共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 62 毫秒
1.
2.
The integral equation method is related to the random walk modelling that has proved so effective and popular in recent years. The I.E. method, by using simple probability techniques, avoids the inefficient determination of thousands of trajectories in order to build up concentration profiles. In fact it is so simple and efficient it can be run on a conventional programmable calculator. The method is applied to passive material being released from an elevated source within a neutrally stable surface layer over a uniform surface, and also to an instantaneous release when the effect of wind shear is examined. The latter scenario is also studied using random walk techniques and a comparison of the solutions obtained. Agreement is very good, although downwind spread is shown to be quite sensitive to gridlength size in the I.E. method. 相似文献
3.
V. N. Kryzhov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(5):291-297
Proposed is a method of downscaling of the global ensemble seasonal forecasts of air temperature computed using the SLAV model of the Hydrometcenter of Russia. The method is based on the regression and suggests a probabilistic interpretation of forecasts based on the assessment of uncertainty associated with the regression and model forecast ensemble spread. The verification of the method for 70 weather stations of North Eurasia using the rank probability skill score RPSS showed a significant advantage of downscaled forecasts over the forecasts interpolated from the model grid points. It is concluded that the use of the downscaling method is reasonable for the long-range forecasting of the station air temperature for North Eurasia. 相似文献
4.
利用REM模式的伴随系统和非线性优化方法,通过三个实际天气个例,对REM模式的可预报性问题进行了研究。结果表明,REM模式在给定的实际应用中可接受的预报误差范围内,对三个天气个例都具有预报能力。对于个例一,利用现有的常规报文初始观测场,进行简单的插值处理(最优插值等),REM数值模式就可以得到比较满意的预报结果; 对于个例二和个例三,对现有的报文初始观测场进行处理(如四维变分资料同化)后,REM模式在给定的误差允许范围内,对这两个天气个例仍得到满意的预报。研究结果不仅对改进数值模式具有一定的指导意义,而且对如何改进数值模式的初值问题,特别是在中尺度天气预报中如何改进具有一定的参考价值。 相似文献
5.
M. M. Trofimchuk 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2018,43(7):483-487
A new method to assess the state of aquatic ecosystems by the ecosystem entropy variation using data on dissolved oxygen concentration and water temperature is discussed. The method is based on the thermodynamic state parameter which allows the uniform evaluation of the state of aquatic ecosystems regardless of their typological and regional features. The proposed method can be implemented in the automated way and in real time. 相似文献
6.
O. V. Shtyrkov V. A. Yushkov S. V. Zhurin A. L. Kusov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2017,42(12):817-826
A new approach to the calculation of aerodynamic characteristics ofthe rocket sensor with the oncoming gas flow using the method of direct statistical modeling and software allows computing the factor of aerodynamic interaction between the instrument and the oncoming air flow and thereby linking the measured air density with the density of the unperturbed atmosphere for the Mach number range of 0-3 and Knudsen number range of 10-3 -10. On the base of the obtained results the method of air density measurement using meteorological rockets is developed. 相似文献
7.
介绍了利用卫星云图资料估算黄河中游面雨量的基本方法:将GMS卫星1h间隔的可风和红外云图作为判别的两个特性进行分类,确定红外光线资料的所有最小值点作为对流核;多参照Negri-Adler的方法,应用斜率参数消除卷云;应用-维云模式确定红外线图上对流核的降水率,层状云降水通过一个温度阈值给出。另外,通过2001年7月26日至28日黄河流域出现的一次较强降雨过程进行应用分析,得出结论--利用卫星云图估算黄河中游地区平均雨量的方法具有很好的实用价值。 相似文献
8.
CloudSat云底高度外推估计的可行性分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
云底高度对于全球辐射平衡以及航空飞行均具有重要影响。针对CloudSat与MODIS主、被动观测的优缺点,本文提出了利用MODIS云分类信息进行CloudSat云底高度外推估计的技术。首先使用MODIS和CloudSat数据,利用回归分析方法比较了基于云类型(CSAT)与基于距离(MSAT)的云底高度估计方法的优劣。此外,分析了中国及周边地区CloudSat各类云云底高度的均一性特征。最后,利用CloudSat各类云云底高度的统计特征,建立了一种基于云类型和距离权重的云底高度估计方法,并对该方法进行了验证和分析。结果表明,利用该方法得到的MODIS各类云云底高度估计误差的标准差均小于1.5 km,除了积雨云在观测点与待测点距离大于400 km的估计误差均值稍大于1.5 km外,各种情况下其他各类云的云底高度估计误差的均值均小于1.5 km。 相似文献
9.
José Luis Argaín Pedro M. A. Miranda Miguel A. C. Teixeira 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,130(1):15-28
A method is suggested for the calculation of the friction velocity for stable turbulent boundary-layer flow over hills. The
method is tested using a continuous upstream mean velocity profile compatible with the propagation of gravity waves, and is
incorporated into the linear model of Hunt, Leibovich and Richards with the modification proposed by Hunt, Richards and Brighton
to include the effects of stability, and the reformulated solution of Weng for the near-surface region. Those theoretical
results are compared with results from simulations using a non-hydrostatic microscale-mesoscale two-dimensional numerical
model, and with field observations for different values of stability. These comparisons show a considerable improvement in
the behaviour of the theoretical model when the friction velocity is calculated using the method proposed here, leading to
a consistent variation of the boundary-layer structure with stability, and better agreement with observational and numerical
data. 相似文献
10.
用T矩阵方法计算超椭球粒子的电磁散射特性 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
利用超椭球体方程描述粒子形状,用Matlab实现粒子形状的的绘制并离散粒子表面。用T矩阵方法计算了粒子的一些散射性质,并与其他算法做了对比。 相似文献
11.
基于增长模繁殖法的初始分析误差
计算及集合预报试验 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
首先用成对繁殖的方法对NCEP再分析资料与T106分析场中的快速增长分析误差进行了计算和比较,然后把它们叠加到各自的初始场中进行了多初值集合预报试验。结果表明,用不同分析资料计算的达到饱和的快速增长误差,两者在全球分布上既有许多相似的地方,也存在一些不同,多初值集合是综合考虑它们的有效方法;考虑了两种分析误差的集合预报比只考虑一种分析误差的集合预报优越;在集合总成员数不变的前提下,发现引入另一种分析资料的集合成员数并不是越多越好,就预报技巧的最大改善而言,其存在一个阀值。 相似文献
12.
在核安全分析和环境影响评价中,必须使用到的是小时气象数据。对自动气象站小时风向的计算方法和小时数据如何统计,地面气象规范中和核安全导则中还没有定论,因此本文对小时风向统计方法展开讨论。目前小时风向值的计算方法有算术平均法、滑动平均法、矢量平均法和频率最高法,针对算术平均法和滑动平均法对经过0°的风向统计容易出现误差,本文提出对此的修正方法并对4种计算方法进行了比较。结果表明:文中过零风向修正方法简便准确,小时数据统计方法为正点前10min数据时,修正算术平均法更可靠,但该方法对风速为零时的判断容易出现误差,因此在小风、静风频率高的地方推荐矢量平均法。关于小时数据的划分方法,美国核管会RG1.23与我国核安全导则及地面气象规范中的规定不同,因此文中利用实测资料对不同小时数据统计方法所得结果比较,分析表明,取整点前或其他时段的10min和15min的数据进行平均的风向相关矩阵一致性为97.87%;取4个15min平均值的平均或6个10min数据平均值的平均作为小时值的风向相关矩阵一致性为99.96%,这两种统计方法与取10min和15min的一致性为86.00%,相对较差;取60min时段的平均值作为小时值则与其余方法一致性最差。 相似文献
13.
通过采用阈值法对数值预报产品进行释用,温度和晴雨预报的准确率有了明显提高,结果表明:阈值法是一种简单、快捷、准确的数值预报产品的释用方法,在实际天气预报中非常有效。 相似文献
14.
针对处理运动界面问题的流体体积函数(VOF)法,给出了一种高分辨率的运动界面捕捉方法.该方法采用五阶高精度和高分辨率的加权本质无振荡(WENO)有限差分格式离散VOF函数的空间导数;采用四阶Runge-Kutta方法离散时间导数;采用LocalLax-Friedrich通量作为数值流通量.用该方法对旋转流场和剪切流场中的运动界面追踪,结果表明该方法有较好的适用性和精确性. 相似文献
15.
文中讨论了车贝雪夫多项式值计算误差对作者以前提出的一种新的时间序列预报方法的预报结果的影响,并在此基础上对原来的计算方案作了推广,推广后的算法有利于提高预报准确率。 相似文献
16.
Nobuyuki Kinoshita 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,152(1):91-105
Near-surface air temperature is the most important variable in the climatic analysis of global warming. The air temperature near the surface is affected by the artificial surface (asphalt, concrete and buildings for example) surrounding the thermometer. However, there is no quantitative method for evaluating the observational environment. Therefore, a practical evaluation method with a scientific basis is required to aid observational network managers and data users. The magnitude of the artificial surface influence on the air temperature and its characteristics are investigated using numerical experiments with various road widths and wind speeds. The results show that the temperature increase in the lee of the road depends on the distance from the road, the road width, the wind speed and the thermal stratification and that the temperature increase can be estimated using an analytical footprint model. In order to estimate the largest value of the temperature increase, a function is developed from the footprint model; it depends on the normalized distance based on the road width, and thus can be calculated easily. A practical method using this function is proposed for the evaluation of the effect of the observational environment. 相似文献
17.
天气雷达天线馈源的精确定位关系到雷达数据的精确使用和天气雷达全网拼图的使用效果.目前,国内新一代天气雷达天线馈源坐标基本都是使用GNSS(GLobal Navigation Satellite System)系统中的美国GPS(Global Position System)系统接收机,在雷达塔楼楼顶单点瞬时定位测量得到的,误差一般大于30 m.为了提高定位精度,将GPS精确定位技术与全站仪测量相对高度结合起来,提出了一种测量天气雷达的馈源坐标的方法,可使天线馈源的海拔高度测量精度达到10 m以内.使用这种方法对北京市气象局S波段新一代天气雷达天线馈源坐标进行了实地测量,精度达到设计要求. 相似文献
18.
19.
20.
本文提出了一种用三波段(0.86,1.35,3.2 cm)地基微波辐射计联合反演雨天大气的水汽总量Q,云路径积分液水含量L和雨的垂直路径参数的物理迭代方法。134份样本数值检验结果表明:当雨强小于20 mm/h时,反演的Q,L及雨参数值与模拟真值的相对误差分别在4%,18%,13%以内;当雨强超过20 mm/h时,相对误差分别是25%,57%和3%。文中还特别指出,单独用3.2 cm辐射计测小雨雨强时,相对误差很大,而联合反演能大大提高测雨精度。最后,讨论了该方法的实际应用可能性,表明三波段联合,为全天候监测大气中的水,提供了实际可行的途径。 相似文献