DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

Large changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation have occurred over the past two decades over the ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere, and these changes have had a profound effect on regional distributions of surface temperature and precipitation. The changes over the North Pacific have been well documented and have contributed to increases in temperatures across Alaska and much of western North America and to decreases in sea surface temperatures over the central North Pacific. The variations over the North Atlantic are related to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the past 130 years, the NAO has exhibited considerable variability at quasi-biennial and quasi-decadal time scales, and the latter have become especially pronounced the second half of this century. Since 1980, the NAO has tended to remain in one extreme phase and has accounted for a substantial part of the observed wintertime surface warming over Europe and downstream over Eurasia and cooling in the northwest Atlantic. Anomalies in precipitation, including dry wintertime conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and wetter-than-normal conditions over northern Europe and Scandinavia since 1980, are also linked to the behavior of the NAO. Changes in the monthly mean flow over the Atlantic are accompanied by a northward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity, and these changes help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous mean circulation in the upper troposphere. It is important that studies of trends in local climate records, such as those from high elevation sites, recognize the presence of strong regional patterns of change associated with phenomena like the NAO.     

High frequency variability in recent climate and the north atlantic oscillation

Summary ?High-frequency temperature variability was investigated in the temperature time series measured at Prague-Sporilov (Czech Republic) between 1994–2001. The calculations were performed for time series of surface air temperature averaged for 6-hour intervals. Variability was detected by the method of absolute difference of temperature anomalies between two adjacent discrete time periods. The results indicated a frequency dependence of variability. For 24-hour intervals the variability exhibits an irregular character and decreases with time in the eight-year observation period. Variability time series calculated for the 6-hour intervals did not reveal any significant trend, however, apparent quasi-seasonal oscillations exist. A significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) activity and temperature variability can be observed. Higher NAO-index values at all frequencies tend to be associated with higher variability. Received February 28, 2002; revised March 25, 2002; accepted July 18, 2002     

Precipitation fluctuations during the winter season from 1960 to 1995 over Emilia-Romagna, Italy

Summary ?The variability of the winter mean precipitation observed at 40 rainfall stations in Emilia-Romagna (a region in northern Italy) from 1960 to 1995 is examined. The results are compared with those obtained for the whole of Italy using records from 32 stations. Temporal variability of the time series is investigated by means of Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, in order to estimate the presence of trends and “change points”. Before analysis the original precipitation data set have been tested to detect the inhomogeneity points, using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT). Almost all stations situated in Emilia Romagna exhibit a significant decreasing trend in winter precipitation during the 1960–1995 period. The same characteristics are revealed, more significant in the northern and central part of the region, when the stations for all Italy are analysed. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected through the Pettitt test in Emilia Romagna, around 1980 at some stations, while the rest of the stations reveal the shift point occurrence around 1985. A significant downward shift in the winter precipitation is detected around 1985, when analysing the time series for all Italy. Spatial variability of winter precipitation is studied using the Empirical Orthogonal Function. The first pattern indicates that a common large-scale process could be responsible for the winter precipitation variability. The second EOF pattern shows an opposite sign of climate variability, which highlights the influence of relief on the precipitation regime. The time series associated with the first precipitation pattern (PC1) at both scales emphasises a significant decreasing trend and a downward shift point around 1985. The internal structure analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during the 1960–1995 period reveals a significant increasing trend and an upward shift around 1980. Strong correlation is also detected between PC1 (Emilia Romagna and at the scale of all Italy) and the NAO index. Thus, the changes detected in the winter precipitation around 1985 could be due to an intensification of the positive phase of the [NAO], especially after 1980. Received March 23, 2001; revised February 20, 2002; accepted March 3, 2002     

Competition of NAO regime changes and increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols with respect to Arctic climate projections

Regional magnitudes and patterns of Arctic winter climate changes in consequence of regime changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using a regional atmospheric climate model. The regional model has been driven with data of positive and negative NAO phases from a control simulation as well as from a time-dependent greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario simulation. Both global model simulations include a quite realistic interannual variability of the NAO with pronounced decadal regime changes and no or rather weak long-term NAO trends. The results indicate that the effects of NAO regime changes on Arctic winter temperatures and precipitation are regionally significant over most of northwestern Eurasia and parts of Greenland. In this regard, mean winter temperature variations of up to 6 K may occur over northern Europe. Precipitation and synoptic variability are also regionally modified by NAO regime changes, but not as significantly as temperatures. However, the climate changes associated with the NAO are in some regions clearly stronger than those attributed to enhanced greenhouse gases and aerosols, indicating that projected global changes of the atmospheric composition and internal circulation changes are competing with each other in their importance for the Arctic climate evolution in the near future. The knowledge of the future NAO trend on decadal and longer time scales appears to be vitally important in terms of a regional assessment of climate scenarios for the Arctic.     

Analysis of rainfall variability over Tanzania in late austral summer

利用站点观测资料和再分析资料,采用相关分析,Morlet小波功率谱分析和复合分析等方法,研究了 1961-2011年南半球夏季后期(1-3月)坦桑尼亚降水的年际变化特征,并探讨了相关的大气环流和海温异常情况,以及坦桑尼亚干,湿年发生的机制.研究结果表明:坦桑尼亚1-3月降水变化存在显著的2-8年的年际变化周期和8-12年准年代变化周期.在坦桑尼亚1-3月降水异常偏少的典型干旱年,来自热带西印度的异常反气旋的东北气流和北印度洋东南气流造成干燥空气下沉,从而抑制坦桑尼亚地区降水;而在典型多雨年,来自非洲大陆热带和东南大西洋的异常西风气流在刚果盆地上空显著偏强,从而带来更多降水.热带印度洋和印度洋东南部,大西洋东南部和热带大西洋均表现出显著的相关性.此外,热带中太平洋和南太平洋中部也存在显著的相关.这些海温异常型与坦桑尼亚1-3月的降水及相关大气环流异常有密切的关联.     

Large-scale variability modes of freshwater flux and precipitation over the Atlantic

 Precipitation (P) and freshwater (E-P) fluxes at the air-sea interface are investigated in the Atlantic Ocean sector using the reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A canonical correlation analysis method between these fields and sea level pressure (SLP) is used to identify patterns. We also test whether precipitation and freshwater fluxes can be reconstructed from SLP data. In the winter months, patterns associated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) mode are identified. The signals are strong enough to be reconstructed from the reanalysis fields, and they correspond to a significant part of the variability. The NAO signal is more robust than the EA one. The NAO-related variability mode is also present when the monthly precipitation rate is averaged for the winter season and even for annual averages. However, in the later case, other variability of natural origin (for instance, ENSO variability) or noise from the model and assimilation system prevents the reconstruction of E-P associated with NAO from SLP variability. Difficulties are identified in the tropical Atlantic with a different behaviour of NCEP and ERA precipitation variability, especially near the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ERA patterns suggest a NAO signature in the tropical Atlantic which has clear monthly patterns and indicates a link between the phase of NAO and changes in the position and intensity of ITCZ. However, the analysis of winter rainfall based on satellite and in situ data does not support the monthly tropical pattern of ERA precipitation although it suggests a relation between convection near 15°S and NAO during northern winter. Received: 10 February 2000 / Accepted: 7 May 2001     

Interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic from an ocean data assimilation system

An ocean analysis, assimilating both surface and subsurface hydrographic temperature data into a global ocean model, has been produced for the period 1958–2000, and used to study the time and space variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (HC). Observational evidence is presented for interannual-to-decadal variability of upper ocean thermal fluctuations in the North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability over the last 40 years. The assimilation scheme used in the ocean analysis is a univariate, variational optimum interpolation of temperature. The first guess is produced by an eddy permitting global ocean general circulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The validation of the ocean analysis has been done through the comparison with objectively analyzed observations and independent data sets. The method is able to compensate for the model systematic error to reproduce a realistic vertical thermal structure of the region and to improve consistently the model estimation of the time variability of the upper ocean temperature. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that an important mode of variability of the wintertime upper ocean climate over the North Atlantic during the period of study is characterized by a tripole pattern both for SST and upper ocean HC. A similar mode is found for summer HC anomalies but not for summer SST. Over the whole period, HC variations in the subtropics show a general warming trend while the tropical and north eastern part of the basin have an opposite cooling tendency. Superimposed on this linear trend, the HC variability explained by the first EOF both in winter and summer conditions reveals quasi-decadal oscillations correlated with changes in the NAO index. On the other hand, there is no evidence of correlation in time between the NAO index and the upper ocean HC averaged over the whole North Atlantic which exhibits a substantial and monotonic warming trend during the last two decades of the analysis period. The maximum correlation is found between the leading principal component of winter HC anomalies and NAO index at 1 year lag with NAO leading. For SST anomalies significant correlation is found only for winter conditions. In contrast, for HC anomalies high correlations are found also in the summer suggesting that the summer HC keeps a memory of winter conditions.     

Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate

Decadal- to multidecadal variability in the extra-tropical North Pacific is evident in 20th century instrumental records and has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate and marine ecosystems. Several studies have discussed a potential linkage between North Pacific and Atlantic climate on various time scales. On decadal time scales no relationship could be confirmed, potentially due to sparse instrumental observations before 1950. Proxy data are limited and no multi-centennial high-resolution marine geochemical proxy records are available from the subarctic North Pacific. Here we present an annually-resolved record (1818–1967) of Mg/Ca variations from a North Pacific/Bering Sea coralline alga that extends our knowledge in this region beyond available data. It shows for the first time a statistically significant link between decadal fluctuations in sea-level pressure in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The record is a lagged proxy for decadal-scale variations of the Aleutian Low. It is significantly related to regional sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in late boreal winter on these time scales. Our data show that on decadal time scales a weaker Aleutian Low precedes a negative NAO by several years. This atmospheric link can explain the coherence of decadal North Pacific and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, as suggested by earlier studies using climate models and limited instrumental data.     

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.     

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation in Vojvodina,Serbia

Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation observed at 92 stations in Vojvodina (Serbia) were analyzed during the period 1946–2006. The rainfall series were examined by means of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The first set of singular vectors explains from 68.8 % (in summer) to 81.8 % (in winter) of the total variance. The temporal variability of the time series associated with the main EOF configurations (the principal components, PCs) was examined using the Mann–Kendall test and the spectral analysis. The time series of PC1 revealed decreasing trend in the winter and spring precipitation and increasing trend in the autumn, summer, and annual precipitation. The relationships between the first PC and circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, were also investigated. The PC1, displaying temporal behavior of the first mode, demonstrated evident correspondence with the NAO index in analysis of the annual, winter, and autumn precipitation. Power spectra of the PC1 show statistically significant oscillations of about 3.3 years for the spring precipitation and about 8 and 15 years for the winter precipitation. Comparisons with spectral analysis of authors for some regions in Europe, most of them in the Mediterranean domain, show that similar periodicities are detected.     

Global SST influence on twentieth century NAO variability

Recent studies have suggested that sea surface temperature (SST) is an important source of variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we deal with four basic aspects contributing to this issue: (1) we investigate the characteristic time scales of this oceanic influence; (2) quantify the scale-dependent hindcast potential of the NAO during the twentieth century as derived from SST-driven atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensembles; (3) the relevant oceanic regions are identified, corresponding SST indices are defined and their relationship to the NAO are evaluated by means of cross spectral analysis and (4) our results are compared with long-term coupled control experiments with different ocean models in order to ensure whether the spectral relationship between the SST regions and the NAO is an intrinsic mode of the coupled climate system, involving the deep ocean circulation, rather than an artefact of the unilateral SST forcing. The observed year-to-year NAO fluctuations are barely influenced by the SST. On the decadal time scales the major swings of the observed NAO are well reproduced by various ensembles from the middle of the twentieth century onward, including the negative state in the 1960s and part of the positive trend afterwards. A six-member ECHAM4-T42 ensemble reveals that the SST boundary condition affects 25% of total decadal-mean and interdecadal-trend NAO variability throughout the twentieth century. The most coherent NAO-related SST feature is the well-known North Atlantic tripole. Additional contributions may arise from the southern Pacific and the low-latitude Indian Ocean. The coupled climate model control runs suggest only the North Atlantic SST-NAO relationship as being a true characteristic of the coupled climate system. The coherence and phase spectra of observations and coupled simulations are in excellent agreement, confirming the robustness of this decadal-scale North Atlantic air–sea coupled mode.     

Interannual variability of winter precipitation over northwest India and adjoining region: impact of global forcings

The role of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mechanism through which ENSO influences the precipitation variability over northwest India and the adjoining (NWIA) region is well documented. In this study, the relative role of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) and ENSO in modulating the Asian jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere winter and their relative impact on the precipitation variability over the region have been estimated through analysis of observed data. It is seen that interannual variations of NWIA precipitation are largely influenced by ENSO. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis has been carried out to understand dominant modes of interannual variability of zonal wind at 200 hPa of the Northern Hemisphere. The EOF-1 pattern in the tropical region is similar to that of an ENSO pattern, and the principal component (PC) time series corresponds to the ENSO time series. The EOF-2 spatial pattern resembles that of NAO/AO with correlation of PC time series with AO and NAO being 0.74 and 0.62, respectively. The precipitation anomaly time series over the region of interest has marginally higher correlation with the PC-2 time series as compared to that of PC-1. Regression analysis of precipitation and circulation parameters indicates a larger contribution of the second mode to variability of winds and precipitation over the NWIA. Moisture transport from the Arabian Sea during the active phase of NAO/AO and the presence of a cyclonic anomaly lead to higher precipitation over the NWIA region.     

North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation

 The non-stationarity of the North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean coupling is investigated utilizing a long time integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a consistent atmospheric experiment forced by the climatological sea surface temperature (SST) of the coupled GCM. The temporal behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is non-stationary with two different decadal regimes being identified: (a) phases with enhanced (active) low-frequency variability of the NAO index are characterized by regional modes with a baroclinic Pacific-North America (PNA) and a dominant barotropic North Atlantic pattern; (b) in phases with reduced (passive) low-frequency variability a global mode connects tropics and midlatitudes. The characteristic space scales are similar in the coupled and the consistent atmospheric experiment; the time scales of the atmospheric eigenmodes are modified by ocean dynamics. In the active (passive) phase the corresponding atmospheric mode is reinforced by the North Atlantic (tropical Pacific) SST. Received: 15 September 2000 / Accepted: 30 March 2001     

The Influences of NAO and the Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada

Sea-ice cover over the Hudson Bay (HB) exhibits large variability in the freeze-up season normally starting in November. Its influence on the climate over eastern Canada has been studied with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) in three steps. First, a 30-year continuous simulation from 1970 to 1999 was performed as a control run to evaluate the simulated climate variability over eastern Canada, in particularly variability associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Then, 50 additional 1 month experiments were performed with modified sea-surface conditions prescribed over the HB. These integrations allowed us to quantify the contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies versus large scale NAO atmospheric variability (as defined by prescribed lateral boundary conditions) in inducing climate variability over eastern Canada. Results show that the NAO is the dominant factor controlling climate variability over eastern Canada. The contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies is significant only in the immediate coastal region. Under the influence of different phases of NAO, HB sea-ice anomalies do co-vary with temperature and precipitation anomalies downstream of the HB over eastern Canada. The ultimate cause of this co-variability is NAO variability which forces variability in both HB sea-ice cover as well as temperature/precipitation over eastern Canada.     

Variations of winter precipitation over southeastern China in association with the North Atlantic Oscillation

The synoptic-scale winter precipitation variations over southeastern China (22°–32°N, 105°–125°E) and their association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during 1951–2007 are investigated in this paper. The variability of wintertime precipitation is characterized by meridional displacement of its maximum center. Two precipitation regimes, with maximum centers located over the Yangtze and Pearl River basins, are identified via cluster analysis. Time-lagged analyses suggest that the two precipitation regimes are connected with the decaying phases of positive NAO (NAO+) events of different amplitudes. A strong (medium) NAO+ event is defined as one when the maximum amplitude of the NAO index exceeds 1.0 (in the range of 0.7–1.0) for at least 4 consecutive days and drops to less than 0.3 within 7 days following the peak index. After the peak of a strong NAO+, southerly winds expand northward to the Yangtze River (about 30°N), a northeast–southwest-tilted trough migrates to east of Lake Baikal, and cold air intrudes into central eastern China; thus, precipitation is strengthened over the Yangtze River basin where warm and cold air masses converge. In comparison, during the decaying phase of medium NAO+ events, the southerly winds are relatively weak, and precipitation tends to be enhanced at lower latitudes (around 25°N). Further analysis indicates that downstream Rossby-wave propagation may account for the latitudinal expansion of the southerly wind anomalies over the eastern coastal area of China during the decaying phase of NAO+ events of different strengths.     

Decadal trends of main Eurasian oscillations and the Eastern Mediterranean precipitation

Summary ?The role of the two main European low-frequency oscillations – the East Atlantic/West Russian (EA/WR) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in controlling the precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean region is investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Israeli precipitation data for 1958–1998. The data on the EA/WR and NAO indices, received from the NCEP Climate Prediction Center, are also adapted. Composite mean sea level and precipitation anomaly patterns are constructed and analyzed. In addition to the widely investigated positive NAO trend, another, also positive EA/WR trend characterized atmospheric developments during the period. During NAO positive months, the EA/WR-associated positive SLP anomaly areas were shifted from the east Atlantic to southwest Europe. The areas were shifted to the north during the NAO-negative months and were located over central and northern Europe. This demonstrates that the use of fixed pressure NAO patterns may be not the optimum way to understand climate variability. Analysis of the NAO, EA/WR patterns, as well as that of their decadal trends, demonstrated a relationship between the main European oscillations and the EM precipitation. The results allow explanation of the observed reduction of the north Israeli precipitation by the EA/WR positive trend during the period. Received April 5, 2001; Revised February 14, 2002     

Insights into Convective-scale Predictability in East China: Error Growth Dynamics and Associated Impact on Precipitation of Warm-Season Convective Events

This study investigated the regime-dependent predictability using convective-scale ensemble forecasts initialized with different initial condition perturbations in the Yangtze and Huai River basin(YHRB) of East China. The scale-dependent error growth(ensemble variability) and associated impact on precipitation forecasts(precipitation uncertainties) were quantitatively explored for 13 warm-season convective events that were categorized in terms of strong forcing and weak forcing. The forecast error growth in the strong-forcing regime shows a stepwise increase with increasing spatial scale,while the error growth shows a larger temporal variability with an afternoon peak appearing at smaller scales under weak forcing. This leads to the dissimilarity of precipitation uncertainty and shows a strong correlation between error growth and precipitation across spatial scales. The lateral boundary condition errors exert a quasi-linear increase on error growth with time at the larger scale, suggesting that the large-scale flow could govern the magnitude of error growth and associated precipitation uncertainties, especially for the strong-forcing regime. Further comparisons between scale-based initial error sensitivity experiments show evident scale interaction including upscale transfer of small-scale errors and downscale cascade of larger-scale errors. Specifically, small-scale errors are found to be more sensitive in the weak-forcing regime than those under strong forcing. Meanwhile, larger-scale initial errors are responsible for the error growth after 4 h and produce the precipitation uncertainties at the meso-β-scale. Consequently, these results can be used to explain underdispersion issues in convective-scale ensemble forecasts and provide feedback for ensemble design over the YHRB.     

Dependence of the accuracy of precipitation and cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales

Precipitation and associated cloud hydrometeors have large temporal and spatial variability, which makes accurate quantitative precipitation forecasting difficult. Thus, dependence of accurate precipitation and associated cloud simulation on temporal and spatial scales becomes an important issue. We report a cloud-resolving modeling analysis on this issue by comparing the control experiment with experiments perturbed by initial temperature, water vapor, and cloud conditions. The simulation is considered to be accurate only if the root-mean-squared difference between the perturbation experiments and the control experiment is smaller than the standard deviation. The analysis may suggest that accurate precipitation and cloud simulations cannot be obtained on both fine temporal and spatial scales simultaneously, which limits quantitative precipitation forecasting. The accurate simulation of water vapor convergence could lead to accurate precipitation and cloud simulations on daily time scales, but it may not be beneficial to precipitation and cloud simulations on hourly time scales due to the dominance of cloud processes.     

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO₂, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO₂. Results indicate that SST and CO₂ change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO₂ change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO₂ and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO₂ change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.