First and second baroclinic mode responses of the tropical Indian Ocean to interannual equatorial wind anomalies

The combined and individual responses of the first and second baroclinic mode dynamics of the tropical Indian Ocean to the well-known Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) wind anomalies are investigated. The IOD forced first baroclinic Rossby waves arrive at the western boundary in three months, while the reflected component from the eastern boundary with opposite phase arrives in five to six months, both carry input energy to the west. The inclusion of the second baroclinic mode slows down the wave propagation by mode coupling and stretches the energy spectrum to a relatively longer time scale. The total energy exists in the equatorial wave guide for at least five months from the forcing, as much as 10% of that of the atmospheric input, which mainly dissipates at the western boundary. The individual responses of the ocean to IOD interannual wind anomaly show that the significant modes of oceanic anomalies are confined to a wave guide of 10° on either side of the equator.     

How does the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole trigger the tropical Indian Ocean dipole via the Mascarene high？

The variation in the Indian Ocean is investigated using Hadley center sea surface temperature(SST)data during the period 1958–2010.All the first empirical orthogonal function(EOF)modes of the SST anomalies(SSTA)in different domains represent the basin-wide warming and are closely related to the Pacific El Ni o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon.Further examination suggests that the impact of ENSO on the tropical Indian Ocean is stronger than that on the southern Indian Ocean.The second EOF modes in different domains show different features.It shows a clear east-west SSTA dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean(Indian Ocean dipole,IOD),and a southwest-northeast SSTA dipole in the southern Indian Ocean(Indian Ocean subtropical dipole,IOSD).It is further revealed that the IOSD is also the main structure of the second EOF mode on the whole basin-scale,in which the IOD pattern does not appear.A correlation analysis indicates that an IOSD event observed during the austral summer is highly correlated to the IOD event peaking about 9 months later.One of the possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship is proposed.The IOSD and the IOD can occur in sequence with the help of the Mascarene high.The SSTA in the southwestern Indian Ocean persists for several seasons after the mature phase of the IOSD event,likely due to the positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback mechanism.The Mascarene high will be weakened or intensified by this SSTA,which can affect the atmosphere in the tropical region by teleconnection.The pressure gradient between the Mascarene high and the monsoon trough in the tropical Indian Ocean increases(decreases).Hence,an anticyclone(cyclone)circulation appears over the Arabian Sea-India continent.The easterly or westerly anomalies appear in the equatorial Indian Ocean,inducing the onset stage of the IOD.This study shows that the SSTA associated with the IOSD can lead to the onset of IOD with the aid of atmosphere circulation and also explains why some IOD events in the tropical tend to be followed by IOSD in the southern Indian Ocean.     

赤道印度洋海温偶极子的气候影响及数值模拟研究

在分析研究印度洋海温变化的基本特征,尤其是在分析赤道印度洋海温偶极子及其影响的基础上,利用IAP9L大气环流模式模拟研究了赤道印度洋海温偶极子异常对亚洲季风区气候变化的影响.其结果表明,印度洋、亚洲南部和东部地区的流场和降水都对印度洋海温异常的强迫作用比较敏感.正位相印度洋偶极子的作用使得赤道东印度洋-印度次大陆南部-阿拉伯海一带出现距平东风,孟加拉湾-中南半岛出现异常反气旋性环流,从而对减少印度南部和中南半岛南部、印度尼西亚地区的夏季降水,以及增加中国南部和东非的夏季降水有十分重要的作用.与此相反,负位相印度洋偶极子的作用将使赤道东印度洋附近出现西风异常,孟加拉湾-中南半岛存在异常气旋性环流,从而使印度次大陆和中南半岛南部、印度尼西亚地区的降水增加,使中国西部和孟加拉湾的降水减少.数值模拟结果与资料分析相互映证,切实地揭示了印度洋海温偶极子对亚洲季风区的气候变化有重要影响.     

北欧海大气低空辐合辐散的东西振荡模态及其相应的大气遥相关异常环流

北欧海作为连接北冰洋和北大西洋的重要海域,其由热效应产生的辐合场值得关注。本文利用NECP/NCAR的速度势函数(Velocity Potential,VP)数据表征北欧海辐合辐散场,发现在秋冬季北欧海上空大气低层存在一个独立的辐合区域。经验正交函数分解结果表明,北欧海上空的VP显示出除了表征北极涛动的全区一致型模态外,还表现出一个东西向辐合辐散反位相的东西振荡型模态。该模态与一支连接北大西洋涛动(NAO)和欧亚遥相关(EU)的复合型大气遥相关波列有关,北欧海表层潜热和感热异常加热通过影响低空大气的异常辐合辐散,与北大西洋偶极子型海温异常加热共同作用,加强了NAO异常环流;同时高空急流波导作用加强了从北欧海到东亚的EU波列,使得位于NAO和EU之间的北欧海成为连接NAO和EU大气遥相关波列的“中继站”,进而通过这种复合型大气遥相关波列将北大西洋与东亚大气环流联系起来,形成对东亚地区天气气候的远程影响。     

Numerical simulation of wave interactions during sudden stratospheric warming

Parameterizations of normal atmospheric modes (NAMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) are implemented into the mechanistic general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere (MUA). Numerical experiments of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are performed for climatological conditions typical for January and February using meteorological reanalysis data from the UK MET Office in the MUA model averaged over the years 1992–2011 with the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The simulation shows that an increase in the OGW amplitudes occurs at altitudes higher than 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after SSW. The OGW amplitudes have maximums at altitudes of about 50 km over the North American and European mountain systems before and during SSW, as well as over the Himalayas after SSW. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, significant (up to 50–70%) variations in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (SPWs) are observed during and after the SSW. Westward travelling NAMs have local amplitude maximums not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where there are waveguides for the propagation of these modes. Calculated variations of SPW and NAM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean temperature and wind fields, as well as the Eliassen-Palm flux and atmospheric refractive index for the planetary waves, during SSW. Including OGW thermal and dynamical effects leads to an increase in amplitude (by 30–70%) of almost all SPWs before and during SSW and to a decrease (up to 20–100%) after the SSW at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.     

海洋再分析资料中IOD-ENSO遥相关的海洋通道机制分析

本文利用滞后相关分析,研究了海洋再分析资料（SODA、ORAS4和GODAS）中的IOD-ENSO滞后遥相关关系,并与观测资料进行对比。结果显示,3套再分析资料中热带东南印度洋秋季海表温度/海表高度异常和赤道太平洋冷舌次年秋季海表温度/海表高度异常之间显著相关,与观测结果一致。在次表层,观测和再分析资料均显示,热带东南印度洋秋季海表温度异常与赤道太平洋次表层海温异常之间的显著相关关系在冬季至次年秋季沿赤道太平洋垂向剖面向东移动,并于次年夏季和秋季在冷舌区上升至海表。热带东南印度洋和赤道太平洋冷舌滞后1年的相关关系是由海洋通道机制引起的,即IOD事件引起印尼贯穿流流量异常,导致赤道太平洋温跃层异常,激发赤道Kelvin波向东传播,从而影响赤道中-东太平洋冷舌海表温度异常。观测及SODA与ORAS4资料中,热带东南印度洋和赤道太平洋冷舌滞后1年的相关关系在去除ENSO信号后仍然显著,表明海洋通道机制是独立于ENSO事件的;而在GODAS资料中,这些显著相关关系在去除ENSO信号后消失。印尼贯穿流流量异常和Niño3.4及DMI（Dipole Mode Index）指数之间超前-滞后12个月的相关关系显示,在SODA和ORAS4资料中,印尼贯穿流流量同时受到ENSO和IOD的影响,与观测结果一致;而在GODAS中,印尼贯穿流流量异常仅与Niño3.4指数显著相关,极少受到IOD事件的影响,这部分解释了GODAS资料中去除ENSO信号后,IOD-ENSO滞后遥相关关系消失的原因。     

Analysis of the reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere using the climate model of the institute of numerical mathematics,Russian academy of sciences

The reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere at extratropical latitudes is considered in calculations of the atmospheric module of the global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, with an upper boundary of 0.2 hPa (~60 km) for the period from 1979 to 2008 in comparison with the data observational. Changes in temperature, zonal wind, activity of planetary waves, heat fluxes in the lower stratosphere, and sudden stratospheric warmings with the displacement and splitting of the polar vortex, as well as the distribution of associated circulation anomalies in the troposphere, are analyzed.     

The impact of sea level rise and climate change on inshore wave climate: A case study for East Anglia (UK)

In coastal areas, offshore wave propagation towards the shore is influenced by water depth variations, due to sea bed bathymetry, tides and surges. Considering implications of climate change both on atmospheric forcing and sea level rise, a simple methodology involving numerical modelling is implemented to compute inshore waves from 1960 to 2099. Simulations take into account five scenarios of linear sea level rise and one climatic scenario for storm surges and offshore waves. The methodology is applied to the East Anglia coast (UK). Extreme event analysis is performed to estimate climate change implication on inshore waves and the occurrence of extreme events. It is shown, for this coastal region, that wave statistics are sensitive to the trend in sea level rise, and that the climate change scenario leads to a significant increase of extreme wave heights in the northern part of the domain. For nearshore points, the increase of the mean sea level alters not only extreme wave heights but also the frequency of occurrence of extreme wave conditions.     

Upwelling variability along the southern coast of Bali and in Nusa Tenggara waters

Spatial and temporal variation of upwelling along the southern coast of Bali and in the Nusa Tenggara waters — Indonesia was studied by using satellite image data of sea surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a from September 1997 to December 2008. This study clearly reveals annual upwelling in the regions from June to October, associated with the southeast monsoon cycle, with the sea surface temperature (chlorophyll-a concentration) being colder (higher) than that during the northwest monsoon. In addition, this study also shows that the upwelling strength is controlled remotely by ENSO and IOD climate phenomena. During El Niño/positive IOD (La Niña/negative IOD) periods, the Bali — Nusa Tenggara upwelling strength increases (decreases).     

Why was the 2008 Indian Ocean Dipole a short-lived event?

In this paper, the role of equatorial oceanic waves in affecting the evolution of the 2008 positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event was evaluated using available observations and output from a quasi-analytical linear wave model. It was found that the 2008 positive IOD was an early matured and abruptly terminated event: developed in April, matured in July, and diminished in September. During the development and the maturation of the 2008 positive IOD event, the wind-forced Rossby waves played a dominant role in generating zonal current anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while a complex interplay between the wind-forced upwelling Kelvin waves and the eastern-boundary-generated Rossby waves accounted for most of the variability in the eastern basin. The latter induced eastward zonal current anomalies near the eastern boundary during the peak phase of the event. The 2008 positive IOD event was abruptly terminated in mid-July. We found that there were strong eastward zonal currents in mid-July, though the surface wind anomalies in the eastern basin continued to be westward (upwelling favorable). Our analysis shows that these eastward zonal currents mainly resulted from the easternboundary-generated upwelling Rossby waves, although the contribution from the wind-forced downwelling Kelvin waves was not negligible. These eastward zonal currents terminated the zonal heat advection and provided a favorable condition for surface heat flux to warm the eastern basin.     

2000—2015年夏秋季孟加拉湾湾口区涡流相互作用能量学特征

文章主要使用全球简单海洋资料同化分析系统(Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, SODA)产出的海洋再分析数据产品和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)发布的风场资料, 通过能量学方法分析了2000—2015年夏季至秋季(6—11月)孟加拉湾涡-流相互作用特征在不同印度洋偶极子(Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD)事件发生年的表现。结果表明, 在IOD负位相年更强的西南季风背景下, 涡动能和涡势能的量值均较大, 海洋不稳定过程更多地将平均流场的能量输向涡旋场, IOD正位相年反之。另外, 研究发现孟加拉湾湾口区的涡动能在个别年份会发展出一种与气候态存在显著异常的空间分布, 即在个别年份湾口中央海域异常出现涡动能极大值。通过对出现该异常现象最显著的2010年进行个例分析, 发现当年的孟加拉湾海表风场发展出一个气旋式环流异常, 显著地改变了海洋上层环流形态, 极大地影响了平均流场与涡旋场之间的相互作用。进一步对维持涡动能平衡的各做功项进行诊断后发现, 湾口异常海域涡动能年际变化的主要影响因素为海洋内部的压强做功, 其次是正压不稳定过程和平流的做功, 海表风应力做功项贡献较小。     

东亚夏季气候主要模态的年际变化及其机理

主要研究了东亚(中国和日本)夏季气候(降水和气温)主要模态的年际变化及其机理。研究发现,中国区域夏季降水和气温的大尺度年际变化间有很强的耦合:大范围多(少)雨对应大范围低(高)温。奇异值分解的第一个模态的长期变化主要反映了长江中下游地区降水逐年增加(变湿)的趋势而气温逐年降低(变冷)的趋势。在70年代中期以后,长江中下游地区降水和气温耦合变化的准两年分量明显增强。研究表明,影响长江中下游地区夏季降水和气温年际变化的大尺度环流背景异常十分相似,即主要是两个遥相关型:太平洋-日本(PJ)型和欧亚型遥相关型。与夏季东亚梅雨异常相联系的长江中下游地区降水和气温异常是中高纬度干冷空气和低纬度暖湿空气相互作用的结果。热带西太平洋海表温度异常和相关的对流活动的年际变化通过PJ型对东亚地区夏季降水和气温的年际变化产生十分显着的影响。西太平洋对流活动与北半球大气环流遥相关的相互作用有明显的季节性。PJ型不仅是夏季西太平洋对流活动与北半球夏季热带外地区500hPa高度场年际变化耦合相互作用的最重要模态,而且也是两者各自变化的一个十分重要的模态。1984年夏季北半球500hPa位势高度主振荡型分析表明存在着能量从热带西太平洋向东亚北部的PJ型的振荡传播。低纬度的影响可传播到70°N,同时也存在能量从高纬度向低纬度的传播.即从极地传播到70°N。高纬度和低纬度的影响在70°N附近汇合。     

副热带一热带太平洋密跃层水量交换年际变化的模拟研究

利用一个全球海洋环流模式在3组风应力资料的强迫下模拟分析了副热带太平洋向热带太平洋密跃层水量输送的年际变化特征及其和风应力的关系,并设计数值试验,研究了密跃层水量输送的变化机制.结果表明,副热带太平洋向赤道太平洋的密跃层水量输送具有显著的年际变化.在年际时间尺度上,南北太平洋西边界密跃层水量输送都起着补偿内部路径输送的...     

Characteristics of coastal trapped waves along the southern and eastern coasts of Australia

The spatial structures and propagation characteristics of coastal trapped waves (CTWs) along the southern and eastern coasts of Australia are investigated using observed daily mean sea level data and results from a high-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM), and by conducting sensitivity studies with idealized numerical models. The results obtained from the sea level observations show that shortterm variations, with a typical period of 1 to 2 weeks, dominate the sea level variability in the southern half of Australia. The signal propagates anticlockwise around Australia with a propagation speed of 4.5 m/s or faster in the western and southern coasts and 2.1 to 3.6 m/s in the eastern coast. Strong seasonality of the wave activity, with large amplitude during austral winter, is also observed. It turns out that the waves are mainly generated by synoptic weather disturbances in the southwestern and southeastern regions. The numerical experiment with idealized wind forcing and realistic topography confirms that the propagating signals have characteristics of the CTW both in the southern and eastern coasts. Sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the difference in the phase speed between the coasts and reduction of the amplitude of the waves in the eastern coast are attributed to the different shape of the continental shelf in each region. The structures and the propagation characteristics of the CTWs around Australia are well reproduced in OFES (OGCM for the Earth Simulator) with dominant contribution from the first mode, although meso-scale eddies may modify the structure of the CTWs in the eastern coast. It is also found that generation or reinforcement of the waves by the wind forcing in the southern part of the eastern coast is necessary to obtain realistically large amplitude of the CTWs in the eastern coast.     

Modoki对南半球中高纬度气候及海冰异常的影响

利用诊断分析方法分析研究了热带太平洋ENSO Modoki现象对南半球中高纬度气候和海冰的影响。分析了ENSO Modoki现象的季节变化特征,并定义了ENSO Modoki的活跃年和活跃季节。利用偏相关分析、合成分析和超前滞后相关分析等诊断分析方法,分析了1979年1月到2010年12月间ENSO Modoki影响南半球中高纬气候及海冰异常的遥相关模态及可能的遥相关动力机制。研究结果显示费雷尔环流的异常变化是两者之间遥相关的可能方式。     

太平洋涌浪分布特征及其对海-气边界层的影响

本文对海-气边界层波致风机制的相关理论进行了阐述,并利用ERA-40再分析资料给出了太平洋谱峰速度、波龄、波陡等描述涌浪和波致风机制物理量的年际和季节空间分布特征。分析表明:东太平洋赤道地区等海域涌浪速度最大且涌浪由南向北传播明显;太平洋波边界层高度基本呈现出东高西低的分布形势;波致风机制主要发生在赤道热带海域,北半球夏季波致风机制偏强,冬季偏弱,南半球反之;北半球北部海域夏季更易发生波致风机制,赤道附近海域相反;南海为风浪与涌浪组成的混合浪,对其波候等相关研究有必要分开进行讨论。     

On energy transport and group velocity of water waves

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Intermediate time error growth and predictability: tropics versus mid-latitudes

The evolution of identical twin errors from an atmospheric general circulation model is studied in the linear range (small errors) through intermediate times and the approach to saturation. Between forecast day 1 and 7, the normalized error variance in the tropics is similar to that at higher latitudes. After that, tropical errors grow more slowly. The predictability time τ taken for tropical errors to reach half their saturation values is larger than that for mid-latitudes, especially for the planetary waves, thus implying greater potential predictability in the tropics.
The discrepancy between mid-latitude and tropical τ is more pronounced at 850 hPa than at 200 hPa, is largest for the planetary waves, and is more pronounced for errors arising from wave phase differences (than from wave amplitude differences).
The spectra of the error in 200 hPa zonal wind show that for forecast times up to about 5 d, the tropical error peaks at much shorter scales than the mid-latitude errors, but that subsequently tropical and mid-latitude error spectra look increasingly similar.
The difference between upper and lower level tropical τ may be due to the greater influence of mid-latitudes at the upper levels.     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

Theoretical study on waves in planetary fluids

This article reviews the author's study on waves in planetary fluids for which the Okada Prize of the Oceanographical Society of Japan was awarded in 1981. The contents of the review are i) some connections of planetary waves with the large-scale ocean circulation, ii) stability of planetary waves, iii) the relationship between mean currents and planetary waves, iv) the influence of topography on the mean current, v) a simple relationship between wave dissipation and viscous boundary layers and vi) some ageostrophic effects on large-scale phenomena. Studies now in progress and related suggestions are also described and discussed in the article