁北平原东部巨淀湖处于中国北方季风区,对全球气候变化响应敏感,为研究海岸带地区过去的气候环境演变提供了丰富的湖泊沉积资料。通过对巨淀湖钻孔岩心沉积物孢粉鉴定、粒度分析和AMS¹⁴C年代测定,探讨了鲁北平原地区8900 cal a BP以来的气候环境演变过程。结果表明: 8900—7625 cal a BP,气温较高,降水丰沛,气候较暖湿;7625—6810 cal a BP,气候整体呈变凉变干的趋势;6810—4435 cal a BP,温度回升,降水增加,显示了全新世中期整体温暖湿润的气候特征;4435—3150 cal a BP,气候整体寒冷湿润,其间也存在小幅的冷暖波动。中全新世期间5450—5280 cal a BP和4160—4090 cal a BP出现了明显冷干事件,这与中国乃至全球范围内的地质气候记录存在一致性,究其原因可能是受到太阳辐射变化导致的赤道辐合带南移、大洋海表温度变化以及地表植被的反馈作用的共同影响。     

1939年海河流域洪涝灾害的气象—水文—灾害过程浅析*

1939年为海河流域20世纪特大洪涝灾害年之一。根据历史文献记载及观测资料,从降水过程、洪水过程及受灾情况等方面对1939年海河流域洪涝灾害过程作了梳理,得出以下结论: (1)1939年的洪涝灾害是7—8月份3次大范围集中暴雨导致的,集中降水出现于7月9—15日、7月23—29日和8月11—13日。3次暴雨中心均集中在昌平—紫荆关—中唐梅一带,其7、8两个月份总降雨量最高达到1000 mm以上,向东向西逐渐减小。(2)1939年海河流域诸河径流随着7—8月份集中降雨而出现涨落变化,稍滞后于降水变化1~2天,各河流最大流量和水位出现在7月23—29日集中降水后,并开始涨溢、决口,各河水位至8月底各河上游降雨中止而渐渐回落,9月中旬天津市区各河水位骤落,10月份以后洪水才迟缓退去,而洪水泛滥引发的涝灾一直延续到1940年。(3)1939年洪涝灾害在海河南系和北系都有发生,共造成150多个县市受灾,大部分受灾县市农业减产甚至绝收,被灾耕地面积成数超过8成的县市主要分布在大清河下游沿线、永定河下游沿线和南运河下游沿线靠近天津市的地区。     

塔里木盆地中奥陶世一间房组沉积时期构造-沉积环境与原型盆地特征*

盆地原型研究有助于恢复盆地构造-岩相古地理和揭示盆山耦合,对油气勘探具有重要的指导意义。文中利用最新的钻井、地震及露头资料,以沉积相为研究实体,运用盆-山结合的思路,由点→线→面进行分析,重建了塔里木盆地中奥陶世一间房组沉积时期的构造-沉积环境,研究了原型盆地特征及性质。一间房组沉积时期,巴楚—塔中和塘南台内隆起为暴露剥蚀区;顺南—塘古巴斯—玉东台内洼地区发育低能的泥晶灰岩相;塔北和古城台地区发育大面积的台内颗粒滩相;柯坪台盆区发育深水瘤状灰岩—黑色页岩相;塔东深水盆地区经历了黑色页岩相→陆源碎屑浊积岩相的演变;库鲁克塔格—罗西台地区为继承发育的开阔台地相。该时期塔里木盆地构造-沉积格局具有由早奥陶世东西分异的台盆格局向晚奥陶世南北分异的隆坳格局过渡的特征,表现为塔西台地古地貌的分异和塔东深水盆地沉积性质的反转。该时期塔里木盆地整体具有克拉通内拗陷与边缘拗陷复合的性质,但在塔西克拉通内坳陷的南部叠加了前陆盆地的性质(塘南前隆和顺南—塘古巴斯—玉东后隆坳陷),在其西北部叠加了裂陷盆地的性质(柯坪克拉通边缘裂陷)。该时期塔里木盆地构造-沉积环境与原型盆地特征是其对周缘大地构造运动的响应。     

明清时期中国东部高温事件年表重建和分析*

气候变化的背景下,极端暖事件的频率有增加的趋势。通过“语义差异法”识别了明清时期的高温事件,对其高温程度进行分级,建立了1350—1910年中国东部的高温事件年表,并对高温事件的发生时间、年代际特征进行了分析。结果表明: 明清时期有41个年份记录了高温事件,36个年份出现极端高温事件;高温事件发生频率和强度存在一定的阶段性变化,这种阶段性变化与北半球及中国气温的冷暖阶段变化有一定对应,与极端冷事件频率基本呈反相变化,1700—1749年和1800—1859年是明清时期极端高温事件发生频率最高且强度最大的2个时段,分别对应小冰期中期1710—1760年较温暖的时期和小冰期末期,16世纪末至17世纪是小冰期中最寒冷的一个阶段,极端高温事件相对不频繁,极端冷事件则发生频繁;高温事件还具有连年或隔年再发的特点。尝试利用现代器测资料和站点相关的计算方法对高温事件记录点所可能反映的地理范围进行了探讨,长江下游地区和华北平原的案例分析表明,历史时期记录有限,但区域的单点高温记录可能反映了范围比较广的极端高温事件。     

公元1500—2000年印度尼西亚—菲律宾强火山喷发对中国中东部旱涝格局的影响*

强火山活动是气候变化的重要自然驱动因素,可导致中国降水出现年际或年代际变化,甚至极端的旱涝现象。探究位于中国邻域的印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发与中国旱涝分布格局的关系,有助于阐释中国旱涝发生的时空规律及机制,为预测未来火山爆发可能导致的降水异常提供借鉴。本文基于1500—2000年期间世界强火山活动和中国旱涝资料,运用时序叠加分析的方法辨识了印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发后中国旱涝在年际尺度上的时空变化特征,并对1815年Tambora火山喷发进行案例分析。结果表明印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发对中国的旱涝格局有一定的影响:强火山喷发后第0年至第2年,中国中东部各站点的整体变化为偏涝;在第3年,整体出现了偏旱的转变,且变化幅度相比其他年份较大;就地区而言,喷发后华北、华南地区分别出现了由旱转涝、由涝转旱的变化,并且这些变化大概持续了2~3年,随后2个区域均恢复了喷发前的旱涝趋势;印度尼西亚1815年Tambora火山喷发后0~3年,中国以涝情为主,但发生涝情的区域逐年在发生变化。     

矿床学思维方法探讨

矿床学是地球科学的一个分支,以其研究对象的复杂性(地质属性+经济属性+环境属性)而著称,也因此而有它特定的研究思维方法。笔者根据研究矿床的实践经验和理性思考,将矿床学研究思维方法概括为8个观点,即:(1)实践思维——实践出真知,实际调查矿床特征;(2)系统思维——成矿系统分析,把握全盘;(3)历史思维——矿床的形成、变化和保存;(4)经济思维——矿产资源、经济建设与社会发展;(5)环境思维——发展绿色矿业,改善生态环境;(6)全球思维——地球系统-成矿系统-勘查系统三结合;(7)战略思维——矿产资源是关系国家安全的战略资源;(8)辩证思维——唯物辩证法是指导矿床研究的基本哲学思想。运用上述思维方法,有助于提高矿床研究水平,为指导找矿发现和创新成矿理论做出新的贡献。     

前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常对中国东部春季极端降水频次的可能影响及预测价值

本文研究了前期冬季北极海冰与中国东部春季极端降水频次的联系及其可能机制,并进一步探讨了海冰异常信号对极端降水的预测价值。结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常与中国东部春季极端降水频次经验正交分解第一模态(EOF1)之间存在密切联系。当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏多时,冬季大气环流呈现出类北大西洋涛动(NAO)正位相的异常分布,并伴随经向的北大西洋三极型海温异常。该海温异常可以从冬季持续到春季,进而激发出从北大西洋到欧亚中纬度的纬向遥相关波列,在东亚地区引起气旋型环流异常。该气旋型环流异常会引起中国东部地区湿度显著增加,上升运动增强,从而为该地区极端降水的发生提供了有利的背景条件。相反,当前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常偏少时,其滞后引起的春季环流异常则不利于中国东部地区极端降水的发生。进一步的交叉检验结果表明,前冬戴维斯海峡—巴芬湾区域海冰异常信号对中国东部春季极端降水具有重要的预测价值。     

年代古地理学: 理论与实践*

古地理学研究和探讨的是地质历史时期的地表环境,是构造—环境(气候)—物质相互作用的产物。传统的古地理学及相应的构造古地理、生物古地理学等对大地构造演化及古大陆重建、油气勘探等起到了重要的作用。随着地球演化的深入研究,在多层圈的相互作用,特别是古气候、古环境等研究基础上,需要有机地把地表环境和构造环境相结合,并且综合考虑深层及浅层地质过程对古地理格局的形成和演化的制约。在传统的古地理学基础上,提出一个新的学科——年代古地理学,用以研究和探讨地质历史时期的地表过程。该学科是精细的同位素年代格架下的不同动力学—运动学—物质迁移—环境变迁形成古地理的研究,或者物质—力学—环境(气候)相互作用下的古地理格局的研究。旨在研究和探讨地表过程,亦即形成地表环境的过程,强调同一时间的多元性、不同空间的差异性和不同尺度的穿时性。文中以近年来研究的台湾、扬子及华北克拉通等地区的精细时间尺度下的古地理环境为例,进一步剖析年代古地理学对于重新理解和认识古构造格局演化的重要性。     

河北阳原盆地井儿洼剖面常量元素地球化学特征揭示的中更新世晚期以来气候变化*

阳原盆地发育一套第四纪河湖相地层,其中分布着丰富的古人类遗存,是研究古人类生存环境的理想地区之一。利用常量元素氧化物含量及其比值,研究了阳原盆地井儿洼剖面河湖相沉积物地球化学元素特征,以及阳原盆地近220,ka以来的气候变化过程。结果表明:(1)井儿洼剖面沉积物成分以SiO₂ 、Al₂O₃和CaO为主,含量范围分别为27.85%~53.23%、3.38%~12.97% 和 5.43%~28.36%;Fe₂O₃和MgO含量也较高(变化范围分别为2.65%~7.67%和 1.93%~14.42%),整体反映出半湿润—半干旱的沉积环境。(2)该区域中更新世晚期以来的气候表现为暖湿—偏冷偏湿—暖偏湿—凉偏湿—暖干的变化特征;各阶段水热组合特征以及内部明显的次级气候波动,显示了环境演化的复杂性。(3)与深海氧同位素阶段的对比表明,本区气候变化与全球变化具有一致性的同时也存在明显的区域特征。     

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷北部石炭系—二叠系残留地层沉积*

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷北部石炭系—二叠系残留地层为近年来该地区油气勘探的重点领域。为明确古潜山储集层沉积相带与砂体展布规律,在地层划分对比的基础上,依据测井曲线、沉积构造、岩性特征及沉积序列等资料,对济阳坳陷北部石炭系—二叠系古潜山区沉积特征进行了系统研究。结果发现: (1)古潜山区石炭系—二叠系残留地层厚度变化很大,石千峰组被剥蚀殆尽; (2)石炭纪—二叠纪研究区经历了海陆交互相→海陆过渡相→河流相的演化过程, 其中本溪组及太原组沉积时期研究区发育潟湖、潮坪及障壁岛相,山西组沉积时期发育三角洲相,以三角洲平原亚相为主,可识别出分流河道、分流河道间、天然堤及泥炭沼泽等微相,而上、下石盒子组沉积时期以辫状河沉积为主,可进一步划分为心滩、河床滞留沉积及泛滥平原微相; (3)受沉积环境演化的控制,本溪组—太原组的砂体呈斑块状展布,山西组和上、下石盒子组的砂体呈近北东—南西向条带状展布。对济阳坳陷北部潜山区沉积相与砂体展布规律的研究,为该古潜山区的油气勘探提供了关键地质依据。     

Relationship between social stability and climate change in the Tang Dynasty

This paper quantitatively divides the Tang Dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods,and discusses the relationship between the social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refered to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division,we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos periods. The results of social division are as follows: from AD 618 to AD 626,and from AD 743 to AD 784,as well as from AD 860 to AD 907 were the chaotic periods;while from AD 627 to A0 742,and from AD 785 to AD 859 were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that,climate change,general wars,rebellions,offensive border wars,defensive border wars,agricultural harvests,and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos,except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang Dynasty. In chaotic periods,the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars,while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show the decrease of agricultural harvest due to lower temperature and less precipitation leads to the shortage of resources supply,so that the likelihood of rebellions increase;while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall,increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. Due to the limitations of technology and land resources,offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur.     

Climate,disasters, wars and the collapse of the Ming Dynasty

Based on the historical records of natural disasters and human wars of the final 35 years in the late Ming Dynasty (1610–1644 AD) obtained using different spatial scales, a set of grading systems were established to classify, grade and present these records and their spatiotemporal characteristics. From natural and human perspectives to quantitative analyses of the direct causes of the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, the author draws conclusion regarding a total of six immediate factors, which were, according to the rate of contribution from high to low, internal rebellions, drought, inter-ethnic conflicts, locust, flood and external wars. Among these causes, human factors accounted for approximately 47%, while natural factors accounted for approximately 53%. Attribution analysis indicated that the basin areas in east China were sensitive to climate change during the Ming Dynasty. Severe drought and locusts in a cooling environment were the main natural causes, while frequent internal rebellions and inter-ethnic conflicts influenced by financial crisis were the major human factors. Although natural factors accounted for a greater percentage than human factors in the rate of contribution to the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, they were the only external factors impacting social development and changes.     

Climate Change, Geopolitics, and Human Settlements in the Hexi Corridor over the Last 5,000 Years

Social responses to climate change over human history have been widely discussed in academia over the last two decades. However, the transformation of the human–environment nexus crossing prehistoric and historic periods and the processes associated with it are not yet clearly understood. In this study, based on published works on radiocarbon dating, archaeobotany, zooarchaeology, and archaeological sites, together with a synthesis of historical documents and highresolution paleoclimatic records, we trace the extent to which human settlement patterns in the Hexi Corridor in northwestern China evolved in conjunction with climate change over the last 5,000 years. A total of 129 Neolithic, 126 Bronze Age, and 1,378 historical sites in the Hexi Corridor(n=1,633) were surveyed. Our results show that, in the Late Neolithic and Bronze Age periods(～2800–100 BC), climate change contributed to the transformation of subsistence strategies and the subsequent changes in human settlement patterns in the Hexi Corridor. The warm-humid climate in ～2800–2000 BC promoted millet agriculture and helped the Majiayao, Banshan, and Machang Cultures to flourish. The cold-dry climate in ～2000–100 BC resulted in the divergence and transformation of subsistence strategies in the Xichengyi–Qijia–Siba and Shajing–Shanma Cultures and in a shift in their settlement patterns. However, in the historical period(121 BC–AD 1911), human settlement patterns were primarily determined by geopolitics related to the alternating rule of regimes and frequent wars, especially in the Sui–Tang dynasties. We also find that trans-Eurasian cultural exchange since ～2000 BC improved social resilience to climate change in the Hexi Corridor, mediating the human–environment nexus there. Our findings may provide insights into how human societies reacted to climate change in arid and semi-arid environments over the long term.     

Hydrological Variations and the Ancient Silk Road in the Northern Tarim Basin between Han and Sui Dynasties

The fluctuation pattern of China's civilization can be ascribed to climate change and historical geopolitical variations. The ancient Silk Road served as the most prosperous route connecting East Asia and Europe during Han Dynasty(206 BC–220 AD) and Sui-Tang Dynasties(581–907 AD), but was deserted in Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties(220–580 AD), of which the Tarim Basin was a key area. However, our understanding about the decline of the route during this period remains limited. Here, we present an ～7-year resolution record based on optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) age-depth model(ca. 120 BC–750 AD) from Luntai(LT) profile, about 5 km from the modern Tarim River, which fed the ancient oases, to assess the potential causes on the documented decline of the ancient Silk Road between Late Han and Sui dynasties. In this study, five episodes of hydrological change were identified by combining grain size, magnetic susceptibility, geochemistry and TOC/TN contents. Our reconstruction reveals that cold and wet climate dominated at 120 BC–50 AD and 550–750 AD, respectively, indicated by strong hydrodynamic conditions. Relatively warm and humid climate occurred at 120–550 AD, between Eastern Han and Sui-Tang dynasties, indicating a better and more suitable local environment. A comparison between the studied region and other areas of China demonstrates that the paleoclimatic variations in eastern and western China exhibit rough discrepancies, and the hydrological conditions in arid region is inconsistent with the decline of ancient Silk Road in the northern Tarim Basin. We suggest that political and societal factors are the key issues that caused the interruption of Silk Road during Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties, such as the co-occurrence of societal crises, turmoil and division in eastern China, rather than the deteriorating climatic condition in the northern Tarim basin.     

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

Analysing the contribution of climate and non-climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10-year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad ). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal-scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural–socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浑沌气候学研究进展

对近几十年来兴起的动力气候模式作了全面的介绍和分析,指出气候系统是一类浑沌动力系统,具有对参数和初值的极其敏感性、内在随机性,以及自相似性等。Lorenz最先发现气候系统中的浑沌性质,之后Saltzman建立一系列简单的海洋、大气、海冰耦合的动力气候模式,通过对这些模式的试验研究,揭示了气候随太阳辐射、二氧化碳、气溶胶等参数的变化规律及其浑沌动力学性质。这些性质都表现在各种气候因子的时间序列中,为此,人们开始从时间序列中提取动力系统的演变信息,如计算分维数、Lyapunov指数以及建立相空间预报模式等。本文就上述问题的研究进展进行了全面的综述并作了展望。     

西辽河流域古代文明的生态背景分析

基于孢粉、炭屑显微结构、古土壤遥感资料,并结合西辽河流域文化景观的时空格局,探讨了人地关系相互作用机制.历史时期西辽河流域的环境变化有两个适宜期和两个欠适宜期,与此相适应,文化景观则表现为农业文化的3次兴盛:上古农业文化兴盛期;中古农业文化兴盛期;近代农业文化兴盛期.在这3个农业兴盛期中,人类生态足迹逐渐扩大,对资源的利用程度逐渐加强,对该区域的景观面貌的影响逐渐增大.西辽河流域景观演变不表现为简单的南北摆动,而是表现为区域尺度上景观的"弹性变化".     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示简

The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the social economic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.     

杜诗记载的唐代荆湘地区寒冬及其古气候意义

中国唐代诗人杜甫(公元712—770年)的诗中,有15首记载了公元768和769年唐代荆湘地区连续2年冬季出现的寒冷气候。公元768和769年冬季,洞庭湖及以南的潭州(今湖南长沙)地区出现降雪,公元769年早春甚至出现洞庭湖局部结冰的现象。杜诗记载的冷冬及洞庭湖结冰事件,在其他史料中未曾发现,是对史料中唐代洞庭湖地区寒冷和结冰记录的补充。公元768和769年气候寒冷事件发生在8世纪中叶以后,是公元750年之后唐代气候变冷过程中的一次重要事件。     

历史时期关中地区气候变化的初步研究

关中地区地理位置特殊,是中华民族的一个重要发祥地,历史时期气候曾发生多次明显的变化。通过对这一地区考古发掘、抱粉分析研究成果以及丰富的史籍文献、地方志等资料的收集、整理、分析,划分出全新世早期寒冷、全新世中期暖湿、西周冷干、春秋至西汉前期暖润、西汉后期至北朝凉干、隋和唐前中期暖润、唐后期至北宋凉干、金前期温干、金后期和元凉干、明清冷干等10个气候变化阶段,从而建立起该地区历史时期完整的气候变化序列。