太原盆地地震监测能力的判定

利用太原遥测地震台网观测到的１９８６年９月至１９９０年１２月发生在太原盆地的可交切震中的７３６个地震，选取多种方法，对盆地的监测能力进行判定，给出了监控下限值，并提出对盆地内台风布局的建议。     

辽宁省重力异常指标体系研究

以辽宁省近年来流动重力观测数据为基础,统计监测区内主要地震事件(灯塔M5.1;朝阳M4.6;海城M4.4)与重力变化的对应关系,通过分析重力时变特征,提取重力异常判定指标,构建定量指标体系,提高重力学科在地震监测中的预报效能。研究结果从定性和定量两方面完整的给出了辽宁省M5.0±0.5震级档重力异常判定指标,同时对M6.0以上强震预判提供了科学参考。     

地电阻率多极距观测系统及试验研究

目前, 我国用于地震前兆监测的地电阻率观测系统大部分都是单一极距的, 这种观测方法在实际观测中普遍存在着地电阻率季节性变化的现象, 这种季节性变化与地震异常变化一起叠加在观测值中, 给地震异常的识别和判定带来了一定困难。 而解决这一问题的有效途径就是进行地电阻率的多极距观测。 本文介绍了采用ZD8MI电阻率多极距观测系统在山丹地震台的试验观测情况, 该系统是最新研制的、 专用于地震前兆监测的地电阻率多极距观测系统。 一年多的台站试验观测和反演结果表明, 浅层电阻率的变化相对较大, 而深层的相对变化较小, 因此利用多极距观测系统进行不同层位的地电阻率观测, 对排除干扰和识别地震前兆信息显得尤为重要, 是地电阻率观测技术发展的一个趋势。     

地震地电阻率数据处理方法

本文总结了消除地电阻率现测资料中干扰的数据处理方法和地震地电阻率异常的判定方法,分析了它们的优缺点及适用条件,可为地电阻率观测资料的系统分析处理提供参考,有助于更好地利用地电阻率观测来为地震监测预报服务.     

低成本地磁场监测设备的设计与实现

为能够在短时间内建成区域高密度地磁场观测台网,实现地磁场数据成网、成片观测,需要解决精准捕捉极震区特大震前磁场异常现象的问题。项目组利用物联网通信技术,基于RM3100三轴磁传感器,开发低成本地磁场监测设备,并部署在天津市宝坻区、武清区,同时利用人工智能数据分析技术和时序数据存储技术,开展地震前兆异常自动判定和可视化预报技术研究。该成果在2022年6月23日天津宝坻M2.0地震中得到了验证,说明低成本地磁场观测系统不仅对大震有察觉,对于近距离的中小地震同样敏感。     

基于实时观测数据快速判定地震破裂方向的方法研究

针对地震烈度速报工作中快速评估大震断层破裂方向的需求,使用我国西部多个地震的观测资料,根据有限移动源理论,利用趋势面分析方法探讨了震中一定范围内台站初始P波参数的方向差异特征,提出一种利用初始P波快速判定地震破裂断层方向的方法。并通过断层距模型和最小二乘法,统计回归最优拟合参数以确定地震断层破裂方式。通过实际震例对比分析了根据所提方法获得的判定结果与实际地震断层破裂分布的吻合度,证实了方法的可用性。本研究为利用地震实时监测资料快速进行地震断层破裂方向判定提供了新思路,可为地震烈度速报中破裂方向的快速判定和动态修正提供参考。     

华北地区近期强震危险区判定与研究汇报会在石家庄召开

华北地区近期强震危险区判定与研究汇报会1984年9月19日至23日在石家庄召开。来自国家地震局分析预报中心、监测司、地质所、地球物理所、物探队、地震地质大队、测量队,以及山东省地震局、河北省地震局和应邀的兰州地震研究所代表近40人参加了会议。会议由马宗晋同志主持,监测司辛书庆同志也到会指导工作。会议交流的“近期强震危险区判定”成果,是介于地震烈度区划与前兆观测预报之间的难度较大的科研成果。它将对今后华北地区地震工作布署和地震危险区监视以及防震和抗震     

地震监测设施与观测环境保护工作探讨

在对地震监测设施及观测环境保护工作现状进行概述后，分析提出了加强地震监测设施及观测环境保护工作的措施和建议。     

山西永济风柏峪流动水准则观测的监测能力判定

用断层活动强度与地震的对应关系和经验公式估算发震震级的方法，分别对山西永济风柏峪流动水准观测进行了地震监测能力的判定。结果表明，该侧线对山西运城盆地及周边100km范围内ML≥4.0地震具有较好的映震能力。指出，这可作为为山西运城盆地及晋、陕、豫交界区地震预报的一种方法，可为该地区的防震减灾工作提供依据。     

空间观测技术在地震监测中的应用

当前地面地震监测系统主要观测单点的相对变化,由于观测台站密度低,观测资料覆盖面小,不能满足地震预测所需的信息。空间观测技术的发展提供了新的地震监测技术和方法,卫星空间监测技术具有覆盖面广、信息量大、动态性好以及分辨率高等优势,因而可提供更为丰富的地震前兆信息。岩石实验的结果和一些应用研究的结果显示,空间观测技术在地震监测中具有优越的应用前景。     

地震前后祁连山中段深部电性变化的跟踪研究

利用在青藏高原北缘第一个长约４００ｋｍ的ＭＴ重复监测剖面上所获得的地震前后最新的地表视电阻率资料，用一维ＭＴ反演方法得到了剖面古方电性结构随时间的变化。着重分析相当于大陆多震层深度范围内介质电阻率参数在地震前后的变化。结果表明，地下电阻率的变化呈现分区特征，并与剖面附近地震的强度及位置有关。     

甘肃景泰MS5.9地震前后小地震视应力计算讨论

分析处理甘肃数字化地震台网记录到的1999年11月至2000年6月的68个地震，给出了甘肃景泰2000年6月6日Ms5．9地震前后小地震的视应力变化情况，得到该区的视应力水平，并讨论了主震前后的视应力演化特征以及视应力与震级的关系。     

THE MECHANISM OF DIURNAL VARIATION IN CONSECUTIVE APPARENT RESISTIVITY OBSERVATION

Parts of the consecutive apparent resistivity monitoring stations of China have recorded clear diurnal variations. The relative amplitudes of diurnal variations at these stations range from 1.3‰ to 5.8‰. The daily accuracies of apparent resistivity observation are better than 1‰, because the background electromagnetic noise is rather low at these stations. Therefore, the diurnal variations of apparent resistivity recorded at these stations are real phenomena. The diurnal variation shapes can be divided into two opposite types according to their characteristics. One type is that the apparent resistivity data decreases during the daytime but increases during the nighttime(Type 1). The other type is the apparent resistivity data increases during the daytime but decreases during the nighttime(Type 2). There is a correspondence between the diurnal and annual variation patterns of apparent resistivity. For the monitoring direction with diurnal variation of Type 1, the apparent resistivity decreases in summer and increases in winter. However, for the monitoring direction with diurnal variation of Type 2, the apparent resistivity increases in summer and decreases in winter. We take an analysis on the mechanism of apparent resistivity diurnal variation, combining the influence factors of water-bearing medium's resistivity, the electric structure of stations, and the apparent resistivity sensitivity coefficient(SC)theory. Intuitively, diurnal variation of apparent resistivity is caused by diurnal variation of medium resistivity in the measured area. The diurnal variation of medium resistivity will inevitably be caused by the factors with diurnal variation. Among the possible factors, there is diural variation in earth tide and temperature. Our analysis displays that apparent resistivity diurnal variation is not caused by the usually-believed earth tide, but by the ground temperature difference between daytime and nighttime. The earth tide strain is too small to cause remarkable effects on the apparent resistivity data. On the other hand, the daily tide strain has two peak-valley variations, and its phase and amplitude has a period of approximate 28 days. However, the apparent resistivity data do not show these corresponding features to earth tide. Furthermore, the detection range of current apparent resistivity stations is within a depth of several hundred meters. Within this depth range, the medium deformation caused by solid tide can be regarded as uniform change. Therefore, all monitoring directions and all stations will have the same pattern of diurnal variation. In general, the temperature increases in the daytime but decreases in the nighttime. For most water-bearing rock and soil medium, its resistivity decreases as temperature increases and increases as temperature decreases. Diurnal temperature difference affects about 0.4m of soil depth. Therefore, resistivity of this surface thin soil layer decreases in the daytime while increases in the nighttime. Under layered medium model, SC of each layer represents its contribution to the apparent resistivity. For the stations with positive SC of surface layer, apparent resistivity decreases in the daytime but increases in the nighttime. While for the stations with negative SC of surface layer, apparent resistivity diurnal variations display the opposite shape.     

DEEP TECTONIC STRESS CHANGE BASED ON LONG-TERM APPARENT RESISTIVITY TIME SERIES: A CASE STUDY FROM NORTH SECTION OF YISHU FAULT ZONE

Almost all the destructive earthquakes, so called tectonic earthquake, are produced by tectonic movement. The tectonic movement will cause resistivity changes in the earth. It's valuable for strong earthquake forecast to study the relationship between the resistivity change and tectonic movement. According to magnetotelluric sounding method, we establish a robust estimate method to calculate the long-term apparent resistivity from seismic station monitoring data. We first use 1D layered earth models to test the sensitivity of this method. Then we process the continually observed long term electromagnetic data in 4 years (from 2011 to 2014) from Anqiu seismic station which is very close to the north section of Yishu fault zone. The apparent resistivity curves and the apparent resistivity time series for different frequencies are obtained. The time series show the resistivity increase in the selected 4 years, which is in good agreement with the GPS baseline data. This also satisfies the results from rock mechanics experiments on deep rocks (upper mantle) that the resistivity will increase with improved stress in a high temperature and pressure environment. The method is valuable for studying electromagnetic precursor of strong earthquakes and strong earthquake prediction.     

1990年共和7.0级地震和景泰6.2级地震前的短临弱前兆信息

应用作研究的提取弱短临前兆信息的方法及定量指标^[2]，对1990年甘肃、青海、宁夏、陕西四省（区）部分专业台4种手段、31个台（项）的观测资料进行了处理。结果表明，在1990年共和7．0级地震和景泰6．2级地震前，约占总数65％的台项均出现了弱前兆异常。事实进一步证明，作提出的提取弱短临前兆信息的方法是有效和实用的。     

强地震附近电阻率对称四极观测的探测深度

针对我国地震监测预报中固定地点和固定观测装置及参数的视电阻率观测,给出了半空间倾斜各向异性介质中电阻率对称四极观测的理论探测深度,研究了地震前兆信息的检测深度问题,得到：(1)在强地震、孕震晚期阶段,在震中区及附近可检测到地壳近地表较深部介质的电阻率变化,其深度大于或远大于均匀介质之;(2)震级、震中距、观测方向不同或在不同的孕震阶段,探测深度存在差异,甚至存在大的差异,且是动态变化的.并依据理论探测深度讨论了地震视电阻率前兆变化的复杂性、地电台址电性条件等问题.     

台址下表层介质电阻率变化对视电阻率观测值影响特征的初步研究

气候的交替变化将导致大地表层含水量发生变化，从而使该层介质的电阻率发生变化，进而使得观测结果(即视电阻率)发生变化，显然这对地震前兆观测而言是一种干扰。目前我国绝大多数前兆地电阻率台采用单极距观测方式，因此观测到的视电阻率变化应是表层变化(主要是干扰)和观测范围内深部变化(地下介质应力与应变状态发生变化)的综合反映。作先依据台址下的水平层状模型进行了模拟计算研究，发现大地表层含水量的变化对单极距四极装置视电阻率观测值的影响有两个特征：(1)无论台址下电阻率结构是下伏低阻还是下伏高阻，表层介质电阻率升高对观测值的影响都很小；(2)表层电阻率降低对观测值的影响很明显，且对下伏高阻结构的影响大于对下伏低阻结构的影响。然后用视电阻率实际观测资料说明了将其特征用于预报的可能性。     

Sensitivity of transversal apparent resistivity to the changes in electrical resistivity of the elements of a 2D geoelectrical structure

The sensitivity of transversal apparent resistivity to the changes in the electrical resistivity of elements of a two-dimensional (2D) geoelectrical structure is studied by numerical modeling. This sensitivity is found to have a series of specific features, due to which the monitoring of transversal apparent resistivity can serve as a helpful addition to the monitoring of longitudinal apparent resistivity to trace the dynamics of subsurface and shallow crustal elements of the medium. It is shown that the method previously suggested for the inversion of relative changes in apparent resistivity into relative changes in electrical resistivities of the elements of the geoelectrical structure is applicable to the transversal electrical resistivity.     

MT重复测量在地震中短期预报中的应用──祁连山中段MT剖面监测研究

本文研究了青藏高原北缘第一个长约４００ｋｍ的ＭＴ监测剖面上所获得的５次５－７级地震前后的资料。着重分析了在相当于大陆多震层深度范围内壳内介质的多种ＭＴ参数（视电阻率、相位、主轴方位角、扭曲度等）．这些ＭＴ参数在大范围内的同步－同相变化和局部区域之间的超前、滞后变化、相对变化幅度随震中距增大而衰减的特征，可能分别对应着构造孕育型大震的地区性场兆和构造运动型强震的区域性场兆，形成了地震活动大背景叠加小背景的一种链式关系。运用＂ＭＴ监测优显参数＂进行择优监测，将可能为大陆地震的震源物理发展过程和中短期预报提供丰富可靠的判据。     

MT重复测量在地震中短期预报中的应用──祁连山中段MT剖面监测研究

本文研究了青藏高原北缘第一个长约４００ｋｍ的ＭＴ监测剖面上所获得的５次５－７级地震前后的资料。着重分析了在相当于大陆多震层深度范围内壳内介质的多种ＭＴ参数（视电阻率、相位、主轴方位角、扭曲度等）．这些ＭＴ参数在大范围内的同步－同相变化和局部区域之间的超前、滞后变化、相对变化幅度随震中距增大而衰减的特征，可能分别对应着构造孕育型大震的地区性场兆和构造运动型强震的区域性场兆，形成了地震活动大背景叠加小背景的一种链式关系。运用＂ＭＴ监测优显参数＂进行择优监测，将可能为大陆地震的震源物理发展过程和中短期预报提供丰富可靠的判据。