The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra,Indonesia, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earth—quake of Ms=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

2022年门源MS6.9和2016年门源MS6.4地震序列比较分析

2022年1月8日青海省海北州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中距离2016年1月21日门源M_S6.4地震震中约33km,两次门源地震均发生在冷龙岭断裂附近,但在震源机制、主发震断层破裂过程及地震序列余震活动等方面显著不同。针对两次门源地震序列的比较分析,对研究冷龙岭断裂及其附近区域强震序列和余震衰减特征等具有重要研究意义。通过对比分析2022年门源M_S6.9地震和2016年门源M_S6.4地震余震的时空演化特征,发现二者在震源过程和断层破裂尺度上存在明显差异,前者发震断层破裂充分,震后能量释放充分,余震丰富且震级偏高;而后者发震断层未破裂至地表,余震震级水平偏低。综合分析两次门源地震序列表现出来的差异性,认为其可能与地震发震断层的破裂过程密切相关,且同时受到区域构造环境的影响。     

Gravity variation before Kunlun mountain pass western Ms=8.1 earthquake

The relation between the gravity variation features and Ms=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily,by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000.The results show that:1)Ms\8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass westem occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity‘s high negative variation;2)The Main tectonic deformation and emnergy accumulation before MS=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter;3)The range of gravity‘s high negative variation at east of the MS=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation;4)Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain‘s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.     

Variation of Q value before and after the 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning Province, M =5.4 earthquake on the basis of analysis on attenuation dispersion of P waves

A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q _m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q _m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q _m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q _m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q _m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q _m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q _m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q _m after the M=5.1 event is 204. Foundation item: State Key Project of Science and Technology during the Tenth Five-year Plan (2004BA601B01-03-01).     

InSAR数据约束的2021年5月21日云南漾濞MS6.4地震发震构造研究

运用Sentinel-1A卫星数据和D-InSAR技术,获取2021-05-21云南漾濞M_S6.4地震的同震形变场。结果显示,漾濞地震同震形变场长轴近NW展布升降轨形变场符号相反,视线向最大沉降量和抬升量为0.1 m。InSAR同震形变场反演的滑动分布主要集中在沿走向2～12 km,倾向1～9 km的范围内,最大滑动量0.35 m,发震断层长9.8 km、宽4 km,滑动量主要集中在地下3～6 km范围内,滑动角-146.7°。同震位移场及滑动分布模型反映本次地震为发震断层的右旋走滑事件,地震破裂未达到地表。断层模型反演结果显示,矩震级为M_W6.1,发震断层以北西走向右旋走滑运动为主,初步认为本次M_W6.1地震发震断裂可能是一条NW向的维西—乔后断裂西侧的隐伏次生断裂。     

Surface rupture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province

Based on the latest displacement of Huoshan piedmont fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Taigu fault obtained from the beginning of 1990‘s up to the present, the characteristics of distribution and displacement of surface rupture zone of the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, Shanxi Province are synthesized and discussed in the paper. If Taigu fault, Mianshan west-side fault and Huoshan piedmont fault were contemporarily active during the 1303 Hongtong M = 8 earthquake, the surface rupture zone would be 160 km long and could be divided into 3 segments, that is, the 50-km-long Huoshan piedmont fault segment, 35-km-long Mianshan west-side fault segment and 70-km-long Taigu fault segment, respectively. Among them, there exist 4 km and 8 km step regions. The surface rupture zone exhibits right-lateral features. The displacements of northern and central segments are respectively 6～7 m and the southern segment has the maximum displacement of 10 m. The single basin-boundary fault of Shanxi fault-depression system usually corresponds to M ≈ 7 earthquake, while this great earthquake (M = 8) broke through the obstacle between two basins. It shows that the surface rupture scale of great earthquake is changeable.     

Am improved source mechanism for the 1935 Timiskaming,Quebec earthquake from regional waveforms

The Timiskaming earthquake, which occurred near the Quebec-Ontario border at the northwest end of the Western Quebec seismic zone in 1935, is one of the five largest instrumentally recorded southeastern Canadian earthquakes. Previous studies of this earthquake concentrated on modeling teismograms recorded at regional distances, a better constrained focal mechanism is obtained. The waveforms indicate thrust faulting on a moderately dipping northwest striking plane at a depth of 10 km. TheM _w of 6.1 determined in this study is in good agreement with previous magnitude estimates (m _b 6.1,M _s 6.0, andm _bLg 6.2–6.3). The focal mechanism is similar to those of many recent small to moderate earthquakes in the region, and the inferred (from theP axis) acting stress of northeast compression is consistent with the overall eastern North American stress field. The Lake Timiskaming Rift Valley in which the earthquake occurred, comprises several northwest striking faults consistent with the strike of the 1935 event. Thus, the 1935 earthquake appears to be a result of faulting on the reactivated Timiskaming graben.     

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake

The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment. Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China.     

Source process of the 14 November 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M S=8.1 earthquake

Based on digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by 28 long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network, source process of the November 14, 2001 western Kunlun Mountain M _S=8.1 (M _W=7.8) earthquake is estimated by a new inversion method. The result shows that the earthquake is a very complex rupture event. The source rupture initiated at the hypocenter (35.95°N, 90.54°E, focal depth 10 km, by USGS NEIC), and propagated to the west at first. Then, in several minutes to a hundred minutes and over a large spatial range, several rupture growth points emerged in succession at the eastern end and in the central part of the finite fault. And then the source rupture propagated from these rupture growth points successively and, finally, stopped in the area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position (35.80°N, 92.91°E, focal depth 15 km, by Harvard CMT). The entire rupture lasted for 142 s, and the source process could be roughly separated into three stages: The first stage started at the 0 s and ended at the 52 s, lasting for 52 s and releasing approximately 24.4% of the total moment; The second stage started at the 55 s and ended at the 113 s, lasting for 58 s and releasing approximately 56.5% of the total moment; The third stage started at the 122 s and ended at the 142 s, lasting for 20 s and releasing approximately 19.1% of the total moment. The length of the ruptured fault plane is about 490 km. The maximum width of the ruptured fault plane is about 45 km. The rupture mainly occurred within 30 km in depth under the surface of the Earth. The average static slip in the underground rocky crust is about 1.2 m with the maximum static slip 3.6 m. The average static stress drop is about 5 MPa with the maximum static stress drop 18 MPa. The maximum static slip and the maximum stress drop occurred in an area within 50 km to the east of the centroid position. Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103066) and Foundation of the Seismic Pattern and Digital Seismic Data Application Research Office of Institute of Earthquake Science of the China Earthquake Administration.     

新10井水位对九寨沟M_S7.0、精河M_S6.6地震同震响应

基于新10井水位对九寨沟M_S7.0、精河M_S6.6地震的同震响应特征,分别利用水震波和潮汐分析法,反演得到了新10井水位在地震波作用期间和地震波作用前后含水层参数特征,探讨了2次地震引起的新10井同震响应变化机理。结果表明,新10井水位对九寨沟地震和精河地震具有不同的同震响应形态,利用水平流模型反演所得的新10井含水层渗透系数,在九寨沟地震时为61m/d,而在精河地震时为147m/d,表明地震波作用导致水平向的渗透性增强;利用垂向流模型反演得到的新10井含水层渗透系数,在2次地震之前约为49×10~(-5)m/d,而在地震之后约为18×10~(-5)m/d,表明地震波作用导致垂直向的渗透性减弱。因此,新10井水位的同震响应变化与地震波引起的含水层渗透率的改变有关。     

2021年青海玛多7.4级地震强震动记录及特征分析

2021年5月22日,青海省果洛州玛多县发生7.4级地震,中国强震动观测网络在主震中捕获16组强震动数据。对48条三分向加速度记录进行基线校正、滤波等常规处理,计算相应的地震动参数,发现位于断层破裂前向位置的63DAW台NS向记录的地震动速度波形具有长周期分量丰富的特征。分析6个典型台站的单自由度加速度反应谱,并与我国建筑抗震设计谱比较,分析此次地震的频谱特性。将实际观测到的PGA、PGV和S_a(T=0.1 s、T=1.0 s、T=2.0 s、T=5.0 s)与国内广泛使用的几种地震动预测模型对比,研究此次地震的影响场。通过分析S_a-S_d曲线,探讨此次地震靠近断层区域地面运动大位移与桥梁落梁震害间可能存在的关系。     

The November 14, 2001 west of Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake: An earthquake with unsaturated surface wave magnitude

Introduction According to the Rapid Earthquake Information Release of CNDSN (Department of Earth- quake Monitoring and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration, 2002), an earthquake with surface wave magnitude MS=8.1 shook west of Kunlun Mountain Pass (KMP) at the juncture of Xinjiang, Qinghai and Xizang on November 14, 2001. This is the largest and the only MS>8.0 earthquake in Chinese mainland over 50 years since the August 15, 1950 MS=8.6 (MW=8.6) Chayuearthquake in Tibeta…     

Regional characteristics of coda attenuation after the lancang-Gengma earthquake

In the light of the single scattering model of coda originating from local earthquakes, and based on the aftershock coda registered respectively at the 4 short period stations installed near the foci shortly after theM7.6 Lancang andM7.2 Gengma earthquakes, this paper has tentatively calculated the rate of amplitude attenuation and theQ _c-value of the coda in the Lancang and Gengma areas using a newly-founded synthetic determination method. Result of the study shows the rate of coda amplitude attenuation demonstrates remarkable regional differences respectively in the southern and northern areas. The southern area presents a faster attenuation (Q _c=114), whereas the northern area shows a slower attenuation (Q _c=231). The paper also discusses the reasons causing such differences. Result of the study also suggests a fairly good linear relation between the coda source factorA _o(f) and the seismic moment and the magnitude. Using the earthquake scaling law, the following formulas can be derived: lgM ₀=lgA ₀(f)+17.6,M _D=0.67lgA ₀(f)+1.21 and logM ₀=1.5M _D+15.79. In addition, the rates of amplitude attenuationβ _s andβ _m are respectively calculated using the single scattering and multiple scattering models, and the ratioβ _s/β_m=1.20−1.50 is found for the results respectively from the two models. Finally, the mean free pathL of the S-wave scattering in the southern and northern areas are determined to be 54 km and 122 km respectively by the relations which can distinguish between the inherentQ _i and scatteringQ _s, testify to this areas having lowQ-values correspond to stronger scatterings. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 71–82, 1992. This study is partly supported by the Seismological Science Foundation of the State Seismological Bureau of China, and the present English version of the paper is translated from its Chinese original by Wenyi Xia, Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province.     

2022门源MS6.9地震地表破裂带震害特征调查

2022年1月8日,青海省海北藏族自治州门源县发生M_S6.9地震,震中位于青藏高原东北缘地区祁连—海原断裂带的冷龙岭断裂和托勒山断裂构造转换区域(37.77°N,101.26°E)。震后野外现场考察结果表明,此次地震形成的同震地表破裂带总长度约为26 km,整体走向NWW向,破裂性质以左旋走滑局部逆冲为主。断层错动造成的破坏形式以雁列式组合的张裂隙、张剪裂隙、挤压鼓包、断层陡坎等为主。其中,道河至硫磺沟段地表破裂最为强烈,规模大且连续性好,造成的震害最为显著,地表破裂规模向东、西两端逐渐衰减。破裂带穿过区域内多条河流,造成显著的冰面破裂变形,并沿河岸形成一系列的边坡崩塌、滚石等地质灾害。综合破裂带及震害规模分析,宏观震中位于道河至硫磺沟地区。     

The GIS and analysis of earthquake damage distribution of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake

The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship, the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics, site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed. Foundation item: National important fundamental research “The Basic Research of Important Project in Damage Environment” and The important project “The Seismic Hazard Assessment Research and Anti-earthquake Structure Research” from China Earthquake Administration during the 10th Five-year Plan. Contribution No. 04FE1008, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.     

2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震前地震应变场分析

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震前的地震应变场,提取出震前时间因子的异常变化。计算结果发现应变场前4个时间因子在震前1~3年的中短期异常并不显著,只有第2个和第4个时间因子震前有小幅度的异常变化,分析其原因,时间因子可能受到2008年汶川8.0级地震和2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前大幅度异常的影响。与时间因子对应的空间等值线形成局部应变高值异常危险区,可能是2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震和2017年九寨沟7.0级地震空间异常的中短期特征。再对比九寨沟7.0级地震前后与松潘-平武7.2级双震的空间异常随时间演变,分析异常发展变化模式的差异,最后应用地震资料的累积频次从物理角度解释异常形成的机制。     

InSAR数据约束的2022年1月8日青海门源MS6.9地震发震构造研究

利用Sentinel-1A卫星升降轨道数据和D-InSAR技术获得青海门源2022年1月8日M_S6.9地震的同震形变场,并基于弹性半空间位错模型反演其震源参数,利用分布滑动模型确定断层面上的滑动分布。结果表明,2022年1月8日青海门源地震的同震形变场沿NWW-SEE方向分布;断裂带南缘升轨影像和降轨影像最大视距分别为61 cm和62 cm,断裂带北缘升轨影像和降轨影像最大视距地表形变量分别为43 cm和56 cm。InSAR同震形变场断裂尺度模型断层长30 km,宽18 km,最大滑移量3.5 m;断层滑动分布模型表明该地震为左旋走滑地震。结合冷龙岭断裂的运动特征和几何特征,初步确定此次M_S6.9地震的发震断裂为冷龙岭断裂     

Investigation of rupture process of the 1999 M =5.4 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake sequence

Conclusions The sequence of the November 29, 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake withM _S=5.4 is relocated, and its rupture process is analyzed. Results are as follows: The rupture extended mainly before the January 12, 2000,M _S=5.1 earthquake. There are two phases of rupture extending: The first phase was before the November 29, 1999,M _S=5.4 earthquake, epicenters were situated within a small region with a dimension of about 5 km, and the focal depth increased. It shows that the rupture mainly extended from shallow part to deep in the vertical direction. The second phase was between theM _S=5.4 earthquake and theM _S=5.1 earthquake, earthquakes migrated along southeast, the focal depth decreased. It indicates that the rupture extended along southeast and from deep to shallow part. Foundation item: The Project of “Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Continental Earthquake” (95-13-05-04). Contribution No. 01FE2017, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau.     

2017年九寨沟7.0级地震前应力状态及b值异常特征研究

2017年8月8日青藏高原东缘四川九寨沟地区发生7.0级强震,依据前人研究结果分析九寨沟7.0级地震发震构造,并计算震前应力状态。结果显示:本次地震受到构造和历史强震的影响,是发生在历史强震引起的应力加载区域。另外,采用中国地震台网1990年以来的地震目录,在评估目录完整性的基础上,利用最大似然法计算得到2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震前震源区及邻区地震b值空间图像。结果显示,九寨沟7.0级地震发生在四川北部地区显著低b值高应力异常区域内部(0.82b0.75)。所以,研究区域内外历史强震可能促进了九寨沟7.0级地震的发生。