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1.
In 1989, the need for reliable gridded land surface precipitation data sets, in view of the large uncertainties in the assessment of the global energy and water cycle, has led to the establishment of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at Deutscher Wetterdienst on invitation of the WMO. The GPCC has calculated a precipitation climatology for the global land areas for the target period 1951–2000 by objective analysis of climatological normals of about 67,200 rain gauge stations from its data base. GPCC's new precipitation climatology is compared to several other station-based precipitation climatologies as well as to precipitation climatologies derived from the GPCP V2.2 data set and from ECMWF's model reanalyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Finally, how GPCC's best estimate for terrestrial mean precipitation derived from the precipitation climatology of 786 mm per year (equivalent to a water transport of 117,000 km3) is fitting into the global water cycle context is discussed.  相似文献   

2.
This paper describes the construction of a 0.5°×0.5°daily temperature dataset for the period of 1961- 2005 over mainland China for the purpose of climate model validation. The dataset is based on the in- terpolation from 751 observing stations in China and comprises 3 variables: daily mean,minimum,and maximum temperature.The"anomaly approach"is applied in the interpolation.The gridded climatology of 1971-2000 is first calculated and then a gridded daily anomaly for 1961-2005 is added to the climatologY to o...  相似文献   

3.
The spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia during the summer (JJAS) season is studied using observations (both station and satellite based) and model simulation data. The simulation dataset is generated using the fourth version of the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) for the period 1989–2005. Ethiopia is first divided into 12 homogeneous regions using criteria including rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), spatial correlation, seasonal cycles, and topographical features. Spatially averaged observed and simulated rainfall time series are then generated and analyzed for each region. Standardized rainfall anomalies of the observations and the simulated data are highly correlated over the northern, western, northeastern, central, and southwestern regions, while a weak correlation is found over the border regions of the country. The dominant modes of rainfall variability are identified using REOF, while time–frequency variations of different dominant modes are described by wavelet analysis. The first leading patterns of rainfall and upper wind (averaged between 100 and 300 hPa) are highly correlated and exhibit similar features between simulation and observations over the northern, western, southwestern, and eastern regions of Ethiopia. The second loading pattern of rainfall and the first loading pattern of low-level wind (averaged between 850 and 1,000 hPa) exhibit a dipole structure across the southwestern and northeastern regions of the country. The dominant signals in the first rotated principal component (RPC) of rainfall and upper level wind fields show a period of 4–5 and 2–3 years, while the dominant signals in the second RPC show a period of 2–3 years at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations of significant RPCs across gauge, gridded, and model rainfall fields with that of low and upper level winds show the presence of a significant relationship (correlation exceeding ~0.6). Overall, the RegCM4 shows a good performance in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over Ethiopia.  相似文献   

4.
Summary High resolution January and July present day climatologies over the central-western Alpine region are simulated with a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) nested within a General Circulation Model (GCM). The RegCM was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is run at 20 km grid point spacing. The model is driven by output from a present day climate simulation performed with the GCM ECHAM3 of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) at T106 resolution (~ 120 km). Five January and July simulations are conducted with the nested RegCM and the results for surface air temperature and precipitation are compared with a gridded observed dataset and a dataset from 99 observing stations throughout the Swiss territory. The driving ECHAM3 simulation reproduces well the position of the northeastern Atlantic jet, but underestimates the jet intensity over the Mediterranean. Precipitation over the Alpine region in the ECHAM3 simulation is close to observed in January but lower than observed in July. Compared to the driving GCM, the nested RegCM produces more precipitation in both seasons, mostly as a result of the stronger model orographic forcing. Average RegCM temperature over the Swiss region is 2–3 degrees higher than observed, while average precipitation is within 30% of observed values. The spatial distribution of precipitation is in general agreement with available gridded observations and the model reproduces the observed elevation dependency of precipitation in the summer. In the winter the simulated elevation of maximum precipitation amounts is lower than observed. Precipitation frequencies are overestimated, while precipitation intensities show a reasonable agreement with observations, especially in the winter. Sensitivity experiments with different cumulus parameterizations, soil moisture initialization and model topography are discussed. Overall, the model performance at the high resolution used here did not deteriorate compared to previous lower resolution experiments.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.With 11 Figures  相似文献   

5.
To address the demand for high spatial resolution gridded climate data, we have advanced the Daymet point-based interpolation algorithm for downscaling global, coarsely gridded data with additional output variables. The updated algorithm, High-Resolution Climate Downscaler (HRCD), performs very good downscaling of daily, global, historical reanalysis data from 1° input resolution to 2.5 arcmin output resolution for day length, downward longwave radiation, pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, and vapor pressure deficit. It gives good results for monthly and yearly cumulative precipitation and fair results for wind speed distributions and modeled downward shortwave radiation. Over complex terrain, 2.5 arcmin resolution is likely too low and aggregating it up to 15 arcmin preserves accuracy. HRCD performs comparably to existing daily and monthly US datasets but with a global extent for nine daily climate variables spanning 1948–2006. Furthermore, HRCD can readily be applied to other gridded climate datasets.  相似文献   

6.
A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction—Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (ζ10) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with ζ10 ≤ ?1.5 × 10?5 s?1 and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 ± 11.2 and 278.7 ± 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (?9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (ζ10 ≤ ?2.5 × 10?5 s?1). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with ζ10 ≤ ?1.5 × 10?5 s?1, the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (ζ10 ≤ ?2.5 × 10?5 s?1) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.  相似文献   

7.
In order to model stratocumulus clouds and coastal fog, we have coupled the University of Washington boundary layer model to the regional climate model, RegCM (RegCM-UW). By comparing fog occurrences observed at various coastal airports in the western United States, we show that RegCM-UW has success at modeling the spatial and temporal (diurnal, seasonal, and interannual) climatology of northern California coastal fog. The quality of the modeled fog estimate depends on whether coast-adjacent ocean or land grid cells are used; for the model runs shown here, the oceanic grid cells seem to be most appropriate. The interannual variability of oceanic northern California summertime fog, from a multi-decadal simulation, has a high and statistically significant correlation with the observed interannual variability (r = 0.72), which indicates that RegCM-UW is capable of investigating the response of fog to long-term climatological forcing. While RegCM-UW has a number of aspects that would benefit from further investigation and development, RegCM-UW is a new tool for investigating the climatology of coastal fog and the physical processes that govern it. We expect that with appropriate physical parameterizations and moderate horizontal resolution, other climate models should be capable of simulating coastal fog. The source code for RegCM-UW is publicly available, under the GNU license, through the International Centre for Theoretical Physics.  相似文献   

8.
We present a 1-km2 gridded German dataset of hourly surface climate variables covering the period 1995 to 2012. The dataset comprises 12 variables including temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, global and direct shortwave radiation, down- and up-welling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, relative humidity and vapour pressure. This dataset was constructed statistically from station data, satellite observations and model data. It is outstanding in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and in the number of climate variables. For each variable, we employed the most suitable gridding method and combined the best of several information sources, including station records, satellite-derived data and data from a regional climate model. A module to estimate urban heat island intensity was integrated for air and dew point temperature. Owing to the low density of available synop stations, the gridded dataset does not capture all variations that may occur at a resolution of 1 km2. This applies to areas of complex terrain (all the variables), and in particular to wind speed and the radiation parameters. To achieve maximum precision, we used all observational information when it was available. This, however, leads to inhomogeneities in station network density and affects the long-term consistency of the dataset. A first climate analysis for Germany was conducted. The Rhine River Valley, for example, exhibited more than 100 summer days in 2003, whereas in 1996, the number was low everywhere in Germany. The dataset is useful for applications in various climate-related studies, hazard management and for solar or wind energy applications and it is available via doi: 10.5676/DWD_CDC/TRY_Basis_v001.  相似文献   

9.
湖北省雷暴日数与云地闪电密度关系研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
王学良  张科杰  黄小彦  刘学春 《气象》2012,38(6):728-732
为了研究年雷暴日数与雷击大地年平均密度关系,以满足雷电防护工程设计、雷击风险评估和雷电灾害防御工作需要,采用湖北省ADTD雷电监测定位系统探测的2007--2010年云地闪电资料和雷电监测理论探测效率在95%以上的28个气象台站的年雷暴日数,对台站周围不同半径距离范围内年平均云地闪电次数与年平均雷暴日数进行统计分析。结果表明:在台站周围18~20km范围内,相关系数明显增大,其中18km范围内相关系数最大为0.8521。由此可以认为,观测人员一般只能听到观测站点周围18~20km左右的雷声。经统计计算,拟合年平均雷暴日数与雷击大地年平均密度关系式为:Nc=0.029Td^1.5。通过2011年检验表明,采用拟合方程:Nc=0.029Td^1.5计算各台站雷击大地年平均密度明显优于规范方程:Nc=0.024Td^1.3计算的效果。  相似文献   

10.
As part of a joint effort to construct an atmospheric forcing dataset for mainland China with high spatiotemporal reso- lution, a new approach is proposed to construct gridded near-surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and surface pressure with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km. The approach comprises two steps: (1) fit a partial thin-plate smoothing spline with orography and reanalysis data as explanatory variables to ground-based observations for estimating a trend surface; (2) apply a simple kriging procedure to the residual for trend surface correction. The proposed approach is applied to observations collected at approximately 700 stations over mainland China. The generated forcing fields are compared with the corresponding components of the National Centers for Environmental Predic- tion (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset and the Princeton meteorological forcing dataset. The comparison shows that, both within the station network and within the resolutions of the two gridded datasets, the interpolation errors of the proposed approach are markedly smaller than the two gridded datasets.  相似文献   

11.
The regional climate model (RegCM3) from the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics has been used to simulate the Indian summer monsoon for three different monsoon seasons such as deficit (1987), excess (1988) and normal (1989). Sensitivity to various cumulus parameterization and closure schemes of RegCM3 driven by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting global spectral model products has been tested. The model integration of the nested RegCM3 is conducted using 90 and 30-km horizontal resolutions for outer and inner domains, respectively. The India Meteorological Department gridded rainfall (1° × 1°) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP)–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 of 2.5° × 2.5° horizontal resolution data has been used for verification. The RegCM3 forced by NCEP–DOE reanalysis-2 data simulates monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988 reasonably well, but the monsoon season of 1989 is not represented well in the model simulations. The RegCM3 runs driven by the global model are able to bring out seasonal mean rainfall and circulations well with the use of the Grell and Anthes–Kuo cumulus scheme at 90-km resolution. While the rainfall intensity and distribution is brought out well with the Anthes–Kuo scheme, upper air circulation features are brought out better by the Grell scheme. The simulated rainfall distribution is better with RegCM3 using the MIT-Emanuel cumulus scheme for 30-km resolution. Several statistical analyses, such as correlation coefficient, root mean square error, equitable threat score, confirm that the performance of MIT-Emanuel scheme at 30-km resolution is better in simulating all-India summer monsoon rainfall. The RegCM3 simulated rainfall amount is more and closer to observations than that from the global model. The RegCM3 has corrected its driven GCM in terms of rainfall distribution and magnitude over some parts of India during extreme years. This study brings out several weaknesses of the RegCM model which are documented in this paper.  相似文献   

12.
The outputs of three GCMs, ECHAM5, CCSM3 and HadCM3, are downscaled for the eastern Mediterranean–Black Sea region for the period 1961–1990 using a regional climate model, RegCM3, to assess the capability of these models in simulating the climatology of the region. In addition, the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data are also downscaled for the same period to display the performance of the regional climate model for the same region, which constitutes a relatively complex terrain and rich variety of climates. The gridded observational dataset of CRU is primarily used in the evaluation of the models, however, a regional dataset, which is based on a relatively dense gauging network, is also used to see how it affects the performance measures of the models. The reanalysis simulation indicates that RegCM3 is able to simulate the precipitation and surface temperature as well as the upper level fields reasonably well. However, it tends to overestimate the precipitation over the mountainous areas. All three GCM models are found to be highly skilled in simulating the winter precipitation and temperature in the region. The two models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3, are also good at simulating the summer precipitation and temperature, but the CCSM3 simulation generates dryer and warmer conditions than the observations for the whole region, which are most likely a result of the dryness in the upper levels of the original outputs. The use of the regional observational dataset does not necessarily improve the pattern correlations, but it yields better match between the modeled and observed precipitation in terms of variability and root-mean-square difference. It could be said that the outputs of these GCMs can be used in the climate change downscaling and impact assessment studies for the region, given that their strengths and weaknesses that are displayed in the present study are considered.  相似文献   

13.
This paper provides an overview of the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries during the period of 1951–2000. Our study area is in northeastern Europe and encompasses Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Visual thunderstorm observations at 59 weather stations were used as a data source. The mean annual number of thunderstorm days was 12–29.5. The seasonal cycle of thunderstorm hours with a daily step unexpectedly showed two maxima, whereas the monthly numbers of thunderstorm days had one clear mid-latitude specific peak between June and August. The diurnal cycle of thunderstorm hours showed a peak between 1400 and 1800 local time and a minimum between 0400 and 1000 hours local time. The average annual duration of thunderstorm events was 112 min. The average number of thunderstorm events per thunderstorm day was around 1.1–1.2. Our results showed that the thunderstorm climate of the Baltic countries generally resembles that of other mid-latitude study sites.  相似文献   

14.
使用区域气候模式Reg CM4.4(Regional Climate Model version 4.4)单向嵌套CCSM4.0(Community Climate System Model version 4.0)气候系统模式输出结果,进行了2001~2010年逐年2月1日至9月1日共10年长度的季节尺度气候预测回报试验,针对平均气温和降水,分析了两个模式对中国地区夏季(6~8月)气候的回报能力。首先对气候态的分析表明,Reg CM4.4对气温和降水的回报/模拟效果均较CCSM4.0有所改进,特别是在提供更详细可靠的局地信息方面,其中降水回报与观测的空间相关系数,由CCSM4.0的0.39提高到Reg CM4.4的0.53,但同时Reg CM4.4对中国东部季风降水的回报表现出类似CCSM4.0北方偏多的偏差。对两个模式2001~2010年逐年气温和降水距平的回报能力,通过回报与观测空间和时间距平相关系数(ACCs和ACCt)、回报与观测空间和时间距平符号一致率(PCs和PCt)以及趋势异常综合评分(PS)进行了考察,结果表明两个模式的表现在整体分布上有一定相似的同时,Reg CM4.4能够提供更多的空间分布细节,并对降水的回报结果有一定的改善,如CCSM4.0和Reg CM4.4回报降水的ACCs多年平均分别为0.03和0.10,PS分别为70.4和71.4。同时给出了两个具体年份(2003年和2009年)的个例分析。  相似文献   

15.
通过对2006年6~9月(雨季)大量雷暴对流参数进行计算,选取离西昌发射场最近的单点同化资料。利用相关系数法选取相关性好且稳定的预报因子,进行事件概率回归,得到雷暴预报方程。并对2007年雨季西昌雷暴进行预报,取得了较好的效果。分析表明,基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法对场区雷暴的预报具有明显的效果。   相似文献   

16.
Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) alone and in combination with the lifted stability index of the most unstable layer (SMUL) is evaluated as a thunderstorm predictor. By using six-hourly standard pressure weather analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 30 days in the summers of 1992 and 1994 containing several severe weather events along with quiescent events in northwestern Europe 17,206 events are obtained. The location and time of a lightning discharge are obtained from the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) sferics lightning location system from the UK Meteorological Office. Using the Heidke Skill Score (HEIDKE) to determine the best threshold we conclude that VIMFC alone, does not perform well as a dichotomous thunderstorm predictor compared to the stability index. However, the Thundery Case Probability (TCP) tested as function of VIMFC results in a high correlation with thunderstorms. By combining SMUL and VIMFC the surplus value as a thunderstorm predictor of VIMFC was established. TCP percentages up to 95% were found in an unstable environment with high positive values of VIMFC. In a marginally unstable environment with a high positive VIMFC the thunderstorm probability is higher than in a very unstable environment with no or negative VIMFC. These results are illustrated with a study of the case of the disastrous flash flood at Vaison-La-Romaine (southeastern France) on September 22, 1992. Although latent instability was present in a large area surrounding Vaison-La-Romaine, nearly all and especially the most severe thunderstorm activity occurred within the smaller area with positive VIMFC and latent instability.  相似文献   

17.
近50年广东省雷暴、闪电时空变化特征的研究   总被引:33,自引:12,他引:33  
用1957-2004年广东省24站和1951-2004年曲江、广州、汕头、湛江4站的年、月雷暴、闪电的观测资料,研究了广东省年、月的雷暴日、闪电日的时、空分布特征。对年雷暴日、闪电日的经验正交分解表明,在研究的时间段内。广东省年的雷暴日、闪电日都有明显减少的趋势。广东省平均每10年雷暴日减少4.8天、闪电日减少9.5天。雷暴日和闪电日的趋势变化有明显的区域特征,雷暴日减少最明显的是在广东雷州半岛的湛江、徐闻;广东东南部的雷暴日、闪电日则减少不多。闪电的负趋势比雷暴的负趋势更明显。研究表明,雷暴日、闪电日的长期趋势有明显的季节变化。5-9月是雷暴日、闪电日减少最明显的月份,冬季(12、1、2月)的雷暴日、闪电日略有增加。1983年以后广东冬季的雷暴、闪电比1980年以前更加频繁。广东雷暴、闪电的减少是气候变化的一个反映,它们与广东省雨日的气候变化比较一致。  相似文献   

18.
We study the influence of station network density on the distributions and trends in indices of area-average daily precipitation and temperature in the E-OBS high resolution gridded dataset of daily climate over Europe, which was produced with the primary purpose of Regional Climate Model evaluation. Area averages can only be determined with reasonable accuracy from a sufficiently large number of stations within a grid-box. However, the station network on which E-OBS is based comprises only 2,316 stations, spread unevenly across approximately 18,000 0.22° grid-boxes. Consequently, grid-box data in E-OBS are derived through interpolation of stations up to 500 km distant, with the distance of stations that contribute significantly to any grid-box value increasing in areas with lower station density. Since more dispersed stations have less shared variance, the resultant interpolated values are likely to be over-smoothed, and extreme daily values even more so. We perform an experiment over five E-OBS grid boxes for precipitation and temperature that have a sufficiently dense local station network to enable a reasonable estimate of the area-average. We then create a series of randomly selected station sub-networks ranging in size from four to all stations within the E-OBS interpolation search radii. For each sub-network realisation, we estimate the grid-box average applying the same interpolation methodology as used for E-OBS, and then evaluate the effect of network density on the distribution of daily values, as well as trends in extremes indices. The results show that when fewer stations have been used for the interpolation, both precipitation and temperature are over-smoothed, leading to a strong tendency for interpolated daily values to be reduced relative to the “true” area-average. The smoothing is greatest for higher percentiles, and therefore has a disproportionate effect on extremes and any derived extremes indices. For many regions of the E-OBS dataset, the station density is sufficiently low to expect this smoothing effect to be significant and this should be borne in mind by any users of the E-OBS dataset.  相似文献   

19.
利用基于张弛逼近的四维数据同化技术,构建了广东深圳的千米格距网格化气象数据集,由于同化了深圳及周边可获得的高频次观测数据,气象数据集基本准确表现出几种关键气象要素的年际变化和月变化特征。在网格化气象数据集基础上开发了“深圳市细网格气候信息平台”,并通过平台推出了若干精细气候数据产品:精细风玫瑰、逐网格风能等。这些数据产品已经在格点气温预报、风能示范项目选址以及详细规划的自然通风评估中发挥了实际作用。这些探索表明,网格化气象数据集的建立,有望为城市的网格化精细管理和建设提供气象科技支撑。   相似文献   

20.
Efficient and proper understanding of the state of the clouds regarding different seasons of the year will have profound effects on different economic and environmental sectors. The purpose of this study is to determine the hourly dissociation of ice and liquid clouds in Iran. To this end, cloud optical thickness (COT) data, as well as optical depth of clouds in two phases of liquid and ice were obtained and processed from 31 synoptic meteorological stations (1960–2015), MODIS data from Terra satellite during the years 2001 to 2011, and they were processed then. Next, using the RegCM4 model, the cloud fraction (clt) was simulated to accurately identify the cloud cover situation in Iran. The results showed that the maximum annual mean abundance of liquid and ice clouds was 18.95 days for the time 15:00 and 3.99 days for the time 06:00, respectively. Climatic zones of the Caspian and Persian Gulf coasts at 15 o’clock had the highest decreasing trend of liquid clouds. Ice clouds in all parts of Iran’s climate, with the exception of the eastern plateau, also declined. From south to north and east to west of Iran, the occurrence of ice and liquid clouds is increasing. Therefore, the spatio-temporal distribution of liquid and ice clouds in the country was also dependent on spatial components and latitude had the greatest impact. From the satellite and modeled data, the RegCM4 model has been able to detect the Monsoon phenomenon in southeastern Iran during the summer. CLT simulation in Iran has also shown that cloud cover in Iran fluctuates between 28 and 65% on average, with 81.5% of Iranian stations having a significant change in the amount of annual cloud cover. Correlation of liquid and ice clouds with precipitation showed that liquid clouds in summer and ice clouds in spring had higher correlation with precipitation in Iran. Northern coasts of Iran due to greater ascent mechanisms such as coastal compressors, north latitude atmospheric circulation systems, and maximum winds in the north and west of Iran due to the location of western systems entry and sufficient thermal gradient, had maximum ice clouds in the last half century. Also, south of Iran, despite having extended and great water-bodies, is less cloudy due to descending air in Hadley’s circulation (Hadley cell) of air.  相似文献   

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