冰川均衡调整对东亚重力和海平面变化的影响

新的全球冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型RF3L20(β=0.4)+ICE-4G考虑了地幔黏滞度沿横向的变化,其黏滞度参数得到大地测量、历史相对海平面变化观测和地震剪切波层析模型的较好约束.本文利用该模型预测了东亚现今重力变化和海平面变化,根据当前末次冰川时空变化和黏滞度参考模型中下地幔下部黏滞度认识的差异,评估了预测的不确定性.结果表明,GIA对东亚地区重力场和海平面长期变化有显著的影响:例如,在哈尔滨、长春、泰安、蓟县、郑州、武汉等测站,GIA重力影响达几十纳伽,可用超导重力仪和未来原子重力仪观测出来;在东亚大陆GIA对GRACE监测的等效水柱长期变化的影响为3%~10%,其中青藏高原西部、华北和三峡地区的影响较大.在东海-太平洋区,GIA的相对影响高达20%~40%;GIA使东亚海域绝对海平面以0.27~0.37 mm/a的速率在长期下降,在黄海、东海卫星测高监测的绝对海平面长期变化中,GIA的相对影响分别达6.9%和7.5%;在58个验潮站,平均相对海平面长期上升速率为2.22 mm/a,GIA影响为-0.17 mm/a,其中14个测站GIA的影响达-0.3~-0.4 mm/a.本文GIA预测的结果,对在东亚地区发现弱的地球动力学过程信号、监测水质量长期变化、监测海平面长期变化和分析其机制,提供精密的改正模型.     

根据验潮记录研究中国海岸地壳构造变形

依据 4 8个验潮站记录 ,计算出相对海平面年均值长期变化速率 ,经全球气候型海平面变化因子校正 ,获得了中国海岸现代地壳构造变形速率。分析结果表明 ,中国海岸构造变形的平面和纵断面图象与海岸构造格局一致 :北方海岸大面积升降区比较完整 ,分界明显 ,表现出大范围块体运动特征 ;南方海岸比较复杂 ,升降差异变化快 ,呈现以上升为主、局部下沉的特征。在升降差异分界地区均有活动断裂通过 ,这些地区也是近海地震活动强烈地区     

冰盖消融的海平面指纹变化及其对GRACE监测结果的影响

全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显，直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡，以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应，研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响，借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research，CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05），结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数，反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布，并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化，结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势，变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a，由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低，最高可达约-0.6 cm·a^-1；而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一，导致西南极近海相对海平面下降，而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升，最高可达约0.2 cm·a^-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主，平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a^-1，部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚），高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外，本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响，经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%，建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时，应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.     

川西地区现今垂直地壳运动研究

地处川滇菱形活动地块中、北部的川西及邻区, 是青藏高原物质大规模东南方向运动的重要通道, 也是青藏高原上新世以来大幅隆起的重要延伸区和影响区. 利用川西及其邻区1970年至2006年的多期水准观测资料, 采用以相邻水准点间高差变化速率为观测值的垂直形变网平差方法, 获得了川西地区近30年来的长期地壳垂直运动速度场图像. 结果表明, 相对稳定的四川盆地, 川西地区现今仍处在差异性的快速隆升阶段, 其中: (1) 位于泸定、雅江之间的高尔寺山地区现今隆起速率为3.0~4.0 mm/a, 位于雅江、理塘之间的剪子弯山-卡子拉山地区的现今隆起速率为4.0~4.8 mm/a, 而位于理塘、中甸之间的沙鲁里山、大-小雪山地区, 其现今隆起速率为3.0~4.0 mm/a. (2) 位于鲜水河断裂带东南端的贡嘎山区, 其相对四川盆地的现今隆起速率至少为5.8 mm/a, 相对安宁河谷地的隆起速率也不小于3.0~4.0 mm/a, 贡嘎山隆升速率之大可与喜马拉雅山5~10 mm/a的隆起速率相媲美. (3) 大凉山地区的现今隆起变形主要集中在安宁河断裂带与大凉山断裂带之间的块体上, 相对四川盆地的隆起速率为2.5~3.0 mm/a. (4) 位于川滇菱形地块中部的丽江、永胜、攀枝花地区, 相对四川盆地表现为-2.0~-1.0 mm/a的下降运动, 其相对下降运动与GPS地壳水平运动所表现出的东西向拉张变形特征相一致. (5) 综合GPS、水准、大地电磁测深等观测资料分析认为, 川西地区尤其是贡嘎山脉的现今快速隆升运动, 可能与下地壳塑性流的受阻增厚密切相关, 而川滇菱形地块中南部的东西向拉张和下沉变形, 则可能与喜马拉雅东构造结地区下地壳塑性流的南东、南西向分叉运动有关.     

大地测量观测和相对海平面联合约束的冰川均衡调整模型

利用大地测量和历史相对海平面变化数据,结合地震剪切波层析模型,联合确定了新的末次冰期冰川均衡调整（GIA）模型,其中地幔黏滞度不仅沿径向而且沿横向变化.研究思路是,先尝试性地选择比例系数β,利用与地震剪切波速异常的线性关系,计算地幔黏滞度横向扰动,并与横向均匀的黏滞度参考模型叠加给出3D地幔黏滞度模型;再利用耦合拉普拉斯方程的有限元法算法进行GIA预测;然后,重复该过程,直到预测与观测之间的吻合满意为止.主要结论有：（1）给出了横向非均匀的地幔黏滞度模型（RF3L20(β=0.4)）,发现了黏滞度显著的横向非均匀性和其对GIA预测的显著影响,指出横向非均匀不完全是由热效应引起的,可能还与化学组分等其他因素有关,该模型可用于地幔动力学研究.（2）给出了全球现今多种GIA预测速率,可为板块运动、陆地水储量、海水质量变化和冰川冰雪质量非平衡监测提供重要的改正.     

山西中北部地区地壳垂直形变时空演化特征及与强震的关系

采用山西中北部地区2006期和2015期一等精密水准测量资料,利用经典动态平差方法,对区域近期地壳垂直形变时空演化特征进行了研究。结果表明:(1)山西中北部地区近期整体表现为山地隆升,盆地下沉的特点,以继承性运动为主,但局部也存在差异性。吕梁断块和太行断块表现为隆升,活动速率分别为2～8 mm/a和2～6 mm/a;山西断陷带的系列盆地表现出相对下沉,沉降速率为-3～-10 mm/a;(2)汶川地震显著影响了区域地壳垂直运动形变场。震前区域地壳运动表现为显著拉张特点,震后张性减弱,挤压增强;(3)大同—化稍营、呼和浩特和榆次—石家庄一带存在地壳垂直形变高梯度带,中长期尺度上存在地震危险性背景。     

东南沿海末次盛冰期古海平面标志与地震的关系──-100m以下最低海平面问题质疑

东南沿海末次盛冰期（２１～１４ｋａＢ．Ｐ，）滨海相沉积垂相分布多在海拔３８～－５０．８ｍ的范围内，以正向分布（海平面附近及以上）、正负向混合分布及负向（海平面以下）分布在断块交界区或其附近，是强震的主要发生地。在滨海相沉积垂向分布愈离散的区段，其地震活动性也愈强，本研究地区不存在末次盛冰期－１００ｍ以下的最低海平面，那些局部在外陆架海底发现的－１００ｍ以下的滨海相沉积，可能与地壳呈长趋势下沉作用有关     

基于GPS测站垂向速度的南极地区冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型分析

由于数据稀缺,南极冰川均衡调整(glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA)建模相比北美和北欧古冰盖区域更为困难,现有GIA模型在南极地区还存在较大的不确定性.空间大地测量技术不断发展和进步,为GIA建模提供了外部检核和新的约束.利用GAMIT/GLOBK10.5软件对南极及周边区域73个测站1996～2014年的GPS数据进行解算和平差,并考虑有色噪声估计其地壳垂向运动速度.为了研究不同因素对地壳垂向运动的影响,将GPS测站垂向速度与Argus等(2014)、Thomas等(2011)的GPS结果以及各GIA模型预测结果划分区域进行比较,主要包括南极半岛北部、龙尼-菲尔希纳冰架、阿蒙森海沿岸、罗斯冰架、埃里伯斯火山、西南极内陆、东南极沿海等七个区域,结果表明在南极半岛北部和阿蒙森海沿岸派恩艾兰湾地区存在现今冰雪负荷变化引起的显著地壳弹性抬升,在埃尔伯斯火山区域存在的显著下沉可能与其地下岩浆活动有关,东南极沿海测站垂向运动速度都不显著,其他区域的测站垂向运动主要受到GIA的影响.对文章GPS结果与各GIA模型的相关性和GIA模型的不确定性进行分析,结果表明ICE-6G(VM5a)模型与文章GPS结果的一致性最好,其次是Geruo13模型,而W12a和IJ05_R2系列模型与本文GPS结果一致性相对较差.虽然目前南极GIA模型相比以前版本的模型有了很大改进,但是南极地区GIA建模的状况仍然不容乐观:GIA模型相比北美地区不确定性偏大,在BENN等部分测站上存在较大不符值,在现今冰雪负荷变化显著地区由于弹性改正模型不确定性偏大而缺乏精确GPS约束.     

冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型研究进展

冰川均衡调整(GIA)是黏弹地球对末次冰期地表冰和海水负荷改变的响应,对地壳运动、海平面变化、地球重力场变化、地球旋转运动和应力状态等都有着重要的影响.介绍了目前国际上常见的几种冰川均衡调整(GIA)模型如ICE系列、Paulson07、Geruo13和IJ05系列、W12系列等,从数据来源、建模方法和应用方面对各模型进行了总结,对六种模型在南极地区的预测结果及不确定性进行了比较和分析,最后介绍了中国科学家在全球GIA研究和模型精化方面的重要进展和突出贡献.结果显示GIA模型之间的差别主要来自冰模型,三种冰模型较新的GIA模型ICE-6G_C(VM5a)、IJ05_R2和W12a在抬升峰值分布和东南极沿海大于内陆的量级分布上具有较好的一致性,但在平均量级上和下沉区域分布上仍存在较大的不确定性.随着数据源的扩展和建模方法的不断改进,未来的GIA模型将以更小更真实的不确定性用于地球科学相关领域.     

强震前海平面异常变化特征研究

使用渤海沿岸8个验潮站的海潮潮位观测资料,根据近海或沿岸地区强震前后海平面变化的实例,分析了海平面变化的前兆意义。资料证实,大部分近海大地震前局部海域存在着可以识别的海平面异常变化。通过周期分析方法和潮汐分析方法来消除各种周期及非周期因素的影响,可以显示出地壳垂直形变的变化,分析结果表明,渤海沿岸的海平面变化不仅具有丰富的地质构造活动信息,而且可能反映较大地震前后的地壳形变过程。提取海平面地壳垂直形变信息对较大地震的预报和与海洋有关灾害的预测有重要意义。     

Preliminary reconstruction of the desert and sandy land distributions in China since the last interglacial period

The desert and sandy land are the products of arid climate. The spatial distribution of modern deserts and sandy land in China and their relation to climate show following characteristics: arid and hyper-arid desert zones, at isohyet of less than 200 mm, are dominated by mobile dunes; semi-arid steppe and arid desert steppe with the precipitation between 200-400mm, are dominated by semi-fixed and fixed sand dunes; the precipitation of sub-humid forest grassland and humid forest zones with scattered fixed sand land is higher than 400 mm. With this as reference, in combination with considerable amount of paleoclimatic data in desert regions and adjacent regions, the distributions of desert and sandy land in China during the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum (LGM), and the Holocene megathermal, were preliminarily reconstructed. The results compared with that of today show that the distribution of desert and sandy land in China was greatly dwindled during last interglacial period, and the mobile dune area was about two-thirds of that of today's, but greatly expanded during LGM. However, the dwindling area of desert and sandy land in the Holocene megathermal was smaller than that in the last interglacial period. The forcing mechanism was mainly related to the changes of East Asian winter and summer monsoon, south-northward swing of the westerlies and the variations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau monsoon intensity caused by global climate changes during the cold and warm intervals since the last interglacial period.     

Preliminary reconstruction of the desert and sandy land distributions in China since the last interglacial period

The desert and sandy land are the products of arid climate. The spatial distribution of modern deserts and sandy land in China and their relation to climate show following characteristics: arid and hyper-arid desert zones, at isohyet of less than 200 mm, are dominated by mobile dunes; semi-arid steppe and arid desert steppe with the precipitation between 200–400 mm, are dominated by semi-fixed and fixed sand dunes; the precipitation of sub-humid forest grassland and humid forest zones with scattered fixed sand land is higher than 400 mm. With this as reference, in combination with considerable amount of paleoclimatic data in desert regions and adjacent regions, the distributions of desert and sandy land in China during the last interglacial period, the last glacial maximum (LGM), and the Holocene megathermal, were preliminarily reconstructed. The results compared with that of today show that the distribution of desert and sandy land in China was greatly dwindled during last interglacial period, and the mobile dune area was about two-thirds of that of today’s, but greatly expanded during LGM. However, the dwindling area of desert and sandy land in the Holocene megathermal was smaller than that in the last interglacial period. The forcing mechanism was mainly related to the changes of East Asian winter and summer monsoon, south-northward swing of the westerlies and the variations of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau monsoon intensity caused by global climate changes during the cold and warm intervals since the last interglacial period.     

Estimates of vertical crustal movements along the coast of Greece,based on mean sea level data

Mean annual sea level (MASL) data for 25 Greek stations were analyzed for the time period 1969–1982. The data from 4 of these were unacceptably poor, and the record of 3 stations showed unexplained step functions that were interpreted as errors. Relative MASL between stations showed crustal stability at 10 of the 18 useful stations. The standard deviation from the long-term average of these stations was ±1.8 cm. We conclude that if station records are carefully kept in this area crustal movements in excess of 5 cm can be detected by relative MASL. A comparison of MASL data with gravity changes measured in the Peloponnese and Central Greece suggests that vertical movements occurred along a gradient equal to or larger than the free air gradient. We conclude that the gravity network should be reoccupied frequently such that the non-tectonic effects to be determined from the probable observed gravity changes, and the tectonic vertical movements may be better understood. A co-seismic subsidence of about 5 cm is inferred to have taken place near Korinth during the 1981,M _s =6.8, earthquake, which occurred 20 km N of this tide gauge (Posidonia). During 2.5 years before the 1968 Thessaloniki,M _s =6.6, earthquake, sea level was lower than average suggesting possible crustal elevation of 3.6 cm at about 28 km epicentral distance. Because of the small amplitude of this change we are not certain that it represents crustal uplift. At station Myrina (on Limnos) a strong and consistent trend of subsidence accumulated a 15 cm change between 1975 and 1980. Chios showed a trend of emergence (total accumulation about +5 cm), while Volos showed a trend of subsidence (approximately ?5 cm total). Kefalinia appears to have subsided about 10 cm during the data period. The six stations along the Hellenic arc plate boundary showed nearly constant MASL, suggesting that crustal stability existed there during the last 14 years. We conclude that MASL data in Greece can be useful for understanding tectonic processes, especially if these data are gathered carefully and at numerous locations, and are cross-correlated to high precision repeat gravity measurements, and geodetic releveling. Also, MASL data on active volcanic islands have excellent potential for detecting uplift before future eruptions.     

The record of paleoclimatic change from stalagmites and the determination of termination II in the south of Guizhou Province,China

A high-resolution climate record from 163.00 kaBP to 113.80 kaBP has been obtained through TIMS-U series dating and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of the three large stalagmites from two caves in the south of Guizhou Province, China. The record of the oxygen isotopes from the stalagmites reveals that the undulation characteristics between the cooling event of the glacial period and the warming event of the interglacial period in the research area can compare well to those of ice cores, lake sediments, loess and deep sea sediments on the scale of ten-thousand years or millennium time scale. The climate undulation provided by the record of the stalagmites has a coherence with the global changes and a tele-connection to the paleoclimate changes in the north polar region. Our results suggest that the direct dynamics of paleo-monsoon circulation changes reflected in the record of the stalagmites might be caused by changes of the global ice volume, and in turn related to various factors, including the solar radiation strength at the mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the southern extension of the ice-rafted event in the North Atlantic, and changes of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature at the low-latitudes. Using °¹⁸O values, we have calculated the temperatures and the results show that the temperature difference between the penultimate glacial period (with an average temperature of 8.1°C, and a minimum temperature range from 0.65°C to-1.43°C at stage 6) and the last interglacial period (with an average temperature of 18.24°C at sub-stage 5e) was about 10°C. This temperature difference from the record of the stalagmites corresponds in general to the record temperature variation (about 10°C) of measured ice cores. The climate records from the three stalagmites in the two caves have shown that the circulation strength of the Asian summer monsoon and the winter monsoon in the penultimate glacial period and the last inter-glacial period had a clear change. With the TIMS-U series method, termination II of the penultimate glacial period has been precisely dated at an age of (129.28± 1.10) kaBP for the three stalagmites in the south of Guizhou Province, China. This borderline age represents the beginning of the last interglacial period or the boundary between the Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene, and corresponds to the beginning age of the last interglacial period shown by the ice cores and in the SPECMAP curve of the marine oxygen isotopes. The chronology determination of termination II is not only of stratigraphic and chronological significance, but also lays an important foundation for discussing the short time scales of climate oscillation and rapidly changing events of paleoclimate in the circulation region of the East Asian monsoon.     

Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by regional climate model

ClimateconditionsintheLastGlacialMaximum(LGM)wereremarkablydifferentfromthepresentones.LGMglobalmeantemperaturewas5℃-10℃dropbutprecipitationdecreasescommonly.LGMhasbecomethekeyphasetoreconstructtheearthenvironmentalfield,retrieveextremecoldclimatecondit…     

Spatial and temporal variations of subsidence of the East Pacific Rise (0–23°S)

The distributions of crustal depths as a function of age have been analysed for the southeast Pacific region, along the East Pacific Rise, between the Equator and the Easter microplate (23°S). Using age data and a new compilation of bathymetric data, subsidence rates (for both eastern and western flanks), asymmetry of subsidence and zero-age depths, are computed within flow-line corridors on the Nazca and Pacific plates. Variations of subsidence rates, axial depths and subsidence asymmetry are examined both in space (within corridors) and time (within several age intervals). The variability in these parameters along the strike of the East Pacific Rise is systematic and serves to define several orders of ridge segmentation. The largest variations of these parameters are correlated with the large-scale segmentation of the ridge axis (i.e. transform faults and very large overlapping spreading centres) and are interpreted as related to variations in mantle heterogeneities mainly dependent upon temperature. Smaller variations of subsidence parameters are correlated with second- (and sometimes third-) order segmentation of the ridge axis, which could be related to variations in axial magmatic supply. Across-strike variations of subsidence suggest the existence of small lateral temperature and density variations in the mantle. When analysing the slope of the distribution of depth versus square root of age within corridors, we have observed the existence of changes in the slope which occur at specific age limits. We have estimated the subsidence over different age ranges in order to determine the temporal evolution of subsidence parameters (rates and asymmetry). Such an analysis may inform on the past axial segmentation and on the persistence of axial discontinuities in time. A linear relationship between subsidence rates and axial depths is determined for each age range and suggests that shallower segments subside faster than deeper segments. Although a similar, statistically defined linear relationship exists for any mid-ocean spreading ridge (both for intermediate or fast–ultrafast spreading), the resultant slopes of this relationship vary from ocean to ocean and show that this relationship is not universal over all oceans.     

Evidence for natural fire and climate history since 37 ka BP in the northern part of the South China Sea

The history of natural fire since 37 kaBP and its relationship to climate for the northern part of the South China Sea are revealed from the statistic study of charcoal particles and associated pollen data from deep sea core 17940 (20° 07’N, 117° 23’E, 1 727 m in water depth). Our study indicates that, during the last glaciation, the concentration of charcoal and the ratio of con centration between charcoal and terrestrial pollen are much higher than that of the Holocene. This can be explained as the relatively high strength and frequency of natural fire during glaciation which is probably due to the drier climate; during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the substantial rising of the concentration of large and medium charcoal particles probably suggests the local source area of the natural fires, i.e. the exposed continental shelf; moreover, the correlation between charcoal concentration with different size and pollen percentage may elucidate different transport dynamics. During the glacial time, almost all the peak concentrations of small particles correspond with the peak pollen percentage ofArtemisia, an indicator of comparatively dry climate, while for large particles, their concentrations always lag behind small particles and thus change with pollen percentage of montane conifers implying relatively cold and humid climate. So, it is possible to assume that small particles reflect regional emissions under drier climate and were brought over by strengthened winter monsoon. When the climate became relatively humid, the increasing precipitation carried the large particles accumulated on continental shelf before under arid condition to the studied area.