人类活动、自然灾害和活动构造研究

人类活动是生物圈中最重要的活动之一.半个世纪以来,人类活动的重要特征就是人口的城市化.地球的岩石圈、水圈、气圈不断变化,其中许多剧烈的变化,表现为自然灾害,严重影响生态环境,对人类形成威胁.随着经济发展和人口的城市化,这种人类活动和生态环境的相互作用越来越紧密,自然灾害越来越严重.本文利用GDP作为人类活动的度量,定量地分析了人类活动和自然灾害的关系.另外强调,活动构造作为第四纪地质学研究的一部分,是了解环境演变和灾害发生机理的地学基础,将成为十分活跃的新研究领域.     

湖南省自然灾害风险可接受程度研究

自然灾害是湖南省面临的主要灾害之一,确定自然灾害风险可接受程度对该省的可持续发展意义重大。通过分析湖南省2010～2020年因灾死亡人数与经济损失、总人口、GDP等数据,参照国内外相关研究,开展自然灾害风险可接受水平研究。取意愿系数β=0.01,确定个人生命可接受风险标准;使用人均GDP这一指标,量化个人可接受经济风险;根据最低合理可行准则,分别构建社会生命与经济风险可接受准则模型。结果表明：个人可接受和可容忍生命风险分别为10^-6/a和10^-5/a;个人可接受经济风险指数为0.01,即个人经济风险的可接受风险范围不超过人均GDP的1%;因灾死亡100人的概率大于10^-9、经济损失10亿元的概率大于10^-2都属于不可接受风险。研究结果可用于辅助湖南省自然灾害风险的评估、决策与管理,也为其他地区相关研究提供参考。     

问与答

问水文工作能为减轻自然灾害做些什么? 答所谓自然灾害通常指把以自然变异为主因产生的并表现为自然态的灾害。自然灾害有许多种,仅与水有关的灾害就有暴雨、洪水、旱涝、冰雹、风暴潮、滑坡和泥石流等。要减轻这些灾害造成的损失,一是要作出灾害的水文情报和预报,加强防范措施;二是     

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库，构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平（CL）指标，并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种，即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴，构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度（QC）指标，并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此，在定性分析的基础上，通过半定量计算，将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级，编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图，并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。     

毫州市经济技术开发区地质灾害危险性综合分区评估及防治措施

当今人类社会正面临着人口急剧膨胀、资源严重短缺和环境日益恶化的严峻挑战。地质灾害是自然灾害的主要类型之一,广泛分布在全国各地。地质灾害风险评估的目的就是要通过已有的资料和目前的地质现象,并且考虑多种影响因素来分析地质灾害的发生情况,得到灾害发生的难易程度,可以帮助有关部门方便的获得其所要研究区域的地质灾害评估结果,为有关部门的灾害预测和提出有效、科学的防灾、减灾及救灾措施提供依据,这对城市建设与发展具有重要的指导意义。     

亳州市经济技术开发区地质灾害危险性综合分区评估及防治措施

当今人类社会正面临着人口急剧膨胀、资源严重短缺和环境日益恶化的严峻挑战.地质灾害是自然灾害的主要类型之一,广泛分布在全国各地.地质灾害风险评估的目的就是要通过已有的资料和目前的地质现象,并且考虑多种影响因素来分析地质灾害的发生情况.得到灾害发生的难易程度,可以帮助有关部门方便的获得其所要研究区域的地质灾害评估结果,为有关部门的灾害预测和提出有效、科学的防灾、减灾及救灾措施提供依据,这对城市建设与发展具有重要的指导意义.     

新疆喀什地区城市自然灾害综合风险评估

在分析城市灾害风险内涵的基础上,从致灾因子、历史灾情、暴露易损性、抗灾恢复力四个层面构建了新疆喀什地区城市灾害风险评估的二级评价指标体系,综合运用多指标综合评价模型,对喀什地区城市自然灾害进行了分析;采取1991-2011年数据对喀什地区自然灾害风险数据进行了定量评估.结果表明:1991-2003年间城市自然灾害风险呈现波动趋势,2004年以后城市社会经济的快速发展等原因使自然灾害发生频率较往年呈现增长趋势,这直接影响该地区城市灾害风险变化.最后,在定量分析的基础上提出了完善城市灾害风险管理的对策和建议.     

我国自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题

减轻自然灾害是一项系统工程，它包括对自然灾害的监测、预报、评估、防灾、抗灾、救灾、恢复、教育、保险与综合管理。通过对我国自然灾害评估现状的分析，介绍了目前我国国家级、省级和城市级自然灾害评估中亟待解决的若干问题，认为由国家、地方、主管部门组织开展全国自然灾害区划、加强自然灾害综合预报、建立自然灾害与灾情预评估、灾害应急评估与灾情评定、灾害应急救助与救援管理系统、积极开展灾害保险与灾区恢复、灾害教育与宣传、实现科学化、现代化灾害管理、实现灾害信息共享、开展减灾效益评估及建立综合减灾系统等是我国目前自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题。     

灾害恢复力研究进展综述

自20世纪以来，随着人口、资源与环境矛盾的日益加深，全球各区域的自然灾害成灾次数、经济损失和受灾人口明显增多，自然灾害灾情不断上升，灾害风险已经成为可持续发展的最大障碍。风险、脆弱性、恢复力和适应性相关的灾害综合管理和减灾作为实施可持续发展的重要途径，已被学术界、经济与社会界予以高度重视。在国际减灾十年（IDNDR）活动、国际减灾战略（ISDR）的相继实施的大背景下，国内外学者兴起了研究灾害脆弱性和恢复力的新一轮热潮。目前国内外对承灾体脆弱性的研究较多，但对于灾害恢复力的恢复力研究才刚刚起步，虽然承灾体的恢复力建设近年来也逐渐被认识到是减灾行动中的一个重要环节。20世纪70年代开始，恢复力这一概念首先从力学被引入生态领域，目前，它已经成为生态、灾害和气候变化等多个学科共同关注的对象。对恢复力的概念发展和国内外目前的研究动态进行了较全面的综述，论述了灾害恢复力的科学价值和重要性，分析了灾害脆弱性与灾害恢复力的关系，总结了恢复力评估的主要方法、特点和难点，并在此基础上对灾害恢复力未来研究进行了展望，提出了研究的关键问题并建议进行更深入的研究。     

论自然灾害防治的国际比较与经验借鉴

世界上自然灾害多发国家和地区，特别是发达的多灾国家，通过积累经验和科学总结，健全完善了一套灾害防治应急运作和管理体系，值得我国学习和借鉴。通过对国外救援管理体系和抗震建筑科学立法等比较研究，综合我国国情，找出适合我国预防灾害和灾后重建的管理体系和有效途径。     

The need for data: natural disasters and the challenges of database management

Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.     

Urbanization process and induced environmental geological hazards in China

Urbanization is a common development trend of countries all over the world, which is a mark of civilization and progress of human beings. The number of urbanization-induced environmental geological hazards has grown steadily in recent years and is receiving increased attention throughout the world. The purpose of this paper is to generalize China’s urbanization process and induced environmental geological hazards. Driving forces and characteristics of urbanization are briefly introduced in this study; specifically, the distribution of urban agglomerations is principally related to water resources, transportation and energy. Common geological hazards and particular ones in mountain city, mining city and coastal city are also summarized. The type and severity of hazards are different due to the differences of natural conditions and various urban functions. Main environmental geological hazards in cities are land subsidence, landslide and seawater intrusion, etc. Accordingly, reasons for these urbanization-induced geological hazards in different type of cities are analyzed and discussed. The research results may provide a clear perspective for urban geological hazard prevention, and suggestions for urban geological hazard control are pointed out.     

中国城市建设与地质灾害综述

在大量调查、分析与研究的基础上，结合中国经济发展中城市快速发展面临的一系列地质灾害，采用自然科学与社会科学相互交叉的方法，分析了城市地质灾害的危害性及对城市发展的影响，根据中国城市发展的实际情况和2001年以后的远景目标，因地制宜地提出了整治城市灾害的基本对策与管理措施，为国家制定城市发展远景规划和奋斗目标提供基本思路。     

Active faulting and natural hazards in Armenia, eastern Turkey and northwestern Iran

Active fault zones of Armenia, SE Turkey and NW Iran present a diverse set of interrelated natural hazards. Three regional case studies in this cross-border zone are examined to show how earthquakes interact with other hazards to increase the risk of natural disaster. In northern Armenia, a combination of several natural and man-made phenomena (earthquakes, landslides and unstable dams with toxic wastes) along the Pambak-Sevan-Sunik fault (PSSF) zone lowers from 0.4 to 0.2–0.3g the maximum permissible level (MPL) of seismic hazard that may induce disastrous destruction and loss of life in the adjacent Vanadzor depression.

In the Ararat depression, a large active fault-bounded pull-apart basin at the junction of borders of Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, an earthquake in 1840 was accompanied by an eruption of Ararat Volcano, lahars, landslides, floods, soil subsidence and liquefaction. The case study demonstrates that natural hazards that are secondary with respect to earthquakes may considerably increase the damage and the casualties and increase the risk associated with the seismic impact.

The North Tabriz–Gailatu fault system poses a high seismic hazard to the border areas of NW Iran, eastern Turkey, Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and southern Armenia. Right-lateral strike–slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of 1.2 million.

The examples illustrate how the concentration of natural hazards in active fault zones increases the risk associated with strong earthquakes in Armenia, eastern Turkey and NW Iran. This generally occurs across the junctions of international borders. Hence, the transboundary character of active faults requires transboundary cooperation in the study and mitigation of the natural risk.     

三峡工程库区迁建城镇新址地质环境质量综合评价与对比

通过建立地质环境质量综合评价指标体系,运用灰色聚类方法,对三峡工程库区九座迁建城镇新址的地质环境质量进行了综合对比分析,划分出三个质量等级。地质环境质量等级反映了迁建城址环境组成要素与人类工程活动和社会经济发展的适宜程度。单要素地质体质量,城市综合灾度和自然资源优势度是主要的影响因素。     

兰州市市区地质灾害分布与防治建议

兰州地处中国地理中心,肩负着经济建设和战略转移的重任,同时兰州又是在中国滑坡、泥石流灾害最严重的城市之一。近50年来,共发生地质灾害194次,造成630人伤亡,直接经济损失3.4亿元。新的调查显示,全区地质灾害隐患点394处,其中泥石流126条,滑坡95处、崩塌28处、地面塌陷11处、不稳定斜坡134处。根据危险性评估,威胁特重的有69处,重的有100处,中度的有149处,轻度的有76处。区内地质构造发育、新构造运动强烈,地形地貌复杂,降雨集中,人类活动强烈,通过对兰州市区地形、地貌特点和滑坡泥石流危害及成因分析,提出了防治对策。     

兰州市市区地质灾害分布与防治建议

兰州地处中国地理中心，肩负着经济建设和战略转移的重任，同时兰州又是在中国滑坡、泥石流灾害最严重的城市之一。近50年来，共发生地质灾害194次，造成630入伤亡，直接经济损失3．4亿元。新的调查显示，全区地质灾害隐患点394处，其中泥石流126条，滑坡95处、崩塌28处、地面塌陷11处、不稳定斜坡134处。根据危险性评估，威胁特重的有69处，重的有100处，中度的有149处，轻度的有76处。区内地质构造发育、新构造运动强烈，地形地貌复杂，降雨集中，人类活动强烈，通过对兰州市区地形、地貌特点和滑坡泥石流危害及成因分析，提出了防治对策。     

Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China

To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters.     

辽宁省主要矿业城市地质灾害防治与地质环境可持续发展

可持续发展的思想已成为世界各国制定社会和经济发展战略的重要依据。地质环境可持续发展理论,是当前科技工作者研究的首要课题,也是矿业城市发展的理论依据。论文根据辽宁省主要矿业城市特殊的地质环境条件、地质灾害治理现状,分析因采煤引发的地质灾害主要类型及危害,探讨地质灾害防治措施,提出矿业城市地质环境保护与可持续发展规划建议。虽然人类对地质环境的改造远远超过自然灾害的破坏程度,但是地质环境是可持续发展的。保护地质环境,就是保护城市建设、经济发展所需的物质基础,说到底就是保护人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础。