评新书《现代气候统计诊断与预测技术》

我国气候统计的研究始于涂长望等著名学者,１９６３年出版了么枕生教授的“气候统计”,它是世界上第一本系统叙述气候诊断和分析的专著,１９９０年进行了补充修订．虽然,在我国已出版了十余本关于统计气象的书籍,但专门论述气候统计诊断和预测的,应首推最近出版的《现代气候统计诊断与预测技术》（魏风英编著,气象出版社,１９９９,ｐｐ２６９）．气候可以认为是大气许多不同状态总体的一个统计集合,可用这个集合的统计量（均值、标准差）来表示气候．这意味着,与研究天气不同,研究气候自然而然地要以概率论和数理统计作为数学工…     

中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。     

《数值天气和气候预测》

<正>该书论述了天气和气候预测,讲述了大气模式的使用及其优点、缺陷和最佳实践,书中描述了不同的数值方法、资料同化、集合方法、可预报性、陆面模拟、气候模拟和降尺度、计算流体动力模式、基于模式研究的试验设计、检验方法、业务预报,以及空气质量模式和洪水预报等专业应用。该书基于     

东北冷涡研究概述

简述了东北冷涡的形势特征、气候特征、天气特征与强对流特征;回顾、综述了东北冷涡形成、发展、维持、消退期的研究成果,特别是东北冷涡强对流特征的研究进展;讨论了东北冷涡强降水、强天气等预报业务的难点及其研究方面存在的问题。认为：需要依靠现代雷达、卫星等观测设备和数值模拟手段,加强东北冷涡暴雨及强天气机制研究,提高东北冷涡天气的预报水平。     

新书介绍

现代气候学研究会进展本书全面分析分析了近 20年来气候学研究的前沿进展，涵盖了气候诊断、气候模拟及气候预测等内容。全书分三篇 21章，第一篇介绍气候系统与气候变率，第二章介绍 ENSO系统与短期气候预测，第三章介绍十年到百年气候变率与长期气候预测。 本书内容新颖，深入浅出，可读性强，是大气科学领域的专业参考书，也可供地球科学其它领域的科研人员参考。 本书由气象出版社出版， 46万字，定价 29.00元。 草业恢复与沙漠化防治 2000年入春以来，我国西北、华北地区连续发生了 12次扬沙、沙尘暴天气，恶劣天气发生之早、频率之…     

人工智能技术气候预测应用简介

近年来,随着人工智能技术在多个领域大数据分析中的应用,许多研究工作者尝试将地学研究与人工智能跨学科结合,取得了很多新的进展,推动了地球科学的发展。其中气候预测与人类生活以及防灾减灾等息息相关,准确的气候预测至关重要。本文简要总结了人工智能技术在气候预测应用方面的研究进展,包括资料同化、模式参数化、求解偏微分方程、构建统计预测模型、改进数值模式产品释用等领域。这些研究证明了利用人工智能提高气候预测技巧的可能性和适用性,可以极大地节省计算成本和时间。然而人工智能应用也存在诸多挑战,例如数据集的构建、模型的适用性和物理可解释性等问题,对这些难点问题的研究和攻克,可以让人工智能在大数据时代中更好地补充传统地球科学方法,产生更多有益的效应,极大地改进气候预测水平。     

2006年春季沙尘天气异常的气候背景分析及趋势预测检验

作者概述了2006年春季我国北方地区沙尘天气异常的观测特征.与2000～2005年同期相比,2006年春季,我国北方地区沙尘天气过程相对频繁,强度偏强.首先,利用NCEP再分析资料及台站观测资料,对可能影响2006年春季我国沙尘天气异常的气候背景进行了分析,结果表明:2006年春季北方地区冷空气势力较常年强,冷空气活动较频繁,这是造成2006年春季我国沙尘天气多于前几年的动力原因.此外,春季我国西北及内蒙古的沙源地区降水偏少,干旱少雨,加之春季气温偏高,在一定程度上也有利于沙尘天气的形成.利用IAP 年度数值气候预测系统对2006、2007年春季我国沙尘天气趋势的气候背景进行了预测,检验了系统对2006年沙尘趋势的预测能力,并对2007年春季沙尘天气趋势进行了展望.结果表明:预测系统较好地预测出2006年我国北方地区春季降水偏少、土壤偏干的状况,但对风场的预测与实况有一定的差距,由预测的气候距平结果推断2006年春季我国北方沙尘次数正常略偏少,与实况相反;对2007年春季的预测结果表明,2007年春季我国北方,特别是西北及内蒙古沙源地区土壤湿度偏湿,冷空气活动势力偏弱,不利于沙尘天气的形成,由此预测2007年春季我国北方沙尘趋势与常年相比略偏弱.     

短期天气预报与短期气候预测发展道路的对比思索

本文简短地比较了100a来短期天气预报和短期气候预测的发展道路。指出短期天气预报在经历了天气图阶段、长波阶段和数值预报阶段三大步之后已经发展到了相当成熟的地步。而短期气候预测100a来在“气候是天气的综合”错误思想的指导下,虽然也经历了与短期天气预报相应的几个阶段：大型天气学阶段、超长波阶段和短期气候预测的数值模式阶段,但每个阶段都以失败(或即将失败)而告终。使得短期气候预测水平始终在原地踏步。30a前提出了“气候系统”的概念,这是气候学的一次真正的进步。但“气候系统”至今仍是一个抽象概念,不像“天气系统”指的是气旋(低压)、反气旋(高压)、锋面等具体的物质系统。一旦“气候系统”被人们公认为一些具体的物质系统之后。短期气候预测即可成为“气候系统变化的预测”,此时短期气候预测通向成功的第一步——气候预测的“挪威学派”就诞生了。与天气图相应的,描述气候系统变化的一种四维图象也会应运而生。作者认为此图象很可能是“地气图”,而具体的气候系统很可能就是地热涡、地冷涡和形变锋等。     

大气MJO研究的几个前沿问题

就MJO研究的几个前沿问题进行简要归纳分析,主要包括:MJO对流的形成机制;MJO与ENSO的相互作用;MJO对天气气候的影响;MJO的数值模拟和预报等。在论述中更多地给出了中国学者的研究工作及其主要结果。在MJO的影响方面主要论及其对西太平洋台风、亚洲季风和中国东部降水的影响,目的在于能对中国的相关研究及其预报应用有所帮助。     

中央气象台暴雨预报业务的发展及思考

暴雨是影响我们国家最重要的灾害性天气之一,暴雨预报既是业务中的关键点也是难点。本文论述了目前中央气象台的暴雨预报业务已经由基于天气学、统计学等在天气图分析的基础上进行主观外推的传统预报向基于数值预报的现代天气预报发展,强调了暴雨预报的科学问题是从预报实践中提炼出来的,而不是从参考文献中找出来的,突出了预报员是暴雨科学问题的提出者和解决实际问题的第一参与者,阐明了预报与服务工作紧密结合是中国特色气象事业的重要组成部分,充分肯定了中央气象台和中国气象局暴雨研究所等科研单位在暴雨预报、研究和我国应对突发自然灾害中发挥的重要作用,明确了暴雨等灾害天气的预报是以服务人民、社会、经济发展和国家安全为最终目标。并从预报员科学研究与实践能力的培养和提高、多源观测资料应用、区域中尺度数值预报模式和集合预报技术的发展及订正能力的提高、人工智能技术的应用等几个方面对如何提高暴雨预报准确率提出一些思考。     

自然控制论

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气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题探讨

年代际的全球变化预测及其区域适应 ,是一个属于自然科学和社会科学相互交叉领域的问题。作者将全球气候变化研究与经济学研究结合起来进行探索性思考 ,提出了气候变化与人类经济活动相互关系的研究领域中 4个有待探讨的问题 ,并重点针对其中气候变化对我国农业的影响 ,及气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题进行了探讨 ,同时初步讨论了经济评估的验证问题。     

Progress and Challenge of the Short-Term Climate Prediction

The experience of developing a short-term climate prediction system at the Institute of Atmospheric Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences is summarized,and some problems to be solved in future are discussed in this paper.It is suggested that a good system for short-term climate prediction should at least consist of (1) well-tested model(s),(2) sufficient data and good methods for the initialization and assimilation,(3) a good system for quantitative corrections,(4) a good ensemble prediction method,and (5) appropriate prediction products,such as mathematical expectation,standard deviation,probability,among others.     

气候动力学与气候预测理论的研究

主要概述了中国科学院大气物理研究所近些年来在气候动力学与气候预测理论研究领域的若干重要研究进展.通过对气候系统变化多尺度特征及其动力学的分析和研究,提出了一系列气候系统动力学理论,并在此基础上提出了适合于我国季风气候特点的气候预测理论和方法,在国际上率先开展了跨季度数值气候预测,进一步建立了先进、完善的短期数值气候预测系统,并应用于我国夏季旱涝预测业务.这些工作既带有极大的基础性意义,同时也具有巨大的应用价值,为我国大气科学及气候科学乃至环境科学的研究提供了重要工具.     

Some Results of Studies in the Area of Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate Theory in Siberia

The results of studies in the area ofnumerical weather prediction and climate theory are presented. These results were obtained by the team of researchers of the Siberian school of mathematical modeling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics established by academician G.I. Marchuk. Academician V.P. Dymnikov played an enormous role in the development of this school by enriching it with new approaches and ideas. His contribution to the Siberian school of mathematical modeling was most strongly pronounced concerning three problems: numerical weather prediction for the Siberian region, the modeling of the climate system dynamics, and the mathematics and theory of climate.     

Signatures of a universal spectrum for atmospheric interannual variability in some disparate climatic regimes

Summary Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-tie scales ranging from turbulence (centimetersseconds) to climate (kilometers-years). Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures ofself-organized criticality. Standard models in meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality in atmospheric flows. Mathematical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are nonlinear and do not possess analytical solutions. Finite precision computer realizations of nonlinear models give unrealistic solutions because ofdeterministic chaos, a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative numerical computations. Recent studies show that roundoff error doubles on an average for each iteration of iterative computations. Round-off error propagates to the main stream computation and gives unrealistic solutions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models which incorporate thousands of iterative computations in long-term numerical integration schemes. An alternative non-deterministic cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows described in this paper predicts the observed self-organized criticality as intrinsic to quantumlike mechanics governing flow dynamics. The model provides universal quantification for self-organized criticality in terms of the statistical normal distribution. Model predictions are in agreement with a majority of observed spectra of time series of several standard climatological data sets representative of disparate climatic regimes. Universal spectrum for natural climate variability rules out linear trends. Man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming will result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change.With 11 Figures     

A New Strategy for Solving a Class of Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems Related to Weather and Climate Predictability

There are three common types of predictability problems in weather and climate, which each involve different constrained nonlinear optimization problems: the lower bound of maximum predictable time, the upper bound of maximum prediction error, and the lower bound of maximum allowable initial error and parameter error. Highly efficient algorithms have been developed to solve the second optimization problem. And this optimization problem can be used in realistic models for weather and climate to study the upper bound of the maximum prediction error. Although a filtering strategy has been adopted to solve the other two problems, direct solutions are very time-consuming even for a very simple model, which therefore limits the applicability of these two predictability problems in realistic models. In this paper, a new strategy is designed to solve these problems, involving the use of the existing highly efficient algorithms for the second predictability problem in particular. Furthermore, a series of comparisons between the older filtering strategy and the new method are performed. It is demonstrated that the new strategy not only outputs the same results as the old one, but is also more computationally efficient. This would suggest that it is possible to study the predictability problems associated with these two nonlinear optimization problems in realistic forecast models of weather or climate.     

Bridging science and community knowledge? The complicating role of natural variability in perceptions of climate change

Although the spatial and temporal scales on which climate varies is a prominent aspect of climate research in the natural sciences, its treatment in the social sciences remains relatively underdeveloped. The result is limited understanding of the public's capacity to perceive climate variability as distinct from change, and uncertainty surrounding how and when to best communicate information on variability/change. Ignoring variability in favour of change-focused analyses and language risks significant misrepresentation of public perception and knowledge, and precludes detailed synthesis of data from the social and natural sciences. An example is presented based on a regional comparison of variability-dominated climate observations and change-focused survey data, collected in western Newfoundland (Canada). This region experiences pronounced, slow-varying natural variability, which acted to obscure broader climate trends through the 1980s and 1990s; since the late 1990s, the same variability has amplified apparent change. While survey results confirm residents perceive regional climate change, it is not clear whether respondents distinguish variability from change. This presents uncertainty in the best approach to climate science communication in this region, and raises concern that subsequent variability-driven transient cooling will erode public support for climate action. Parallels are drawn between these regional concerns and similar uncertainty surrounding treatment of variability in discussion of global temperature trends, highlighting variability perception as a significant gap in human dimensions of climate change research.     

An annotated bibliography on the greenhouse effect and climate change

The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly inter-disciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases. The areas covered include theory and numerical modelling of climate change; cycles involving carbon dioxide and other radiatively important trace gases; observations of climate change and the problems associated with those observations; paleoclimatology as it relates to previous changes in the greenhouse gases; the impacts on and interactions with managed and natural ecosystems from climate change; policy issues related to climate change and to the limitation of climate change; history of the study of the greenhouse effect; and some other causes of climate change. Selection of papers has been made to facilitate rapid introduction to most of the important issues and findings in an area. Over 600 articles, reports, and books are discussed.     

一个可供现代数学分析研究的气候动力学模型

针对以往大气动力学方程和气候动力学方程数学研究所使用模式的不足之处,本文作了改进,使数学模型更接近于实际情况。这些包括,（1）取大气上界气压为零,而非某个正的（小）常数;（2）消除了整层无辐散近似,从而使地面气压为直接的预报量,但在地面气压预报方程中加入了水平湍流扩散项（平滑）;（3）对大气运动的内热源的辐射传输过程和水汽相变过程作了合理的处理,而非看作已知的外强迫,用适当的方法可以用解析函数较好地逼近这些过程。另外还提出合理的边界条件。我们的目的是要证明这样提出的初—边值问题的解的存在性,以后还可研究其基本性质和长期行为。