基于模块化建模方法的寒区水文过程模拟——在中国西北寒区的应用

中国西北高山、 高原广泛分布着冻土和积雪, 春季融雪和冻土融化是该地区重要的水文过程.基于模块化的寒区水文建模环境CRHM, 根据流域水文过程特征和观测数据约束, 选取描述不同寒区子水文过程的模块构建寒区水文模型, 并基于长期观测的两个典型寒区小流域来验证模块化的寒区水文模型.在冰沟流域, 主要模拟雪的积累/消融、 雪的升华、 融雪下渗和融雪径流过程. 结果显示: 冰沟流域积雪升华占降雪量(145.5 cm)的48%, 其中风吹雪引起的升华损失量(35 cm)占积雪升华(69 cm)的一半, 风速和辐射引起的积雪升华是该地区积雪物质平衡的重要组成; 构建的寒区水文模型可以再现春季积雪消融引起的径流过程.在左冒孔冻土流域, 主要模拟冻土下渗过程、 冻土坡面产流过程和土壤冻融对径流的影响. 结果显示: 构建的寒区水文模型可以捕捉到春季主要的冻土融化径流过程.两个流域的验证结果揭示: 模块化的建模方法在搭建模型结构的时候减少了模型的不确定性, 所以在未经率定的情况下, 具有在无资料和资料缺少地区模拟寒区水文要素和水文过程的能力.     

Assessment of LULC and climate change on the hydrology of Ashti Catchment,India using VIC model

The assessment of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change over the hydrology of a catchment has become inevitable and is an essential aspect to understand the water resources-related problems within the catchment. For large catchments, mesoscale models such as variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model are required for appropriate hydrological assessment. In this study, Ashti Catchment (sub-catchment of Godavari Basin in India) is considered as a case study to evaluate the impacts of LULC changes and rainfall trends on the hydrological variables using VIC model. The land cover data and rainfall trends for 40 years (1971–2010) were used as driving input parameters to simulate the hydrological changes over the Ashti Catchment and the results are compared with observed runoff. The good agreement between observed and simulated streamflows emphasises that the VIC model is able to evaluate the hydrological changes within the major catchment, satisfactorily. Further, the study shows that evapotranspiration is predominantly governed by the vegetation classes. Evapotranspiration is higher for the forest cover as compared to the evapotranspiration for shrubland/grassland, as the trees with deeper roots draws the soil moisture from the deeper soil layers. The results show that the spatial extent of change in rainfall trends is small as compared to the total catchment. The hydrological response of the catchment shows that small changes in monsoon rainfall predominantly contribute to runoff, which results in higher changes in runoff as the potential evapotranspiration within the catchments is achieved. The study also emphasises that the hydrological implications of climate change are not very significant on the Ashti Catchment, during the last 40 years (1971–2010).     

Assessment of soil erosion risk using SWAT model

Soil erosion is one of the most serious land degradation problems and the primary environmental issue in Mediterranean regions. Estimation of soil erosion loss in these regions is often difficult due to the complex interplay of many factors such as climate, land uses, topography, and human activities. The purpose of this study is to apply the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict surface runoff generation patterns and soil erosion hazard and to prioritize most degraded sub-catchment in order to adopt the appropriate management intervention. The study area is the Sarrath river catchment (1,491 km²), north of Tunisia. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories for conservation intervention. Results showed that a larger part of the watershed (90 %) fell under low and moderate soil erosion risk and only 10 % of the watershed was vulnerable to soil erosion with an estimated sediment loss exceeding 10 t?ha^?1?year^?1. Results indicated that spatial differences in erosion rates within the Sarrath catchment are mainly caused by differences in land cover type and gradient slope. Application of the SWAT model demonstrated that the model provides a useful tool to predict surface runoff and soil erosion hazard and can successfully be used for prioritization of vulnerable areas over semi-arid catchments.     

Drought–flood variation and its correlation with runoff in three headstreams of Tarim River, Xinjiang, China

The Tarim River lies in the inland area of Northwest China, which has a semiarid or arid climate. Because of relatively scarce precipitation in this area, the main water resource is runoff from a mountainous drainage basin. It is very important to ascertain variations of regular hydrologic and meteorological time series data. Through the use of monthly precipitation and hydrologic data in the three headstream mountain areas of the Tarim River over the past 50 years, this work analyzes the variation of a drought–flood index and annual runoff volume, along with spatio-temporal structures of the index related to runoff at multiple time scales, via non-parametric testing and a wavelet transform method. Wavelet transform can clearly demonstrate many characteristics of the time series, including trend, shift, and major periods. Based on the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the drought–flood indices showed increasing trends for the Aksu and Yarkand rivers, and rose non-significantly for Hotan River. The indices of the three headstreams changed remarkably (p < 0.05) in 1986. The curves of wavelet variance show that significant periods of the indices are 4 and 8 years for Aksu and Hotan rivers, and 8 and 10 years for Yarkand River; (2) runoff of the Aksu and Hotan rivers had significant periods of 6 and 8 years, plus 3 and 9 years for Hotan River; (3) there was significant correlation between the drought–flood indices and annual runoff volume in the three headstreams. The results provide important information toward achieving predictability of flood and drought in Northwest China.     

Runoff and water budget of the Liudaogou Catchment at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China

The objectives of this study were to examine the runoff characteristics and to estimate water budget at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China. A small catchment known as Liudaogou that has representative meteorological and hydrological conditions of the wind–water erosion crisscross region was chosen as the study location. A numerical model for rainfall-runoff was developed and verified; rainfall-runoff calculation for 5 years (2005–2009) was performed. The observed data and numerical result of the surface runoff were used for evaluating runoff characteristics and estimating the annual water budget. Runoff rate was proportional to average intensity of rain. Even though rainfall duration was for few minutes, surface runoff was generated by intensity of more than 2.6 mm × 5 min^?1, when rainfall duration exceeded 10 h; surface runoff was generated by an intensity of 0.6 mm × 5 min^?1, while annual runoff rate was 10–15 %. The unit area of 1 km² was adopted as the index area for estimating annual water budget. Runoff, evapotranspiration, variation of water storage, and habitant water consumption accounted for 20.4, 75.6, 0, and 4 % of the total annual precipitation, respectively. Results of this study provide the basis for further research on hydrology, water resources, and sustainable water development and utilization at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the northern Loess Plateau where annual water resources are relatively deficient.     

Streamflow response to regional climate model output in the mountainous watershed: a case study from the Swiss Alps

Regional climate model (RCM) outputs are often used in hydrological modeling, in particular for streamflow forecasting. The heterogeneity of the meteorological variables such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and solar radiation often limits the ability of the hydrological model performance. This paper assessed the sensitivity of RCM outputs from the PRUDENCE project and their performance in reproducing the streamflow. The soil and water assessment tool was used to simulate the streamflow of the Rhone River watershed located in the southwestern part of Switzerland, with the climate variables obtained from four RCMs. We analyzed the difference in magnitude of precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed with respect to the observed values from the meteorological stations. In addition, we also focused on the impact of the grid resolution on model performance, by analyzing grids with resolutions of 50 × 50 and 25 × 25 km². The variability of the meteorological inputs from various RCMs is quite severe in the studied watershed. Among the four different RCMs, the Danish Meteorological Institute provided the best performance when simulating runoff. We found that temperature lapse rate is significantly important in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated watershed as compared to other variables like precipitation, and wind speed for hydrological performance. Therefore, emphasis should be given to minimum and maximum temperature in the bias correction studies for downscaling climatic data for impact modeling in the mountainous snow and glacier dominated complex watersheds.     

阿克苏河洪水类型及其形成的500hPa环流特征

利用阿克苏河两条支流和干流的月径流量以及年最大洪峰流量资料,分析了阿克苏河的洪水特征.阿克苏河西支托什干河主汛期在5~8月,北支库玛拉克河与阿克苏河干流的主汛期在7~8月,库玛拉克河的洪水对阿克苏河干流洪水作用更大.托什干河洪水以融雪型、融雪叠加暴雨型两种类型为主,库玛拉克河洪水以融雪(冰)型、融雪(冰)叠加冰湖溃坝型为主,阿克苏河干流洪水以混合型最多见,其次是融雪(冰)型.年最大流量排名前15位的洪水中,阿克苏河两条支流与干流在1987年以后分别出现了7~9a,在此基础上分析归纳了三类形成阿克苏河流域主要洪水的500hPa环流模型.阿克苏河流域主汛期形成混合型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊稳定在天山山区中部及以东地区,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山上空或天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以东的南疆盆地上空,中亚地区为副热带低槽活动区,环流形势相对稳定.主汛期形成融雪(冰)型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:新疆高压脊向北发展且稳定维持3d以上,5880gpm等高线北界稳定在天山以北,西部边界在帕米尔高原以西.春季形成融雪型洪水的500hPa环流特征为:帕米尔高原及西天山受新疆高压脊控制,稳定维持3d以上,高压脊内5840gpm等高线北边界维持在40°N以北.     

概念性水文模型在出山径流预报中的应用

根据HBV水文模型的基本原理，建立了西北干旱区内陆河出山径流概念性水文模型。该模型反映了我国西部山区流域的径流形成特征，将山区流域划分为高山冰雪冻土带和山区植被带两个基本海拔景观带来对山区径流的形成和汇流过程进行模拟计算，以常规气象站的月气温和降水量为模型的初始输入，模拟计算月出山径流量。应用该模型对河西走廊黑河祁连山北坡的山区流域水量平衡进行了模拟计算，并对年径流和逐月分配进行了预报。结果表明，从枯水年到丰水年，降水量、蒸发量、径流量和径流系数均增加，而冰川融水和积雪融水对出山径流的补给比重则减少，这表明了冰雪融水对径流的具有调节作用。黑河山区流域径流系数远比干旱内流区的平均值大，但要小于全国的平均径流系数。所提出的内陆河山区流域出山径流的模拟和预报模型对年径流量和月分配的预报具有较好的精度，可用于黑河以及其他西北干旱区内陆河出山径流的预报，为内陆河流域中下游的水资源分配和开发利用提供依据。     

A distributed water-heat coupled model for mountainous watershed of an inland river basin of Northwest China (I) model structure and equations

It is absolutely necessary to quantify the hydrological processes in earth surface by numerical models in the cold regions where although most Chinese large rivers acquire their headstreams, due to global warming, its glacier, permafrost and snow cover have degraded seriously in the recent 50 years. Especially in an arid inland river basin, where the main water resources come from mountainous watershed, it becomes an urgent case. However, frozen ground’s impact to water cycle is little considered in the distributed hydrological models for a watershed. Took Heihe mountainous watershed with an area of 10,009 km², as an example, the authors designed a distributed heat-water coupled (DWHC) model by referring to SHAW and COUP. The DWHC model includes meteorological variable interception model, vegetation interception model, snow and glacier melting model, soil water-heat coupled model, evapotransporation model, runoff generation model, infiltration model and flow concentration model. With 1 km DTM grids in daily scale, the DWHC model describes the basic hydrological processes in the research watershed, with 3∼5 soil layers for each of the 18 soil types, 9 vegetation types and 11 landuse types, according to the field measurements, remote sensing data and some previous research results. The model can compute the continuous equation of heat and water flow in the soil and can estimate them continuously, by numerical methods or by some empirical formula, which depends on freezing soil status. However, the model still has some conceptual parameters, and need to be improved in the future. This paper describes only the model structure and basic equations, whereas in the next papers, the model calibration results using the data measured at meteorological stations, together with Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) outputs, will be further introduced.     

Study of cloudburst and flash floods around Leh, India, during August 4–6, 2010

Leh and surrounding region of the Ladakh mountain range in the trans-Himalaya experienced multiple cloudbursts and associated flash floods during August 4–6, 2010. However, 12.8 mm/day rainfall recorded at the nearest meteorological station at Leh did not corroborate with the flood severity. For better understanding of this event, hydrological analysis and atmospheric modeling are carried out in tandem. Two small catchments (<3 km²) were studied along the stream continuum to assess the flood characteristics to identify the cloudburst impact zones. Peak flood discharges were estimated close to the head wall region and at the catchment outlet of the Leh town and the Sabu eastern tributary catchments. Storm runoff depth is estimated by developing a triangular hydrograph by using the known time base of the flood hydrograph. This triangular hydrographs have been transformed further into storm hydrographs to gain a better understanding of the storm duration by using the dimensionless hydrograph method at selected cross sections. Storm duration is estimated by using the relationship between time to peak and time of concentration of the catchment. The peak flood estimates ranged from 122(±35 %) m³/s for Leh town catchment (2.393 km²), 545(±35 %) m³/s for Sabu eastern tributary catchment (2.831 km²) to 1,070(±35 %) m³/sec for Sabu catchment (64.95 km²). To assess the atmospheric processes associated with this event, a triple nest simulation (27, 9 and 3 km) is performed using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. The simulation does show the evolution of the event from August 4 to 6, 2010. Observation constraints, orographic responses, etc. make such analysis complex at such scale. Independent estimate by the atmospheric process model and the hydrological method shows the storm depth of 70 mm and 91.8(±35 %) mm, respectively, in catchment scale. Hydrological evaluation further refined the spatial and temporal extents of the cloudbursts in the respective catchments with an estimated storm depth of 209(±35 %) mm in 11.9 min and 320(±35 %) in 8.8 min occurring in an area of 0.842–1.601 km², respectively. This study shows that the insight developed on the cloudburst phenomena by the atmospheric and the hydrological modeling is hugely constrained by the spatial and temporal scales of data used for the analysis. Apart from this, study also highlighted the regular occurrence of cloudburst events over this region in the recent past. Most of such events go unreported due to lack of monitoring mechanisms in the region and weaken our ability to understand these events in complete perspective.     

Analysis of snowmelt model for flood forecast for water in arid zone: case of Tarim River in Northwest China

Field studies were carried out in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China for analysis of snowmelt model for flood forecast for a river in arid zone. Snow is a major source for water availability in arid zone of Northwest China where 50% of snow cover withdrew by sublimation during dry and cold climatic condition. The analysis of weekly forecast of daily discharges was helped by the temperature index model, ARIMA model for temperature and flow, D-IUH runoff model and D-IUH model estimation where the temperature forecast was used as driving variable; the numerical simulations were carried out using SUSA^® software for testing the sensitivity of the D-IUH to the input values of the parameter and an analysis of the forecast results against the set of input parameters resulted in a determination coefficient R ² = 0.5. The standard deviation was 3.28 and the mean for the Tarim River was 5.37 (mm d^?1) implying that the forecasted data is in strong agreement with the observed data. The combination of methods is better useful for calculation in order to avoid errors of appreciation.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux variation and its contribution area in the debris-covered area of Koxkar Glacier,Mt. Tianshan in China

During the formation and development of glacial meltwater runoff, hydrochemical erosion is abundant, especially the hydrolysis of K/Na feldspar and carbonates, which can consume H⁺ in the water, promote the formation of bicarbonate by dissolving atmospheric CO₂, and affect the regional carbon cycle. From July 21, 2015, to July 18, 2017, the CO₂ concentration and flux were observed by the eddy covariance (EC) method in the relatively flat and open moraine cover area of Koxkar Glacier in western Mt. Tianshan, China. We found that: (1) atmospheric CO₂ fluxes ranged from ??408.95 to 81.58 mmol m^?2 day^?1 (average ? 58.68 mmol m^?2 day^?1), suggesting that the study area is a significant carbon sink, (2) the CO₂ flux footprint contribution areas were primarily within 150 m of the EC station, averaging total contribution rates of 93.30%, 91.39%, and 90.17% of the CO₂ flux in the snow accumulation, snow melting, and glacial melting periods, respectively. Therefore, the contribution areas with significant influences on CO₂ flux observed at EC stations were concentrated, demonstrating that grassland CO₂ flux around the glaciers had little effect at the EC stations, (3) in the predominant wind direction, under stable daytime atmospheric stratification, the measurement of CO₂ flux, as interpreted by the Agroscope Reckenholz Tanikon footprint tool, was 79.09% ± 1.84% in the contribution area. This was slightly more than seen at night, but significantly lower than the average under unstable atmospheric stratification across the three periods of interest (89%). The average distance of the farthest point of the flux footprint under steady state atmospheric conditions was 202.61?±?69.33 m, markedly greater than that under non-steady state conditions (68.55?±?10.34 m). This also indicates that the CO₂ flux observed using EC was affected primarily by hydrochemical erosion reactions in the glacier area, (4) a good negative correlation was found between net glacier exchange (NGE) of CO₂ and air temperature on precipitation-free days. Strong ice and snow ablation could promote hydrochemical reactions of soluble substances in the debris area and accelerated sinking of atmospheric CO₂. Precipitation events might reduce snow and ice melting, driven by reduced regional temperatures. However, a connection between NGE and precipitation, when less than 8.8 mm per day, was not obvious. When precipitation was greater than 8.8 mm per day, NGE decreased with increasing precipitation, (5) graphically, the slope of NGE, related to daily runoff, followed a trend: snow melting period?>?snow accumulation period?>?early glacial ablation period?>?late glacier ablation period?>?dramatic glacier ablation period. The slope was relatively large during snow melting, likely because of CO₂ sinking caused by water–rock interactions. The chemical reaction during elution in the snow layer might also promote atmospheric CO₂ drawdown. At the same time, the damping effect of snow cover and the almost-closed glacier hydrographic channel inhibited the formation of regional runoff, possibly providing sufficient time for the chemical reaction, thus promoting further CO₂ drawdown.     

“西南河流源区径流变化和适应性利用”重大研究计划进展综述

西南河流源区是中国的水资源战略储备区,但其未来水资源演变趋势不明,为厘清气候变化下的径流变化规律以开展适应性利用,国家自然科学基金委于2015年启动了“西南河流源区径流变化和适应性利用”重大研究计划,本文对重大研究计划的总体情况和主要进展进行综述。重大研究计划实施以来取得了一系列研究成果:构建了西南河流源区天空地一体化监测体系,有效提升了西南河流源区的监测能力;创新了高原寒区径流水源组成的多元综合解析方法,揭示了高原寒区典型径流水源的形成机理及气候驱动下流域下垫面与水文系统的协同变化机理;创建了综合冰雪冻土寒区水文过程和示踪过程的分布式同位素水文模型,揭示了雅鲁藏布江径流变化的历史规律和未来趋势;提出了河流全物质通量概念,开展了大量取样检测,揭示了高原河流生源物质循环及生物响应规律,量化了澜沧江梯级水库运行的环境累积效应;发展了多目标互馈系统理论,从水量、水能、水质3个方面创新了梯级水库适应性利用技术,为西南水电消纳、澜沧江-湄公河水资源合作等国家重大需求提供了支撑。     

A test of J2000 model in a glacierized catchment in the central Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, the application of a fully distributed hydrological model J2000 with limited hydrological data was investigated in an alpine small and glacierized catchment, the Qugaqie (55 km² with 7.3% glacier area), in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP). The J2000 was examined to investigate the influence on model performance, as well as on data, parameters and sensitivities. The model was calibrated with time series of discharge at the basin outlet for the summers of 2006 and 2007 and validated for the summer of 2008 by examining multiple objective functions. The model coefficients of determination were 0.62 and 0.91 for the calibration periods in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and 0.56 for the validation period in 2008. Simulated discharge was generally less than the observed values for the calibration and validation periods. The sensitivity to alteration in meteorological parameter has revealed that a change in air temperature would cause a dramatic increase of discharge in the Qugaqie catchment. Hypothetical climate scenario experiments showed that the increase of air temperature by 1°C resulted in 14% increase in runoff, whereas 20% increase in precipitation caused 9% increase in runoff but 12% reduction in glacier melt.     

Runoff and sediment yield modeling by means of WEPP in the Bautzen dam catchment,Germany

Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation in Europe. There are many undesirable consequences of soil erosion due to water such as loss of water storage capacity in reservoirs and transfer of pollutants from farmland to water bodies. The objectives of this study were to calibrate and validate the Water Erosion Prediction Project watershed model (WEPP 2012.8) in the Bautzen dam catchment area with monthly and daily single events for runoff and sediment yield. This is to our knowledge the first study using WEPP in Germany. The catchment (310 km²) was subdivided into small sub-catchments with an area of <260 ha as recommended in WEPP. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the runoff is highly sensitive to the effective hydraulic conductivity in Bautzen, whereas the sediment yield is highly sensitive to rill erodibility, critical shear stress, and to the effective hydraulic conductivity as well. All these parameters were initially calculated using WEPP’s built-in equations and parameters, which, however, produced very poor results for both runoff and sediment yield. Therefore, the model was calibrated for 2 years (2005–2007) and validated for another 2 years (2008–2009) against monthly measurements, in addition to 14 daily single events from the calibration period and 2010. The monthly results were compared with the monthly measurements on the basis of a continuous simulation. Results of calibration and validation periods show a satisfactory performance of WEPP with a determination coefficient R ² above 0.6 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients above 0.50 for runoff and sediment yield. Thus, the model could be used to simulate runoff and sediment yield, and used in scenario studies in the Bautzen dam catchment area.     

Cryosphere as a temporal sink and source of microplastics in the Arctic region

Microplastics (MPs) pollution has become a serious environmental issue of growing global concern due to the increasing plastic production and usage. Under climate warming, the cryosphere, defined as the part of Earth’s layer characterized by the low temperatures and the presence of frozen water, has been experiencing significant changes. The Arctic cryosphere (e.g., sea ice, snow cover, Greenland ice sheet, permafrost) can store and release pollutants into environments, making Arctic an important temporal sink and source of MPs. Here, we summarized the distributions of MPs in Arctic snow, sea ice, seawater, rivers, and sediments, to illustrate their potential sources, transport pathways, storage and release, and possible effects in this sentinel region. Items concentrations of MPs in snow and ice varied about 1–6 orders of magnitude in different regions, which were mostly attributed to the different sampling and measurement methods, and potential sources of MPs. MPs concentrations from Arctic seawater, river/lake water, and sediments also fluctuated largely, ranging from several items of per unit to >40,000 items m^?3, 100 items m^?3, and 10,000 items kg^?1 dw, respectively. Arctic land snow cover can be a temporal storage of MPs, with MPs deposition flux of about (4.9–14.26) × 10⁸ items km^?2 yr^?1. MPs transported by rivers to Arctic ocean was estimated to be approximately 8–48 ton/yr, with discharge flux of MPs at about (1.65–9.35) × 10⁸ items/s. Average storage of MPs in sea ice was estimated to be about 6.1×10¹⁸ items, with annual release of about 5.1×10¹⁸ items. Atmospheric transport of MPs from long-distance terrestrial sources contributed significantly to MPs deposition in Arctic land snow cover, sea ice and oceanic surface waters. Arctic Great Rivers can flow MPs into the Arctic Ocean. Sea ice can temporally store, transport and then release MPs in the surrounded environment. Ocean currents from the Atlantic brought high concentrations of MPs into the Arctic. However, there existed large uncertainties of estimation on the storage and release of MPs in Arctic cryosphere owing to the hypothesis of average MPs concentrations. Meanwhile, representatives of MPs data across the large Arctic region should be mutually verified with in situ observations and modeling. Therefore, we suggested that systematic monitoring MPs in the Arctic cryosphere, potential threats on Arctic ecosystems, and the carbon cycle under increasing Arctic warming, are urgently needed to be studied in future.     

Application of the water balance model J2000 to estimate groundwater recharge in a semi-arid environment: a case study in the Zarqa River catchment, NW-Jordan

Pollution and overexploitation of scarce groundwater resources is a serious problem in the Zarqa River catchment, Jordan. To estimate this resource’s potential, the amount and spatial distribution of groundwater recharge was calculated by applying the hydrological model J2000. The simulation period is composed of daily values gathered over a 30-year period (July 1977 to June 2007). The figure finally obtained for estimated groundwater recharge of the Zarqa River catchment is 105 × 10⁶ m³ per year (21 mm a^?1). This is 19 % higher than the value previously assumed to be correct by most Jordanian authorities. The average ratio of precipitation to groundwater recharge is 9.5 %. To directly validate modelled groundwater recharge, two independent methods were applied in spring catchments: (1) alteration of stable isotope signatures (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) between precipitation and groundwater and (2) the chloride mass balance method. Recharge rates determined by isotopic investigations are 25 % higher, and recharge rates determined by chloride mass balance are 9 % higher than the modelled results for the corresponding headwater catchments. This suggests a reasonably modelled safe yield estimation of groundwater resources.     

Integration between morphometric parameters,hydrologic model,and geo-informatics techniques for estimating WADI runoff (case study WADI HALYAH—Saudi Arabia)

In arid and semiarid areas, the only surface and groundwater recharge source is the runoff generated through flash floods. Lack of hydrological data in such areas makes runoff estimation extremely complicated. Flash floods are considered catastrophic phenomena posing a major hazardous threat to cities, villages, and their infrastructures. The objective of this study is to assess the flash flood hazard and runoff in Wadi Halyah and its sub-basins. Integration of morphometric parameters, geo-informatics, and hydrological models has been done to overcome the challenge of scarcity of data.Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) data was used to prepare a digital elevation model (DEM) with 30-m resolution, and geographical information system (GIS) was used in the evaluation of network, geometry, texture, and relief features of the morphometric parameters. Thirty-eight morphometric parameters were estimated and have been linked together for producing nine effective parameters for evaluation of the flash flood hazard in the study basin.Flash flood hazard in Wadi Halyah and its sub-basins was identified and grouped into three classes depending on nine effective parameters directly influencing the flood prone areas. Calculated runoff volume of Wadi Halyah ranges from 26.7 × 10⁶ to 111.4 × 10⁶ m³ with an inundation area of 15 and 27 km² at return periods of 5 and 100 years, respectively. Mathematical relationships among rainfall depth, runoff volume, infiltration losses, and rainfall excess demonstrate a strong directly proportional relationships with correlation coefficient of about 0.99.     

Performance evaluation and parameters sensitivity of a distributed hydrological model for a semi-arid catchment in India

In present study, a distributed physics based hydrological model, MIKE SHE coupled with MIKE 11, is calibrated using multi-objective approach, i.e., minimization of error in prediction of stream flows and groundwater levels, using the data of eight years from 1991 to 1998 of Yerli sub-catchment \((\hbox {area} = 15{,}881\,\hbox {km}^{2})\) of upper Tapi basin in India. The sensitivity analyses of thirteen model parameters related with overland flow, unsaturated and saturated zones have been undertaken while simulating the runoff volume, peak runoff at catchment outlet and groundwater levels within the catchment with wide variations \((\pm 50\%)\) in the model parameters. The calibrated model has also been validated for prediction of stream flow and groundwater levels within the Yerli sub-catchment for period 1999–2004. The simulated results revealed that calibrated model is able to simulate hydrographs satisfactorily for Yerli sub-catchment (NSE \(=\) 0.65–0.89, \(r=0.80{-}0.95\)) at daily and monthly time scales. The ground water levels are predicted reasonably satisfactorily for the plain area (RMSE \(=\) 0.50–6.50 m) in the study area. The results of total water balance indicated that about 78% of water is lost from the system through evapotranspiration, out of which about 3.5% is contributed from the groundwater zone.     

基于CMIP5和VIC模型的长江上游主要水文过程变化趋势预测

基于长江上游流域82个气象站点的实测数据和国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5,CMIP5)的2种排放情景下的8个气候模式1961～2099年的降水、气温数据,通过等距离累积分布函数法(Equidistance Cumulative Distribution Function Method,EDCDFm)进行气候模式的统计降尺度。在此基础上,构建0.5°×0.5°网格空间分辨率的可变下渗容量水文模型(Variable Infiltration Capacity,VIC),对历史流量进行模拟,并进一步模拟分析长江上游流域2006～2099年径流量、蒸散发的时空演变趋势。结果表明:VIC水文模型能够较好地模拟研究区的水文过程,从长江上游流域未来时期(2006～2099)主要水文过程变化趋势的预测来看,径流量变化趋势不明显、蒸散发呈增加趋势。此研究对于合理规划配置长江流域水资源及为气候影响评价和决策系统提供科技支撑具有重要意义。