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针对水文资料缺乏流域机器学习模型建模困难的问题,本文提出了基于长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）的区域化洪水预报方法。对水文气候相似区内各流域的水文及地形地貌特征数据进行归一化处理,以消除局地因素的影响,从而构建相似区内建模统一数据集,扩大样本数量,为建立乏资料流域洪水预报模型提供了可能。本文选择胶东半岛作为研究区进行应用研究。为验证区域化模型在不同场景中的应用效果,设计了预报流域数据不参与建模,而仅根据区域内其他流域资料建模（区域化模型Ⅰ）,以及预报流域的部分数据参与建模（区域化模型Ⅱ）两种情景;此外,选取仅根据预报流域数据训练的单流域模型作为基准模型进行对比分析。结果表明,对本次研究的水文资料短缺流域,两种区域化模型均取得了较好效果,且都优于单流域模型。相较而言,考虑了预报流域数据的区域化模型精度更高,说明在区域化LSTM构建中融入预报流域的数据,可进一步提升区域化模型的精度。研究成果可为乏资料地区的洪水预报提供参考。 相似文献
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2007 年太湖大规模蓝藻暴发,再次引起了人们对太湖环境的关注.有效地提取蓝藻水华信息对分析蓝藻动态分布有重要意义.而卫星遥感技术是进行太湖水质监测与保护的措施之一.本文以2007年4月23日CBERS-02星CCD数据为主要的数据源,以NDVI值为测试变量,运用CART算法确定分割阈值,从而通过构建决策树的方法识别蓝藻水华信息,分析其蓝藻水华的提取结果,取得了较好的效果.文中还在GIS技术支持下,提取了2007年5月17日MODIS影像中的蓝藻水华信息.本次研究为以后开展长期的太湖蓝藻水华动态监测提供技术参考. 相似文献
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水体富营养化引起的蓝藻水华问题,是我国湖泊面临的主要环境问题,亟需加强现状监测和变化研究;我国自主研发的环境(HJ)卫星空间分辨率高,重访周期短,可用于长时间序列蓝藻水华的动态监测.本文利用HJ卫星CCD数据,通过自动控制散点回归的方法进行相对辐射校正,再将归一化植被指数和像元生长算法相结合,提出了一种可业务化运行的蓝藻水华高精度提取算法.该算法的优点为:(1)水华提取时具有统一的阈值,解决了以往一景影像一个阈值,无法大规模批处理的难题;(2)通过对像元进行线性分解,精度可达到亚像元级别.利用该算法对太湖2009—2014年蓝藻水华进行监测,发现2013—2014年太湖蓝藻水华较以往暴发面积偏小.研究表明,该算法对蓝藻水华识别能力强,自动化程度和水华提取精度高,可作为业务化算法运行. 相似文献
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东江流域在广东省政治、经济和社会中占有重要地位,域内新丰江、枫树坝和白盆珠3大水库的来水量直接影响区域生产生活供水.面对水库群联合调度新要求,本文利用Copula函数构建了3大水库入库流量的二维和三维联合分布,分析其丰枯遭遇概率,主要结论如下:(1)3大水库两两间丰枯同步的概率大于丰枯异步的概率,非汛期丰枯同步的概率大于汛期.其中,白盆珠与新丰江、枫树坝丰枯异步的概率相对较大,这为其与另两个水库丰枯互补提供了可能;(2)三维联合分布显示,3大水库丰枯同步的概率在全年、汛期和非汛期均较大,依次为42.29%、41.74%和51.99%,其中同丰和同枯的概率远大于同平的概率.枫树坝与新丰江对下游具有补偿能力的概率分别为29.81%和23.03%,不具有补偿能力的概率分别为32.75%和22.32%;(3)利用3大水库的联合分布,可获得各水库不同入库流量遭遇的概率以及特定概率下各水库入库流量的可能组合,对3大水库联合优化调度具有重要的理论与实践价值. 相似文献
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我国淡水湖库频发水华,不同类群形成的水华特征、危害及其治理方法差异显著,因此,如何区分不同藻种的遥感反射率特征,获取湖泊优势种信息是一个亟待解决的科学问题。研究基于室内藻种培养实验,培养了富营养化湖泊中的典型蓝藻和绿藻藻种,其中,蓝藻包括铜绿微囊藻（Microcystis aeruginosa）、假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaenasp．）和束丝藻（Aphanizomenonsp．）,绿藻包括小球藻（Chlorellasp．）以及四尾栅藻（Scenedesmus quadricauda）;基于实测的遥感反射率,经归一化处理后,分析了不同藻种的遥感反射率特征,构建了DI(difference index)指数以及ADI(algae distinguish index)指数,建立了藻种分类模型,利用验证集数据进行检验,整体识别精度达77.55%,Kappa系数为0.7178。将分类方法应用于太湖野外实测遥感反射率数据集中,结果与实测的生物量数据有较好的匹配;将模型应用于太湖OLCI(ocean and land colour instrument)影像数据,获得了2019年12月和2020... 相似文献
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通过利用实时水文观测数据对洪水预报模型进行校正,可增加流域洪水预报的实时性和精确度.本文讨论了水文模型状态变量选取对滤波效果的影响,并给出了状态变量选取原则.在集总式新安江模型的基础上,结合状态变量选取原则,应用无迹卡尔曼滤波技术构建了新安江模型的实时校正方法.方法应用于闽江邵武流域洪水预报的计算结果表明,采用无迹卡尔曼滤波方法后,不仅能够直接校正模型状态,同时也能有效地提高模型预报精度,适合应用于实际流域洪水预报作业中. 相似文献
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全球变暖以及人类活动导致世界各地出现了更为频繁与强烈的热浪事件,给湖泊生态系统稳定和健康带来了潜在的挑战。全球范围内具有满足热浪事件影响研究的长序列逐日连续水温数据记录的湖泊不多。鉴于此,本文利用MODIS11A1逐日地表温度产品结合BP神经网络获取太湖2000—2022年的逐日昼、夜表层水温,并分析太湖昼、夜间热浪特征与趋势。结果显示：基于此得到的逐日水温数据与实测值高度吻合。在季节上,春季和夏季昼、夜间热浪较为频繁,同时持续时间较长,热浪重现时间较短;相比于昼间热浪,夏季夜间热浪表现出更为频繁、持续时间更长、强度较弱的特性。年尺度上,太湖昼、夜间热浪的频次和年持续时间显著增加,热浪的重现时间缩短。通过相关性与贡献度分析发现,风速对太湖水体热浪次数、持续时间和上升与下降速率具有较高且显著的贡献（昼: 8.9%~60.5%;夜: 16.4%~53.4%）。对于昼、夜同时发生的复合热浪事件,结果显示多发生于春季和夏季,并表现出更长的持续时间与更高的强度。本文通过太湖的研究,为其他缺少长序列实测水温数据的湖泊开展热浪规律及其生态效应的研究提供了思路和参考。 相似文献
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黑河流域陆地水储量变化对流域下游等周边区域水资源的合理利用以及经济和社会发展等有着重要的意义.本文利用2003年1月至2013年12月的GRACE RL05数据反演了黑河流域陆地水储量长时间序列的变化,并针对重力场模型和数据处理中产生的信号泄漏问题,采用Forward-Modeling方法进行了改正并恢复泄漏信号;将GRACE获得的泄漏信号恢复前后的黑河流域水储量变化结果与全球水文模型GLDAS和CPC进行比较分析,结果表明泄漏信号改正后的结果与水文模型结果的时间序列相关性均有明显提高,从其空间分布结果可以看出Forward-Modeling方法有效地恢复初始信号、增强被湮没的信号,泄漏信号误差减小;通过分析黑河流域水储量变化的长时间序列结果,发现其具有明显的阶段性变化特征,即2003—2006年呈明显下降趋势,约为-0.86 cm·a-1,在2007—2010年趋于平衡状态,而2011—2013年则呈现缓慢上升趋势约为0.14 cm·a-1;联合GRACE数据和GLDAS数据反演了黑河流域地下水储量变化,并与全球降雨数据GPCC进行了比较分析,两者相关性可达到0.88以上. 相似文献
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Streamflow variability in space and time critically affects anthropic water uses and ecosystem services. Unfortunately, spatiotemporal patterns of flow regimes are often unknown, as discharge measurements are usually recorded at a limited number of hydrometric stations unevenly distributed along river networks. Advances in understanding the physical processes that control the spatial patterns of river flows are therefore necessary to predict water availability at ungauged locations or to extrapolate pointwise streamflow observations. This work explores the use of the spatial correlation of river flows as a metric to quantify the similarity between hydrological responses of two catchments. Following a stochastic framework, 340,000 cross‐correlations between pairs of daily streamflows time series are predicted at a seasonal timescale across the contiguous United States using 413 catchments of the MOPEX dataset. Model predictions of streamflow correlation obtained in absence of run‐off information are successfully used to identify catchment outlets sharing similar discharge dynamics and flow regimes across a broad range of geomorphoclimatic conditions, without relying on calibration. The selection of reference streamgauges based on predicted streamflow correlation generally outperforms the selection based on spatial proximity, especially as the density of available gauged sections decreases. Interestingly, correlated outlets share a broad spectrum of hydrological signatures (mean discharge, flow variability, and recession properties), suggesting that catchments forced by analogous frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events might exhibit common geomorphoecological traits leading to similar hydrological responses. The proposed framework provides a physical basis to assist the regionalization of flow dynamics and to interpret the spatial variability of flow regimes along stream networks. 相似文献
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AbstractSpatial error regression is employed to regionalize the parameters of a rainfall–runoff model. The approach combines regression on physiographic watershed characteristics with a spatial proximity technique that describes the spatial dependence of model parameters. The methodology is tested for the monthly abcd model at a network of gauges in southeast United States and compared against simpler regression and spatial proximity approaches. Unlike other comparative regionalization studies that only evaluate the skill of regionalized streamflow predictions in ungauged catchments, this study also examines the fit between regionalized parameters and their optimal (i.e. calibrated) values. Interestingly, the spatial error model produces parameter estimates that better resemble the optimal parameters than either of the simpler methods, but the spatial proximity method still yields better hydrologic simulations. The analysis suggests that the superior streamflow predictions of spatial proximity result from its ability to better preserve correlations between compensatory hydrological parameters.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei 相似文献
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It is often challenging to determine the appropriate level of spatial model forcing and model distribution in conceptual rainfall‐runoff modelling. This paper compares the value of incorporating both spatially distributed forcing data and spatially distributed model conceptualisations based on landscape heterogeneity, applied to the Ourthe catchment in Belgium. Distributed forcing data were used to create a spatial distribution of model states. Eight different configurations were tested: a lumped and distributed model structure, each with four levels of model state distribution. The results show that in the study catchment the distributed model structure can in general better reproduce the dynamics of the hydrograph, and furthermore, that the differences in performance and consistency between calibration and validation are smallest for the distributed model structure with distributed model states. For the Ourthe catchment, it can be concluded that the positive effect of incorporating a distributed model structure is larger than that of incorporating distributed model states. Distribution of model structure increases both model performance and consistency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Abstract The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge. 相似文献
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Elizabeth W. Boyer George M. Hornberger Kenneth E. Bencala Diane M. McKnight 《水文研究》1997,11(12):1635-1647
The spatial distribution of source areas and associated residence times of water in the catchment are significant factors controlling the annual cycles of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in Deer Creek (Summit County, Colorado). During spring snowmelt (April–August 1992), stream DOC concentrations increased with the rising limb of the hydrograph, peaked before maximum discharge, then declined rapidly as melting continued. We investigated catchment sources of DOC to streamflow, measuring DOC in tension lysimeters, groundwater wells, snow and streamflow. Lysimeter data indicate that near-surface soil horizons are a primary contributor of DOC to streamflow during spring snowmelt. Concentrations of DOC in the lysimeters decrease rapidly during the melt period, supporting the hypothesis that hydrological flushing of catchment soils is the primary mechanism affecting the temporal variation of DOC in Deer Creek. Time constants of DOC flushing, characterizing the exponential decay of DOC concentration in the upper soil horizon, ranged from 10 to 30 days for the 10 lysimeter sites. Differences in the rate of flushing are influenced by topographical position, with near-stream riparian soils flushed more quickly than soils located further upslope. Variation in the amount of distribution of accumulated snow, and asynchronous melting of the snowpack across the landscape, staggered the onset of the spring flush throughout the catchment, prolonging the period of increased concentrations of DOC in the stream. Streamflow integrates the catchment-scale flushing responses, yielding a time constant associated with the recession of DOC in the stream channel (84 days) that is significantly longer than the time constants observed for particular locations in the upper soil. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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G. Ravazzani D. Bocchiola B. Groppelli A. Soncini M.C. Rulli F. Colombo 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1013-1016
AbstractFlood frequency estimation is crucial in both engineering practice and hydrological research. Regional analysis of flood peak discharges is used for more accurate estimates of flood quantiles in ungauged or poorly gauged catchments. This is based on the identification of homogeneous zones, where the probability distribution of annual maximum peak flows is invariant, except for a scale factor represented by an index flood. The numerous applications of this method have highlighted obtaining accurate estimates of index flood as a critical step, especially in ungauged or poorly gauged sections, where direct estimation by sample mean of annual flood series (AFS) is not possible, or inaccurate. Therein indirect methods have to be used. Most indirect methods are based upon empirical relationships that link index flood to hydrological, climatological and morphological catchment characteristics, developed by means of multi-regression analysis, or simplified lumped representation of rainfall–runoff processes. The limits of these approaches are increasingly evident as the size and spatial variability of the catchment increases. In these cases, the use of a spatially-distributed, physically-based hydrological model, and time continuous simulation of discharge can improve estimation of the index flood. This work presents an application of the FEST-WB model for the reconstruction of 29 years of hourly streamflows for an Alpine snow-fed catchment in northern Italy, to be used for index flood estimation. To extend the length of the simulated discharge time series, meteorological forcings given by daily precipitation and temperature at ground automatic weather stations are disaggregated hourly, and then fed to FEST-WB. The accuracy of the method in estimating index flood depending upon length of the simulated series is discussed, and suggestions for use of the methodology provided.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
17.
The response of intermittent catchments to rainfall is complex and difficult to model. This study uses the spatially distributed CATchment HYdrology (CATHY) model to explore how the frequency of daily rainfall (λ) can affect the hydrologic regime of intermittent catchments. After a multi-objective calibration and validation of CATHY against experimental measurements of streamflow and groundwater levels in a catchment used as a pasture, the role of λ in affecting streamflow characteristics was explored using different scenarios. With different values of λ for the dry and wet periods of the year, CATHY showed that a series of frequent rainfall events was often associated with incipient streamflow, independent of the season. Activation of streamflow during the wet season was related to multiple factors and was not often associated with the shallow groundwater levels near the outlet of the catchment. The interplay between rainfall depth and intensity acted as the most important factor for the generation of streamflow. Using the difference between accumulated rainfall and evapotranspiration as a measure of wetness, saturated subsurface flow mechanism generated streamflow in simulations with wetness at least three times larger than mean wetness of other simulations. Although groundwater uprise near the outlet did not effectively contribute to streamflow in the initial days of flow, it strongly correlated with the magnitude of the runoff coefficient. Values of λ close or equal to the maximum value in the wet season can sustain the connectivity between groundwater and streamflow in the riparian zone. This connectivity increases the catchment wetness, which consequently results in an increase of the generated streamflow. Our study showed that rainfall regimes characterized by different λ were able to identify distinct flow regimes typical of either intermittent, ephemeral, or nonflowing catchments. Decrease of λ in the wet season is likely associated with a reduction of streamflow, with a shift of flow regime from intermittent to ephemeral or no-flow. 相似文献
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The generalization of the parameters of rainfall–runoff models, to enable application at ungauged sites, is an important and ongoing area of research. This paper compares the performance of three alternative methods of generalization, for two parameter‐sparse conceptual models (PDM and TATE), specifically for use in flood frequency estimation using continuous simulation. Two of the methods are based on fitting regression relationships between catchment properties and calibrated parameter values, using weighted or sequential regression (with weights based on estimates of calibration uncertainty), and the third is based on the use of pooling groups, defined through measures of site‐similarity based on catchment properties. The study uses a relatively large sample of catchments in Britain. For the PDM, the site‐similarity method performs best, but not greatly better than either regression method, so there may be cases where the use of regression would be preferable. For the TATE model, weighted regression performs best (with a very similar level of performance to that of the PDM with site‐similarity), whereas site‐similarity performs worst (due to poor performance for catchments with higher baseflow), indicating that the choice of model and generalization method should not be separated. The use of sequential regression, which was developed to try to allow for parameter interdependence, shows no clear advantage for either model. Other than the poor performance of the TATE model with site‐similarity for catchments with a higher baseflow index, there are no clear relationships between performance of any model/method and catchment type. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Two alternative schemes are presented that are appropriate for the representation of runoff routing in large-scale grid-based hydrological models and atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The first scheme characterizes routing processes as a single conceptual store. The second scheme, developed by Naden (1992), uses the normalized network width function to characterize the channel network form and a linear solution to the convective diffusion equation of one-dimensional flow to characterize the routing effect of a single channel. Both schemes are applied to the Severn catchment at the daily time-scale for the period 1981 to 1990 using a grid resolution of 40 km. Comparable results were obtained using both schemes (efficiencies were of the order of 80% in both cases). A combined model using a conceptual reservoir to represent hillslope routing and the network-based scheme to represent channel routing was developed to investigate the relative roles of hillslope and channel routing at the catchment scale. The application of this model demonstrated the important role of hillslope routing in reproducing the low frequency component of the catchment response. However, in terms of goodness-of-fit there was little to choose between the three schemes. Consequently, it is recommended that additional a priori knowledge of the routing processes should be used to condition the choice of model structure. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In this study we quantify the spatial variability of seasonal water balances within the Omo-Ghibe River Basin in Ethiopia using methods proposed within the Prediction in Ungauged Basins initiative. Our analysis consists of: (1) application of the rainfall–runoff model HBV-Light to several sub-catchments for which runoff data are available, and (2) estimation of water balances in the remaining ungauged catchments through application of the model with regionalized parameters. The analyses of the resulting water balance outcomes reveal that the seasonal water balance across the Omo-Ghibe Basin is driven by precipitation regimes that change with latitude, from being strongly “seasonal” in the north to “precipitation spread throughout the year, but with a definite wetter season” in the south. The basin is divided into two distinct regions based on patterns of seasonal water balance and, in particular, seasonal patterns of soil moisture storage.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis 相似文献
