气候变化的影响归因：来自IPCC AR6 WGⅡ的新认知

归因(Attribution)包括气候变化归因(Climate change attribution)、影响归因(Impact attribution)和天气敏感性识别(Identification of weather sensitivity)等三个方面。IPCC第六次评估报告第二工作组报告(AR6 WGⅡ)沿用了第五次评估报告第二工作组报告(AR5 WGⅡ)中关于气候变化影响归因的定义,认为气候变化影响归因评估气候系统变化对观测到的自然、人类或受管理系统变化的贡献程度。IPCC AR6 WGⅡ提出了在影响归因中构建“无气候变化基准期”(no-climate change baseline)的基本研究思路,总结了气候变化对陆地生态系统、海洋生态系统、海岸系统、水系统、食物系统、人类社会影响归因研究的重要进展。相比于AR5 WGⅡ,AR6 WGⅡ更加具体地描述了气候变化对自然、人类或受管理系统的影响程度,部分评估结论的信度也得到了提升,且在气候变化的社会影响方面给出了更多的证据。尽管气候变化影响归因方面取得了一定进展,但AR6 WGⅡ指出仍需要更多高质量的数据、更有效的气候变化影响量化方法、更全面的系统变化机制理解来深化气候变化影响归因研究。     

对IPCC第五次评估报告检测归因结论的解读

<正>气候变化的检测归因是识别人为和自然因子对气候变化相对贡献的核心研究内容,也是迄今没有很好解决的科学问题之一。学术界对于检测和归因的概念有严谨的阐述~([1])。气候变化的检测,是在某种统计意义的定义下揭示气候或被气候影响的系统已发生变化的过程,但并不解释这种变化的原因。归因是在给定的统计信度上评估多个因素对某一变化或者事件相对贡献的过程,是结合统计分析和物理解析的过程。这些因素包括人为强迫(如工业排放导致的大气温室气体浓度增加和气溶胶变化、大规模土地利用)和自然强迫(如火山活动、太阳变率)。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)自发布第     

Interpretation of IPCC AR6 on buildings北大核心CSCD

IPCC于2022年4月正式发布了第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》,该报告以已发布的第一和第二工作组报告作为基础,评估了各领域减缓气候变化的进展。报告的第九章建筑章节系统全面地评估了全球建筑领域的温室气体排放现状、趋势和驱动因素,综述并评估了建筑减缓气候变化的措施、潜力、成本和政策。报告主要结论认为,全球建筑领域有可能在2050年实现温室气体净零排放,但如果政策措施执行不力,将有可能在建筑领域形成长达几十年的高碳锁定效应。报告的主要结论将成为全球建筑领域应对气候变化行动的重要参考,对于我国建筑领域实现碳达峰、碳中和目标也有非常重要的借鉴意义。     

编辑选编

<正>IPCC第五次评估报告WGII专栏——《气候变化研究进展》第10卷第3期IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组报告参考12000多篇科学文献,科学评估气候变化对自然和人类系统的影响,归纳气候变化对自然和人类系统造成的关键风险,人类社会应主动适应气候变化,增强自然系统和人类社会恢复能力。《气候变化研究进展》针对此报告刊载了     

新书架

淮河流域气候变化影响评估报告田红等主编该书共分八章,在阐述淮河流域气候变化事实的基础上,分析气候变化对流域水资源、旱涝灾害、农业、自然生态系统、能源、人体健康、旅游等方面的影响,并因地制宜地提出适应与减缓对策,为全球气候变化背景下淮河流域社会经济的可持续发展提供理论依据和科技支撑。该书是我国关于流域气候变化研究系列评估报告中的一本。该书可供中央各部委和流域机构以及地方政府决策参考,亦可作为气候、气象、水文水资源、生态与环境、社会经济等领域的科研人员和有关大专院校师生的参考书目。16开定价:48.00元     

气候变化2007:气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性——IPCC第2工作组第4次评估报告主要结论介绍

阐述了政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第2工作组第四次评估中与决策相关的重要发现。本次评估体现了当前关于气候变化对自然、管理和人类系统的影响、这些系统的适应能力及脆弱性方面的科学认识。该评估基于此前IPCC的评估,并吸收了第3次评估以来的新认识。评估报告认为:从所有大陆和多数海洋得到的观测证据表明,许多自然系统正在受到区域气候变化,特别是温度升高的影响;人为增暖可能已对许多自然和生物系统产生可辨别的影响;气候变化对自然和人类环境所造成的其他影响清晰可辨。当前关于未来气候变化影响的认识,可以更详细地评估未来气候对各类系统和部门,以及对世界各大区域的影响,也可以对全球升温的影响进行估算,预估极端天气气候所带来的影响。必须采取更广泛的适应措施以应对气候变化所造成的影响,可持续发展能够降低对气候变化的脆弱性,兼顾适应和减缓的措施,能够减低气候变化相关风险。     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》

正《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》

正《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》

正《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信     

欢迎投稿和订阅《气候变化研究进展》

正《气候变化研究进展》(双月刊)是由中国气象局国家气候中心主办的气候变化领域内由自然科学和社会科学相结合的综合性学术刊物。本刊致力于促进气候变化学科发展,并推动其研究成果在社会和经济可持续发展,适应和减缓气候变化措施制定,气候政策与环境外交谈判,生态与环境改善,气候资源保护、开发和高效利用等方面的应用。《气候变化研究进展》主要发表国内外气候变化研究的最新成果与进展,以及与气候变化有关的交叉学科,如地球科学、生态与环境科学、人文与社会科学等方面的最新研究论文;报道全球变化最新的观测事实、重要信     

A “precariously unprepared” Pentagon? Climate security beliefs and decision-making in the U.S. military

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change poses direct and indirect threats to national and human security. However, the degree to which such knowledge of the risks informs decision-making remains poorly understood for key security communities, including the U.S. Department of Defense. Here, through document analysis and interviews with climate security researchers and practitioners from the U.S. military community, we evaluate perceptions about and the degree to which (i) these individuals believe climate change is a threat to U.S. national security interests, and (ii) the U.S. Department of Defense integrates climate security science into its decision-making. Our research suggests a complex answer. Public statements and reports indicate U.S. Department of Defense leadership considers climate change a security threat of strategic importance, and most researchers interviewed believe the U.S. Department of Defense prioritizes climate security as a near-term threat. However, evidence of climate security threats is only selectively integrated into planning and decision-making. Interviews suggest several barriers and enablers to evidence-based decision-making within the U.S. Department of Defense. Barriers include mixed beliefs in the near-term urgency of the threat, changing political environments, and insufficient co-production of actionable science across the levels of war, including issues of data collection, sharing, and analysis. Enablers include increased awareness after climate-related impacts, strong leadership support, and knowledge transfer and convening forums. Improved insight into the production and use of climate security knowledge is crucial for the task of safeguarding human and national security in a changing climate.     

美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评

近年来,美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究成果频出。在概述其研究现状及主要成果的基础上,分析了美国在该领域研究的特点及其对我国开展相关研究的启示。美国关于气候变化影响国家安全的研究成果主要体现在围绕气候变化影响美国国家安全的方式、范围、程度以及美国的应对之策等几个方面展开了全面而深入的讨论。其突出特色是：第一,在研究理论和方法方面,与时俱进,转型较快;第二,在研究内容方面,既视野开阔,又有较强的针对性;第三,在研究水平上呈现逐步提高的趋势;第四,在研究体制上,形成官、学、研三位一体的联合研究体制。当前,我国的相关研究还处在起步阶段,在未来的研究中可以借鉴美国的一些有益经验。     

Does socioeconomic status moderate the political divide on climate change? The roles of education,income, and individualism

Previous research documents that U.S. conservatives, and conservative white males in particular, tend to dismiss the threat of climate change more than others in the U.S. public. Other research indicates that higher education and income can each exacerbate the dismissive tendencies of the political Right. Bridging these lines of research, the present study examines the extent to which higher education and/or income moderate the ideological divide and the “conservative white male effect” on several climate change opinions, and whether these effects are mediated by an individualistic worldview (e.g., valuing individual liberty and limited government). Using nationally representative survey data of U.S. adults from 2008 to 2017 (N = 20,024), we find that across all beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy preferences examined, the ideological divide strengthens with both higher education and higher income. However, educational attainment plays a stronger role than income in polarizing the views of conservative white males. Further analyses support the hypothesis that differences in individualism partially explain the increased political polarization among more educated and higher-income adults, as well as greater dismissiveness among conservative white males relative to other demographic groups. These results highlight key moderators of opinion polarization, as well as ideological differences among conservatives, that are often overlooked in public discourse about climate change. Implications for climate change education and communication across demographic groups are considered.     

The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S.

One strand of research relates the magnitude of severe weather disasters to climatic and human development factors; another highlights dramatic growth in catastrophe losses. However, there have been few attempts to put the two strands together. Here we use an explicit modeling framework to determine the contribution of climate variability relative to human factors in reported catastrophe losses. We then examine how future climate change can be expected to affect losses from natural disasters. Simultaneous regression models are constructed from three equations in which the dependent variables are U.S. flood loss, U.S. hurricane loss and U.S. catastrophe loss. Then two kinds of simulation under two climate change scenarios explore how climate change would affect losses. The climate change scenarios respectively project 13.5% and 21.5% increases in annual precipitation. The first simulation increases only the mean value of annual precipitation; the second simulation assumes that the mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation change in the same proportion. Results show that the growth in reported losses from weather-related natural disasters is due mainly to three socioeconomic factors: inflation, population growth and growth in per capita real wealth. However, weather variables such as precipitation and the number of hurricanes per period also clearly affect losses. The three stage least squares (3SLS) simultaneous equation model shows that a 1% increase in annual precipitation would enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. These findings are suggestive as planning signals to decision makers.     

Who has become more open to nuclear power because of climate change?

Even in the face of the March 2011 accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, nuclear power is being promoted in the U.S. as a necessary response to global climate change. Conducted prior to the Fukushima accident, the present study used a nation-wide telephone survey of 2751 U.S. residents to assess the factors that influence whether a person has become more open to nuclear power because of global climate change rather than supportive or opposed to nuclear power. Results showed that belief that climate change is a risk and is human-caused, belief that nuclear energy contributes to climate change, environmental support, cultural worldviews, and selected socio-demographics consistently predicted openness to nuclear power because of climate change. Implications of the current results and avenues for additional research on this topic are discussed.     

美国全球变化研究现状

美国的全球变化研究主要由美国全球变化研究计划（ＵＳＧＣＲＰ）支持,重点资助季节—年际尺度气候变率,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,土地利用以及陆地、海洋生态系统的变化等４个领域。当前,水汽与云仍是全球变化研究中不确定性较大的一个方面,因而受到关注。关于气候变化的信号检测以及成因分析也是一个研究热点。气候模拟研究是全球变化研究的一个主要方法。卫星资料在全球变化研究中的应用取得了大量成果。近期美国在全球变化研究领域的重点是气候模拟,短期气候预测,十年—百年尺度的气候变化,臭氧、ＵＶ辐射以及大气化学的变化,地表以及陆地、海洋生态系统变化,对全球变化的区域尺度估计,卫星资料的应用,气候变化影响的国家级评估等８个方面。     

Farm programs and climate change

The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision making: we then use this framework to assess how specific U.S. farm programs might affect adaption to climate change. Three future climate scenarios are considered and in each the present structure of U.S. farm programs discourages adaptation.     

“Reporting on climate change: A computational analysis of U.S. newspapers and sources of bias, 1997–2017”

News organizations constitute key sites of science communication between experts and lay audiences, giving many individuals their basic worldview of complex topics like climate change. Previous researchers have studied climate change news coverage to assess accuracy in reporting and potential sources of bias. These studies typically rely on manually coding articles from a handful of prestigious outlets, not allowing comparisons with smaller newspapers or providing enough diversity to assess the influence of partisan orientation or localized climate vulnerability on content production. Making these comparisons, this study indicates that partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and vulnerability to climate change correlate with several topics present in U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change. After assembling a corpus of over 78,000 articles covering two decades from 52 U.S. newspapers that are diverse in terms of geography, partisan orientation, scale of circulation, and objectively measured climate risk, a coherent set of latent topics were identified via an automated content analysis of climate change news coverage. Topic model results indicate that while outlet bias does not appear to impact the prevalence of coverage for most topics surrounding climate change, differences were evident for some topics based on partisan orientation, scale, or vulnerability status, particularly those relating to climate change denial, impacts, mitigation, or resource use. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive study of U.S. newspaper coverage of climate change and identifies specific topics where outlet bias constitutes an important contextual factor.     

Climate change and agriculture: A perspective on priorities for economic policy

Research on the effects of climate change on U.S. agriculture and world grain markets suggests that adaptation will occur with relatively small effects on total production. Additional research shows that reducing emission of greenhouse gases from U.S. agricultural production is relatively expensive compared to encouraging reforestation as an offset to emissions of carbon dioxide. Nevertheless, continued population growth and the increasing inequality of income across countries are likely to exacerbate the adverse effects of climate change. Concepts of sustainability should be expanded to cover industrial as well as agricultural production, and promote the efficient use of fossil fuels in general. Dealing with climate change effectively will require international cooperation and a willingness to address population growth and the divergence of incomes between rich and poor countries.