时空统一的三维中国地磁场模式应用初步研究

利用１９５０．０，１９６０．０，１９７０．０，１９８０．０，１９９０．０等年代的地磁资料，建立了时空变量统一的三维中国地磁基本场模式。结果表明，所建立的时空变量统一的三维中国地磁基本场模式是成功的，可行的。本文还以此模式场作为正常场，计算出１９７０．０年中国地磁异常场，并把地磁异常与地质构造（岩性分布）相比较，发现两者有着密切的关系。     

1950—1995年中国地磁场时空统一模式的建立及应用的某些研究

本文利用１９５０－１９９５年长达４５年的地磁资料,建立了中国地磁基本场时空变量统一模式。然后,又以此模式场作为正常场,计算出１９７０年中国地磁异常场,并与地质构造相比较,发现二者有着密切的关系。     

大气—水耦合模式下三维太湖湖流场研究

利用太湖区域的大气边界层三维数值模式和三维水动力学数值模式。采用气－水耦合方法，对太湖的风生流特征进行了深入研究。结果表明，太湖区域大气边界层风场具有明显的时空变化特征，与均匀定常风作用下的太湖流场相比，大气－水耦合模式下太湖流场变化较大，形成稳定湖流场所需的时间也较长。三维模式计算出的流速值明显比二维模式大（表层约大一倍，整层平均约大５０％），且与实际观测值符合较好。故即使对于橡太湖这样的浅水湖     

大气-水耦合模式下三维太湖湖流场研究

利用太湖区域的大气边界层三维数值模式和三维水动力学数值模式,采用气-水耦合方法,对太湖的风生流特征进行了深入研究。结果表明,太湖区域大气边界层风场具有明显的时空变化特征,与均匀定常风作用下的太湖流场相比,大气-水耦合模式下太湖流场变化较大,形成稳定湖流场所需的时间也较长。三维模式计算出的流速值明显比二维模式大(表层约大一倍,整层平均约大50％),且与实际观测值符合较好。故即使对于像太湖这样的浅水湖泊,三维水动力学模式的应用仍然是很必要的。模拟结果中还发现湖流的上下流矢有时出现非常大的切变,甚至达到了180°。由于浅水湖中仍存在两个边界层(水-气和水-土),故浅水湖中存在流矢的巨大切变是可能的。     

中国及其邻区地球三维结构初始模型的建立

对人工地震测深及天然地震面波体波三维层折反演数据进行统一处理，建立了中国及其邻区地球三维结构初始模型．此模型图像表明，中国及其邻区地球各圈层横向变化明显．岩石圈及软流圈内速度分布主要反映这一区域自古生代以来板块及地块拼合模式．各主要板块或地块（塔里木、扬子、中朝、青藏、哈萨克斯坦、印度、印度支那）岩石圈增厚或有很深的地慢根，板块或地块间的造山带岩石圈减薄，软流圈速度降低。下地幔底部及核幔边界D″层出现高速异常，表明古太平洋及古特提斯洋俯冲板块因重力坍塌已进入地球深层，形成亚洲超级下降地幔柱。这一下降地幔柱引起地球表层物质向中亚、东亚地区集中，印度半岛、青藏高原、新疆、蒙古至贝加尔一带，成为全球岩石圈最大的汇聚场所．     

东北地震研究2004年总目次

第 2 0卷　　第 1期地震地表破裂发育特点及环境条件分析万　波　高常波　郑双成 ( 1 )………………………………东北地区地震活动规律及发展趋势研究孙文福　关英梅　李　芳　王连权　曹凤娟　焦明若 ( 9)………………………………………时空统一三维中国地磁场模式应用的初步研究李轶群　陈化然　张杰卿 ( 1 9)………………………浑河断裂 (沈阳～抚顺段 )活动性研究吴明大　钟以章　高常波　万　波　郑双成 ( 2 5 )…………本溪台地倾斜异常与沈阳满堂 4 1级地震魏学峰　戴爱平　刘　杰　佟　薇 ( 33)…………………盘锦台高七井地热映震…     

加卸载响应比与其它地震前兆时空演化研究及其应用

本文重点研究了加卸载响应比的时空演化特征 ,并利用震例研究了长期地震活动性的时空演变特征的普适性。为了理解以上特征及地震前兆综合特征 ,应用解析、数值模拟等方法对二维圆形包体、二维硬软复合包体进行了研究 ,并推导出半无限流变介质中三维包体产生的粘弹性位移、应变、地倾斜解析表达式 ,详细地计算和分析了球形包体在地表产生的体应变的时空演变过程 ,从而使孕震模型理论化。应用理论研究结果 ,对地震前兆的时空演化进行了解释 ,提出了长期预测和中短期预测方法 ,并应用于实践 ,取得 5次地震的长期、中期预测的成效。主要结果如下…     

重庆市GPS监测网

介绍了重庆市GPS监测网的建设。①由12个GPS观测站同“中国地壳运动观测网络”相联的重庆市GPS监测网,构成了一个覆盖全重庆市的高精度、高时空分辨率、准动态的三维地壳运动观测网。②重庆市GPS监测网观测资料,利用GAMIT／GLOBK9．93（Linux）软件进行数据处理,采用松弛解处理模式和精密星历,并利用IGS跟踪站进行约束。③GPS观测资料经整体平差后,基线长度中误差小于4mm,基线相对中误差为10^-9量级。     

层析成像技术在多相流中的研究动态

在多相流检测中,层析成像技术可获取多相流体二维/三维的时空局部的、微观的分布信息,是目前多相流参数检测技术研究发展的前沿和趋势之一.本文较系统阐述了国内外应用电阻层析、电容层析、射线层析、超声层析技术进行多相流检测的原理、研究现状以及层析成像技术在多相流应用方面的发展.     

基于共形几何代数的GIS三维空间数据模型

利用共形几何代数(CGA)多维表达的统一性、几何意义的明确性及运算的坐标无关性等优势,构建了基于其上的GIS三维空间数据模型:通过建立不同维度地理对象与Clifford代数基本要素(Blades)的映射,实现代数空间中不同维度、不同类型地理对象统一表达与运算,并基于内积、外积实现了内蕴不同维度层次构建及度量关系的几何形体构建;构建了基于CGA的三维GIS空间数据模型整体架构、数据存储结构和编辑、更新机制,并基于CGA几何与拓扑运算基本算子,实现面向对象的三维GIS几何和拓扑分析功能;某小区三维数据的实例演示表明,基于CGA的三维GIS空间数据模型可有效表达不同维度的复杂几何形体,且几何和拓扑关系运算具有简明、高效等特点,具备支撑三维乃至时空GIS数据模型的潜力.     

Knowledge,transparency, and refutability in groundwater models,an example from the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

This work demonstrates how available knowledge can be used to build more transparent and refutable computer models of groundwater systems. The Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, which surrounds a proposed site for a high level nuclear waste repository of the United States of America, and the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), where nuclear weapons were tested, is used to explore model adequacy, identify parameters important to (and informed by) observations, and identify existing old and potential new observations important to predictions. Model development is pursued using a set of fundamental questions addressed with carefully designed metrics. Critical methods include using a hydrogeologic model, managing model nonlinearity by designing models that are robust while maintaining realism, using error-based weighting to combine disparate types of data, and identifying important and unimportant parameters and observations and optimizing parameter values with computationally frugal schemes. The frugal schemes employed in this study require relatively few (10–1000 s), parallelizable model runs. This is beneficial because models able to approximate the complex site geology defensibly tend to have high computational cost. The issue of model defensibility is particularly important given the contentious political issues involved.     

中层顶区域钾层静态模型的初步建立

以流星烧蚀为源,大气沉降为汇,并利用连续方程和涡旋扩散方程为动力学控制方程,求解总含钾成分随高度的分布,再根据各含钾成分之间闭合的化学反应,计算每个高度处各含钾成分的浓度配比,初步建立了一个钾层静态模型.本文详细的阐述了钾层静态模型的建立过程,输入参数和模拟结果.此模型能够模拟出钾原子浓度随高度的分布,并与北京激光雷达观测的钾原子浓度的夜间年平均曲线进行了对比.钾层峰值密度和质心高度的模拟值与观测值仅相差0.2%和0.7%,但柱密度和RMS宽度的模拟值却比观测值明显偏小.模拟结果与观测并不完全一致,其差别主要来自于钾层的下部.钾层静态模型的建立和不断完善为研究钾层的特性和演化规律提供了有力的支撑.     

岩石的粘弹性谐振Q模型

实验表明,在应变小于10^-6范围内,砂岩对地震波的吸收主要由孔隙流体的局部运动引起,而且Q值随频率的变化出现谐振现象。据此,作者认为,地壳上部地震波能量的耗损可以表示为以下两种成分的线性组合:1.由滑动摩擦、热弹性驰豫、位错运动等引起的能量消散,它们主要与岩石的固相成分有关,可近似地用恒Q模型描述;2.由孔隙流体运动引起的能量消散,可以用谐振公式描述。根据这一认识,利用描述因果关系的Kramers-Krnig关系式可推导出表示地壳上部岩石粘弹性（复弹性模量,相速度频散和衰减函数）的公式,它们综合地描述了由各种机制引起的波的频散和吸收,并在谐振Q值等于参考常数Q值时退化为目前常用的Futterman模型。作为这种谐振Q模型的应用,介绍了它用于Q值测量结果外推和频散一吸收研究以及粘弹性介质中反射地震道合成的结果。     

Temporal and spatial circulation patterns in the East Frisian Wadden Sea

This work deals with the analysis of simulations carried out with a primitive equation numerical model for the region of the East Frisian Wadden Sea. The model, with 200-m resolution, is forced by wind, air–sea heat, and water fluxes and river runoff and is nested in a German Bight 1-km-resolution numerical model, the latter providing tidal forcing for the fine resolution model. The analysis of numerical simulations is focused both on responses due to moderate conditions, as well as to extreme events, such as the storm surge Britta, for which the model demonstrates very good skills. The question addressed in this paper is how well the model output can be compressed with the help of empirical orthogonal function analysis. It is demonstrated that, for the short-time periods of the order of a spring–neap cycle, only a few modes are necessary to almost fully represent the circulation. This is just an illustration that the circulation in this region is subject to the dominating tidal forcing, creating clear and relatively simple response patterns. However, for longer periods of about several months, wind forcing is also very important, and correspondingly, the circulation patterns become much more complex. Possible applications of the results in hindcasting and forecasting of hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics in the coastal zone are considered.     

库仑应力变化与余震对应关系的初步探讨——以集集地震为例

本文以集集地震为例,讨论了在多个小断层的位错模型,分层地质结构这种更加接近实际的情况下的库仑应力变化,计算结果表明有必要考虑这些符合实际的模型.本文分别讨论了走滑断层上库仑应力变化与走滑地震、逆冲断层上库仑应力变化与逆冲地震空间分布的对应关系,计算结果表明集集地震所引起的库仑应力变化确实有利于本地区余震的发生.     

Results from a new model of river basin evolution

This paper briefly describes a model of the erosional development of catchments and their channel networks. The model differentiates between the dominant transport processes in hillslope and channels. The development of channels and hillslopes occurs in an integrated manner as a function of physically observable mechanisms. The growth of a river basin is qualitatively described. The model concepts are used to study the basin during periods of growth (transient periods), as well as during dynamic equilibrium. This leads to hypotheses about the relationship between slopes, relief, tectonic uplift, erodability, runoff, and catchment area. It is shown that the model leads to very reasonable and desirable behaviour of hillslopes during retreat and degradation.     

滑动弱化模型下的库仑应力变化与远程触发问题

地震断层破裂在周围固体介质中能产生静态附加应力场.当依据库仑破裂准则和破裂模型推测构造应力变化,用以判断能否触发某处断层破裂时,这种应力变化称作"库仑破裂应力变化".一次地震产生的"库仑应力变化"被认为能影响下一次地震的发生.讨论了计算"库仑应力变化"所采用的不同模型,指出伏尔泰拉错动模型不能真实反映震源参数,因而所给...     

Characteristics of Strain Release before Large Earthquakes of M≥7. 0 in the Chinese Mainland

The enumerating algorithm has been introduced into the fitting procedure of the ASR model. Based on the detailed study of 21 large earthquakes with M≥6. 8 in the Chinese Mainland,the statistical features of seismic strain release before large earthquakes have been summarized. In the mass,the strain release models can be divided into five types. The first is the DA model,in which the strain release accelerates in broader areas and decelerates in small areas around the epicenter. Approximately 38% of earthquake samples are of this type. The second is the AD model,in which the strain release decelerates in broader areas and accelerates in smaller areas around the epicenter with an occupying ratioof approximately 19%. The third is ASR,in which only accelerating strain release can be observed. Cases of this model amount to about 14%. The fourth is DSR,in which only decelerating strain release can be checked,amounting to about 24%. There is only one earthquake sample of the fifth type (LSR),which shows a linear strain release. There is a 3～6 years difference in the duration of pre-shock sequences between the accelerating and decelerating models. This means that seismic quiescence against a background of increased seismicity of small earthquakes before large earthquakes are a typical feature in general. For the DA model,the average size of critical regions for steady accelerating and decelerating strain release is about 260km to 400km and 100km to 200km,respectively,3 to 5 times and 1 to 2 times the rupture size of an earthquake of magnitude 7. 0. The AD model is the opposite of the DA model. The model parameter,m value,has good stability. The ratio of ASR is about the same for accelerating seismic strain release phenomena,no matter what the strain release models are,or how large the strain release quantity is. With regard to decelerating seismic strain release phenomena, the DA model has the most distinctive decelerating strain release characteristic and is the typical feature of seismic strain release,i. e. "decelerating in-accelerating out seismic strain model".     

The rate of bedrock weathering by frost action: Field measurements and a predictive model

Shattering rate, surface temperature, moisture content, and the physical and strength properties of bedrock were measured in four rockwall sites of the Japanese Alps. Five-year observations revealed that the bedrock shattering rate was usually much higher in the freeze-thaw period from October to next May than in the frost-free period from June to September. This indicates that frost action is the most important shattering process, although unusual heavy rainstorms in summer are also responsible for the shattering. A combination of some empirical relationships derived from recent laboratory experiments leads to a predictive model of the frost shattering rate. This model shows that the annual shattering rate is dependent on the annual freeze-thaw frequency on the rock surface, and the degree of saturation and tensile strength of the rock masses. The coefficients involved in the model were determined using the field data.     

Valuation and use of complex ecosystems: An economist's view

This paper surveys approaches to the economic valuation of ecosystems and the determination of their optimal utilisation. The components of the value of ecosystems are defined and methods of measurement are presented. Also discussed is a simple model of the economic use of a dynamic ecological system. Economically optimal trajectories are shown and scenarios are presented in which it is economically optimal to destroy the ecosystem. Particular problems arise if the ecosystem is a common-property resource as is often the case with marine ecosystems. This issue is also addressed. Moreover, the paper presents some extensions of the model that add complexity and uncertainty.