俯冲带地震动特征及其衰减规律探讨

随着我国南海不断开发建设,海洋工程的抗震问题日益受到重视.我国南海东部区域位于大陆板块与海洋板块共同作用的俯冲带地区,地震活动频繁,震级较大,潜在地震对南海开发建设有重要影响.为了研究俯冲带地震的地震动特征及其衰减规律,本文基于实际俯冲带地震数据,并结合数值模拟方法,分析和探讨了俯冲带板内、板缘地震与浅地壳地震的地震动特征和衰减规律的差异.研究结果表明:俯冲带地震动存在区域性差异,在地震动衰减特征方面,同一区域的俯冲带板缘地震要比浅地壳地震衰减慢,俯冲带板内地震要比浅地壳地震衰减得快;数值模拟分析不同深度海水对海底地震动的影响表明,海底地震动水平分量几乎不受海水介质的影响,但是竖向分量随海水深度的增加有减小的趋势.最终,基于数值模拟和经验关系的混合方法建立了南海俯冲带地震动衰减关系模型,其结果可为海域区划等相关研究和海域工程建设提供参考.     

中国海域地震区划及关键问题研究

国家重点研发计划项目《海域地震区划关键技术研究》已实施3年，进入项目结题阶段，已形成海域地震区划方法与技术体系，研究成果为即将开展的中国海域地震区划图编制工作提供技术支撑。项目组分析和探讨了海域地震区划研究基础与存在的问题，结合所关注的关键科学和技术问题，介绍和分析了主要研究成果和进展，包括海域断裂活动性探测和地震构造、中国海域与邻区地震目录及地震活动特征、海域地震动特性及衰减模型、海域场地条件及对地震动的影响、海域地震区划图编制方法与技术等；编制了一系列相关图件、数据库和计算软件，包括中国东部和南部海域活动构造框架图、3个典型海域（位于黄海、台湾海峡、南海内）地震构造图、中国海域及邻区统一地震目录、中国海域潜在震源区划分图与考虑不确定性的对比方案及考虑三维潜源模型的地震危险性分析软件；建立了中国海域及邻区俯冲带地震构造模型、基于地震动观测记录和地震模拟数据的南海俯冲带板内地震动衰减关系、利用强震动加速度记录结合宽频带速度记录的俯冲带板缘与板内地震的地震动长周期反应谱衰减关系，提出了以场地覆盖土层厚度及土层等效剪切波速为指标的大陆架场地分类方法及相应的场地地震动参数调整方案；最后形成了海域地震区划图编制原则、技术要求和技术方法体系，完成了海域地震区划图编制规程（初稿）的编制工作，基本完成了3个典型海域地震区划图的编制工作。     

马尼拉海沟俯冲带板缘地震特征及衰减关系研究

俯冲带通常位于陆地板块与海洋板块或者海洋板块之间的交界处,地质构造复杂,地震活动频繁.在南海海域,马尼拉海沟俯冲带对中国海洋战略及近海重大工程的实施位置至关重要.在缺少实际地震数据的前提下,为分析马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震动及其衰减关系特征,通过采用随机有限断层法模拟该俯冲带地震动,分析地震动加速度时程及反应谱特点,同时分别...     

海域地震区划关键技术研究项目及研究进展

中国位处环太平洋地震带与地中海-喜马拉雅地震带之间,陆域和海域地区的地质构造活动均非常强。随着沿海经济的持续、快速发展,特别是"21世纪海上丝绸之路"战略构想的提出,滨海、近海及海洋工程的抗震设防成为地震科学领域的热点研究方向。因此,迫切需要开展海域地震区划为工程抗震设防提供依据。国家重点研发计划项目"海域地震区划关键技术研究"以海域地震区划的基本原则、科学问题及关键技术为研究目标,提出海域地震区划图的编制原则,形成区划方法与技术系统,并通过典型海域地震区划的示范应用,为中国海域地震区划图编制提供技术支撑。经过两年的项目研究,编制完成了中国东部和南部海域活动构造框架图和3个典型海域(位于黄海、台湾海峡、南海内)地震构造简图,获得了中国海域及邻区俯冲带地震构造模型;建立了中国海域及邻区的统一地震目录,给出了中国近海大陆架地震带的地震活动性方案和参数;统计分析了海域与陆域场地上地震动以及内陆与俯冲带的不同震源类型地震的地震动特性差异,提出了基于地震动观测记录和地震模拟数据的地震动衰减模型构建方案;建立了中国海域及邻区海底地形及海床场地模型,给出了初步的海域场地地震动调整方法;分别开展了海上风力发电、桥梁及海底管道等海域工程及珊瑚岛礁的地震反应模拟分析,初步给出了海洋工程结构和岛礁对不同的地震动参数的敏感性特征;提出了典型示范区的地震区带及潜在震源区方案,形成了海域地震区划的原则与方法,完成了海域地震区划技术系统架构的设计。     

俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的评估检验实例——2021年2月13日日本福岛县东部海域MW7.1地震

地震动预测具有较大不确定性,利用强震动观测记录对已有地震动预测模型进行检验评估对于模型的合理使用具有重要参考意义。针对2021年2月13日发生在日本福岛县东部海域的M_W7.1地震,基于残差分析和对数似然函数法对俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的路径项和场地项表征合理性、模型的预测精确性进行了评估。得到结果:（1） SMA2020模型对于地震动的路径衰减表征较为合理,在路径项中考虑了莫霍面反射效应,可以更真实地表征俯冲带深源地震的路径效应。（2） SMA2020模型对于PGV的场地效应表征较为合理,但对于PGA及PSA的场地效应表征有所偏差,还需要进一步检验验证。（3） SMA2020模型对于此次板内地震的短周期IM预测精确性要优于中长周期,对于T=1s的PSA预测表现最不佳。研究结果可为模型的潜在使用者提供有价值的辅助信息,也可以为我国地震动预测模型的开发研究提供理论参考。     

考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法研究及在中国海域的应用

本文研究了俯冲带潜在震源区离散化方法及考虑俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的场点地震动计算方法，推导了俯冲带潜在震源区地震危险性计算公式，并使用中国海域及邻区地震危险性模型进行地震危险性试算。结果表明，本文建立的考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法能够实现场点地震危险性计算时对俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的考虑。     

2021年日本福岛海域MW7.1地震S-net海底地震动特征

2021年2月13日日本福岛县东部海域(Off-Fukushima)发生的M_W7.1地震是目前世界最大的海底观测系统——日本海沟地震和海啸海底观测网(S-net)——迄今为止记录到最大的俯冲带地震.为认识海底地震动并探究海陆差异,本文介绍了S-net海域台网及其数据处理的特殊性和必要性,分析了Off-Fukushima地震的地震动幅值、频谱和持时特征,比较了海底与陆地震动衰减特性的异同,对比了近海岸埋置台站、近海沟未埋台站及陆地台站地震动的差异,并与俯冲带地震动模型(GMM)进行了比较.结果表明：Off-Fukushima地震海底水平向PGV和周期大于0.5 s的加速度反应谱值显著大于陆地记录;相比陆地,海底动力放大系数谱向长周期方向偏移,表明海底记录长周期成分更丰富;受到海水的抑制作用,海底记录V/H反应谱比值小于陆地记录;由于海底记录与陆地GMM在路径和场地方面存在差异,水平向PGA及反应谱的残差分布出现明显偏移;海底近海岸埋置台站与近海沟未埋台站的地震动特征存在系统性差异,水平向差异很可能与海底地形有关,而竖向可能受到布设方式对台站与海底耦合程度的影响.本文...     

潜在地震对我国南海开发和建设影响的初步考虑

南海地区位于欧亚板块、太平洋板块和印度板块交汇处,地质构造十分复杂。考虑并关注潜在地震对南海区域的影响,可以有效降低地震带来的危害。我国目前已经建立了比较完备的陆地地区建、构筑物的抗震设计规范,但是针对海域的工程地震研究还比较少,地震动参数特征和地震动衰减规律尚是空白。基于上述考虑本文分析了南海及临区的地震构造,通过对历史地震资料分析表明：（1）南海北部历史上发生过7级以上大地震,该区域的近海工程要考虑琼粤滨海断裂带和红河断裂带引发的地震影响;（2）南海中部区域要更加关注台南至菲律宾吕宋岛西侧俯冲带的影响,该区域地震易发、多发,6级左右的中强震较多,强震和大震也偶有发生;（3）俯冲带地震与浅地壳地震的特征有一定差异,因而有必要对俯冲带板内、板缘地震做专门分析和研究。     

潜在地震对我国南海开发和建设影响的初步考虑

南海地区位于欧亚板块、太平洋板块和印度板块交汇处,地质构造十分复杂。考虑并关注潜在地震对南海区域的影响,可以有效降低地震带来的危害。我国目前已经建立了比较完备的陆地地区建、构筑物的抗震设计规范,但是针对海域的工程地震研究还比较少,地震动参数特征和地震动衰减规律尚是空白。基于上述考虑本文分析了南海及临区的地震构造,通过对历史地震资料分析表明：（1）南海北部历史上发生过7级以上大地震,该区域的近海工程要考虑琼粤滨海断裂带和红河断裂带引发的地震影响;（2）南海中部区域要更加关注台南至菲律宾吕宋岛西侧俯冲带的影响,该区域地震易发、多发,6级左右的中强震较多,强震和大震也偶有发生;（3）俯冲带地震与浅地壳地震的特征有一定差异,因而有必要对俯冲带板内、板缘地震做专门分析和研究。     

不同类型俯冲带地震水平向地震动阻尼修正系数对比研究

基于日本KiK-Net、K-Net地震台网和太平洋地震工程中心（PEER）的14 713条地震动记录,比较了俯冲带地区浅壳上地幔地震、板内地震和板间地震的水平向地震动加速度反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）和位移反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）的差异,并进行了5%置信水平下的假设检验,探究了俯冲带地区不同地震类型对DMF的影响。结果显示:在大多数谱周期,不同地震类型的DMF存在统计意义上的显著差异;在低阻尼比中短周期时,加速度谱DMF和位移谱DMF基本相同;在高阻尼比长周期时,不同地震类型的加速度谱DMF差异大于位移谱DMF差异。研究表明:俯冲带地震水平向地震动DMF需要考虑不同地震类型的影响。     

Basin and crustal velocity structure models for the simulation of strong ground motions in the Kinki area,Japan

We constructed a prototype of the basin and crustal structure model for the Kinki area, southwest of Japan, for the simulation of strong ground motions of hypothetical crustal and subduction earthquakes. We collected results of the deep seismic velocity profiles obtained by the reflection experiments and seismic imaging results, which were conducted in the Kinki area. The obtained profiles give underground velocity structures of the crust, from the surface to the subducting slab. We also gather the basin velocity structure information of the Osaka, Kyoto, Nara, and Ohmi basins. To examine the applicability of the constructed velocity structure model to the ground motion simulation, we simulated waveforms of an intermediate size event occurred near the source area of the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. Simulated ground motions using the basin and crustal velocity structure model are fairly well reproducing the observations at most of stations, and the constructed basin and crustal velocity structure model is applicable for the long-period ground motion simulations.     

Response spectral attenuation relations for in-slab earthquakes in Indo-Burmese subduction zone

From an analysis of a limited number of strong-motion data recorded in northeast Indian region, the in-slab earthquakes along the Indo-Burmese subduction zone are found to be characterized by much larger ground motion amplitudes than that for the earthquakes along other subduction zones around the world. Specific type of source, propagation path and site geologic condition may perhaps simultaneously be responsible for such anomalous behaviour. The empirical attenuation relations developed by Atkinson and Boore [3] using a global database for subduction zone earthquakes have been therefore suitably modified to be more appropriate for the northeast India. The modified relationships are developed by combining the data for both horizontal and vertical components of motion. The response spectra of the accelerograms recorded in northeast India from earthquakes with widely varying magnitude and distance are, in general, found to match very well with the predictions from the modified attenuation model. The proposed model can thus be used to obtain more realistic estimate of the contribution of in-slab subduction zone earthquakes to seismic hazard in the northeast Indian region.     

Recipe for Predicting Strong Ground Motion from Crustal Earthquake Scenarios

We developed a recipe for predicting strong ground motions based on a characterization of the source model for future crustal earthquakes. From recent developments of waveform inversion of strong motion data used to estimate the rupture process, we have inferred that strong ground motion is primarily related to the slip heterogeneity inside the source rather than average slip in the entire rupture area. Asperities are characterized as regions that have large slip relative to the average slip on the rupture area. The asperity areas, as well as the total rupture area, scale with seismic moment. We determined that the areas of strong motion generation approximately coincide with the asperity areas. Based on the scaling relationships, the deductive source model for the prediction of strong ground motions is characterized by three kinds of parameters: outer, inner, and extra fault parameters. The outer fault parameters are defined as entire rupture area and total seismic moment. The inner fault parameters are defined as slip heterogeneity inside the source, area of asperities, and stress drop on each asperity based on the multiple-asperity model. The pattern of rupture nucleation and termination are the extra fault parameters that are related to geomorphology of active faults. We have examined the validity of the earthquake sources constructed by our recipe by comparing simulated and observed ground motions from recent inland crustal earthquakes, such as the 1995 Kobe and 2005 Fukuoka earthquakes.     

随机方法在地震烈度速报中的应用

我国地震监测台网间距大,很难实现大震发生时地震烈度分布图的快速编制.基于随机方法,利用历史小震数据反演地震动估计模型的参数,参考地震发生时获取的少量强震动数据,选取合适的震源参数,正演地震动场的分布.根据地震烈度与地震动参数的经验关系,实现地震烈度速报.本方法可以模拟大震的近断层地震动特征,对高烈度区的判断较目前常用的烈度速报方法更为合理.研究成果既可以用于首张烈度分布图的发布,还能够用于地震烈度的动态修正.     

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.     

Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone,Pacific Northwest

Strong ground motions are estimated for the Pacific Northwest assuming that large shallow earthquakes, similar to those experienced in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, may also occur on the Cascadia subduction zone. Fifty-six strong motion recordings for twenty-five subduction earthquakes ofM _s7.0 are used to estimate the response spectra that may result from earthquakesM _w<81/4. Large variations in observed ground motion levels are noted for a given site distance and earthquake magnitude. When compared with motions that have been observed in the western United States, large subduction zone earthquakes produce relatively large ground motions at surprisingly large distances. An earthquake similar to the 22 May 1960 Chilean earthquake (M _w 9.5) is the largest event that is considered to be plausible for the Cascadia subduction zone. This event has a moment which is two orders of magnitude larger than the largest earthquake for which we have strong motion records. The empirical Green's function technique is used to synthesize strong ground motions for such giant earthquakes. Observed teleseismicP-waveforms from giant earthquakes are also modeled using the empirical Green's function technique in order to constrain model parameters. The teleseismic modeling in the period range of 1.0 to 50 sec strongly suggests that fewer Green's functions should be randomly summed than is required to match the long-period moments of giant earthquakes. It appears that a large portion of the moment associated with giant earthquakes occurs at very long periods that are outside the frequency band of interest for strong ground motions. Nevertheless, the occurrence of a giant earthquake in the Pacific Northwest may produce quite strong shaking over a very large region.     

中国东北地区地震活动的动力背景及其时空特征分析

本文根据日本海沟、 西太平洋板块俯冲与中国东北地区深源地震的关系、 中国东北地区深源地震的平均震源机制结果以及日本海沟强震与中国东北地区浅源地震的关联性, 概述了中国东北地区地震活动的动力背景, 说明中国东北地区的深源地震与西太平洋板块俯冲具有成因上的联系, 中国东北深震是西太平洋板块高速度、 小倾角向欧亚大陆下俯冲的结果。 中国东北地区深源地震、 浅源地震的时空分布以及依据浅源地震的分期统计资料表明, 中国东北地区浅源地震经历了5个活动周期, 每个活动周期浅源地震的时空分布具有个性差异, 在此基础上, 分析了浅源地震每个活动周期结束地震时空分布特征, 发现每个活动周期结束地震前均经历了平均约4.19年的长时间平静, 结束地震以成对地震为主要表现形式。