基于地貌信息熵与滑坡物源的芦山地震区泥石流危险性评价

地貌信息熵是判断地貌发育演化阶段的量化指标,常用以表示流域地貌面的受侵蚀程度,是地形地貌因子的反映。以GIS技术为操作平台,利用芦山地震滑坡体积作为泥石流物质来源数据,采用地貌信息熵方法,对55条泥石流沟进行了基于滑坡物源的泥石流危险性区划研究,期望能为即将来临的雨季做好泥石流危险区规划和防灾工程部署提供参考。研究结果表明:研究区泥石流沟谷流域地貌信息熵值变化范围为0.003 2~0.938 1,沟谷地貌演化从幼年期至老年期均有分布;泥石流危险区面积自极高危险区至极低危险区基本呈现递减趋势,80.77%研究区面积的泥石流沟谷比较活跃,处于幼年期—壮年期的泥石流沟谷增加了泥石流发生的危险性;泥石流沟谷流域斜坡物质响应率变化范围为0~133.24mm,低度和极低度物源敏感区面积共占研究区沟谷流域面积的72.93%,表明近的泥石流沟谷流域对滑坡物源不敏感;基于滑坡物源的泥石流危险性评价结果表明,以上的泥石流沟谷流域处于中度及以上危险区,泥石流活动较为活跃。     

泥石流单双边防护堤防治效果对比——以曾达沟为例

防护堤选型对于泥石流的工程防治具有重要意义.以四川阿坝州曾达沟"6.27"泥石流灾害为例,通过对曾达沟地形地貌的遥感解译和对泥石流灾害的现场调查分析了单、双边防护堤选型的灾害特征,利用筛分实验、马尔文实验和室内直接剪切等实验、泥石流动力学和阻力计算等方法对曾达沟防治工程中的排导槽防护堤进行了研究与评价.研究结果表明,单...     

西藏天摩沟冰川遥感监测及泥石流触发成因分析

对于有冰川发育的泥石流隐患点而言,获取冰川动态有助于分析泥石流触发成因.西藏波密县天摩沟是大型泥石流灾害隐患点,在过去二十年中多次暴发泥石流.本文利用Planet、TanDEM-X和Sentinel-2卫星数据估计了天摩沟冰川2016—2021年间的边界变化、2000—2016年间的表面高程变化,以及2016—2021年间的流速变化.冰川边界、表面高程和流速变化观测结果均表明天摩沟冰川在2018年7月11日大型泥石流暴发前未发生跃动或崩塌.通过分析高分辨光学影像和气象数据,认为冰川附近山体崩滑产生的岩屑,冰川前方的冰碛物和散冰,以及主沟中上游沟岸滑坡产生的松散物共同组成2018年7月11日泥石流的启动物源,灾前连续两天降水使得物源含水量达到饱和,土体抗剪强度降低,灾害当天持续小雨诱发高位物源启动,形成泥石流灾害.天摩沟冰川对泥石流发育的作用在于贡献了部分物源和水源.其流速明显高于周边冰川,主干峰值流速可达0.80±0.02 m·d^-1.冰川高速流动使得高位冰碛物堆积速度快,而冰川融水使得泥石流降雨启动阈值更低.天摩沟在2018年7月之后没有再发生大规模泥石流,但是...     

“6·28”矮子沟特大泥石流灾害成因研究

通过对四川凉山矮子沟流域的勘查,结合遥感解译及矮子沟流域的地质活动历史,分析“6·28”矮子沟泥石流的影响因素,在此基础上分析了矮子沟泥石流的成因。“6·28”矮子沟泥石流是在地震、人类活动及干旱影响下,受强降雨激发,坡面及支沟先发生泥石流,支沟泥石流堵塞主沟泄洪通道,强降雨使堵塞体瞬间溃决形成较大山洪,山洪的强大揭底作用使沟床松散固体物质启动,沿途不断有岸坡坍塌补给,中下游段有大块石加入,规模不断增大而形成。采用形态调查法计算的泥石流流量为925．91m3／s,泥石流总量为57．4×104m3,一次固体物质总量为27×104m3。通过对矮子沟流域的物源、地形及流域的气候特征研究,得出初步结论：近期泥石流的规模和频率都会降低,但在极端干旱、地震和强降雨的偶然联合作用下,依然可能发生大规模的泥石流灾害。     

青海加吾矿区玛日当沟泥石流流域分区与动力特征分析

加吾矿区地处青藏高原区内柴达木盆地东缘区的青海南山微造山带内,为保障该区矿产资源勘查及开采工作的顺利进行,有效预防矿区内泥石流等突发性地质灾害的发生。通过开展矿区泥石流灾害详查工作,尤其是针对矿区重点工作区玛日当沟流域进行了系统的调查,建立了对该流域泥石流灾害发育背景的充分认识,并对该流域泥石流分区特征作了系统描述。在此基础上,依据青海省同德县气象观测资料,对玛日当沟泥石流动力特征作了详细分析。结果显示,矿区玛日当沟为标准型泥石流沟,流域分区特征显著,具备了泥石流形成的有利条件。计算表明,该流域十年一遇、二十年一遇、五十年一遇、一百年一遇以及两百年一遇的泥石流峰值流量分别为54.19 m~3/s、76.23 m~3/s、129.51 m~3/s、196.03 m~3/s、278.86 m~3/s。     

青海省循化县泥石流特征分析与防治对策

循化县南山一带共发育了17条泥石流沟,严重影响了县城内人民生命财产的安全。南山泥石流群物源丰富,沟道纵坡降大,因此只要有足够的降雨就可以形成泥石流。在对循化泥石流群灾害特征分析的基础上,针对各泥石流沟不同的地质环境条件提出了相应的防治对策。     

茶园沟泥石流易发性综合评价

本文基于模糊数学中多级综合评判的理论与方法,运用专家调查打分法确定各评价因子的权重,并结合茶园沟泥石流灾害的具体特点、成因和机理,选取典型的评判因子,建立二级评判模型,对茶园沟泥石流易发性进行二级模糊综合评判。     

沟谷泥石流危险度计算公式的由来及其应用实例

首先介绍了本文作者提出的最新单沟泥石流危险度定量评价计算公式的由来,包括单沟泥石流危险度评价因子的选择,即主要因子的确定和次要因子的筛选,明确了各评价因子的作用,用权重系数方式表达各评价因子对泥石流危险度的影响。然后以2003年发生的四川省丹巴县鹅狼沟泥石流为例,对该沟泥石流危险度进行了定量评价,结果表明其为高度危险的泥石流沟。最后讨论了泥石流危险度计算的经验公式和理论公式及可能遇到的有关问题。     

遭遇泥石流

北京"7·21"特大暴雨过后,导致部分地区山洪、泥石流暴发。全国部分地区也因大范围降暴雨,亦有类似地质灾害发生。北京"7·21"北京暴雨引发三起地质灾害。其中两起是泥石流灾害,这两起泥石流灾害分别是:房山区霞云岭乡庄户台村鱼骨寺泥石流灾害;怀柔区河北镇鸟语林景区发生泥石流灾害。     

不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度计算方法研究

泥石流的淤积厚度是泥石流灾害评估和防治的最重要的参数之一,但迄今还没有较好的方法计算不同容重的泥石流淤积厚度。本文通过研究泥石流屈服应力的特点,提出了用地区参数和泥石流体积浓度来计算泥石流屈服应力,进而计算泥石流淤积厚度的方法。采用本文方法计算已发生泥石流地区不同容重泥石流的淤积厚度,可以很好地应用于泥石流灾害评估和防治。     

A Novel Approach for Estimating Debris Flow Velocities from Near-Field Broadband Seismic Observations

On August 7^th, 2010, Sanyanyu and Luojiayu debris flows triggered by a heavy rain have lashed Zhouqu City around midnight, leading to catastrophic destruction which killed 1 765 people and resulted in enormous economic loss. The ZHQ Seismic Station is located approximately 170 m west of the outlet of the Sanyanyu Gully. The seismometer deployed at the seismic station started recording seismic signals of ever-enlarging amplitude around 10 minutes before the debris flow rushed out of the Sanyanyu Gully, showing ever approaching seismic source, i.e. the debris flow. In this study, we analyze this seismic event and propose an inversion algorithm to estimate the velocity of the debris flow by searching the best-fitting pairs of envelopes in the synthetic seismograms and the corresponding field seismic records in a least-square sense. Inversion results reveal that, before rushing out of the outlet, the average velocity of the debris flow gradually increased from 6.2 m/s to 7.1 m/s and finally reached 15 m/s at approximately 0.5 km above the outlet and kept this value since then. Obviously, the ever-increasing velocity of the debris flow is the key factor for the following disasters. Compared with other studies, our approach can provide the velocity distribution for the debris flow before its outbreak; Besides, it has the potential to provide technological support for a better understanding of the disaster process of a debris flow.     

ANALYSIS ON THE DEBRIS FLOW SURGES

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Determination of the suspension competence of debris flows based on particle size analysis

The determination of the critical particle size between solid and fluid phases, i.e., the suspension competence, is fundamental for debris flow. A method for determining suspension competence based on particle size analysis is presented in this paper. Suspension competence of static experimental water-debris mixtures prepared with the sediment of Jiangjia Gully is -0.025 mm if the bulk density is less than 1,800 kg m-3 and it increases with bulk density of more concentrated mixtures. Suspension competence of natural debris flows in Jiangjia Gully increases exponentially with the bulk density. These two data sets are compared in order to understand the suspension mechanism. It is concluded that turbulence may play a leading role in particle suspension in non-viscous and sub-viscous debris flows, while in viscous debris flows both matrix strength and excess pore water pressure play important roles.     

GIS-based risk analysis of debris flow： an application in Sichuan, southwest China

Debris flow is a serious geologic hazard in China. It is estimated that nationally debris flows cause up to 2 billion RMB （250 million US$） in damages and 300-600 deaths and injuries annually. To mitigate debris flow hazards, it is necessary to map, model, and identify zones of debris flow hazards and vulnerability as to inform the local people about the potential risk with a geographic information system. This research presents a regional scale case study modeling debris flow risk （hazard and vulnerability） in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China. In this area, 3,290 debris flows have been identified and the spatial-temporal distribution and activity characteristics of them have been documented. Based on the available meteorological data, a Digital Elevation Model with the rate of 1：250,000 and a regional geological map, the 24-hr rainfall threshold （y） for debris flow occurrence is closely related （significant at 99% confidence level） to the index （x） defined using a geology factor （rock hardness： a） and a topographical factor （channel gradient： d） where y = 21 ＋ 10200 / x, in which x = 2.7 × e^a ＋ 1000 × d. The discipline is constructive in developing the rainfall threshold for debris flow activity in remote mountainous areas that lack data. For a given watershed, a four-level debris flow hazard map is developed by comparing the rainfall threshold to the design rainfall intensities with 50-, 20-, and 5-year average recurrence intervals, respectively. The degree of debris flow vulnerability is determined by the watershed socio-economic conditions. A four-class debris flow risk map, at the final phase of the research, is generated by combining debris flow hazards and vulnerability. With the debris flow risk assessment, the Sichuan Province is classified into the slight, moderate, severe and very severe regions, which accounts for 36%, 19%, 20% and 25% of total area respectively.     

Modelling study of three-dimensional circulation and particle movement over the Sable Gully of Nova Scotia

The Sable Gully is a broad deep underwater canyon located to the east of Sable Island on the edge of the Scotian Shelf. Being the home of many marine species including the endangered Northern Bottlenose Whale, the Gully was designated as a marine protected area (MPA) in 2004. Better understanding of physical environmental conditions over this MPA is needed for sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, a multi-nested ocean circulation model and a particle tracking model are used to examine the three-dimensional (3D) circulation and movement of particles carried passively by the flow over the Sable Gully. The 3D circulation model is driven by tides, wind, and surface heat/freshwater fluxes. The model performance is assessed by comparing the results with the previous numerical tidal results and current meter observations made in the Gully. The simulated tidal circulation over the Gully and adjacent waters is relatively strong on shallow banks and relatively weak on the continental slope. Below the depth of the Gully rim ( ～ 200 m), the tidal currents are constrained by the thalweg of the Gully and amplified toward the Gully head. The simulated subtidal circulation in the Gully has a complex spatial structure and significant seasonal variability. The simulated time-dependent 3D flow fields are then used in a particle tracking model to study the particle movements, downstream and upstream areas, and residence time of the Gully. Based on the movements of particles released at the depth of the Gully rim and tracked forward in time, the e-folding residence time is estimated to be about 7 and 13 days in February and August 2006, respectively. The Gully flanks are identified as high retention areas with the typical residence time of 10 and 20 days in February and August 2006, respectively. Tracking particles with and without tides reveals that tidal circulation reduces the value of residence time in the Gully, particularly along the Gully flanks.     

格栅坝在泥石流防治中的应用——以汶川地震引发的烂泥沟泥石流治理为例

受汶川地震影响,四川等地泥石流治理更为迫切。泥石流的暴发具有突发性,在防治工程中,相比实体坝而言,格栅坝是一种节省材料、稳定性更高的拦挡结构,使用范围越来越广,但是目前尚无成熟的格栅坝设计方法。本文参考梳齿坝的已有理论确定了支墩间距的计算方法,并结合已有实验资料提出了格栅坝格栅间距的计算公式,改变了以往不同坝体乃至同一坝内各横梁间距一致的计算方法。另外,因支墩间隔相对较小,以简支模式计算石块对横梁冲击力并不合适,本文基于固定梁模式重新推导了计算公式,其计算结果与简支梁模式比较,数值大了3倍。最后考虑坝体建成后的不同情况,提出了支墩、横梁及两侧翼墙的详细计算工况,并基于以上设计理论,对烂泥沟泥石流治理工程的部分格栅坝进行了具体设计。     

Estimating the size and travel distance of Klapperhorn Mountain debris flows for risk analysis along railway, Canada

Debris flows occurring on Klapperhorn Mountain in the Yellowhead Pass in the Canadian Rocky Mountains pose a significant hazard to railway operations at the base of the mountain. The size （volume） and travel distance of these debris flows play an important role in assessing the risk to the railway. GIS analysis, airphoto interpretation together with field work were undertaken on two debris flows located at track mileage 54.0 and 54.3. Characteristics of these two debris flow events were analyzed, including debris flow path morphology and event behavior. Their sizes and travel distances were estimated using an empirical-statistical model （UBCDFLOW） under different initiation conditions. Their potential impact on the railway bridge was evaluated using a bridge blockage ratio.     

GIS‐assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno,Southern Italy: II. Velocity and dynamic pressure

The velocity and dynamic pressure of debris flows are critical determinants of the impact of these natural phenomena on infrastructure. Therefore, the prediction of these parameters is critical for hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. We present here an approach to predict the velocity of debris flows on the basis of the energy line concept. First, we obtained empirically and field‐based estimates of debris flow peak discharge, mean velocity at peak discharge and velocity, at channel bends and within the fans of ten of the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. We used this data to calibrate regression models that enable the prediction of velocity as a function of the vertical distance between the energy line and the surface. Despite the complexity in morphology and behaviour of these flows, the statistical fits were good and the debris flow velocities can be predicted with an associated uncertainty of less than 30% and less than 3 m s^?1. We wrote code in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) that runs within ArcGIS^® to implement the results of these calibrations and enable the automatic production of velocity and dynamic pressure maps. The collected data and resulting empirical models constitute a realistic basis for more complex numerical modelling. In addition, the GIS implementation constitutes a useful decision‐support tool for real‐time hazard mitigation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.