Relations between oxygen stable isotopic ratios in precipitation and relevant meteorological factors in southwest China

The correlations of isotopic ratios in precipitation with temperature, air pressure and humidity at dif- ferent altitudes, in southwest China, are analyzed. There appear marked negative correlations for the δ 18O in precipitation with precipitation amount, vapor pressure and atmospheric precipitable water (PW) at Mengzi, Simao and Tengchong stations on synoptic timescale; the marked negative correlations between the δ 18O in precipitation and the diurnal mean temperature at 400 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa are different from the temperature effect in middle-high-latitude inland. Moreover, the notable positive correlation between the δ 18O in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td at different altitudes is found at the three stations. On annual timescale, the annual precipitation amount weighted mean δ 18O display the negative correlations not only with annual precipitation but also with annual mean temperature at 500 hPa. It can be deduced that, in the years with abnormally strong summer monsoon, more warm and wet air from low-latitude oceans is transported northward along the vapor channel located in southwest China and generates abnormally strong rainfall on the way. Meanwhile, the ab- normally strong condensation process will release more condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the rise of atmospheric temperature during rainfall, but decline of the δ 18O in precipitation. On the contrary, in the years with abnormally weak summer monsoon, the abnormally weak condensation process will release less condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the decline of atmos- pheric temperature during rainfall, but increase of the δ 18O in precipitation.     

夏季风期间长江流域的水汽输送状态及其年际变化

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了长江流域夏季风期间的水汽收支和循环,着重研究了不同月份与水汽收支的年际变化显著相关的大尺度水汽输送和环流异常.流域范围的西南夏季风水汽输送以6、7月最为强烈,经向输送在5～8月造成流域水汽辐合,9月造成辐散;纬向输送在5～7月造成流域水汽辐散,8、9月造成辐合.研究表明,在不同月份,流域的南北边界处的水汽输送在流域水汽收支的年际变化中起着不同的作用.这种变化与大气环流的异常密切相关.在夏季风相对较弱月份（5、8、9月）,流域水汽收支的年际变化极大地受到流域南边界南风水汽输入通道的影响,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,该3个月500 hPa高空在青藏高原东部都存在显著异常低压区,而且,8、9月在中南半岛及其以东洋面存在显著异常反气旋环流,与8月西太副高的向西向南异常伸展,以及9月副高的西伸较弱和南北范围较宽有关,这些异常环流均造成南边界的大量异常水汽输入.而在夏季风十分强盛的6、7月,流域北边界南风水汽输出极大增加,成为流域水汽收入年际变化的关键敏感通道,对应于水汽收入偏丰年,6月500 hPa高空主要受中纬度以黄海和东海为中心的异常低压系统和气旋性异常环流影响,与该区域副高偏南、偏弱有关,而7月则主要受中高纬以外兴安岭为中心的异常高压和反气旋性异常环流影响,应该是由于该区域大陆高压的频繁生成造成的,它们均造成流域北边界水汽输出的异常减少.     

Preliminary analysis on the relationships between Tibetan Plateau NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China

Using the automatic weather station data obtained from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the normalized dif- ference vegetation index and the monthly precipitation data of China and by the methods of correlation and composite analysis, preliminary analytical results are achieved concerning the relationships be- tween TP NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China. The results of our re- search may lead to the following conclusions: (1) A positive correlation relationship exists between TP NDVI change and its surface heat source, including the sensible heat and the latent heat. As to the correlation of the former, it is more remarkable in western TP than in eastern TP, and as to the correla- tion of the latter, however it turns out contrary. (2) With the improvement of TP vegetation, its surface heat source of every season is also mainly reinforced, especially in summer. As to the contribution of the sensible heat and the latent heat to the increment of the TP surface heat source intensity, the for- mer is comparatively more significant than the latter in winter and spring, while in summer and autumn, the two have almost the same importance. (3) The correlation coefficient between summer NDVI over TP and the corresponding period precipitation of China displays a belt distribution of " ? " from south to north China. (4) Anomalous surface heating field over TP derived from vegetation change is probably an important factor to affect summer precipitation of China.     

Simulated effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China

Human activities result in deforestation, expansion of cropland, grassland degradation, urbanization and other large-scale land use/cover change; among these, cropland expansion is one of the most important processes. To understand the effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China, two 21-year simulations (spanning January 1, 1980–December 31, 2000), using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0), were performed. The two simulations comprised current realistic land use/cover patterns and the previous vegetation cover without crop expansion, to investigate the impact of crop expansion on seasonal temperatures over China. The results showed that due to cropland expansion: (1) the most obvious changes occurred in the maximum temperatures, followed by the mean surface air temperatures, and the minimum temperatures were the least affected; (2) the summer mean maximum temperatures decreased in most parts of eastern China, and the temperatures changed significantly in most parts of northeast China, north China and central China (p < 0.05); (3) the surface air temperatures, maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures in summer decreased in the different regions by between −0.03 and −0.76 °C (the greatest temperature changes occurred in southwest China, and the smallest were in northeast China); (4) the net radiation flux and latent heat flux increased, while the sensible flux decreased, when semi-desert vegetation was replaced by dry land crops, in both summer and winter seasons, and the converse occurred when irrigated crops were replaced by dry land crops. In addition, the net radiation flux and sensible heat flux decreased, and the latent heat flux increased when short grass and tall grass were replaced dry land crops, as well as when dry land crops were replaced by irrigated crops.     

21世纪初青藏高原感热年代际增强对中国东部季风雨带关键区夏季降水年代际转折的影响

基于中国气象局提供的气象站点月值资料,NOAA、CMAP降水格点月值资料,NDVI卫星资料及再分析资料,利用统计方法分析了1961-2014年青藏高原感热与中国东部季风雨带关键区夏季降水的年代际变化,并根据热动力平衡方程结合CESM模式试验解释了21世纪初高原感热异常对关键区夏季降水的影响机理.结果表明:21世纪初,黄淮、江淮地区降水增加,而长江以南地区降水减少.同时,高原感热也发生年代际增强,当春季感热增强后,大气热能上传导致夏季高原近地面产生气旋性环流异常,大气辐合;高层产生反气旋性环流异常,大气辐散.黄淮、江淮地区在对流层中低层受异常偏南风控制,高层受高原上空的大尺度反气旋环流影响产生异常偏北风.此外,高原感热增强通过影响黄淮、江淮地区产生暖平流输送和非绝热加热正异常,该区域产生异常的上升运动,降水量增加.长江以南地区在对流层中低层存在一个异常的反气性环流,有来自海洋的冷平流输送,同时大气非绝热加热在该地区为负异常,产生异常的下沉运动,降水量减少.模式敏感性试验的结果证实了当高原感热发生年代际增强,黄淮、江淮地区水平温度平流及非绝热加热为正异常,而在华南地区为负异常,从而导致黄淮、江淮地区大气上升运动增强,降水增加;而华南地区下沉运动增强,降水减少.     

Prediction of Chinese Loess Plateau summer rainfall using Pacific Ocean spring sea surface temperature

The Loess Plateau in China constitutes an important source area for both water and sediments to the Yellow River. Thus, improved prediction techniques of rainfall may lead to better estimation of discharge and sediment content for the Yellow River. Consequently, the objective of this study was to establish better links between rainfall of the Loess Plateau in China and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. Results showed that there is a strong lagged correlation between and SST and rainfall. The SST for Micronesia and areas south of the Aleutian Islands showed significant correlations (s.f. < 0·001; 99·9%) with rainfall over the dryer region of the Loess Plateau for a lag of 4 to 6 months. The SST over the equator on the east Pacific Ocean also showed significant negative correlation with rainfall. Low and middle latitude areas (S10–20° and around 30° ) of the south‐east Pacific Ocean displayed significant positive and negative correlation with rainfall on the semiarid Loess Plateau. The differenced SST values (positive SST minus negative SST) increased these correlations with rainfall. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to predict summer rainfall from the differenced SST during the spring period. The correlation between predicted and observed monthly rainfall was in general larger than 0·7. This indicates that major annual rainfall (during summer season) can be predicted with good accuracy using the suggested approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡空间分布及背景场特征

本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套-华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈"正负正"波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北.     

Relationship between equatorial pressure oscillations and tropical cyclones landing over China

With daily reanalysis data by NCEP/NCAR and data of tropical cyclones landing over China from 1949 to 2005, the variation of low-frequency oscillations of equatorial pressure and their relationship with tropical cyclones landing over China in the summer half of the years (June through October) are studied for the 57 years, using spectral analysis and correlation analysis. The results show that the summertime equatorial pressure is mainly of periodic oscillations of 5―7 days and 10―30 days and the interannual variation of the intensity of its quasi-biweekly oscillation is significantly positive correlation with the number of tropical cyclones landing over China. The quasi-biweekly oscillation is filtered from daily equatorial pressure in May―November over the 57 years with inverse wavelet transform and the probability for tropical cyclones landing on coastal China within four days before and after the oscillatory valleys of quasi-biweekly pressure at the equator is 59.7% and 73.0% for June to October and July to September respectively. The model of atmospheric circulation for quasi-biweekly oscillatory valleys of equatorial pressure in association with or without tropical cyclones landing over China in July―September is set up with the composite analysis method. When the valleys are associated with (without) landfall, zonal (meridional) circulation prevails in the mid and high latitudes of the Eastern Hemisphere, the high pressure ridge is weak (strong) near the Sea of Okhotsk, the westerly zone is northward (southward), the subtropical high is westward (eastward) in location and strong (weak) in intensity, the cross-equatorial flow is strong (weak) in southeast Asia, Southwest Monsoon is strong (weak) and stronger (weaker) while in the valleys of pressure, being favorable (unfavorable) for tropical cyclones landing over China. The atmospheric circulation model for oscillatory valleys of biweekly equatorial pressure in association with (without) tropical cyclones landing over China, which can reflect the difference of atmospheric circulation between them, is beneficial to medium-term forecasts of tropical cyclones landing over China.     

Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia

The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation pattern of Istanbul from the Landsat data and the relationship with meteorological parameters

This paper discusses the preliminary results of a study on the vegetation pattern and its relationship with meteorological parameters in and around Istanbul. The study covers an area of over 6800 km² consisting of urban and suburban centers, and uses the visible and near-infrared bands of Landsat. The spatial variation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and meteorological parameters such as sensible heat flux, momentum flux, relative humidity, moist static energy, rainfall rate and temperature have been investigated based on observations in ten stations in the European (Thracian) and Anatolian parts of Istanbul. NDVI values have been evaluated from the Landsat data for a single day, viz. 24 October 1986, using ERDAS in ten different classes. The simultaneous spatial variations of sensible heat and momentum fluxes have been computed from the wind and temperature profiles using the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The static energy variations are based on the surface meteorological observations. There is very good correlation between NDVI and rainfall rate. Good correlation also exists between: NDVI and relative humidity; NDVI, sensible heat flux and relative humidity; NDVI, momentum flux and emissivity; and NDVI, sensible heat flux and emissivity. The study suggests that the momentum flux has only marginal impact on NDVI. Due to rapid urbanization, the coastal belt is characterized by reduced NDVI compared to the interior areas, suggesting that thermodynamic discontinuities considerably influence the vegetation pattern. This study is useful for the investigation of small-scale circulation models, especially in urban and suburban areas where differential heating leads to the formation of heat islands. In the long run, such studies on a global scale are vital to gain accurate, timely information on the distribution of vegetation on the earth’s surface. This may lead to an understanding of how changes in land cover affect phenomena as diverse as the atmospheric CO² concentrations, the hydrological cycle and the energy balance at the surface-atmosphere interface.     

Precipitable water conversion rates over the Qinghai‐Xizang (Tibet) Plateau: changing characteristics with global warming

In this article, the trends and variability of precipitation and precipitable water (PW) over the Qinghai‐Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP) (1970–2009) were analysed by using ERA‐40 (The European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40 years Re‐analysis) and NCEP (The National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR reanalyses data and the ground observed precipitation data from 60 sites. The results showed that the precipitation over the QXP had an overall increasing trend; however, a slight decreasing trend was observed over the southeast. This decreasing precipitation trend might be related to the South Asia monsoon degradation. Since 1970, a decreasing PW trend has occurred over the QXP in which the southeast is the most significant region. Because of the rising temperatures in the QXP, a remarkable PW conversion rate (PWCR) increase of 0.87% per decade has occurred over the past 40 years. Because of its steep terrain, the PWCR in the middle eastern region of the QXP increased faster than that of the other regions. The mean PWCR in the wet southern region of the QXP was higher than that of the dry northern region, which was higher in the winter than that in the summer. Although much precipitation occurred in the summer, in the wet regions, the PWCR was higher in the winter than in the summer. The PWCR peak in the wet and dry regions occurred during the precipitation‐short and precipitation‐sufficient seasons, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the role of the snowpack in generating water available for run‐off during rain‐on‐snow events from snow pillow records

Rain‐on‐snow events have generated major floods around the world, particularly in coastal, mountainous regions. Most previous studies focused on a limited number of major rain‐on‐snow events or were based primarily on model results, largely due to a lack of long‐term records from lysimeters or other instrumentation for quantifying event water balances. In this analysis, we used records from five automated snow pillow sites in south coastal British Columbia, Canada, to reconstruct event water balances for 286 rain‐on‐snow events over a 10‐year period. For large rain‐on‐snow events (event rainfall >40 mm), snowmelt enhanced the production of water available for run‐off (WAR) by approximately 25% over rainfall alone. For smaller events, a range of antecedent and meteorological factors influenced WAR generation, particularly the antecedent liquid water content of the snowpack. Most large events were associated with atmospheric rivers. Rainfall dominated WAR generation during autumn and winter events, whereas snowmelt dominated during spring and summer events. In the majority of events, the sensible heat of rain contributed less than 10% of the total energy consumed by snowmelt. This analysis illustrated the importance of understanding the amount of rainfall occurring at high elevations during rain‐on‐snow events in mountainous regions.     

Water and heat fluxes above a lowland dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia

We measured the fluxes of sensible and latent heat between a low‐land dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia and the atmosphere. No clear seasonal or interannual changes in latent heat flux were found from 2003 to 2005, while sensible heat flux sometimes fluctuated depending on the fluctuation of incoming radiation between wet and dry seasons. The evapotranspiration rates averaged for the period between 2003 and 2005 were 2·77 and 3·61 mm day^?1 using eddy covariance data without and with an energy balance correction, respectively. Average precipitation was 4·74 mm day^?1. Midday surface conductance decreased with an increasing atmospheric water vapour pressure deficit and thus restricted the excess water loss on sunny days in the dry season. However, the relationship between the surface conductance and vapour pressure deficit did not significantly decline with an increase in volumetric soil water content even during a period of extremely low rainfall. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

巢湖对冬季陆面辐射和热量过程的影响

从物理气候学的观点出发,分析了湖泊对水体和陆地辐射平衡和热量平衡各分量的影响。以巢湖地区冬季观测资料为例,揭示了在晴稳天气湖陆风环流对陆面显热输送的影响,以及在冷平流天气,湖泊对上下风方陆面显热输送的影响。     

TRMM多卫星降水分析资料揭示的青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水日变化

本文在对比了TRMM多卫星降水分析TMPA(TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis)资料和中国643个气象站观测降水量时空分布的基础上,采用2002~2006年夏季TMPA每小时降水量资料,用合成分析和谐波分析的方法研究了青藏高原及其周边地区夏季降水量和降水频率的日变化特征.分析结果表明,平均降水量和降水频率日变化谐波分析的标准振幅显示出青藏高原地区夏季降水具有显著的日变化特征,高原中部地区对流活动日变化最强,其次是高原西南方向的印度半岛地区.谐波分析的位相表明降水量和降水频率最大值出现的时间具有选择性,高原中部降水量最大值多集中在傍晚前后,高原以东的四川盆地通常在夜晚,尤其是在后半夜达到最大值,而长江上游和中下游地区对流活动则分别在上午和下午最为活跃.青藏高原以东地区降水量日变化的位相明显不同于其他陆地地区,也不同于高原中部,具有自西向东传播的信号,四川盆地的夜雨现象可能是高原地区对流活动日变化自西向东传播的结果.     

Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach

A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of 21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049) and Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences     

Comparison of hypoxia among four river-dominated ocean margins: The Changjiang (Yangtze), Mississippi,Pearl, and Rhône rivers

We examined the occurrence of seasonal hypoxia (O₂<2 mg l⁻¹) in the bottom waters of four river-dominated ocean margins (off the Changjiang, Mississippi, Pearl and Rhône Rivers) and compared the processes leading to the depletion of oxygen. Consumption of oxygen in bottom waters is linked to biological oxygen demand fueled by organic matter from primary production in the nutrient-rich river plume and perhaps terrigenous inputs. Hypoxia occurs when this consumption exceeds replenishment by diffusion, turbulent mixing or lateral advection of oxygenated water. The margins off the Mississippi and Changjiang are affected the most by summer hypoxia, while the margins off the Rhône and the Pearl rivers systems are less affected, although nutrient concentrations in the river water are very similar in the four systems. Spring and summer primary production is high overall for the shelves adjacent to the Mississippi, Changjiang and Pearl (1–10 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), and lower off the Rhône River (<1 g C m⁻² d⁻¹), which could be one of the reasons of the absence of hypoxia on the Rhône shelf. The residence time of the bottom water is also related to the occurrence of hypoxia, with the Mississippi margin showing a long residence time and frequent occurrences of hypoxia during summer over very large spatial scales, whereas the East China Sea (ECS)/Changjiang displays hypoxia less regularly due to a shorter residence time of the bottom water. Physical stratification plays an important role with both the Changjiang and Mississippi shelf showing strong thermohaline stratification during summer over extended periods of time, whereas summer stratification is less prominent for the Pearl and Rhône partly due to the wind effect on mixing. The shape of the shelf is the last important factor since hypoxia occurs at intermediate depths (between 5 and 50 m) on broad shelves (Gulf of Mexico and ECS). Shallow estuaries with low residence time such as the Pearl River estuary during the summer wet season when mixing and flushing are dominant features, or deeper shelves, such as the Gulf of Lion off the Rhône show little or no hypoxia.     

Evolution of Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure Associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon 2010 in a Regional Climate Model

The 2010 boreal summer marked a worldwide abnormal climate. An unprecedented heat wave struck East Asia in July and August 2010. In addition to this, the tropical Indian Ocean was abnormally warm during the summer of 2010. Several heavy rainfall events and associated floods were also reported in the Indian monsoon region. During the season, the monsoon trough (an east–west elongated area of low pressure) was mostly located south of its normal position and monsoon low pressure systems moved south of their normal tracks. This resulted in an uneven spatial distribution with above-normal rainfall over peninsular and Northwest India, and deficient rainfall over central and northeastern parts of India, thus prediction (and simulation) of such anomalous climatic summer season is important. In this context, evolution of vertical moist thermodynamic structure associated with Indian summer monsoon 2010 is studied using regional climate model, reanalysis and satellite observations. This synergised approach is the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The model-simulated fields (pressure, temperature, winds and precipitation) are comparable with the respective in situ and reanalysis fields, both in intensity and geographical distribution. The correlation coefficient between model and observed precipitation is 0.5 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 4.8 mm day^?1. Inter-comparison of model-simulated fields with satellite observations reveals that the midtropospheric temperature [Water vapour mixing ratio (WVMR)] has RMSE of 0.5 K (1.6 g kg^?1), whereas the surface temperature (WVMR) has RMSE of 3.4 K (2.2 g kg^?1). Similarly, temporal evolution of vertical structure of temperature with rainfall over central Indian region reveals that the baroclinic nature of monsoon is simulated by the model. The midtropospheric warming associated with rainfall is captured by the model, whereas the model failed to capture the surface response to high and low rainfall events. The model has strong water vapour loading in the whole troposphere, but weaker coherent response with rainfall compared to observations. Thus, strong water vapour loading and overestimation of rainfall are reported in the model. This study put forward that the discrepancy in the model-simulated structure may be reduced by assimilation of satellite observations.     

中国水旱灾害的有序网络结构特征及其预测研究

信息有序性和可公度性是自然界的一种秩序,具有广泛的普适意义.历史资料表明,中国水旱灾害具有显著的有序性. 基于翁文波的信息预测理论,本文详细分析讨论了中国天灾时间序列的可公度信息系的特性,同时相应构建了长江、黄河历史大洪水以及全国大旱灾信息有序网络结构,并据此进行预测研究.结果表明：（1）我国长江流域大洪灾其可公度信息系的网状结构由基本周期60a、22a、38a、53a、82a所组成, 其中干支60a周期最具重要意义,它是天灾时序的主链.太阳活动的22a、11a等周期,也对长江洪涝灾害的节律产生重要影响.略去太久远的预测,未来长江大洪灾可能发生在2007～2008、2013、2020-2021年前后.（2）黄河大洪水也具有显著的可公度性,50a、22a～23a为其主要周期.未来黄河大洪水可能发生在2004、2014、2021、2027年前后.（3）未来我国大旱年份可能发生在2010、2016和2021～2022年前后.（4）宇宙是统一的整体. 日、地、月运行与天灾活动相互联系,相互依存和影响. 天灾的发生可视为地球内部因素和外部天文因素非线性作用的结果.巨洪、大旱更是多因强化综合作用的结果. 重大天灾时间序列所呈现的网络结构特性可能是其形成的一种机制. 因此,把巨灾放在天地生大系统范围内开展多学科的综合研究,这无疑是一条必由之路.（5）利用天灾时序的网络结构进行分析和中长期预测,它避免了传统数学分析的繁琐和数量的不可识别性,为我国防灾减灾提供了一种直观、便捷而有效的新方法.     

Reevaluation of mixing among multiple water masses in the shelf: An example from the East China Sea

East China Sea (ECS) is bounded by the continent where the fourth largest river of Changjiang discharges large amounts of freshwater to the west and by the Kuroshio in the East and connected to the South China Sea via Taiwan Strait, therefore water characteristics are very complex and undergo great seasonal changes. The dominant source waters in the ECS are found to be Kuroshio Surface Water (KSW), Kuroshio Sub-surface Water (KSSW), Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW), and Taiwan Strait Warm Water (TSWW). Optimum multiparameter analysis (OMP) using temperature, salinity and ²²⁶Ra were applied to quantify the contribution of individual source water to the surface water of the ECS in summer. The successful application of radium isotope in OMP analysis demonstrates the usefulness of ²²⁶Ra in the discrimination of mixing among multiple water sources. In 1987, one interesting phenomenon was that the KSSW entered the surface with the upwelling at the margin of continental shelf, and affected the coastal water obviously. In 1999, the TSWW extended northward continuously up to the Changjiang Estuary.