表面增暖形态决定了全球水汽加温度直减率反馈的不确定性

气候反馈通常是利用与全球平均表面温度升高相关的辐射效应变化来评估的。但是反馈的不确定性不仅仅是全球平均表面温度升高的函数。全球气候模式的预测表明，海表面温度变化的地域不同，给区域尺度上的大气环流和降水响应带来了重大不确定性。在本文中我们证明了表面增暖的空间格局是造成水汽-直减率综合反馈的不确定性的主要因素。基于运用辐射核理论计算的31个气候模型中，气温和相对湿度变化的全球平均辐射效应证明了这一观点。我们的结果突出了区域气候变化对气候反馈不确定性的重要贡献，并确定了世界上限制表面增暖形态对提高气候预测能力最有效的区域。     

Regional scenarios of sea level rise and impacts on Basque (Bay of Biscay) coastal habitats,throughout the 21st century

Global climate models have predicted a rise on mean sea level of between 0.18 m and 0.59 m by the end of the 21st Century, with high regional variability. The objectives of this study are to estimate sea level changes in the Bay of Biscay during this century, and to assess the impacts of any change on Basque coastal habitats and infrastructures. Hence, ocean temperature projections for three climate scenarios, provided by several atmosphere–ocean coupled general climate models, have been extracted for the Bay of Biscay; these are used to estimate thermosteric sea level variations. The results show that, from 2001 to 2099, sea level within the Bay of Biscay will increase by between 28.5 and 48.7 cm, as a result of regional thermal expansion and global ice-melting, under scenarios A1B and A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A high-resolution digital terrain model, extracted from LiDAR, data was used to evaluate the potential impact of the estimated sea level rise to 9 coastal and estuarine habitats: sandy beaches and muds, vegetated dunes, shingle beaches, sea cliffs and supralittoral rock, wetlands and saltmarshes, terrestrial habitats, artificial land, piers, and water surfaces. The projected sea level rise of 48.7 cm was added to the high tide level of the coast studied, to generate a flood risk map of the coastal and estuarine areas. The results indicate that 110.8 ha of the supralittoral area will be affected by the end of the 21st Century; these are concentrated within the estuaries, with terrestrial and artificial habitats being the most affected. Sandy beaches are expected to undergo mean shoreline retreats of between 25% and 40%, of their width. The risk assessment of the areas and habitats that will be affected, as a consequence of the sea level rise, is potentially useful for local management to adopt adaptation measures to global climate change.     

Analysis of 1989/1990 main physical fields for air-sea coupled system in the tropical western Pacific

In this paper, the marine ship observation data sets in the seventh (October 16-December 4. 1989) and eighth (June 1-July 16, 1990) cruises of PRC -US tropical ocean and global atmosphere (TOGA) joint scientific investigation in the tropical western Pacific are used to analyze the elements such as sea surface temperature (SST), surface wind field, fluxes and net heat budget, which are important physical parameters of underlying earth's surface influencing the global mean circulation evolution on seasonal and interannual time scales. These diagnostic analyses are very beneficial to the understanding of the regional climate characteristics and the air-sea interaction mechanism, and the improving of surface flux parameterizations and regional or global climate model.     

Non-stationary extreme value models to account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change

The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different ocean engineering applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. There exist many methods for estimating such return values, including the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach and the peaks-over threshold approach. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, many approaches to extreme value modelling assume stationary conditions and it is not straightforward how to include non-stationarity of the extremes due to for example climate change. In this paper, various non-stationary GEV-models for significant wave height are developed that account for trends and shifts in the extreme wave climate due to climate change. These models are fitted to block maxima in a particular set of wave data obtained for a historical control period and two future projections for a future period corresponding to different emission scenarios. These models are used to investigate whether there are trends in the data within each period that influence the extreme value analysis and need to be taken into account. Moreover, it will be investigated whether there are significant inter-period shifts or trends in the extreme wave climate from the historical period to the future periods. The results from this study suggest that the intra-period trends are not statistically significant and that it might be reasonable to ignore these in extreme value analyses within each period. However, when it comes to comparing the different data sets, i.e. the historical period and the future projections, statistical significant inter-period changes are detected. Hence, the accumulated effect of a climatic trend may not be negligible over longer time periods. Interestingly enough, such statistically significant shifts are not detected if stationary extreme value models are fitted to each period separately. Therefore, the non-stationary extreme value models with inter-period shifts in the parameters are proposed as an alternative for extreme value modelling in a climate change perspective, in situations where historical data and future projections are available.     

Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.     

Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications

Conservation managers and policy makers need tools to identify coastal habitats and human communities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal impact models can help determine the vulnerability of areas and populations to changes in sea level. Model outputs may be used to guide decisions about the location and design of future protected areas and development, and to prioritize adaptation of existing protected area investments. This paper reviews state-of-the-art coastal impact models that determine sea-level rise vulnerability and provides guidance to help managers and policy makers determine the appropriateness of various models at local, regional, and global scales. There are a variety of models, each with strengths and weaknesses, that are suited for different management objectives. We find important trade-offs exist regarding the cost and capacity needed to run and interpret the models, the range of impacts they cover, and regarding the spatial scale that each operates which may overstate impacts at one end and underestimate impacts at the other. Understanding these differences is critical for managers and policy makers to make informed decisions about which model to use and how to interpret and apply the results.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

Developing an intermediate-complexity projection model for China's fisheries: A case study of small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) in the Haizhou Bay,China

Projection models are commonly used to evaluate the impacts of fishing. However, previously developed projection tools were not suitable for China's fisheries as they are either overly complex and data-demanding or too simple to reflect the realistic management measures. Herein, an intermediate-complexity projection model was developed that could adequately describe fish population dynamics and account for management measures including mesh size limits, summer closure, and spatial closure. A two-patch operating model was outlined for the projection model and applied to the heavily depleted but commercially important small yellow croaker(Larimichthys polyactis) fishery in the Haizhou Bay, China, as a case study. The model was calibrated to realistically capture the fisheries dynamics with hindcasting. Three simulation scenarios featuring different fishing intensities based on status quo and maximum sustainable yield(MSY) were proposed and evaluated with projections. Stochastic projections were additionally performed to investigate the influence of uncertainty associated with recruitment strengths and the implementation of control targets. It was found that fishing at FMSY level could effectively rebuild the depleted stock biomass, while the stock collapsed rapidly in the status quo scenario. Uncertainty in recruitment and implementation could result in variabilities in management effects; but they did not much alter the management effects of the FMSY scenario. These results indicate that the lack of science-based control targets in fishing mortality or catch limits has hindered the achievement of sustainable fisheries in China. Overall, the presented work highlights that the developed projection model can promote the understanding of the possible consequences of fishing under uncertainty and is applicable to other fisheries in China.     

Regional projection of future extreme wave heights around Korean Peninsula

In this study, future changes in regional extreme wave heights around the Korean Peninsula are projected by using the results of an atmosphere general circulation model and a third-generation wave model. The direct use of the model output at each grid point is not appropriate even though high resolution of 20 km is used for the models. Therefore, the model output is grouped into six regions around the Korean Peninsula. The grouping approach is reasonable in assessing climate change effects with alleviated model uncertainty. The extreme wave heights are simulated for two climate periods of 1979–2003 (present climate) and 2075–2099 (future climate). The model results are validated by comparing the simulated wave heights for the present climate with observed and hindcasted wave data. The extreme wave heights for the future climate are then projected for different seasons and in different regions. The 50-year return wave height in summer is projected to increase in most regions, especially in the high-latitude Yellow Sea and the East Sea, while the wave height in winter is projected to decrease in all the regions, especially in the East Sea.     

CMIP5模式对南海SST的模拟和预估

分析了32个CMIP5模式对南海历史海表温度(SST)的模拟能力和不同排放情景下未来SST变化的预估。通过检验各气候模式对南海历史SST增温趋势和均方差的模拟,发现大部分模式都能较好地模拟出南海20世纪历史SST的基本特征和变化规律,但也有部分模式的模拟存在较大偏差。尽管这些模拟偏差较大的模式对SST多模式集合平均的影响不大,但会增加未来情景预估的不确定性。剔除15个模式后,分析了南海SST在RCP26、RCP45和RCP85三种排放情景下的变化趋势,发现在未来百年呈明显的增温趋势,多模式集合平均的增温趋势分别为0.42、1.50和3.30℃/(100a)。这些增温趋势在空间上变化不大,但随时间并不是均匀变化的。在前两种排放情景下,21世纪前期的增温趋势明显强于后期,而在RCP85情景下,21世纪后期的增温趋势强于前期。     

Fifty years of the 137°E repeat hydrographic section in the western North Pacific Ocean

The 137°E repeat hydrographic section of the Japan Meteorological Agency across the western North Pacific was initiated in 1967 as part of the Cooperative Study of the Kuroshio and Adjacent Regions and has been continued biannually in winter and summer. The publicly available data from the section have been widely used to reveal seasonal to decadal variations and long-term changes of currents and water masses, biogeochemical and biological properties, and marine pollutants in relation to climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In commemoration of the 50th anniversary in 2016, this review summarizes the history and scientific achievements of the 137°E section during 1967–2016. Through the publication of more than 100 papers over this 50-year span, with the frequency and significance of the publication increasing in time, the 137°E section has demonstrated its importance for future investigations of physical–biogeochemical–biological interactions on various spatiotemporal scales, and thereby its utility in enhancing process understanding to aid projections of the impact of future climate change on ocean resources and ecosystems over the twenty-first century.     

Food webs and physical–biological coupling on pan-Arctic shelves: Unifying concepts and comprehensive perspectives

Perhaps more than in any other ocean, our understanding of the continental shelves of the Arctic Mediterranean is decidedly disciplinary, regional and fractured, and this shortcoming must be addressed if we are to face and prepare for climate change. A fundamental flaw is that while excellent process studies exist, and while recent ship-based expeditions have added greatly to our collective body of knowledge, an integrated and fully pan-Arctic perspective on the structure and function of food webs on Arctic shelves is lacking. Based on the collective overviews given in Progress in Oceanography xx, xx–xx, we attempt to address this issue. To build a perspective that inter-connects the various shelf regions we suggest three unifying typologies affecting food webs that will hopefully allow inter-comparison of regional investigations. The first is for shelf geography, wherein shelves are classified according to their role in the Arctic throughflow. The second is for ice climate, wherein the various ice regimes are examined for their specific impacts on food web dynamics. The third is for stratification where it is argued that the source of buoyancy, thermal or haline, impacts production and the vertical carbon flux. We then address the connection between physical habitat and biota on pan-Arctic (and global climate) scales. This discussion begins with the recognition that the Arctic Ocean is integral to the World Ocean via its thermohaline (“estuarine”) exchanges with the Atlantic and Pacific. As such the Arctic and its shelves act as a double estuary, wherein incoming waters become both lighter (positive estuary), by mixing with freshwater sources, and heavier (negative estuary) by cooling and brine release. Shelves are central to such transformations. This complex interconnectivity coupling of the Arctic Ocean to its sub-Arctic (and more productive) neighbors demands that food webs be considered through a macroecological view that includes an ecology of advection. We argue that the macroecological view is required if we are to understand and model food webs under forcing along climate gradients. To aid this effort we introduce the concept of contiguous domains, wherein physical habitats are joined by common features that will allow inter-comparisons of existing and future food webs over large scales and climatic gradients. Finally, we speculate on the range of possible futures for Arctic shelves based on the palaeo-record.     

Tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models

Threatening millions of people and causing billions of dollars in losses, tropical cyclones(TCs) are among the most severe natural hazards in the world, especially over the western North Pacific. However, the response of TCs to a warming or changing climate has been the subject of considerable research, often with conflicting results. In this study, the abilities of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) Phase 6(CMIP6) models to simulate TC genesis are assessed through historical simulation...     

Threats to sandy beach ecosystems: A review

We provide a brief synopsis of the unique physical and ecological attributes of sandy beach ecosystems and review the main anthropogenic pressures acting on the world's single largest type of open shoreline. Threats to beaches arise from a range of stressors which span a spectrum of impact scales from localised effects (e.g. trampling) to a truly global reach (e.g. sea-level rise). These pressures act at multiple temporal and spatial scales, translating into ecological impacts that are manifested across several dimensions in time and space so that today almost every beach on every coastline is threatened by human activities. Press disturbances (whatever the impact source involved) are becoming increasingly common, operating on time scales of years to decades. However, long-term data sets that describe either the natural dynamics of beach systems or the human impacts on beaches are scarce and fragmentary. A top priority is to implement long-term field experiments and monitoring programmes that quantify the dynamics of key ecological attributes on sandy beaches. Because of the inertia associated with global climate change and human population growth, no realistic management scenario will alleviate these threats in the short term. The immediate priority is to avoid further development of coastal areas likely to be directly impacted by retreating shorelines. There is also scope for improvement in experimental design to better distinguish natural variability from anthropogenic impacts. Sea-level rise and other effects of global warming are expected to intensify other anthropogenic pressures, and could cause unprecedented ecological impacts. The definition of the relevant scales of analysis, which will vary according to the magnitude of the impact and the organisational level under analysis, and the recognition of a physical–biological coupling at different scales, should be included in approaches to quantify impacts. Zoning strategies and marine reserves, which have not been widely implemented in sandy beaches, could be a key tool for biodiversity conservation and should also facilitate spillover effects into adjacent beach habitats. Setback and zoning strategies need to be enforced through legislation, and all relevant stakeholders should be included in the design, implementation and institutionalisation of these initiatives. New perspectives for rational management of sandy beaches require paradigm shifts, by including not only basic ecosystem principles, but also incentives for effective governance and sharing of management roles between government and local stakeholders.     

Comparative studies reveal variability in the use of tidal stream environments by seabirds

The global increase in tidal stream turbine installations creates a need to identify and mitigate any impacts on seabird populations. Within Scotland, UK, the vulnerability of black guillemots Cepphus grylle and European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis is dependent on their tendency to exploit microhabitats characterised by fast mean horizontal current speeds (≥2 ms^–1), and tidal states with maximum current speeds, within tidal stream environments. Identifying consistencies in their relative use of different microhabitats (fast versus slow mean horizontal current speeds) and tidal states (increasing/decreasing versus maximum currents) across these habitats could assist risk assessment and mitigation measures at both a regional and development site level. Datasets from shore-based surveys collated across 6 tidal stream environments showed that the probability of detecting foraging black guillemots and European shags tended to be higher in fast and slow microhabitats, respectively. However, differences between microhabitats were reversed and/or marginal in 3 out of the 5 sites used for each species. Differences between tidal states were almost always marginal. These variabilities show that a species' vulnerability could differ greatly among development sites, and environmental impact assessments (EIA) must quantify habitat-use using dedicated and site-specific surveys to reduce uncertainty. However, a greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying variation in the use of tidal stream environments is needed when selecting a suite of potential development sites that reduce the possibility of population-level impacts. The current collection of physical and biological data across tidal stream environments could therefore prove invaluable for the protection of seabird populations.     

Space and time variability of uncertainty in morphodynamic simulations

The uncertainty associated with simulations of process-based coastal area morphodynamic models is assessed through numerical experimentation. Appropriate metrics of uncertainty are defined based on the standard deviation of the model results at each location and each time step. Uncertainty is examined using a set of realistic one year morphodynamic simulations of the evolution of a highly dynamic tidal inlet. Results indicate that uncertainty increases linearly with time, and suggest that its rate grows with increasing sediment fluxes. Hence, the limits of predictability of morphodynamic model applications are higher for slowly varying systems. Attempts to reduce uncertainty by aggregating model results at larger spatial scales met with limited success. Ensemble simulations are suggested as a possible avenue to investigate the long-term evolution of tidal inlets using process-based models.     

Developments in ocean climate modelling

This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms.     

Simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations of the zonal wind in the equatorial stratosphere: Part I. Low-parameter models

The paper focuses on the simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) of zonal velocity in the equatorial stratosphere. Low-parameter models are used to examine two mechanisms for excitation of the QBO: one through the interaction of planetary waves with the mean flow at critical levels and another through gravity-wave obliteration. The possible use of each of these mechanisms for generating the QBO is shown, the ranges of parameter values where this generation is possible are determined, and the dependences of the period and amplitude of the limit cycle on the model parameters are analyzed. A relative role of waves of different scales in the formation of the period of the oscillations of zonal wind is studied with a coupled model combining both mechanisms. The conditions that are required to reproduce the QBO in general circulation models are discussed.     

Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods

There is increasing concern over the consequences of global warming for the food security and livelihoods of the world's 36 million fisherfolk and the nearly 1.5 billion consumers who rely on fish for more than 20% of their dietary animal protein. With mounting evidence of the impacts of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, the resulting impacts on fisheries livelihoods are likely to be significant, but remain a neglected area in climate adaptation policy. Drawing upon our research and the available literature, and using a livelihoods framework, this paper synthesizes the pathways through which climate variability and change impact fisherfolk livelihoods at the household and community level. We identify current and potential adaptation strategies and explore the wider implications for local livelihoods, fisheries management and climate policies. Responses to climate change can be anticipatory or reactive and should include: (1) management approaches and policies that build the livelihood asset base, reducing vulnerability to multiple stressors, including climate change; (2) an understanding of current response mechanisms to climate variability and other shocks in order to inform planned adaptation; (3) a recognition of the opportunities that climate change could bring to the sector; (4) adaptive strategies designed with a multi-sector perspective; and (5) a recognition of fisheries potential contribution to mitigation efforts.