COULOMB STRESS EVOLUTION AND SEISMIC HAZARD ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE SICHUAN-YUNNAN BLOCK

Using a more realistic model of multi-layered viscoelastic media, and considering the effects of the coseismic dislocation and the postseismic viscoelastic relaxation caused by the 34 great earthquakes occurring along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block since 1480 and the interseismic stress accumulation caused by the tectonic loading generated by plate motions which were modeled by introducing "virtual negative displacements" along the major fault segment in the region under study, we calculated the evolution of the Coulomb stress change in each fault plane of 18 major fault segments along the eastern boundary caused by the coseismic, postseismic and interseismic effects. We studied the interactions of the Xianshuihe, Anninghe, Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones on the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan block. By evaluating if the previous earthquake could bring another earthquake closer to or farther from failure, we analyzed the interactions of the earthquakes which occurred in the different segments in the same fault zone, or in the different fault zones respectively. And further based on the calculation results of the Coulomb stress change on the fault planes, we analyzed the seismic hazard of each fault segment.The results show that the previous earthquake may trigger another earthquake which can occur in the same fault zone or in the different fault zone. And the calculation results on the evolution of the cumulative Coulomb stress change in the each fault segment show that, the Coulomb stress increases significantly in the middle section and the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault zone, the Qiaojia-dongchuan segment and the Jianshui segment of the Xiaojiang fault zone, and the seismic hazard in these fault segments is worthy paying attention to.     

1833年嵩明8.0级地震对周围断层的影响

应用粘弹性计算程序,计算1833年嵩明8.0级大地震产生的同震和震后应力场变化,并计算对附近的小江断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带及云南境内红河断裂带造成的同震和震后库仑应力变化。结果表明,嵩明8.0级大地震对滇中南地区应力分布产生较大影响,对周围断层的影响甚至持续数百年的时间。嵩明8.0级地震使震中附近的小江断裂中段、安宁河断裂南段和红河断裂带中段库仑应力减小,降低发震危险;而小江断裂带南北段、安宁河断裂北段、则木河断裂带和红河断裂带南北两段库仑应力增加,地震危险性增强。红河断裂带中段在数百年时间尺度内始终处于嵩明8.0级地震库仑应力的减小区域,该研究结果有助于解释此断裂段的地震平静现象。     

川滇地区强震序列库仑破裂应力加卸载效应的数值模拟

通过建立较精细的川滇地区三维有限元模型,数值模拟了川滇地区主要活动断裂的强震活动对于其他活动断裂潜在强震孕育进程的库仑破裂应力加卸载效应.模拟结果显示在川滇地区主要活动断裂带的几何学展布形态和运动学性质的构造背景之上,川滇地区强震活动相互影响的主要特征是活动断裂面库仑破裂应力变化大多处于增大状态.其中,金沙江断裂带、小江断裂带、楚雄—建水断裂带、鲜水河断裂带和安宁河断裂带上的强震所产生的加载作用比较强,而丽江—小金河断裂带和腾冲—澜沧断裂带则较弱.1981~2000年川滇地区M≥6.5地震序列的模拟结果显示,后续地震全部位于已发生地震所引起的库仑破裂应力增大区之内.数值模拟结果显示,在川滇地区,一个强震发生之后,发震断层本身强烈卸载的同时,库仑破裂应力的加载效应在其他主要活动断裂带潜在强震孕育进程中占据了主导地位,强震活动之间相互作用的主要效应是应力加载,已发生的强震加速了下一个强震的孕育进程,进而导致一系列地震的发生,直至整个区域所积累的应变能处于较低水平之后,区域地震活动进入一个新的平静期.     

川滇菱形块体东边界库仑应力演化及强震发生概率估算

本研究基于分层黏弹介质模型,考虑强震或大地震同震位错、震后黏滞松弛及主断层段震间构造应力加载三方面效应,给出1480年以来,川滇菱形块体东边界鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带共20个断层段由三方面效应引起的累积库仑应力变化随时间的演化,分析强震间相互作用和强震发生的应力累积背景,定性分析各断层段的地震危险性.同时,分别采用现今台网地震目录和川滇菱形块体东边界各断层段强震复发间隔两种资料,定量计算2030年各断层段的强震发生概率;并基于摩擦本构理论,将周边强震引起的库仑应力变化量作为应力扰动,修正强震发生概率的计算结果.各断层段累积库仑应力演化的结果表明,鲜水河断裂带中部八美段、色拉哈段及南部磨西段、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带北部巧家-东川段和南部建水段的累积库仑应力显著增加.修正的强震发生概率计算结果显示,鲜水河断裂带中部八美-色拉哈-康定一带、安宁河断裂带冕宁-西昌段、小江断裂带南部华宁-建水一带强震发生概率较高,地震危险性值得关注.本研究基于库仑应力演化计算定性分析强震危险性的同时,基于摩擦本构律理论,结合地震引起的应力扰动和强震发生背景,定量计算修正的强震发生概率,为川滇菱形块体东边界强震危险地点及中长期发震紧迫程度判定提供方法和依据.     

THE COULOMB STRESS CHANGES AND SEISMICITY ON SOME MAJOR FAULTS IN NORTH CHINA

In recent years, the Coulomb stress change induced by large earthquakes has attracted extensive attention in seismology. Many scientists at home and abroad have made remarkable achievements in the research on it. It is well known that North China is densely populated and industrially developed. More importantly, the Chinese capital city, Beijing, lies in the hinterland of North China. At the same time, there are abundant active faults and earthquakes in North China. The capital Beijing is China's political, economic, cultural, and transportation center. It is the center of all social activities and economic activities in the country, and is also a region where population, wealth, and information are highly concentrated. With the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District, the consequences of big earthquake in Beijing and surrounding areas are unimaginable. Due to its special geographical location, frequent seismic activities in North China capture much attention. From the physical principle, the occurrence of earthquakes releases the accumulated stress, but the stress does not completely disappear. Some of the stresses are transmitted and transferred to other areas, resulting in stress concentration in some areas, which in turn affects the occurrence of earthquakes in the area. This is the idea of stress triggering of earthquakes. According to this hypothesis, the enhancement of Coulomb stress corresponds to the additional loading of the fault and promotes the occurrence of earthquakes; conversely, the weakening of the Coulomb stress in the stress shadow zone corresponds to partial unloading of the fault, which will delay the occurrence of the earthquake. In order to study the future seismic activity of North China, this paper estimates risks of future strong earthquakes in the region. To this end, we calculate the coseismic Coulomb stress changes and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation stresses of the events with M_S ≥ 6.0 that occurred in the North China region since 1820, using elastic dislocation theory and hierarchical lithosphere model, respectively, in order to examine whether the cumulative Coulomb stress change can explain the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquakes. Also we project the Coulomb stress change onto the specific active faults in North China and assign the present and future Coulomb stress change state to the faults to provide a dynamics reference for analyzing whether the areas will be hit by strong earthquakes in the future. The simulated results show that the effect caused by the effective friction coefficient changes is not significant on the spatial distribution of Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic and postseismic viscoelastic relaxation effect of the medium of earthquakes in the North China region. Although the variation of the effective friction coefficient has an impact on the Coulomb stresses for some sections of faults, the general pattern of the spatial distribution of the Coulomb stress changes keeps unchanged. Consequently, 19 of the 24 earthquakes since the 1888 Bohai Bay earthquake have fallen in the positive region of Coulomb stress changes, with a triggering rate of 79%. In particular, considering the seismogeological data and the Coulomb stress calculation results, we assume that Luanxian-Yueting Fault, Panzhuangxi Fault, Dongming-Chengwu Fault, Yuncheng Fault, Longyao Fault of Ninghe-Xinxiang seismic belt, the Yingkou-Weifang Fault of Tanlu seismic belt, the Xiadian Fault, and the Huangzhuang-Gaoliying Fault in the Capital area have higher seismic risk and deserve in-depth study.     

川滇地区断层相互作用的地震活动证据及有限元模拟

对川滇地区主要活动断裂地震活动性的分析表明 ,该区主要活动断裂间存在地震活动的相关性 :1)强震活跃期沿着鲜水河断裂、小江断裂、红河断裂、龙陵 -澜沧断裂及NE向的龙门山 -瑞丽断裂依次迁移 ;2 )鲜水河断裂与龙陵 -澜沧断裂不仅在强震活动上 ,而且在b值变化上存在较强的相关性 ,是平行断裂在区域应力场作用下相互作用的结果 ;3)龙门山 -瑞丽断裂与上述川滇地区其它近NW向断裂间存在地震交替活动的现象 ;4 )龙门山 -瑞丽断裂的地震具有分段活动的特征 ,是断块差异活动的体现。有限元分析显示 ,上述断层相互作用现象是块体非均匀运动过程中应力场调整的反映 ,是块体运动的结果。研究表明川滇地区主要断层地震活动间存在 3种相互作用的现象 ,即块体边界迁移型、旋向相反平行断层交替型和交叉断层交替型     

基于多学科物理观测的地震概率预测方法在川滇地区的应用

川滇地区是我国地震灾害最为严重的地区之一,地震灾害评估对该地区的防震减灾具有重要意义,概率地震危险性分析是量化地震危险性的有效手段.这一方法要求使用可获得的最佳资料来计算地震的长期发生率.通过对比美国加州地区与我国川滇地区积累的资料发现,目前川滇地区的资料积累水平与加州地区正在使用的第三版加州地震破裂预测模型（UCERF3）的要求还有差距,但已可进行多学科综合地震概率计算.通过收集川滇地区地震地质、大地测量和测震学等资料,计算了川滇菱形块体及周边地区不同震级地震的长期发生率,在此基础上给出了未来30年泊松与非泊松分布下峰值地表加速度超越概率的分布.结果显示,在目标峰值加速度较低时,鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带、小江断裂带、红河断裂带和小金河断裂带等川滇菱形块体主要边界带均具有较高的超越概率;在目标峰值加速度较高时,川滇菱形块体东边界的鲜水河断裂带、小江断裂带北段和南段以及莲峰—昭通断裂带仍具有较高的超越概率,但其中安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带中段概率相对较低.最后通过将本研究的结果与前人结果对比,讨论了结果异同的原因.     

STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE ON THE RECURRENCE BEHAVIOR OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKE ON ACTIVE FAULT-TAKING THE MIDDLE-NORTH SECTION OF XIANSHUIHE FAULT AS AN EXAMPLE

It is of great significance to determine the factors and causes that affect the recurrence of major earthquakes. This paper introduces the influence of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes according to elastic rebound theory, and then proposes to calculate the impact time Δt respectively from the effect of strong earthquakes on the same and surrounding faults on the major earthquake recurrence by using seismic moment release rate method and Coulomb stress change. In this paper, we studied the change amount of major earthquake recurrence by taking four earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.5 occurring at different fracture sections of the Xianshuhe fault zone as an example, they occurred on Daofu, Changcu, Zhuwo Fault, respectively. We used seismic moment rate method to calculate the impact time Δt of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes on the Daofu-Qianning Fault. We further discussed the effect of the Coulomb stress change due to the interaction between faults on the recurrence of subsequent major earthquakes. The co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress changes caused by strong earthquake on the surrounding faults on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault are calculated. With the fault interaction considered, the importance of the interaction between faults in the middle-north section of the Xianshuihe fault zone to change the recurrence of large earthquakes is retested and evaluated. The results indicate that the two strong earthquakes occurring along Xianshuihe Fault in 1904(M=7.0) and 1981(M=6.9) resulted in a delay of 80 years and 45 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Daofu-Qianning Fault respectively, and the M7.3 earthquake in 1923 and the M6.8 earthquake in 1967 resulted in an advance of 35 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault.     

川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究

以川滇活动地块东边界为例,利用最近31年的地震资料,根据精细b值计算结果,研究该边界断裂带的应力空间分布及其强震危险性. 研究结果显示：（1）沿川滇活动地块东边界,b值空间分布显示在不同断裂以及同一断裂不同断裂段存在较大差异,从而反映出应力积累水平的空间差异.（2）小江断裂带主干断裂上的嵩明凹凸体及存在于主干断裂附近巧家与东川间以及嵩明北西的2个凹凸体、存在于安宁河断裂冕宁附近和则木河断裂西昌附近的凹凸体以及位于鲜水河断裂中南段道孚—乾宁间大尺度的凹凸体将是川滇活动地块东边界未来大震或强震的震源区.     

川滇菱形块体东边界断层闭锁程度与滑动亏损动态特征研究

利用1999—2007期和2009—2013期中国大陆GPS速度场数据,采用DEFNODE负位错反演程序估算了川滇菱形块体东边界——鲜水河—安宁河—则木河—小江断裂带在汶川地震前后的断层闭锁程度和滑动亏损空间分布动态变化特征,讨论了汶川地震对该断裂系统的影响范围和程度,并结合b值空间分布和地震破裂时-空结果分析了断裂系统的强震危险段.结果表明,汶川地震前鲜水河断裂最南端为完全闭锁(闭锁深度25km),中南段地表以下10~15km深度为强闭锁状态,中北段基本处于蠕滑状态;安宁河断裂最南端闭锁很弱,其余位置闭锁深度为10~15km;则木河断裂除最南端闭锁较弱以外,其余位置基本为完全闭锁;小江断裂在巧家以南、东川以南、宜良附近、华宁以北等四处位置闭锁较弱,其余位置为强闭锁.10年尺度的GPS速度场反演所得断层闭锁程度所指示的强震危险段,主要为鲜水河断裂道孚—八美段、安宁河断裂中段、则木河断裂中北段、小江断裂北段东川附近、小江断裂南段华宁—建水段,该结果与地质尺度的断层地震空区和30年尺度的b值空间分布所指示的危险段落具有一致性.汶川地震后断裂带远、近场速度分布和块体运动状态发生变化,这种区域地壳运动调整使得负位错模型反演得到的断裂带闭锁情况发生一定变化.汶川地震前后川滇菱形块体东边界平行断层滑动亏损速率均为左旋走滑亏损,且在安宁河断裂北端、则木河断裂中北段滑动亏损速率最大;除鲜水河断裂中南段与最南端和小江断裂东川附近以外,其余断裂震后滑动亏损速率均有所增加.垂直断层滑动亏损速率既有拉张亏损也有挤压亏损,且鲜水河断裂最南端由震前挤压转变为震后拉张,其余断裂除了安宁河断裂和小江断裂中段与最北端存在挤压滑动亏损速率外均为拉张速率.     

安宁河断层地震成核条件研究——来自天然花岗岩断层泥摩擦实验的启示

安宁河断层历史上发生过多次强震,现存的地震空区反映了其断层中部近30年来的断层闭锁和应变积累情况,是潜在的大地震危险区.本研究采用断层带内的新鲜花岗岩断层泥样品,在水热条件下开展了摩擦滑动实验,以研究安宁河断层摩擦特性和地震成核条件.实验有效正应力200MPa,孔隙水压30 MPa,温度25～600℃,剪切滑移速率在1...     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.     

基于时-空ETAS模型给出的川滇地区背景地震活动和强震潜在危险区

利用基于时-空传染型余震序列（Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence, 简称ETAS）模型的随机除丛法,重新审视了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震前可能存在的长期地震活动异常,研究了川滇地区背景地震活动特征,并评估了当前的强震危险状态.对川滇地区1970年以来的M_L3.0以上的背景地震和丛集地震活动的研究结果表明,该地区地震丛集特征明显、时空分布很不均匀、地震序列常有前震事件.直接将概率值作为地震计数的权重,对地震丛集率空间分布图像分析表明,汶川M_S8.0地震前,龙门山断裂带中南段存在着长期、大范围的地震丛集率低值区,震前该段处于应力闭锁状态.对川滇地区地震丛集率低值区内背景地震与全部地震的累积次数、b值和新定义的Δb等统计参量的分析表明,龙日坝与龙门山断裂带具有地震活动的关联性,川滇地区当前的强震潜在危险区可能是巧家地区和汶川M_S8.0地震破裂尚未穿越的龙门山断裂带南段.此外,还发现b值倾向于反映局部应力场变化,而Δb能较为敏感地给出更大范围应力场的相对变化.     

RUPTURE CHARACTERISTICS OF LATE QUATERNARY STRONG EARTHQUAKES ON THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE XIAOJIANG FAULT ZONE

The Xiaojiang fault zone is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, the boundary faults of Sichuan-Yunnan block and South China block. The largest historical earthquake in Yunnan Province, with magnitude 8 occurred on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault in Songming County, 1833. Research on the Late Quaternary surface deformation and strong earthquake rupture behavior on the Xiaojiang Fault is crucial to understand the future seismic risk of the fault zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan region, even crucial for the study of tectonic evolution of the southeastern margin of Tibetan plateau. We have some new understanding through several large trenches excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang fault zone. We excavated a large trench at Caohaizi and identified six paleoseismic events, named U through Z from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of these six events are constrained at 40000-36300BC, 35400-24800BC, 9500BC-500AD, 390-720AD, 1120-1620AD and 1750AD-present. The Ganhaizi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named GHZ-E1 to GHZ-E3 from the oldest to the youngest. Ages of the three events are constrained at 3300BC-400AD, 770-1120AD, 1460AD-present. The Dafendi trench revealed three paleoearthquakes, named E1 to E3 from the oldest to the youngest, and their ages are constrained at 22300-19600BC, 18820-18400BC, and 18250-present. Caohaizi and Ganhaizi trenches are excavated on the western branch of the Xiaojiang Fault, the distance between them is 400m. We constrained four late Holocene paleoearthquakes with progressive constraining method, which are respectively at 500-720AD, 770-1120AD, AD 1460-1620 and 1833AD, with an average recurrence interval of 370~440a. Large earthquake recurrence in the late Holocene is less than the recurrence interval of~900a as proposed in the previous studies. Thus, the seismic hazard on the Xiaojiang Fault should be reevaluated. We excavated a large trench at Dafendi, about 30km away south of Caohaizi trench. Combining with previous paleoseismological research, it is found that the western branch of Xiaojiang Fault was likely to be dominated by segmented rupturing in the period from late of Late Pleistocene to early and middle Holocene, while it was characterized by large earthquakes clustering and whole segment rupturing since late Holocene.     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

以拉张正断层作用为主的京西盆岭活动构造区(112°～116.2°N, 38.3°～41.5°E)自BC231年以来共记载和记录15次M6～7.5地震。 本研究计算每一次强震产生的以及逐次积累的库仑破裂静应力变化, 并分析强震之间的应力触发关系。 结果显示在14次后发的强震中, 有10次发生在先发强震产生的积累库仑破裂静应力变化为正的触发区, 触发率为71%。 所有15次历史强震作用共同引起研究区积累库仑破裂静应力变化的正值区, 主要分布于六棱山北麓断裂中段、 怀涿盆地北缘断裂、 新保安沙城断裂、 桑干河断裂以及蔚县盆地南缘断裂, 并使得这些断裂(段)的强震危险性有所增加, 这可为分析研究区的未来强震危险性提供参考。     

川滇菱形块体东边界地震精定位

选用四川及云南地震台站资料,采用多阶段地震定位法(Hypo2000+Velest+HypoDD),对四川境内川滇菱形块体东边界的道孚南至巧家段2010年1月1日~2014年12月31日7787次地震进行了精定位。精定位后,震源位置精度明显提高,震中分布与地震断裂带线性展布较一致。定位结果显示,鲜水河断裂带东南段地震分布相对密集,鲜水河南段与安宁河断裂带、小金河断裂带及以东的大凉山断裂带交叉区域相对密集。深度剖面图沿活动断裂带地震活动分段活动特征明显,横跨鲜水河、安宁河和大凉山等断裂的剖面呈现出石棉附近多断裂交汇处的断层间复杂的相互作用,地震明显分为深、浅两丛。15~20km深度范围地震非常稀少,这与朱艾斓提出的14~19km塑性流变的层厚和位置较一致。     

青藏高原东北缘主要断裂带的库仑应力演化及其强震危险性

自1920年海原发生M8.5地震以来,青藏高原东北缘接连发生了1927年古浪M8.0地震、1932年昌马M7.6地震等一系列大地震,使其进入了强震活动的丛集期。为了探究青藏高原东北缘这一系列地震间的相互作用及区域地震危险性,建立青藏高原东北缘的三维Maxwell黏弹性有限元模型,模拟了区域自1920年以来17次M6.7以上地震的同震及震后库仑应力演化。结果显示：研究区自1920年海原M8.5大地震之后,后续的16次地震中,有13次地震发生在库仑应力变化为正的区域,说明了地震间的相互作用可能是导致区域地震丛集的主要原因之一。系列地震发生后,阿尔金断裂、柴达木盆地断裂西段、东昆仑断裂中段、鄂拉山断裂北段、共和盆地断裂南段、日月山断裂南段、庄浪河断裂、礼县—罗家堡断裂、成县盆地断裂西段、文县断裂西段、龙首山断裂南段、六盘山断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂东段、海原断裂西段和祁连断裂东段位于库仑应力变化为正的区域,且大部分断裂或断裂段的累积库仑应力变化超过了0.01 MPa,它们未来的地震危险性较高。     

DETERMINATION OF SLIP RATE ON THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE ANNINGHE FAULT

The Anninghe Fault has been suggested as an important segment of the fault system along the eastern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block in the southeastern region of the Tibetan plateau. Reliable determination of the Late Quaternary slip rate on the Anninghe Fault is very helpful and significant for revealing deformation mechanism and kinematic characteristics of the Sichuan-Yunnan faulted block, which further helps us understand fault activity and seismic potential of the region. However, previous studies were focused mainly on the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault, while slip rate on its southern segment has been less studied. Therefore, in this paper, we chose two sites at Dashuigou and Maoheshan on the southern segment of the Anninghe Fault, and used high-resolution images of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)photogrammetry technology, detailed field survey, multiple paleoseismic trenching and radiocarbon dating methods to constrain slip rate on the southern fault segment of the Anninghe Fault. Specifically, we suggest that the slip rate at the Dashuigouo site is narrowly constrained to be~4.4mm/a since about 3^￣￣300a^￣￣BP based on a linear regression calculation method, and speculate that a slip rate of 2.6~5.2mm/a at the Maoheshan site would be highly possible, although we poorly constrained the whole deformation amount of the two branch faults at the Maoheshan site from multiple paleoseismic trenching. The data at the two sites on the southern segment show a consistent slip rate compared with that of the northern segment of the Anninghe Fault. Moreover, considering a similar paleoseismic recurrence interval on the two segments of the Anninghe Fault from previous studies, we further suggest that the fault activity and deformation pattern on the two segments of the Annignhe Fault appears to be well consistent, which is also in agreement with the regional tectonic deformation.     

基于特大地震发生率的川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型

川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据.     

co-seismic coulomb stress changes and its influences on aftershock distribution and surrounding faults caused by 2014 ludian earthquake,yunnan

The studies of earthquake stress transfer and its influence on regional seismicity have found that earthquake occurrences are highly interactive and correlated rather than isolated and random in traditional point in recently years. A lot of phenomena in earthquake observations such as aftershock distribution, stress shadow, earthquake interaction and migration were well explained based on the theory of earthquake stress interaction. It is important that understanding the process of earthquake interaction could give an insight into the physical mechanism of earthquake cycle, and could help us assess the seismic hazard in future.It has long been recognized that regional stress accumulated by tectonic motion is released when earthquake occurs. When earthquakes occur, the accumulated stress does not vanish completely, but is redistributed through the process of stress transfer, and then the redistributed stress may trigger potential earthquakes. The increment of Coulomb failure stress loading in the certain regions may improve the seismic activities. By contrast, the decrement of Coulomb failure stress in the areas of stress shadow where the stress on faults may unload could lead to the decrement of seismic activities.On August 3, 2014, an M_S6.5 earthquake occurred in Zhaotong-Ludian region, Yunnan Province, China, killing and injuring hundreds of people. Therefore, it is critical to outline the areas with potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settlement so as to avoid future disasters. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the co-stress changes caused by the Zhaotong-Ludian earthquakes to discuss its influences on aftershock distribution and surrounding faults. It is shown that the Coulomb stress changes based on the rupture in the NNW direction can explain better the aftershock distribution. It indicates that the NNW direction may represent the real rupture. The aftershocks mainly distribute in the regions with increased stress along main rupture and west to the rupture. In other regions with increased stress, the distributions of aftershock are rare which may indicate the low tectonic stress accumulation in these regions. The stress accumulation and corresponding seismic hazard on the southern part of Zhaotong Fault, Qiaojia segment of Zemuhe-Xiaojiang Fault and northeastern part of Lianfeng Fault are further increased by the Zhaotong-Ludian earthquake. We should pay special attention to the southern part of Zhaotong Fault where seismic activity is very high in recently years and the increment of Coulomb failure stress in this area is more than 0.1bar(0.1bar is the threshold of earthquake triggering). In order to make a more objective and comprehensive discussion, we calculate the sensitivity of the parameters such as effective coefficient of friction, the calculated depth and multilayered crustal model.