Recurrence Behaviors of Earthquakes along the Kefallinia Transform Fault, Ionian Sea, Greece

We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. Our data include 29 events with %M%>5^5 for the period 1636～2003. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone (clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors) and the Lefkada Fault Zone (near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature). The different modes may be attributed to: (a) segment interaction along-strike (Kefallinia) by static triggering and (b) the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.     

Characteristics of Energy Accumulation and Release of Seismogenic Tectonics and Seismic Risk Analysis in Some Areas in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

Comparative analysis between the quantitative data of active faults and seismicity reveals that a complete earthquake recurrence cycle includes the characteristic earthquake and the submaxima earthquakes in-between. The magnitude of the sub-maxima events is correlated with the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquake and the slip rate of the fault. The fault displacement includes the major stick-slip generated by the characteristic earthquakes and the minor stick-slip by the sub-maxima ones. The magnitude-frequency relationship still works in the complete recurrence cycle. The energy accumulation in the cycle is divided approximately into four phases, and the seismicity differs at each phase. The relation of the maximum displacement with the average displacement of the characteristic earthquake suggests the partitioning of deformation between the characteristic and the sub-maxima earthquakes. Based on the above analysis, relevant mathematical equations are put forward for the quantitative assessment of the potential magnitude and earthquake risk of seismogenic tectonics. Tentative study has been carried out in this aspect in some areas of Tianshan.     

Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province and its implication

In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML≥2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is proposed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.     

Discovery of the Surface Rupture Zone on the South of Helishan in Gaotai,Gansu Province

According to a new investigation in the northern Hexi corridor,the remains of two surface rupture zones were discovered on the southern margin fault of the Helishan. One rupture has a length of approximately 7km and the other 10km. The two surface rupture zones might have been produced by the latest earthquake event. On the surface rupture is continuous scarp and free face caused by the rupture. The scarp is about 1 ～ 1. 5m high and on some sites,nearly up to 2m. According to the OSL results,the latest T1 terrace and higher flood plain forming in 3000a B. P. are dislocated by the fault. The above reveals the rupture age to be later than the T1 terrace. However,in the historical data and earthquake catalogue,we didn't find related information about the fault and surface rupture in this area. The 180 A. D. Biaoshi M8. 0 earthquake and the 756 A. D. Zhangye-Jiuquan M7. 0 earthquake are documented in historical data. It is inferred by textual research that the two earthquakes are related to the northern marginal fault of Yumushan in the south of the basin. Due to a lack of reliable evidence,there are still many arguments on this inferred conclusion. Thus we hold that the two surface rupture zones were produced by one of the two large earthquakes or other unrecorded historical event. The research on the activity and surface rupture of this fault can offer valuable information for the tectonic study and strong earthquake risk estimates of this region in the future.     

Analysis of Tectonic Conditions for Strong Earthquakes and Prediction of Seismic Risk of Seismogenic Fault Zones in the Northern Part of North China

The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to different fields have been described by predecessors.In this paper,the authors try to study and evaluate all the tectonic condition factors for strong earthquakes by the methods of fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis.Taking the northern part of North China as an example,the authors make a comprehensive digital analysis of all the quantitative and semi-quantitative tectonic factors.The credibility values of all strong earthquakes with different magnitudes are given after statistical analysis and calculation.Forty-one fault zones in the study region are quantitatively analyzed,and the potential seismogenic fault zones,maximum magnitude,and risk of earthquake occurrence in the near future are assessed.The result of synthetic evaluation,based on all tectonic conditions of different categorie     

Effect of Seismicity in the Taiwan Straits on the Southeast Coastal Area of the Chinese Mainland

Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan area is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ～ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan area. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan area.     

Analysis of Paleoseismic Events of Dahuzhuang Trench at the Xiadian Fault

The Xiadian Fault is a very important concealed active fault in the Beijing Plain. It is the seismogenic fault of the Sanhe-Pinggu M_S8.0 earthquake in 1679. The ancient earthquake sequence in the long historical period is of great significance to understand accurately the activity characteristics of the fault and effectively reduce the earthquake disaster risk in Beijing. We have re-interpreted the Dahuzhuang trench, and identified three layers of buried paleosol, six collapsed wedges and one sand liquefaction event. Further, through the comparison with the landmark strata and paleo-earthquake events revealed by other trenches on the fault, an ancient earthquake sequence with a long historical period of the Xiadian Fault was established:since the 31ka, the Xiadian Fault has 11 occurrences of earthquake events (including the 1679 earthquake), and the average recurrence interval is about 2.8ka. The paleo-seismic sequence also shows that there is an ancient earthquake cluster period from 25ka to 15ka, and there are 5 strong earthquakes in the cluster period. The average recurrence interval is about 2.0ka, which reflects the phase difference of the Xiadian Fault activity.     

Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

IntroductionEarthquake recurrence models established on activity behaviors of strong earthquakes are the bases of long-term earthquake prediction, seismic risk zonation, and seismic hazard assessment. A lot of studies have been carried out on earthquake recurrence behaviors for specific seismogenic sources or fault-segments, and a series of empirical recurrence models have been proposed, such as the time-predictable model and the slip-predictable model for earthquakes repeated at the previous …     

新疆南部构造区带与地震活动状态研究

Based on the studies of earthquake activity, tectonic movement, crustal shortening rate, fault activity, local stress field and historical characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Xinjiang, we divide the south part of Xinjiang into 4 seismotectonic zones, namely, the eastern segment of south Tianshan seismic belt, the Kalpin block, the Kashi-Wuqia junction zone, and the west Kunlun Mountains seismic belt. Using earthquake catalogues from Xinjiang since 1900, and on the basis of integrity analysis of earthquake records in different magnitude ranges, the seismicity state of different seismotectonic zones is analyzed quantificationally by calculating the mean value of annual strain energy release, annual rate of earthquakes with different lower limits of magnitude, b-value, and the parameter m of accelerating strain release model. The characteristic indexes of seismicity state for each of the seismic tectonic zones are then determined, which provide a quantitative basis for earthquake tendency analysis and judgment.     

川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究

我们根据历史地震资料，采用统计学方法研究了川滇地区7条活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征。结果表明，这7条断裂带的强地震复发表现出趋于随机的、随机的、以及丛集的行为，复发过程不具有良好的准周期性，也不存在强度－时间或者时间－强度的相依性。组成断裂带的强震破裂段落的数量越多，复发过程就越复杂。相对的地震活跃期与平静期交替出现。其中，活跃期内地震复发间隔分布的离散性较大，可用Weibull分布近似描述；而平静期的持续时间分布的离散性较小，可用正态等分布近似描述。不同相对活跃期的持续时间及强震的数量差别很大，导致相对活跃期并非准周期重视。因此，基于断裂带整体强震复发间隔分布的中长期危险性概率评估仍然面临一定的困难。     

川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性

通过与更早地震资料的对比, 研究了鲜水河断裂带, 川滇地壳块体东带、 西带, 松潘、 龙门山断裂带以及整个川滇地区较长时间尺度的地震活动盛衰交替性。 结果表明, 川滇东带北段(鲜水河断裂带)、 松潘、 龙门山地震带及川滇西带中段和南段(主要是红河断裂带)的地震活动具有明显的几十到百年尺度的盛衰交替性。 而川滇东带中南段(安宁河-则木河-小江断裂带)与川滇西带北段(金沙江断裂带)在上述地震带的平静期里, 中强以上地震频次明显减少, 但有个别7级以上强震发生。 这样, 整个川滇地区地震活动的盛衰交替性呈现一种比较复杂的阶段性特征: 伴随频繁中强震的强震活跃期与突发强震活动期交替出现。 值得注意的是, 川滇地区从19世纪末开始的伴随频繁中强震的强震活跃期已超过百年, 目前出现长期平静, 应注意进入突发强震活动期的可能性。 根据川滇地区上一个突发强震活动期突发强震的空间分布, 推测未来的突发强震可能发生在南北向断裂带, 或其他方向断裂带与南北向断裂带的交汇部。 文中还对上述统计现象的机理作了简要讨论。     

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model, the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault, which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology, geodesy, and historical earthquake records. Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world, this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap, motion strongly locked, sparse small-moderate earthquakes, and apparent Coulomb stress increase. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland. The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations; the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.     

Rupture segmentation and assessment of probabilities of seismic potential on the Xiaojiang fault zone

Spatial distribution of sources of strong and large earthquakes on the Xiaojiang fault zone in eastern Yunnan is studied according to historical earthquake data. 7 segments of relatively independent sources or basic units of rupture along the fault zone have been identified preliminarily. On every segment, time intervals between main historical earthquakes are generally characterized by “time-predictable” recurrence behavior with indetermination. A statistic model for the time intervals between earthquakes of the fault zone has been preliminarily established. And a mathematical method has been introduced into this paper to reckon average recurrence interval between earthquakes under the condition of having known the size of the last event at a specific segment. Based on these, ranges of the average recurrence intervals given confidence have been estimated for events of various sizes on the fault zone. Further, the author puts forward a real-time probabilistic model that is suitable to analyze seismic potential for individual segments along a fault zone on which earthquake recurrence intervals have been characterized by quasi-time-predictable behavior, and applies this model to calculate conditional probabilities and probability gains of earthquake recurring on the individual segments of the Xiaojiang fault zone during the period from 1991 to 2005. As a consequence, it has shown that two parts of this fault zone, from south of Dongchuan to Songming and from Chengjiang to Huaning, have relatively high likelihoods for strong or large earthquake recurring in the future. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 322–330, 1993.     

祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估

祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区发育多条重要活动断裂,多年来已积累较丰富的古地震研究的成果。本文在前人研究基础上,结合历史地震数据等,从定量化强震复发间隔T与平均复发间隔T_a入手,将其比值（T/T_a）进行数学处理,借鉴NB模型的思路,建立祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区模型,进而对强震潜势进行评估。结果表明:祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区内未来可能的强震发生地点是榆木山北缘断裂芦泉河-九个泉段和榆木山东缘断裂梨园河口-黑河口段。     

川滇交界东段昭通、莲峰断裂带的地震危险背景

川滇交界东段NE向昭通、莲峰断裂带的研究程度较低.为了了解该断裂带是否存在发生强震/大地震的危险背景,我们基于区域活动构造与动力学、重新定位的小震分布和震源机制解、历史地震破裂区、GPS形变场、现代地震活动及其参数图像等多学科的信息进行综合研究.结果表明:昭通、莲峰断裂带是川滇-华南活动块体/地块边界带的一部分,也是活动及变形的大凉山次级块体与相对稳定的华南地块之间的边界带;结构上表现为2个平行展布、朝南东推覆的断裂带,现今运动为带有显著逆冲分量的右旋走滑性质.沿昭通断裂带无大地震的时间至少为1700 余年,目前存在地震空区.GPS变形图像反映昭通、莲峰断裂带已不同程度闭锁.另外,昭通断裂带的鲁甸附近以及莲峰断裂带的南段分别存在异常低b值区或高应力区.已由低b值区和小震空白区识别出昭通断裂带上的鲁甸-彝良之间存在高应力闭锁段,并估计出其潜在地震的最大矩震级为M_W7.4.本研究因此认为昭通断裂带存在发生强震/大地震的中-长期危险背景, 而莲峰断裂带的危险性还需进一步研究.     

由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性

根据最近28年的区域台网地震资料,利用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值的组合方法,结合历史强震背景,分析了沿川北龙门山-岷山断裂带不同断裂段的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险段落。研究结果表明:龙门山断裂带中-南段存在6个具有不同现今活动习性的段落,其中,绵竹-茂县段处于相对高应力背景下的频繁中-小震活动状态,被认为是龙门山断裂带上未来最可能发生强震的地段;江油-平武段处于相对高应力背景下的稀疏中-小震活动状态,未来有可能发生中强地震。而岷山断裂带中的岷江断裂段和虎牙断裂段,以及叠溪隐伏逆断层地区均具有相对偏低的应力水平,可能与其不久前分别发生过大地震和强震有关,未来不太长的时期内复发大地震的可能性较小。     

HOLOCENE PALAEOSEISMOLOGIC RECORD AND RUPTURE BEHAVIOR OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE XIANSHUIHE FAULT

The Xianshuihe Fault, the boundary of Bayan Har active tectonic block and Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block, is one of the most active fault zones in the world. In the past nearly 300 years, 9 historical earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 7 have been recorded. Since 2008, several catastrophic earthquakes, such as Wenchuan M_S8 earthquake, Yushu M_S7.1 earthquake and Lushan M_S7 earthquake, have occurred on the other Bayan Har block boundary fault zones. However, only the Kangding M_S6.3 earthquake in 2014 was documented on the Xianshuihe Fault. Thus, the study of surface deformation and rupture behavior of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary on the Xianshuihe Fault is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of this fault, and even the entire western Sichuan region. On the basis of the former work, combined with our detailed geomorphic and geological survey, we excavated a combined trench on the Qianning segment of Xianshuihe fault zone which has a long elapse time. Charcoal and woods in the trench are abundant. 30 samples were dated to constrain the ages of the paleoseismic events. Five events were identified in the past 9  000 years, whose ages are:8070-6395 BC, 5445-5125 BC, 4355-4180 BC, 625-1240 AD and the Qianning earthquake in 1893. The large earthquake recurrence behavior on this segment does not follow the characteristic earthquake recurrence model. The recurrence interval is 1000~2000 years in early period and in turn there is a quiet period of about 5 000 years after 4355-4180 BC event. Then it enters the active period again. Two earthquakes with surface rupture occurred in the past 1000 years and the latest two earthquakes may have lower magnitude. The left-lateral coseismic displacement of the 1893 Qianning earthquake is about 2.9m.     

MIGRATION OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN TIBETAN BLOCK AREA AND DISSCUSSION ON MAJOR ACTIVE REGION IN THE FUTURE

On the basis of summarizing the circulation characteristics and mechanism of earthquakes with magnitude 7 or above in continental China, the spatial-temporal migration characteristics, mechanism and future development trend of earthquakes with magnitude above 7 in Tibetan block area are analyzed comprehensively. The results show that there are temporal clustering and spatial zoning of regional strong earthquakes and large earthquakes in continental China, and they show the characteristics of migration and circulation in time and space. In the past 100a, there are four major earthquake cluster areas that have migrated from west to east and from south to north, i.e. 1)Himalayan seismic belt and Tianshan-Baikal seismic belt; 2)Mid-north to north-south seismic belt in Tibetan block area; 3)North-south seismic belt-periphery of Assam cape; and 4)North China and Sichuan-Yunnan area. The cluster time of each area is about 20a, and a complete cycle time is about 80a. The temporal and spatial images of the migration and circulation of strong earthquakes are consistent with the motion velocity field images obtained through GPS observations in continental China. The mechanism is related to the latest tectonic activity in continental China, which is mainly affected by the continuous compression of the Indian plate to the north on the Eurasian plate, the rotation of the Tibetan plateau around the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, and the additional stress field caused by the change of the earth's rotation speed.
Since 1900AD, the Tibetan block area has experienced three periods of high tides of earthquake activity clusters(also known as earthquake series), among which the Haiyuan-Gulang earthquake series from 1920 to 1937 mainly occurred around the active block boundary structural belt on the periphery of the Tibetan block region, with the largest earthquake occurring on the large active fault zone in the northeastern boundary belt. The Chayu-Dangxiong earthquake series from 1947 to 1976 mainly occurred around the large-scale boundary active faults of Qiangtang block, Bayankala block and eastern Himalayan syntaxis within the Tibetan block area. In the 1995-present Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, 8 earthquakes with M_S7.0 or above have occurred on the boundary fault zones of the Bayankala block. Therefore, the Bayankala block has become the main area of large earthquake activity on the Tibetan plateau in the past 20a. The clustering characteristic of this kind of seismic activity shows that in a certain period of time, strong earthquake activity can occur on the boundary fault zone of the same block or closely related blocks driven by a unified dynamic mechanism, reflecting the overall movement characteristics of the block. The migration images of the main active areas of the three earthquake series reflect the current tectonic deformation process of the Tibetan block region, where the tectonic activity is gradually converging inward from the boundary tectonic belt around the block, and the compression uplift and extrusion to the south and east occurs in the plateau. This mechanism of gradual migration and repeated activities from the periphery to the middle can be explained by coupled block movement and continuous deformation model, which conforms to the dynamic model of the active tectonic block hypothesis.
A comprehensive analysis shows that the Kunlun-Wenchuan earthquake series, which has lasted for more than 20a, is likely to come to an end. In the next 20a, the main active area of the major earthquakes with magnitude 7 on the continental China may migrate to the peripheral boundary zone of the Tibetan block. The focus is on the eastern boundary structural zone, i.e. the generalized north-south seismic belt. At the same time, attention should be paid to the earthquake-prone favorable regions such as the seismic empty sections of the major active faults in the northern Qaidam block boundary zone and other regions. For the northern region of the Tibetan block, the areas where the earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above are most likely to occur in the future will be the boundary structural zones of Qaidam active tectonic block, including Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, the northern margin fault zone of western Qinling, the eastern Kunlun fault zone and the Altyn Tagh fault zone, etc., as well as the empty zones or empty fault segments with long elapse time of paleo-earthquake or no large historical earthquake rupture in their structural transformation zones. In future work, in-depth research on the seismogenic tectonic environment in the above areas should be strengthened, including fracture geometry, physical properties of media, fracture activity behavior, earthquake recurrence rule, strain accumulation degree, etc., and then targeted strengthening tracking monitoring and earthquake disaster prevention should be carried out.