NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF IMPACT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WARM POOL/WEST PACIFIC ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON*

By using the NCAR CCM1 model, we have designed six sensitive experiments, which are increased and decreased SST(sea surface temperature) by 1℃ each in the SCS(South China Sea) and in the West Pacific warm pool, increased and decreased SST by 1℃ in the warm pool with increased SST by 1℃ in the SCS. All experiments are integrated from April to July. Comparing with the control experiment, we have analyzed the anomalies of the wind field at the upper and lower layers, the anomalies of the seasonal variability of the monsoon and precipitation for each experiment. In the result, we have found that the SST anomaly(SSTA) in the SCS greatly affects the seasonal variability of the SCS monsoon and precipitation in China, especially during the cold period of SST in the SCS. The impact of SSTA in the warm pool on SCS monsoon is also found.but is weak as compared to the effect of SST anomaly in the SCS. Besides, its impact on rainfall in China is uncertain.     

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and lowlevel-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea (SCS) based onCOADS (1958—1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data (1973—1986).Further statisticalanalyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level windsin the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's (1985)model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asianmonsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar tothe observations in the SCS.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPICAL ISO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The relationship between the tropical intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) and tropical cyclones (TCs) activities over the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) global reanalysis data and tropical cyclone best-track data from 1949 to 2009. The main conclusions are: (1) A new ISO index is designed to describe the tropical ISO activity over the SCS, which can simply express ISO for SCS. After examining the applicability of the index constructed by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), we find that the convection spatial scale reflected by this index is too large to characterize the small-scale SCS and fails to divide the TCs activities over the SCS into active and inactive categories. Consequently, the CPC index can’t replace the function of the new ISO index; (2) The eastward spread process of tropical ISO is divided into eight phases using the new ISO index, the phase variation of which corresponds well with the TCs activities over the SCS. TCs generation and landing are significantly reduced during inactive period (phase 4-6) relative to that during active period (phase 7-3); (3) The composite analyses indicate distinct TCs activities over the SCS, which is consistent with the concomitant propagation of the ISO convective activity. During ISO active period, the weather situations are favorable for TCs development over the SCS, e.g., strong convection, cyclonic shear and weak subtropical high, and vice versa; (4) The condensation heating centers, strong convection and water vapor flux divergence are well collocated with each other during ISO active period. In addition, the vertical profile of condensation heat indicates strong ascending motion and middle-level heating over the SCS during active period, and vice versa. Thus, the eastward propagation of tropical ISO is capable to modulate TCs activities by affecting the heating configuration over the SCS.     

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS NEIGHBORHOOD AND THEIR COMPARATIVE ANALYSES IN THE STRONG AND WEAK CONVECTION YEARS

The seasonal variations of convective activities over the South China Sea(SCS)and itsneighborhood.as well as the similarities and differences of convection in the different key regionsduring the strong and weak convection years are analyzed by using the pentad data of TBB from1980 to 1993.The results show that in winter and summer the seasonal variations of the convectiveactivities are synchronous over the SCS and its neighborhood,the anomalous convection amplitudesare obviously different in different regions.The significant extents of convective activities havesomewhat seasonal differences in the strong and weak convection years.In the strong convectionyears,it is in winter,spring and autumn that the convection anomaly is more evident than that inthe normal years,however,after the summer monsoon onset the convection is sustained.stableand similar to that in the normal years.In the weak convection years.the convection weakensgreatly in each season.but the primary weakening occurs in spring.summer and autumn.Nomatter in the strong or the weak convection years.the convective activities are somewhat ofdifference in the Bay of Bengal.the Indochina Peninsula.the SCS and the Philippines.In addition.the convective activities are also different over the south and the north parts of the SCS.theconvection variation in the strong year is similar to that in the weak year over the north part of theSCS.but over the south part there are great differences.     

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS NEIGHBORHOOD AND THEIR COMPARATIVE ANALYSES IN THE STRONG AND WEAK CONVECTION YEARS*

The seasonal variations of convective activities over the South China Sea(SCS) and its neighborhood.as well as the similarities and differences of convection in the different key regions during the strong and weak convection years are analyzed by using the pentad data of TBB from 1980 to 1993.The results show that in winter and summer the seasonal variations of the convective activities are synchronous over the SCS and its neighborhood,the anomalous convection amplitudes are obviously different in different regions.The significant extents of convective activities have somewhat seasonal differences in the strong and weak convection years.In the strong convection years,it is in winter,spring and autumn that the convection anomaly is more evident than that in the normal years,however,after the summer monsoon onset the convection is sustained.stable and similar to that in the normal years.In the weak convection years.the convection weakens greatly in each season.but the primary weakening occurs in spring.summer and autumn.No matter in the strong or the weak convection years.the convective activities are somewhat of difference in the Bay of Bengal.the Indochina Peninsula.the SCS and the Philippines.In addition.the convective activities are also different over the south and the north parts of the SCS.the convection variation in the strong year is similar to that in the weak year over the north part of the SCS.but over the south part there are great differences.     

南海和南亚大气季节内振荡月异常对夏季风活动及中国东部夏季降水的影响

利用ECMWF逐日再分析资料(1961—2000年),中国气象局国家气候中心提供的1961—2000年中国160个站降水资料,探讨了夏季逐月南海和南亚ISO的强弱对南海和南亚夏季风及中国东部降水的影响。研究表明,夏季各月南海和南亚ISO异常对夏季风活动及中国东部降水的影响存在显著的差异,有分月进行讨论的必要。夏季各个月南海大气ISO的异常对南海和南亚夏季风活动的影响在6、7月有些相似,都表现为ISO强(弱)与南海地区和南亚地区气旋性(反气旋性)环流相对应,而8月截然相反,ISO强(弱)与仍南海地区气旋性(反气旋性)环流对应,而南亚地区表现为反气旋性(气旋性)环流。南亚大气ISO异常对夏季风活动的影响与南海地区有较大差异,6月和8月南亚大气ISO强(弱)与南亚地区气旋性(反气旋性)环流对应,而7月ISO的强(弱)对应于南亚地区反气旋性(气旋性)环流。6月南亚大气ISO强(弱)对应于南海地区气旋性(反气旋性)环流,而7、8月无论是南亚大气ISO强年还是弱年,南海地区都表现为反气旋性异常环流。从降水来看,夏季6、7月南海大气ISO偏强(弱)年,长江以南大部分为正(负)距平而江淮流域降水基本上为负(正)距平。而8月南海大气ISO强弱年,长江以南与江淮流域这种反相的降水特征并不明显。7月南亚大气ISO强(弱)年,长江以南降水大部分为负(正)距平而江淮流域为正(负)距平,而6月和8月南亚大气ISO的强弱对中国东部降水的影响并不如7月表现明显。     

2004年南海夏季风的爆发及中南半岛陆面-过程的可能影响Ⅱ： 数值试验

在对南海夏季风的爆发及中南半岛陆面过程的可能影响进行了诊断分析的基础上,应用MM5/NOAHLSM模式,研究了中南半岛陆气相互作用对2004年南海夏季风爆发过程的可能影响。结果发现:在南海夏季风爆发前,中南半岛南海地区低层气温差确实出现低值,甚至负值;尽管短期内中南半岛土壤湿度和降水的变化没有引起季风爆发日期的改变,但对季风爆发的强度有影响。土壤湿度和降水变化引起的干异常可导致地表感热通量的增大和地表温度的升高,致使中南半岛与南海之间低层的温差异常(负温差)减小,季风爆发强度减弱;不同的是,湿异常可引起季风爆发强度增强。这一结果说明,在南海夏季风爆发前期,中南半岛上空对流活动和降水异常及其引起的土壤湿度的异常变化在一定程度上会影响到季风爆发的过程。文章还比较了不同温湿地表条件下低层大气状态的差异和地表能量、水分平衡过程的不同,分析了陆气相互作用对季风活动产生影响的物理机制。     

BASIC CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES OF AIR-SEA HEAT EXCHANGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) REGION AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE SCS MONSOONS

By using the NCEP reanalysis data set in 1979-1995, the fluxes of the latent heat, thesensible heat and the net long-wave radiation in the South China Sea (SCS) are expanded by meansof EOF in order to discuss the basic climatological features in the SCS. The detailed analysis showsthat the air-sea heat exchanges in different SCS regions have different seasonal variations. Themiddle and the north of the SCS are the high value regions of the air-sea heat exchanges during thewinter and the summer monsoon periods, respectively, the seasonal variations of air-sea heatexchanges in the south of the SCS are small. In addition, the proportions of different componentsin the total air-sea heat exchanges have different seasonal variations in different regions. Theresults show that the SCS monsoon and the air-sea heat exchanges in the SCS region are theaccompaniments of each other, the great difference of the sensible heat flux between the IndochinaPeninsula and the SCS before the SCS summer monsoon onset may be one of the triggers of thelatter. There maintains a high value center of the sensible heat flux before the 13th dekad, itsdisappearing time consists with that of the summer monsoon onset. It means that as far as the SCSlocal conditions are concerned, the northwest of the Indochina Peninsula is probably a sensitiveregion to the SCS summer monsoon onset and the land may play a leading role in the SCS summermonsoon onset.     

ANALYSIS OF LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 1998

1INTRODUCTIONLocatingatthesoutheasternpartofAsia,theSouthChinaSea(SCS)linkstheIndianOceanandwesternPacificandimmediatelyborderswiththeSouthAsiamonsoonregion.ItisanimportantlocationinwhichtheEastAsiamonsoonsysteminteractswiththeIndianOceanoneandamostdirectsourceofmoistureforthesubtropicalmonsoonsysteminEastAsia.TheSCSmonsoonanomaliescandirectlyaffectonthetemporal-spatialdistributionofprecipitationinthesouthofChinaandtheChangjiangRivervalleysothatseriousfloods/droughtsarecaused.Com…     

模式顶选取对南海季风爆发过程模拟的影响

本文利用MM5(V3)中尺度模式系统以1998年5月南海季风爆发过程为例，试验了模式顶层气压选取对南海季风爆发过程模拟结果的影响。共做了2个数值试验，分别将模式项选在100hPa和50hPa。试验表明，模式顶选取更高将使得和南海季风爆发过程相对应的东亚高空急流强度和位置模拟与观测更趋一致，并且南海北部地区季风爆发后强降水发生的时间及降水强度的模拟也得到明显改善。     

南海夏季风演变的气候学特征

本文总结南海北部地区夏季风演变的气候学特征，发现南海地区５月第３候对流层高层东风和北风爆发，对流层低层西风第１次跃升，东亚经向季风环流圈开始形成，这可以成为南海地区夏季风爆发的标志。对流层低层西风在６月中旬开始的第２次连续跃升对应江淮地区的梅雨爆发期。类似地，中国大陆夏季对流层低层５月初和６月初有两次爆发性增暖过程，第２次比第１次强烈得多。南海北部地区对流层低层纬向风速、比湿盛夏呈双峰型，纬向风速峰值分别出现在６月第５候和８月第４候，比湿峰值分别出现在６月第６候和８月第５候。比湿突升对应纬向风速突升，但略落后于风速峰值出现的时间。南海北部地区季风爆发前，温度是波动式上升的，南海季风爆发后，温度是波动式下降的。中国大陆东部及南海地区夏季对流层低层比湿分布有３次突变，即４月中旬南海北部比湿突增，并开始出现高比湿中心，而南海南部为最大比湿中心；５月中旬最大比湿中心已从南海南部跳到了南海北部－华南并向江淮流域扩展；６月中旬江淮流域比湿突增并一直维持到８月，同时南海南部高比湿带消失。而５月中旬ＯＬＲ有一次突变，ＯＬＲ低值区爆发性向北扩张，这对应于南海地区夏季风的爆发。而孟加拉湾地区夏季风演变的气候学特征与南海地区有较     

南海夏季风爆发与海温和大气对流的低频变化

根据云顶黑体温度（ＴＢＢ）相位变化并参考西沙站海面温度（ＳＳＴ）状况确定了南海夏季风爆发时间,分析研究了与夏季风爆发时间和强度有关的ＴＢＢ和ＳＳＴ变化过程,结果表明：南海夏季风爆发平均时间是５月第４候,爆发的时间和强度有显著的年际变化,爆发期间的海气状况与大气的低频振荡密切相关。夏季风爆发早年（５月第２候）,大气对流活动较强,西南风较强,海温下降我年（６月第１候）情况则相反;它爆发的强度还与爆发期     

南海夏季风爆发的气候特征

利用ＴＯＧＡ－ＣＯＡＲＥ强化期“实验３”号科学考究船所取得的表面气象的探空资料,对考察期间的热通量进行详尽的分析和计算,特别是对发生在ＩＯＰ期间的两次西风爆发过程中西太平洋热带海域热通量的特征进行了重点分析,并讨论了它们与大尺度环流及其中高纬度环流的关系。     

南海海流对冬季风风应力的响应特征

本文用美国普林斯顿大学海洋模式（ＰＯＭ）的南海版本（ＳＣＳ－ＰＯＭ） 模拟了持续冬季风风应力作用下,南海海流的响应特征。结果表明,从静止的海洋 出发,定常冬季风风应力驱动下的南海海流有明显的时间变化,垂直积分后的海流 （全流）约需１２０天左右的时间,方能达到准稳定态,表层、次表层和深层海流的时 间演变也有类似特征。模拟结果还表明,ＳＣＳ－ＰＯＭ有能力模拟出南海边界流、沿 岸流和海流的涡旋状结构。     

利用大尺度环流确定2006年南海夏季风爆发日期

南海夏季风爆发最显著的特征就是南海地区西南风的突然增强和降水的明显增多,往往采用南海地区低层平均风场和(或)对流强度来判别南海夏季风的爆发日期。这种方法在大多数的年份是适用的,但是2006年由于0601号台风“珍珠”的介入,利用南海地区的区域指标来确定南海夏季风的爆发日期就略显不足。要解决以上的问题,必须从更大尺度上去想办法。利用经圈和纬圈环流可以较好地确定2006年南海夏季风的爆发日期。分析结果表明2006年南海夏季风爆发于5月16日(第4候)。     

SENSITIVITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE RETRIEVAL TO SEA SURFACE EMISSIVITY

To estimate sea surface temperature(SST)with high accuracy from radiometrie measure-ments,it is no longer acceptable to assume that sea surface emissivity is unity or any other con-stant.This note presents an investigation of the desirable emissivity accuracy in relation to re-trieval.It was found that 1% error in surface emissivity can cause up to 0.7 K error in the re-trieved SST,although this sensitivity is often reduced to about 0.5 K on average because of thedownward atmospheric radiation at surface partially compensates for the emissivity error.Since thedownward atmospheric radiation ratio is controlled to a large extent by the integrated water vaporin the atmosphere and,secondarily,by view angle,the sensitivity of SST retrieval to surface emis-sivity has been computed as a function of these two parameters.     

南海夏季风建立的气候特征Ⅰ——40年平均

使用NCEP 1958～1997年40年逐日12层再分析的格点气象资料,对南海地区（105～120°E,5～20°N）夏季风建立的气候特征进行分析,分析的时间尺度为5天（候）。将南海上空850hPa上暖湿的西南风定义为它的夏季风,这暖湿的西南风之θse必须大于335°K,风速须大于2m/s。南海夏季风的建立被定义为南海海域一半以上面积为夏季风所控制的初始时刻。分析结果发现:（1）南海夏季风的建立具有爆发性,爆发时间是5月第4候。（2） 南海夏季风的建立与孟加拉湾东部西南季风有密切关系,它是孟加拉湾西南季风爆发性的发展和东移的结果。（3）南海夏季风雨季是随着夏季风建立而建立的。（4） 在南海夏季风建立期间,南海及其邻近地区高低空环流都有急速的变化,在对流层低层表现为印度低槽的南扩和加深,在对流层中层表现为西太平洋副热带高压迅速东移撤出南海地区,在对流层高层最明显的变化是东风带迅速从南海中部向北扩展到整个南海地区。     

STUDY ON THE AIR-SEA INTERACTION ON THE INTERANNUAL TIME SCALE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA*

In this paper we document the correlationship between sea surface temperature(SST) and low level-winds such as sea level wind and 850 hPa wind in the South China Sea(SCS) based on COADS(1958-1987) and ECMWF objective analysis data(1973-1986).Further statistical analyses tell us that there is a fixed SCS basin mode for variations both of SST and low-level winds in the region on the interannual time scale due to air-sea interactions.A simplified,coupled model that is designed following the McCreary and Anderson's(1985) model and includes the feedback between the upper ocean and the circulation of East Asian monsoon demonstrates an interannual oscillation in the coupled air-sea system,which is similar to the observations in the SCS.     

孟加拉湾季风爆发对南海季风爆发的影响Ⅰ:个例分析

利用南海季风试验分析场和NCAR向外长波辐射通量(OLR)资料研究了1998年孟加拉湾季风和南海季风爆发期间副热带环流的大尺度和天气尺度特征,探讨了孟加拉湾季风爆发与南海季风爆发之间的物理联系及孟加拉湾季风气旋的对流凝结潜热释放对副热带高压“撤出”南海的影响。结果表明,1998年5月爆发的东亚季风展现出典型的从孟加拉湾地区东传发展到南海地区的过程。随着孟加拉湾季风爆发和对流活动增强、北移,南海北部出现了低层西风和对流活动,领先于副热带高压在南海地区减弱和撤退。结果还显示南海北部地区的对流凝结加热有助于该地区经向温度梯度的反转,在热成风关系的制约下南海上空副热带高压脊面的垂直倾斜由冬季型转向夏季型,季风爆发。     

海雾的准周期振荡特征

根据南海北部海雾外场观测获取的高分辨率液态含水量、长波辐射通量数据,采用小波分析方法分析了2008年3月16—17日和18—19日两次海雾中的液态水含量、净长波辐射通量的变化特征,讨论南海北部海雾发展和维持的冷却机制。结果显示:(1)无论在有云或无云条件下,海雾都可发展和维持;但前者的液态含水量明显小于后者,而风速大于后者;(2)在地面海雾的生成之前和生成初期,净辐射通量都存在准周期振荡现象,无论无云/有云,地面海雾液态水的大幅度发展的阶段都存在含水量的准周期振荡现象;(3)含水量的准周期振荡现象与振荡发生时段的长波辐射通量关系不大,而主要通过湍流对液态水的混合作用与高空海雾液态水大量生成阶段的雾顶长波辐射间接相关。(4)海雾的生成都与雾顶长波辐射冷却密切相关,但发展和维持可通过不同的冷却机制,既可通过海气间湍流热量输送和辐射传输,也可通过雾顶长波辐射冷却。