试论决策气象服务

随着社会经济的发展和气象科技的进步,气象因素对经济的影响越来越明显,随之而来的是气象服务在国民经济中的作用越来越重要,气象行业已经成为国家重要的科技服务行业.中国气象局在气象事业发展"十五"计划的指导方针中指出,要把气象服务作为气象事业发展的宗旨.     

澳大利亚软科学有关情况介绍

随着社会经济的发展，软科学为决策科学化、民主化和规范化服务的功能越来越凸现，在科学和社会发展中的地位越来越重要。本文通过对澳大利亚联邦软科学管理和研究主要做法和经验的介绍，针对气象软科学工作的实际，提出了推动我国气象软科学发展的若干措施建议，以期在贯彻落实中国气象事业发展战略研究成果和气象事业的改革与发展中气象软科学能够得到新的发展。     

气象服务成本分析

气象事业是科技型、基础性社会公益事业，对国家安全、社会进步具有重要的基础性作用，对经济社会发展具有很强的现实性作用，对可持续发展具有深远的前瞻性作用。我国气象服务工作已经发展为三大体系，即为各级政府组织防灾减灾、经济建设和社会发展提供决策气象服务，为广大人民群众的生产、生活提供公众气象服务，为企业的生产经营和社会团体的社会活动提供专项气象服务。[第一段]     

内蒙古气象档案馆科技服务浅析

气象科技档案服务是气象事业的重要组成部分,它是依托基本气象业务,充分发挥气象服务效益的重要途径,是促进气象事业全面协调和可持续发展的重要保障。随着国家社会经济的发展,气象科技档案服务领域不断拓宽、手段也不断创新。建设现代气象科技档案服务体系,最根本的就是提高气象档案管理业务水平、科技实力和综合服务能力,巩固和加强气象科技档案工作在国家经济社会发展中的作用。随着我区气象科技档案馆档案网页的开发．以及信息查询系统的应用。科技档案管理和服务水平将上一个新的台阶。     

强化公共气象服务理念大力发展公共气象服务

气象科技服务作为气象事业和公共气象服务的重要组成部分,是深化改革和可持续发展的重要支撑,是拓展气象业务服务领域和使气象科技融入社会、向现实生产力转化的重要途径。多年来,气象科技服务工作有力地推进了气象事业的发展,通过积极开展特色服务,推进气象科技服务向规模化发展,取得了明显的经济效益和社会效益,得到了社会的认可。但是,随着事业的发展,我们也看到管理体制、运行机制、技术支撑等严重制约着气象科技服务发展,气象科技服务与公共气象的发展方向和社会需求还有一定差距。     

地面电场监测数据在雷暴预报中的应用

随着科技的进步和经济的发展,气象科技服务的领域越来越广,加入气象营销队伍的人越来越多,气象营销对开展气象科技服务无疑起着重要的作用,     

以公共气象理念为指导 大力发展气象科技服务

气象科技服务是气象事业的重要组成部分之一，在气象事业发展以及经济社会发展中发挥着重要的作用。在贯彻落实气象事业发展战略研究成果和深化气象事业改革中，要大力发展气象科技服务。本文以公共气象理念为指导，论述了新形势下发展气象科技服务重要意义，明确提出了新形势下气象科技服务的定位和分类以及气象科技服务发展的基本方向和政策措施。     

鄞县气象局开展气象科技服务回顾

引言 开展气象科技服务是气象部门的一项重要举措,它既是气象台站为发展地方经济服务的重要手段,也是增强地方气象事业发展的重要途径。随着改革开放的进一步深化,社会对气象科技服务的需求面越来越广,要求越来越高。社会向气象部门要优质产品,气象部门也迫切需要到社会找市场。因此我局原有的业务体制已不能适应事业发展的需要。在这种情况下,于1993年初进行了事业结构调整,设立了气象科技服务股,提出了综合创收实现一年翻一番的     

“入世”对我国气象服务领域的影响及对策

引言 气象是与全社会各行业都相关的基础性行业，气象服务是随着社会经济的发展而出现的新的经济形式。随着国民经济的快速发展和科技水平的提高，气象与国计民生的关系越来越密切，气象服务的社会效益也越来越明显。气象服务为社会创造价值的同时，还能为社会减少和避免损失。西方经济学界有一个“德尔菲气象定律”，称气象投入与产出比为1：98，即投资1元钱，可以有98元的经济回报。     

以科学发展观为指导推进气象科技服务新发展

随着科学技术的发展和服务水平的不断提高，气象科技服务渗透到国民经济建设各个领域，促进了经济发展、社会进步和人民生活水平的提高，同时也在气象事业结构调整、气象业务服务领域拓展、改善职工工作生活条件等方面发挥了重要作用。社会的需要繁荣了气象科技服务，气象科技服务的发展又促进了气象科技总体水平的提高，气象科技服务已成为公共气象服务体系的重要组成部分。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...