The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been described by some as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability, and by others as a blend of two sometimes independent modes having distinct spatial and temporal characteristics of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability. A growing body of evidence highlights a strong tendency for PDO impacts in the Southern Hemisphere, with important surface climate anomalies over the mid-latitude South Pacific Ocean, Australia and South America. Several independent studies find evidence for just two full PDO cycles in the past century: “cool” PDO regimes prevailed from 1890–1924 and again from 1947–1976, while “warm” PDO regimes dominated from 1925–1946 and from 1977 through (at least) the mid-1990's. Interdecadal changes in Pacific climate have widespread impacts on natural systems, including water resources in the Americas and many marine fisheries in the North Pacific. Tree-ring and Pacific coral based climate reconstructions suggest that PDO variations—at a range of varying time scales—can be traced back to at least 1600, although there are important differences between different proxy reconstructions. While 20th Century PDO fluctuations were most energetic in two general periodicities—one from 15-to-25 years, and the other from 50-to-70 years—the mechanisms causing PDO variability remain unclear. To date, there is little in the way of observational evidence to support a mid-latitude coupled air-sea interaction for PDO, though there are several well-understood mechanisms that promote multi-year persistence in North Pacific upper ocean temperature anomalies.     

Sedimentary records of multidecadal-scale variability of diatom productivity in the Bungo Channel, Japan, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In order to examine the responses of primary productivity in the southern coastal sea of Japan to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the 20th century, sedimentary records of diatom productivity (diatom valve fluxes) were reconstructed using core samples from the Bungo Channel (BC) in southwest Japan. The record of the Thalassionema spp. flux—the best index of fall primary productivity in the BC—indicated a multidecadal-scale duration with a low flux (1943–1982) and those with a high flux (1913–1943 and 1982–2001); apparent shifts were recognized in 1943 and 1982. The shift in 1982 was also recognized in the flux records of other early summer to fall predominant genera in the BC and, previously, in the biogenic silica records from a broad region of the southeast BC. This indicates that in our records, this shift reflects a general trend in the primary production in the southeast BC. A comparison among the Thalassionema spp. flux records, meteorological data from an observatory adjacent to the core site, and the PDO index showed that the flux records were more similar to the PDO index than the other meteorological records, which suggests that the multidecadal-scale variability of the BC primary productivity may be associated with some marine-derived forcing. The bottom intrusions of nutrient-rich water that upwelled from the shelf slope into the BC, the axis movement or the transport of the Kuroshio Current off the BC, and a basin-scale wind stress in the North Pacific might play an important role in this forcing and mediate between the BC primary productivity and the PDO.     

PDO的三维空间结构和时间演变特征

利用再分析次表层海温资料和CCSM3模式的1870-1999年130 a模拟试验的结果,分析了北太平洋年代际变化(PDO)的三维空间结构和时间演变特征.结果表明,CCSM3模式较好的模拟了北太平洋年代际变化的主要特征,对再分析资料和模式结果的分析都表明从北太平洋表层至次表层的中层,年代际变化是非常显著的,PDO不仅仅局...     

冬季白令海海冰范围变化及其对大气响应机制研究

白令海是冬季北极海冰变化最明显的区域之一,该区域海冰的季节和长期变化与局地的气候、水文环境和生态系统密切相关,并会影响我国的天气气候过程。为了识别该区冬季海冰的长期变化,基于Hadley中心数据,采用滑动t检验和线性回归分析方法对白令海1960–2020年海冰范围的变化趋势及其空间差异进行分析,并分析了海冰变化对大气环流等大气强迫的影响。结果表明:白令海冬季海冰范围在1960–2020年显著减小,20世纪70年代和2000年前后白令海海冰范围存在显著的均值突变。其过程中伴随着阿留申低压中心低压加强、核心位置向白令海西部偏移以及对应风场分布的变化,这个过程存在一个近20 a周期的振荡。同时,太平洋年代际震荡的相位变化可以通过改变海平面气压来调节经向风,改变进入白令海的热平流,进而影响白令海冬季海冰范围。因此,阿留申低压系统和北太平洋年代际振荡对冬季白令海海冰的变化起到重要的调节作用。     

渤海海冰的年际和年代际变化特征与机理

根据1951-2013年间的渤海冰情等级资料,利用最大熵谱分析、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了渤海冰情等级的年际和年代际变化特征,探讨了局地气候、大气环流、ENSO(El Nio-Southern Oscillation)和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)对海冰的影响。结果表明,渤海海冰具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,并在1972年前后发生了一次由重到轻的气候跃变,在跃变后冰情较跃变前平均降低了0.7级。相关分析与合成分析结果显示,渤海冰情的年际变化除受局地气候的影响外,还受西太平洋副热带高压(副高)、极涡和欧亚环流的共同调控,特别在1972年以后,秋季副高、冬季欧亚和亚洲纬向环流对渤海冰情的年际变化均有重要影响,可作为渤海海冰预报的重要因子,而春季PDO、ENSO、冬季副高及欧亚和亚洲经向环流则是渤海冰情年代际变化的影响因素。     

南海海表面温度年代际异常变化特征及其与PDO的联系

利用奇异谱分析和小波分析的方法,分析了南海海表面温度异常(SSTA)在年代际尺度上的变化特征及其与太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)之间的关系.发现南海 SSTA 年代际振荡与年循环之间存在一定程度上的锁相:在冬、春季较强,而夏、秋季则较弱.此外,在过去的140多年,南海 SSTA 年代际振荡显著衰弱.通过与 PDO 指数进行相关分析发现,在年代际尺度上 PDO 与南海 SSTA 具有一定的相关性.一方面这种相关性只在20世纪前50年比较显著,这在一定程度上解释了为何南海 SSTA 的年代际振荡表现出衰减的趋势;另一方面,当 PDO 位相超前南海 SSTA 位相3到6个月时,两者表现出较强的相关性.进一步分析表明,PDO 可能通过调控赤道东太平洋 SST,从而影响南海 SSTA 的年代际变化.     

Inter-model variability of projected sea level changes in the western North Pacific in CMIP3 coupled climate models

We investigate sea level changes in the western North Pacific for twenty-first century climate projections by analyzing the output from 15 coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). Projected changes in the wind stress due to those in sea level pressure (SLP) result in the projected sea level changes. In the western North Pacific (30?50°N, 145?170°E), the inter-model standard deviation of the sea level change relative to the global mean is comparable to that based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. Whereas a positive SLP change in the eastern North Pacific (40?50°N, 170?150°W) induces a large northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), a negative SLP change in this region induces a strong intensification of the KE. Large inter-model variability of the SLP projection in the eastern North Pacific causes a large uncertainty of the sea level projection in the western North Pacific. Models with a larger northward shift (intensification) of the KE exhibit a poleward shift (an intensification) of the Aleutian Low (AL) larger than that for the MME mean. However, models that exhibit a larger intensification of the AL do not necessarily show a larger intensification of the KE. Our analysis suggests that the SLP change that induces an intensification of the KE is associated with a teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific, and that the SLP change that induces a northward shift of the KE is characterized by a zonal mean change.     

CCSM3对太平洋年代际振荡的敏感性试验

利用NCAR的CCSM3模式进行控制试验和1870-1999年的130 a模拟试验(敏感性试验),与相应的再分析资料进行对比,分析了太平洋海区的海温变化趋势和北太平洋年代际变率的时空结构,并且讨论了CO2对于北太平洋年代际变率的影响.结果表明:CCSM3模式能够模拟出北太平洋年代际变率的主要特征,其空间分布类似于典型的...     

Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes.     

Meridional and seasonal footprints of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on phytoplankton biomass in the northwestern Pacific Ocean

We used 16 years of multiplatform-derived biophysical data to reveal the footprint of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the phytoplankton biomass of the northwestern Pacific Ocean in terms of chlorophyll a concentration (Chl), and to discern the probable factors causing the observed footprint. There were meridional differences in the response of phytoplankton to changes of environmental conditions associated with deepening of the mixed layer during the positive phase of the PDO. In general, deepening of the mixed layer increased phytoplankton biomass at low latitudes (increase of Chl due to increase of nutrient supply), but lowered phytoplankton at high latitudes (decrease of Chl due to reduction of average irradiance and temperature in the mixed layer). The areas where Chl increased or decreased changed meridionally and seasonally in accord with regulation of nutrient and light/temperature limitation by changes of mixed layer depth. The observed PDO footprint on Chl in the northwestern Pacific is likely superimposed on the high-frequency component of the PDO excited by El Niño/Southern Oscillation interannual variability. On a decadal time scale, however, Chl in the northwestern Pacific were more strongly associated with the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation.     

Interdecadal modulation of interannual atmospheric and oceanic variability over the North Pacific

The interdecadal modulation of interannual variability of the atmosphere and ocean is examined over the North Pacific by using Wavelet Transform combined with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis. For the period of record 1899–1997, the interannual variability of the wintertime Aleutian Low, identified by either the North Pacific Index or the leading eigenvector (EOF-1) of North Pacific sea level pressure (SLP), exhibits an interdecadal modulation. Interannual variance in the strength of the Aleutian Low was relatively large from the mid-1920s to mid-1940s and in the mid-1980s, but relatively small in the periods from 1899 to the mid-1920s and from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. The periods of high (low) interannual variability roughly coincide with pentadecadal regimes having a time averaged relatively intense (weak) Aleutian Low. Consistent with this SLP variability the interannual variance in the zonal wind stress is strengthened in the central North Pacific after the 1970s. The SLP EOF-2, which is related to the North Pacific Oscillation, exhibited a strengthening trend from the beginning of this century to the mid-1960s. After the 1970s, the interannual variance of SLP EOF-2 is generally smaller than that in the period from 1930 to 1970. Similar interdecadal changes in interannual variance are found in expansion coefficients for the first two EOFs of the Pacific sector 500 hPa height field for the period 1946–1993. EOF-1 of Pacific sector 500 hPa corresponds to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, while EOF-2 is related to the Western Pacific (WP) pattern. The relative influence of the atmospheric PNA and WP interannual variability on North Pacific SSTs appears to have varied at pentadecadal time scales. Results from an SVD analysis of winter season (December–February) 500 hPa and North Pacific spring season (March–May) SST fields demonstrate that the PNA-related SST anomaly exhibited larger interannual variance after the 1970s, whereas the interannual variance of the WP related SST anomaly is larger before the 1970s. Correlations between the coastal North Pacific SST records and gridded atmospheric field data also change on interdecadal time scales. Our results suggest that the SST records from both the northwest and northeast Pacific coasts were more closely coupled with the PNA teleconnection pattern during the periods of 1925–1947 and 1977–1997 than in the regime from 1948 to 1976. Teleconnections between ENSO and preferred patterns of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific also appear to vary on interdecadal time scales. However, these variations do not reflect a unique regime-dependent influence. Our results indicate that ENSO is primarily related to the PNA (WP) pattern in the first (last) half of the present century. Correlation coefficients between indices for ENSO and PNA-like atmospheric variability are remarkably weak in the period from 1948 to 1976.     

热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响

本文利用1950-2015年间Hadley环流中心海冰和海温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了热带太平洋海温异常对北极海冰的可能影响,并从大气环流和净表面热通量两个角度探讨了可能的物理机制。结果表明,在ENSO事件发展年的夏、秋季节,EP型与CP型El Niño事件与北极海冰异常的联系无明显信号。而La Niña事件期间北极海冰出现显著异常,并且EP型与CP型La Niña之间存在明显差异。EP型La Niña发生时,北极地区巴伦支海、喀拉海关键区海冰异常减少,CP型La Niña事件则对应着东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海地区海冰异常增加。在EP型La Niña发展年的夏、秋季节,热带太平洋海温异常通过遥相关波列,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海平面气压为负异常并与中纬度气压正异常共同构成类似AO正位相的结构,形成的风场异常有利于北大西洋暖水的输入,同时造成暖平流,偏高的水汽含量进一步加强了净表面热通量收入,使得巴伦支海、喀拉海海冰异常减少。而在CP型La Niña发展年的夏季,东西伯利亚海、楚科奇海关键区受其东侧气旋式环流的影响,以异常北风分量占主导,将海冰从极点附近由北向南输送到关键区,海冰异常增加,而净表面热通量的作用较小。     

Effects of regional climate changes on the planktonic ecosystem and water environment in the frozen Notoro Lagoon,northern Japan

Diatom fossils from core sediments and living diatoms from water samples of Notoro Lagoon in northern Japan were examined to evaluate natural climate effects on lagoon environmental changes. In 1974, the artificial inlet was excavated. Immediately after, the anoxic bottom water in Notoro Lagoon began to disappear due to an increasing water exchange rate. However, chemical oxygen demand (COD) in the bottom water of Notoro Lagoon gradually increased, with fluctuations, during the last 30 years. In addition, the dominant diatom assemblages in Notoro Lagoon shifted to ice-related and spring bloom taxa after the excavation. The dominant taxa of each year in the sediment core were also strongly related to the timing of lagoon ice melting. This is because the COD in Notoro Lagoon was affected by the deposited volume of blooming diatoms, which was controlled by the duration of ice cover and the timing of ice discharge to the Okhotsk Sea likely due to an air pressure pattern change over the northern North Pacific like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).     

Shell growth history of geoduck clam (Panopea abrupta) in Parry Passage, British Columbia, Canada: Temporal variation in annuli and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

An assemblage of geoduck clam shells from the marine environment of coastal British Columbia was studied. Shells were cut and the widths of internal shell growth increments, annuli, were measured from the hinge plate. The largest shells showed more than one hundred annual increments. Shell growth exhibited juvenile maxima at ontogenetic ages 3–6 years. The growth maximum was followed by a distinct decline that continued until the death of each individual. Further, this ontogenetic growth trend was mathematically removed from the data in order to examine growth variations other than ageing. The longest growth records from the oldest shells were compared to monthly indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). It was found that the PDO exerts the strongest influence on the shell growth during the very start of the growing season, in February and March. We also detected increased magnitude of growth variations towards the end of the 20th century. Similar trends were apparent in the PDO record. Moreover, the shell specimen displaying the strongest trend of increasing variance had the strongest PDO-linked regional growth signal. Our results support the view that PDO exerts a governing influence on the biological and ecological system along Northeast Pacific coastal areas. Incorporation of geoduck shell growth increment analyses into multi-disciplinary studies dealing with palaeoceanography and archaeology is suggested as a promising future approach.     

Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming

1 IntroductionAs is well known, the increasing greenhousegas and SO2extricated into the atmosphere due to hu-man activities have alreadyresulted in the global sur-face air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temper-ature (SST) rising. The globally mean surf…     

Evidence of multidecadal climate variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a Gulf of Mexico sea-surface temperature-proxy record

A comparison of a Mg/Ca-based sea-surface temperature (SST)-anomaly record from the northern Gulf of Mexico, a calculated index of variability in observed North Atlantic SST known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and a tree-ring reconstruction of the AMO contain similar patterns of variation over the last 110 years. Thus, the multidecadal variability observed in the instrumental record is present in the tree-ring and Mg/Ca proxy data. Frequency analysis of the Gulf of Mexico SST record and the tree-ring AMO reconstruction from 1550 to 1990 found similar multidecadal-scale periodicities (~30–60 years). This multidecadal periodicity is about half the observed (60–80 years) variability identified in the AMO for the 20th century. The historical records of hurricane landfalls reveal increased landfalls in the Gulf Coast region during time intervals when the AMO index is positive (warmer SST), and decreased landfalls when the AMO index is negative (cooler SST). Thus, we conclude that alternating intervals of high and low hurricane landfall occurrences may continue on multidecadal timescales along the northern Gulf Coast. However, given the short length of the instrumental record, the actual frequency and stability of the AMO are uncertain, and additional AMO proxy records are needed to establish the character of multidecadal-scale SST variability in the North Atlantic.     

火山活动对于北大西洋涛动的激发作用

为了探索北大西洋涛动形成的大尺度大气物理场背景条件和外部强迫因子,通过对比分析、相关分析和环流系统温压场垂直结构分析得到:(1)强火山活动指数距平与冰岛低压和亚速尔高压海平面气压场(SLP)距平总体相关函数符号相反,强火山活动指数与冰岛低压SLP为反相关,与亚速尔高压SLP为正相关,就是说火山活动指数异常引起了高纬度冰岛低压和中低纬度亚速尔高压海平面气压场相反的变化趋势,形成高低纬之间海平面气压场反相振荡;(2)夏季7月亚速尔高压对流层中下层至海平面,温度距平中心和位势高度距平中心距平符号大致正正相对负负相对,说明夏季亚速尔高压为深厚暖性系统,低层温度升高亚速尔高压加强,低层温度降低亚速尔高压减弱,所以火山活动指数与亚速尔高压SLP均呈反相关关系;冬季1月对流层中下层至海平面,温度距平和位势高度距平符号大致正负相对,说明冬季亚速尔高压为浅薄系统,低层温度升高亚速尔高压减弱,低层温度降低亚速尔高压加强,所以火山活动指数与亚速尔高压SLP均呈正相关关系;(3)冬季1月冰岛低压对流层中下层至海平面,温度距平中心和位势高度距平中心距平符号大致正正相对负负相对,说明冬季冰岛低压为深厚冷性系统,低层温度升高冰岛低压减弱,低层温度降低冰岛低压加深,所以火山活动指数与冰岛低压SLP均呈反相关关系;夏季7月对流层中下层至海平面,温度距平和位势高度距平符号大致正负相对,说明夏季冰岛低压为浅薄系统,低层温度升高冰岛低压减弱,低层温度降低冰岛低压加深,所以火山活动指数与冰岛低压SLP均呈正相关关系;(4).由于对流层中下层至海平面冰岛低压和亚速尔高压冬、夏季温压场结构特点基本相反,火山活动指数异常在两个环流系统中引起了相反响应,导致高低纬之间海平面气压场反相振荡,形成了影响广泛的著名的北大西洋涛动现象。     

热带西太平洋海表盐度的变化特征及其对淡水通量的响应

基于1980~2015年的全球简单海洋资料同化分析系统(SODA)、全球海气通量(OAFlux)和全球降水气候学计划(GPCP)等海洋、大气观测再分析资料,采用线性拟合、经验正交函数(EOF)分解、相关分析和波谱分析等数理统计方法,分析了热带西太平洋海表盐度(SSS)和淡水通量时空变化特征及其关系.结果表明,SSS与淡水通量的气候态及长期线性变化趋势有较好的空间对应关系,两者均有多种时间尺度的EOF模态,其年代际变化模态有较好的正相关关系,并与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)有密切的滞后相关.分析表明,PDO可能通过影响Walker环流的变化来影响热带西太平洋的淡水通量分布,从而影响SSS的时空格局.     

西北太平洋波候与大气涛动的联系

利用ECMWF 1958-2001年44 a的ERA-40海浪再分析资料计算了西北太平洋海域(0°~45°N,99°~160°E)月平均有效波高(SWH)、平均周期(T)与北太平洋模态指数(NPI)、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和多变量ENSO指数(MEI)等大气涛动之间的时间和空间的相关性,重点探讨了NPI对北半球西太平洋波候(SWH和T)的影响。结果表明:NPI、PDO和MEI均与SWH和T有显著的相关性;NPI与SWH和T呈现正相关性,NPI超前SWH和T半年左右正相关最强,最强的相关海域位于日本和菲律宾以东洋面;NPI还存在3~5 a、8~9 a和13~15 a的年际和年代际周期变化; NPI高指数且PDO负位相或MEI负位相均使得SWH和T 增大; MEI冷位相且叠加PDO负位相时也利于SWH和T增大。NPI影响西北太平洋波候的可能机制是:NPI处于低(高)指数时,阿留申低压加深(减弱)且位置偏东(西),北太平洋西风带海面风速急流出现(消失),太平洋副热带东北信风大值区东移(西移),西北太平洋海域信风减弱(加强),西北太平洋海域有效波高和平均周期随之减小(增大)。中、东太平洋西向传播的涌浪对西北太平洋海域波侯有重要影响。     

Causes of a fresher, colder northern North Atlantic in late 20th century in a coupled model

Observational evidence indicates that in the northern North Atlantic, especially in the Labrador Sea, almost the whole column of the ocean water is fresher, and colder in late 20th century than in 1950–1960s. Here we analyze a four-member ensemble of the 20th century simulations from a coupled climate model to examine the possible causes for these observed changes. The model simulations resemble the observed changes in the northern North Atlantic. The simulated results show that a decreased meridional freshwater divergence and an increased meridional heat divergence associated with a weaker thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic are the primary causes for the freshening and cooling in the northern North Atlantic. The increased precipitation less evaporation tends to enforce the freshening, but the reduced sea ice flux into this region tends to weaken it. On the other hand, the surface warming induced by a higher atmospheric CO₂ concentration tends to heat up the northern North Atlantic, but is overcome by the cooling from increased meridional heat divergence.