山东乳山震群遗漏地震检测及震源区活动特征分析

对震群活动特征的深入研究可以为区域地震危险性分析和地震活动趋势判断提供有效的依据,但受台网布局和震群位置的影响,地震目录中往往会遗漏一些地震,而地震目录的完整性将会影响震群活动特征分析的可靠性。因此,本文利用基于GPU加速的模板匹配方法对山东乳山震群2014年5月至2015年6月期间固定台站和流动台阵记录的连续波形进行扫描,检测出7500个地震事件,为台网目录的4倍,使完备震级从1.0级降至0.2级。基于完备地震目录,利用传染型余震序列(ETAS)模型分析了乳山震群的活动特征。ETAS模型中的随机成分可以作为外力作用触发地震的指标。研究结果表明,乳山震群外力触发的地震所占比例较大,结合前人研究结果,初步推测流体作用可能是外力因素之一,其在乳山震群的发展过程中起一定的作用,但不同时期外力作用对微震活动的触发强度不同。     

利用广义叠加反演方法估算长岛震群应力降

地震应力降是表征震源特性的一个重要参数,通常由震源谱计算得到.但如何从大量地震的观测谱中校正路径和台站效应,准确地分离出震源谱并计算应力降,仍是一个难题.本文采用广义叠加反演方法通过分阶段叠加从观测谱中迭代分离出震源项、台站项和路径项,并利用分震级的叠加震源项与理论谱的拟合得到经验格林函数,再利用由经验格林函数校正后的真实震源谱估算出应力降.该方法不需要知道仪器响应、场地响应和传播路径上的衰减系数,并且不用事先假设震源具有自相似的恒应力降特征,计算效率很高,适用于反演大量地震的震源参数.我们将广义叠加反演方法应用于长岛震群,利用S波谱估算了1431个ML≥1.0地震的应力降.结果表明,广义叠加反演方法获得的震源参数和用传统方法得到的结果一致;长岛震群地震的应力降较小(中值是0.3 MPa),变化范围很大(0.009～3.04MPa之间),属于低应力降事件集;同时应力降中值随地震矩增大而增大,偏离了自相似理论.应力降空间变化不均匀,高应力降事件主要集中在震群的端部(NW端),到最近断层距离的依赖性不强,在9、10km处的应力降中值略高于其他深度.根据应力降的变化特征和区域构造条件,我们推测地下流体在长岛震群的活动中起到一定的作用.     

2014年金寨M_L3.9震群序列遗漏地震检测及发震构造分析

针对2014年8月—2015年1月安徽金寨发生的M_L3.9震群,利用匹配滤波技术补充台网目录遗漏的地震事件,再利用波形互相关震相检测技术标定P波和S波到时,进一步采用双差定位方法对震群进行重定位,结合震源机制解等分析此次震群活动可能的发震构造。计算结果显示,通过互相关扫描检测到1376个地震台网常规分析遗漏的地震,数量约为台网目录给出的585个事件的2.35倍。检测到的遗漏地震震级估算为M_L0～2.3,通过震级-频次统计分析,加入遗漏地震后地震目录的完整性在M_L0～1.5范围内有较明显的改善。重定位后地震走时残差更小,水平位置更集中,沿NNE向断裂F和NW向青山-晓天断裂呈现近直立的条带状分布。结合地质构造、震源机制解和水库因素,推测2014年金寨M_L3.9震群可能是由周边水库水下渗引起NW向青山-晓天断裂与NNE向断裂F慢滑动而触发的。     

Role of crustal fluids in triggering the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms: Just what we know (a review)

We summarise the results of seismological studies related to triggering mechanisms, driving forces and source processes of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms with the aim to disclose the role of crustal fluids in the preparation, triggering and governing of the swarms. We present basic characteristics distinguishing earthquake swarms from tectonic mainshock-aftershock sequences and introduce existing earthquakes swarm models. From the statistical characteristics and time-space distribution of the foci we infer that self-organization is a peculiarity of West Bohemia/Vogtland swarms. We discuss possible causes of the foci migration in these swarms from the viewpoint of co-seismic and/or post-seismic stress changes and diffusion of the pressurized fluids, and we summarize hitherto published models of triggering the 2000-swarm. Attention is paid to the source mechanisms, particularly to their non-shear components. We consider possible causes of different source mechanisms of the 1997-and 2000-swarms and infer that pure shear processes controlled solely by the regional tectonic stress prevail in them, and that additional tensile forces may appear only at unfavourably oriented faults. On data from the fluid injection experiment at the HDR site Soultz (Alsace), we also show that earthquakes triggered by fluids can represent purely shear processes. Thus we conclude that increased pore pressure of crustal fluids in the region plays a key role in bringing the faults from the subcritical to critical state. The swarm activities are mainly driven by stress changes due to co-seismic and post-seismic slips, which considerably depend on the frictional conditions at the fault; crustal fluids keep the fault in a critical state. An open question still remains the cause of the repeatedly observed almost simultaneous occurrence of seismic activity in different focal zones in a wider area of West Bohemia/Vogtland. The analysis of the space-time relations of seismicity in the area between 1991 and 2007 revealed that during a significant part of this time span the seismicity was switching among distant focal zones. This indicates a common triggering force which might be the effect of an increase of crustal-fluid pore-pressure affecting a wider epicentral region.     

地震的"序列归属"问题与ETAS模型——以唐山序列为例

历史上发生过强震地区的余震活动可能持续较长时间,而余震序列在何时可被看作正常的"背景地震活动",即"序列归属"问题在地球动力学和地震物理中有重要意义.时-空"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型可分离"背景"地震和"丛集"地震,并用概率形式表示作为相应事件的可能性,为考察此问题提供了可能.本文以1976年唐山M_S7.8地震序列为例,对唐山地区1970年以来的M_L4.0以上地震进行了时-空ETAS模型拟合,并以2010年以来发生的3次M_S4.0以上地震为例讨论了它们的"序列归属"问题.研究结果显示,3次M_S4.0以上地震的背景地震概率分别为0.72、0.88和0.76,表明它们作为1976年唐山M_S7.8的余震的可能性较低,更可能为背景地震.     

Rushan earthquake swarm in eastern China and its indications of fluid-triggered rupture

An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole swarm were recorded at the nearest station, RSH, which is located about 12 km from the epicenter. We examine the statistical characteristics of the Rushan swarm in this paper using RSH station data to assess the arrival time difference, \(t_{{{\text{S}} \,-\, {\text{P}}}}\), of Pg and Sg phases. A temporary network comprising 18 seismometers was set up on May 6, 2014, within the area of the epicenter; based on the data from this network and use of the double difference method, we determine precise hypocenter locations. As the distribution of relocated sources reveals migration of seismic activity, we applied the mean-shift cluster method to perform clustering analysis on relocated catalogs. The results of this study show that there were at least 16 clusters of seismic activities between May 6, 2014, and June 30, 2014, and that each was characterized by a hypocenter spreading process. We estimated the hydraulic diffusivity, D, of each cluster using envelope curve fitting; the results show that D values range between 1.2 and 3.5 m²/d and that approximate values for clusters on the edge of the source area are lower than those within the central area. We utilize an epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to separate external triggered events from self-excited aftershocks within the Rushan swarm. The estimated parameters for this model suggest that α = 1.156, equivalent to sequences induced by fluid-injection, and that the forcing rate (μ) implies just 0.15 events per day. These estimates indicate that around 3% of the events within the swarm were externally triggered. The fact that variation in μ is synchronous with swarm activity implies that pulses in fluid pressure likely drove this series of earthquakes.     

重庆地区小地震目录完整性分析

根据重庆台网建设的时间阶段性,在对不同震级下限地震频度时间特征分析的基础上,研究了重庆地区不同时段的G-R关系和震级分布特征,并运用z检验方法对不同时段地震目录差异的显著性进行了分析,进而评估了重庆地区1970年以来不同时段的地震目录完整性,为区域地震活动性研究中地震目录的合理运用提供参考依据。     

成组中强震前后动态小震的时空活动特征

分析了进入活跃时段以来,新疆及邻近地区自１９９５年３月１９日和硕Ｍｓ５．０地震后,相继发生的１２次Ｍｓ≥４．７地震前后调制小震和动态小震的时空活动特征,据此提出了孕系统失稳模式;     

2015年河北滦县震群发震机理分析

震群发震机理研究是近年来地震学研究的热点之一,其中基于观测现象对不同发震机理模型的分析和讨论是研究焦点.本文以2015年河北滦县震群为研究对象,首先通过模板匹配方法检测震群活动期间目录遗漏地震事件,得到更为完整的地震目录.再通过波形互相关震相检测技术标定地震事件在记录台站的震相到时,依据标定的震相到时,利用双差定位方法对震群进行精定位,基于地震精定位结果分析震群的震中扩展特征.最后通过波形互相关系数和破裂面重合程度检测震群中是否存在重复地震活动.通过计算共检测到目录遗漏地震事件103个.地震精定位结果显示发震构造为北东向断层,震中扩展表现出迁移速率先快后慢的两阶段线性扩展特征.震群活动期间共检测到两组重复地震活动,其中第一组发生在震中扩展的第一阶段,第二组发生在震中扩展的第二阶段.在三种常见的震群发震机理模型——级联触发模型、断层慢滑动模型和流体侵入模型中,断层慢滑动模型能够解释我们观测到的重复地震活动和震中线性扩展现象,因此认为此次滦县震群活动可能伴随断层的慢滑动,断层慢滑动可能对滦县震群的触发和持续活动起到一定作用.     

The Kangding earthquake swarm of November, 2014

There was an earthquake swarm of two major events of MS6.3 and MS5.8 on the Xianshuihe fault in November, 2014. The two major earthquakes are both strike-slip events with aftershock zone along NW direction.We have analyzed the characteristics of this earthquake sequence. The b value and the h value show the significant variations in different periods before and after the MS5.8earthquake. Based on the data of historical earthquakes, we also illustrated the moderate-strong seismic activity on the Xianshuihe fault. The Kangding earthquake swarm manifests the seismic activity on Xianshuihe fault may be in the late seismic active period. The occurrence of the Kangding earthquake may be an adjustment of the strong earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault. The Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the historical earthquakes were also given in this article. The results indicate that the earthquake swarm was encouraged by the historical earthquakes since1893, especially by the MS7.5 Kangding earthquake in1955. The Coulomb failure stress changes also shows the subsequent MS5.8 earthquake was triggered by the MS6.3earthquake.     

震群时空演化成因与强震预报

以综合震源模式为基础,研究了强震发生前震群的时空演化特征和强震的位置预报,由震 生时间与外因的相关性探讨了大震的逼近程度,整个研讨围绕我国的某些震例进行。研究结果表明,物理模式对理解震群的成因,进行地震预报有要的指导意义。     

地震序列早期参数估计和余震概率预测中截止震级Mc的影响：以2013年甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震为例

针对“时空传染型余震序列”（英文简称ETAS）模型在地震序列参数的早期特征和余震短期概率预测研究中的应用问题,重点考察了不同截止震级M_c选取对结果的影响.以甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震序列的震后1.677天内的早期阶段为例,考察了ETAS模型和修正的Omori-Utsu公式的适用性问题,发现ETAS模型AIC值在各截止震级M_c下均小于修正的Omori-Utsu公式的结果,表明其适用效果更好.设定M_c=M_L1.0,1.1,…,2.5,分别考察了ETAS模型中α值和p值的稳定性,并与2013年芦山7.0级地震序列进行了对比.结果表明,M_c对α值的影响相对较小,p值影响较大.此外,对基于ETAS模型和“瘦化算法”的余震短期概率预测结果进行了N-test检验,结果表明M_c的设定对余震短期概率预测影响较大,对甘肃岷县—漳县6.6级地震,仅当M_c=M_L1.0或M_L1.1时可获得较好的预测结果.由此,在真正的“向前”的预测实践中,需要首先考察不同的M_c下的余震预测效果.     

A probabilistic approach for the classification of earthquakes as ��triggered�� or ��not triggered��

The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ??Anticipated?? earthquakes are generally called ??triggered??; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M?=?6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tj?rnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3?weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes?? theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90?%. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.     

2013年河北赞皇小震群活动特征及其指示意义

河北省数字地震台网在2013年5月19日至7月15日记录到河北赞皇县发生震群活动,ML-0.9级以上地震229次。震群附近30km之内之前没有发生过5级以上地震,1966年邢台7.2级地震区呈北北东向分布,在其南部存在北西向分支,抵达赞皇附近,发生过少量ML1~2级小震。与较为平静的地震活动背景相比,赞皇震群尤为突出。通过分析震级—频度关系,震群呈现低b值特征;利用振幅比法反演震群ML2级以上11个基本一致的震源机制解,并进一步反演震源区应力场,结果与华北构造应力场完全吻合。结果显示,震群呈北北东方向分布,震源机制也有相应的节面对应,大多数倾向北西西,表明震群为右旋走向滑动。同时,低b值和震源机制一致属于震兆现象,应注意加强赞皇附近区域的震情跟踪研究。     

The fluid-driven tectonic swarm of Aysen Fjord,Chile (2007) associated with two earthquakes (Mw=6.1 and Mw=6.2) within the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone

A seismic swarm of more than 7200 earthquakes occurred in Aysen Fjord, southern Chile, from January to June 2007. It started suddenly on 23 January 2007 with an earthquake of magnitude Mw=5.3, followed by five earthquakes with magnitudes increasing from Mw=5.2 to 6.2 within three months. Two large earthquakes of magnitudes Mw=6.1 and 6.2 occurred on 02 and 21 April 2007, respectively. The latest earthquake generated landslides that induced a tsunami within the fjord, killing 10 people. This swarm has been examined using international seismic catalogues and seismicity located with a local seismic network; in particular its double tectonic and volcanic origin has been explored. All the focal mechanisms are compatible with the long- and short-term tectonics of the Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone, a major intra-arc fault system of the Patagonian fjord land. The space, time, and size distributions of these earthquakes, that occurred within an active volcanic area revealed by the presence of several Holocene monogenetic volcanoes, may be explained both by fluid-induced (magma and/or hydrothermal fluids) activity combined with tectonic activity. The co-existence of these two tectonic and volcanic phenomena is a good example of retroactive links between fluids and tectonic fractures.     

Connection between earthquakes and deep fluids revealed by magnetotelluric imaging in Songyuan,China

Songyuan is the most earthquake prone area in northeast China.Since 2006,earthquakes have occurred in the area in the form of swarms,with a maximum magnitude of M_L5.8.There is much controversy about the cause of the Songyuan earthquakes.We attempted to determine the cause using a three-dimensional electrical conductivity structure inverted from a regional network of magnetotelluric data in the Songyuan area.The L-BFGS inversion method was applied,with a fullimpedance tensor data set used as the inversion input.Combined with an evaluation of the earthquake locations,the resistivity model revealed a northeast-oriented hidden fault running through the Songyuan earthquake area(SEA),which was speculated to be the preexisting Fuyu-Zhaodong Fault(FZF).Our resistivity model also found an apparent lithospheric low-resistivity anomaly beneath the earthquake area,which breached the high-resistivity lithospheric mantle and stalled at the base of the crust.A petrophysical analysis showed that this lower crustal low-resistivity anomaly was most likely attributed to hydrated partial melting,which could release water into the lower crust during later magma emplacements.While weakening the strength of the FZF,these ascending fluids also increased the pore pressure in the fault,further reducing the shear strength of the fault.Shear stress action(a fault strike component of the east-west regional compress),together with possible near-surface disturbances,may drive the fault to slip and trigger the earthquakes in Songyuan.It is possible that the continuous replenishment of fluids from the deeper mantle forces the Songyuan earthquakes into the form of swarms.We infer that the Songyuan earthquakes could be attributed to a combination of preexisting faults,regional stress,and deep fluids associated with plate subduction,and near surface disturbances might induce the earthquakes in advance.The Songyuan earthquakes are inherently induced earthquakes,fed by deep fluids.     

暴雨触发局部地震活动的一个典型例子:2010年6月广西凌云—凤山交界3级震群活动

在前期严重干旱的背景下,2010年6月27～30日广西西北部出现大暴雨过程,大范围积水成涝.降雨量最大的凌云、凤山交界于6月28日17时开始出现密集的微震活动,形成显著的震群事件.自6月28日至7月15日共记录地震2739次,其中2～2.9级(ML,下同)41次,3级以上地震3次,最大为7月1日10时27分3.2级地震...     

A Review of Earthquake Statistics: Fault and Seismicity-Based Models, ETAS and BASS

There are two fundamentally different approaches to assessing the probabilistic risk of earthquake occurrence. The first is fault based. The statistical occurrence of earthquakes is determined for mapped faults. The applicable models are renewal models in that a tectonic loading of faults is included. The second approach is seismicity based. The risk of future earthquakes is based on the past seismicity in the region. These are also known as cluster models. An example of a cluster model is the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. In this paper we discuss an alternative branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model. In the BASS model an initial, or seed, earthquake is specified. The subsequent earthquakes are obtained from statistical distributions of magnitude, time, and location. The magnitude scaling is based on a combination of the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation and the modified Båth’s law for the scaling relation of aftershock magnitudes relative to the magnitude of the main earthquake. Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake times, and a modified form of Omori’s law specifies the distribution of earthquake locations. Unlike the ETAS model, the BASS model is fully self-similar, and is not sensitive to the low magnitude cutoff.     

MATCH AND LOCATE FOR SMALL EVENT DETECTION OF NINGXIA SHIZUISHAN EARTHQUAKE SWARM AND INVESTIGATION OF ITS SEISMOGENIC FAULT

In this paper, a new method for small event detection named Match & Locate(M&L)is used to detect and locate the small earthquakes that are missing in the catalogue of the February 28, 2014 Shizuishan M_L4.4 earthquake swarm. A total of 34 earthquakes were detected, which is nearly 3 times as much as the number(13)of earthquakes from Ningxia seismic network. The number of earthquake swarm sequence is greatly increased. Then, it provides the possibility for the fine study of the earthquake swarm activity and seismogenic fault. The best double couple solution of the main shock obtained by the cut and paste method is strike 354°, dip 70° and slip 166° for nodal plane I, and strike 89°, dip 77° and slip 21°for nodal plane Ⅱ. The main shock is a dextral strike-slip earthquake with a small amount of thrust component. And, the depth of the main shock is 7~8km, which is a shallow earthquake, derived from the results of the double difference relocation and the best fitting depth of focal mechanism. Together with the results of deep 3-D seismic tomography of the Yinchuan Basin, our results show that the main shock and the largest aftershock more likely occurred in the upper crust, and the rest of earthquakes mainly occurred at the bottom of sedimentary layer or on the top of the upper crust crystallization basement. We find some interesting phenomena on the pattern of time-space evolution of the earthquake swarm. The distribution of earthquake swarm is in the near north-south direction. Aftershocks are mainly concentrated in the north region of the main shock, which show an obvious trend of extending gradually from the south to the north. Also, the result shows the general trend of shallower focal depth with the development of aftershocks to the north. The results of distribution and depth profile of the earthquake swarm and the focal mechanism of the main shock all show that the sequence probably occurred in the fault at the east foot of Helan Mountain with an eastward dip and a larger dip angle. Surface projection image of the earthquake sequence shows that the epicenter distribution extends northward from the northern end of the fault. This may suggest that the deep part of the fault is likely to extend northward.