天时、气候与中国历史(Ⅰ):太阳黑子周长与中国气候

依据太阳黑子周期长度 (SCL)资料 ,将过去 2 5 0 0年分为“好天时代”(SCL <11年 )和“坏天时代”(SCL >11年 ) ,发现在“坏天时代”中国旱灾频率显著高于“好天时代”。“好 (坏 )天世纪”与气候暖(冷 )期有好的对应 ;并提出了太阳活动影响气候的过程链     

Quasi-periodicities in Chinese precipitation time series

Summary Although climate change deeply affects China, climatic time series are expected to show quasi-periodic behavior. This hypothesis has been tested by means of Autocorrelation Spectral Analysis (ASA) to detect quasi-periodicities in precipitation time series of 132 climate stations spread over China for the period from 1951 to 2002. A Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) has also been applied in order to examine if these quasi-periods are stable in time. Finally, it has been tested whether precipitation series recorded at neighboring stations show similar spectral behavior and can thus be grouped. All in all, our hypothesis regarding quasi-periodicities has been verified. Most of the time series show significant quasi-periods. A 2–3 year quasi-periodicity is predominant in many different regions of China. The result of ASA is that precipitation series from neighboring stations often show similar quasi-periods and therefore a grouping seems to be justified. However, the outcome of CWT provides more detailed information. In north-eastern China several series show similar quasi-periods which are statistically significant at different times; here, a grouping would be incorrect. In addition, the results of CWT show a less uniform pattern of quasi-periods in the southern inland regions. Whereas ASA shows a relatively uniform pattern of 2–3 year quasi-periods, CWT detects 2–3, 4–5 and 6–7 year quasi-periods. Nevertheless, although the quasi-periods are detected as being unstable, time series from neighboring stations sometimes show analogous significant quasi-periods within the same time frame and can thus be grouped. This can be seen in the northern part of central China, near the border to North Korea and along the coast of the South China Sea. Authors’ addresses: Heike Hartmann, Lorenz King, Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University, Senckenbergstra?e 1, 35390 Giessen, Germany; Stefan Becker, Department of Geography & Urban Planning, University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Oshkosh, WI 54901, U.S.A.     

我国气象卫星的发展与应用

本文介绍了风云系列气象卫星的现状,从观测内容、技术水平、业务运行、数据共享、应用等多个方面比较了国际和中国气象卫星的发展状况,并且提出了我国为提高气象卫星应用水平应该做的工作。经过四十多年的努力,我国已经成功地发展了风云一号、三号极轨和风云二号静止两个系列的气象卫星,并实现了业务化。从气象卫星获取的大气和地表信息,已被广泛应用于天气预报、气候预报、环境和自然灾害监测、农业等多个国民经济领域,为国家经济发展、社会进步做出了贡献。风云气象卫星不仅提供数据直接分发广播,而且通过Internet网络与用户广泛共享;不仅提供云图和观测数据,还提供大量的定量产品。但是风云气象卫星的定量产品精度不够高,影响了使用效果,我国气象卫星资料和产品进入数值预报模式的工作进展缓慢,基层台站预报人员对风云气象卫星云图的判读和应用水平不够高。提高卫星观测仪器的研发水平,做好数据预处理、处理、同化方面所涉及的基础理论研究工作,从根本上提高数据应用的水平是当务之急。     

中国气候变迁及其对地理环境的影响

总结了五千年中国历史上的气候变化的特征，论述了气候的冷暖周期性变迁对中国历史地理环境的影响。     

Updated Homogenized Chinese Temperature Series with Physical Consistency

Most methods of homogenization of climate data are applied to time series of a single variable, such as daily maximum temperature(Tmax) or daily minimum temperature(Tmin). Consequently, the physical relationship among different variables, e.g., TmaxTmin, may be distorted after homogenization of climate series of individual variables. The authors develop a solution to improve consistency among diurnal temperature records, while using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH) method to homogenize the observation series of daily mean temperature(Tm), Tmin, and Tmax at 545 stations in China for the period 1960–2011, called CHTM2.0. In the previous version of this homogenized dataset based on MASH(CHTM1.0) for the period 1960–2008, there are a few records(0.039% of the total) that are physically inconsistent. For developing CHTM2.0, the authors apply additional adjustments for each day with inconsistent temperature records, in order to hold TmaxTmTmin. Although the additional adjustments are barely influential for estimating long-term climate trends in China as a whole(because very few records are additionally adjusted), the newly introduced solution improves the physical consistency throughout the dataset. It is also helpful for developing more reasonable homogenized climate datasets with regard to physical consistency among multiple variables. Based on CHTM2.0, the annual Tmax/Tm/Tmin series averaged over China for the period 1960–2011 show significant warming trends of about 0.19/0.25/0.34°C per decade, respectively. Large warming trends of up to 0.425/0.596/ 0.704°C per decade occur in northeastern and northwestern China.     

国际极地年南极大气科学考察

2007年大气科学考察是"2007～2008国际极地年"(IPY)中国行动计划和中国第24次南极考察的重要内容.我院与国家海洋局极地办公室和中国极地研究中心合作,选派汤洁、逯昌贵等赴南极长城站和中山站进行度夏和越冬考察,开展了大气成分本底、臭氧垂直廓线探测、大气边界层和气象观测等科考项目.主要观测项目有:     

IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告中国引文计量分析

<正>2014年4月,IPCC第五次评估报告第三工作组报告(WGⅢAR5)正式发布[1],由58个国家的235位主要作者和38位编审共同起草完成,其中有14名中国专家。报告共4部分16章,引用文献总数为9276篇次,其中引言部分(第1章)236篇次,框架性问题(第2~4章)1970篇次,减缓气候变化的路径(第5~12章)5070篇次,政策、体制和资金评估(第     

The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal: Challenges and Prospects

On 22 September 2020, within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic, China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060. This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The planning effort is now in full swing in China, but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear. The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years, but the challenges are enormous. Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal, particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources. The high target values for nuclear, wind, and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations, with solar energy being the exception, suggesting solar’s critical role. We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition, followed by more drastic changes after 2030, can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions, thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario. The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China’s socio-economic reform, globalization, international collaboration, and development.     

中国气候变迁及其对地理环境的影响

总结了五千年中国历史上的气候变化的特征,论述了气候的冷暖周期性变迁对中国历史地理环境的影响.     

中国人皮肤相对湿度的地理分布

根据Ｂｅｒｇｌｕｎｄ等人（１９８３）公式：Ｗ＝（ｅｓｋ－ｅａ）／（ｅｓｓｋ－ｅａ），利用大气温度，大气水汽压和皮肤温度的月平均值，计算皮肤相对湿度，并按皮肤相对湿度划分舒适带。结果表明，决定我国皮肤相对湿度地理分布的基本因素是纬度，海陆分布，地形和大气环流，季节不同，则各因素所起作用有差异。作者以皮肤相对湿度２５％－４５％表示舒适带，计算表明，我国气候舒适带有明显的地区差异和季节变化。     

统计方法在中国农业气象中的应用进展

统计学是目前农业气象工作中最有效并广泛应用的研究工具,农业气象统计比一般生物统计和气象统计有着更广泛的内容和应用更复杂的特点。统计方法被广泛应用于农业气象试验数据处理与监测评估和农业气象预报中,其中有统计假设检验、分布函数、相关和回归分析、聚类分析、小波分析、经验正交函数分解、灰色关联分析、时间序列分析、人工神经网络等,每种统计方法都有自身的优点和不足。统计方法在农业气象中的运用,取得了许多成果,但也存在不足。今后,应结合农作物生长发育的机理,深入理解各种统计方法的数学原理,加强统计方法应用的规范性,以减少应用统计方法解决农业气象研究问题中常出现的简单照搬、应用盲目的现象;应强化假设检验在农业气象试验数据分析方面的应用、概率密度和分布函数的适用性等方面的研究,加强相关和回归分析方法应用的数据独立性检验,注意灰色关联分析法、人工神经网络法和回归分析法等不同预测方法应用结果的比较,为统计方法在农业气象中的规范化应用提供参考。     

板栗栽培管理技术

1　板栗的植物学特性　　板栗属阔叶落叶乔木 ,树高可达 1 5m,胸径 3～ 5m,树冠圆形 ,冠幅 1 5～ 2 0 m。叶片为单叶 ,每节除一个叶片外 ,着生两个托叶 ,当叶片停止生长后 ,托叶便脱落 ,叶片长 1 8～ 2 0 cm,宽 7～ 8cm,为椭圆形或长椭圆形。根系为深根性树种 ,有强大发达的根系 ,抗旱能力强。板栗为雌雄同株异花 ,雄花居多 ,雌雄花序比约为 1 7.7∶ 1 ,雄花序分化在上年生长季花芽的冬季休眠前完成 ,雌花簇分化在春季芽萌动时开始分化 ,展叶期在 4月中旬 ,开花次序先雄花后雌花 ,初花期在 6月上旬 ,到 6月底完成授粉期。9月中下旬坚果成熟…